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Salfino: Jets face tough decisions in draft
Will Gang Green trade its picks or try its luck in the first round?
By Michael Salfino / SNY.tv
http://web.sny.tv/news/article.jsp?ymd=20090424&content_id=1499716&vkey=1
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Should the Commanders draft USC's Mark Sanchez, look for Jason Campbell to hit the trade market in a hurry. (AP)
Continuing our local NFL Draft coverage, let's turn to the Jets, who have all kinds of interesting rumors circulating that serve to help us illustrate some common snafus.
Trade a first- and third-round pick for Anquan Boldin? Trade up into the top eight for USC quarterback Mark Sanchez? Trade up for Kansas State quarterback Josh Freeman? Failing all that, trade for Commanders quarterback Jason Campbell? Let's assess them all before stepping up to make some strictly need-based recommendations.
Serious fans almost uniformly decry trading draft picks for actual NFL-proven talent like Boldin. But you have about a 40-percent chance on hitting with the 17th pick and at best a 20-percent chance on hitting with the third rounder. That's a 60-percent likelihood of landing a good player with both of those picks versus 100 percent of Boldin. Yes, those guys would be a lot cheaper -- important when considering the salary cap, if not Woody Johnson's checkbook. And Boldin will be 29 and may only have three years left at the top of his game. But the Jets are built to win now. So, strictly on a value basis, you have to do the trade.
Yes, you build in the NFL through the draft. But the good teams hit on players all through the draft. And it's not like the Jets would be missing with these picks; they'd be getting Boldin.
Of course, getting Boldin is of questionable value when he'll be playing his peak years with completely unproven players at quarterback. Bizarrely, this is rarely cited as the reason for not making this trade. Draft picks represent unlimited potential and are hyped endlessly by months-long NFL Draft coverage that tends to ignore completely the guesswork involved in projecting amateur talent to the professional ranks.
I'm very encouraged by how badly the Jets think they need a quarterback. Last year, they were killed by net interceptions, each one of which in the minus column costs you approximately six points on average over many years of regression analysis. The Jets led the NFL in picks and were minus-9, which is minus-54 points on the scoreboard and thus absolutely crippling. And they didn't make big plays, either, averaging just 6.24 yards per completion (sack-adjusted), which was 21st in the league.
Of all the draft-day options reportedly on the table, the soundest is trading for Campbell, who has performed as well as Eli Manning (80.4 career quarterback rating to 76.1 for Manning) and who has a stronger case for growth given that he's started 37 fewer games. Getting the strong-armed and athletic-enough Campbell for a second-round pick would be a certifiable steal. I could even live with a future No. 1, which I doubt the 'Skins would make the Jets pay.
Trading up big never works. It's fallen out of favor because the accepted system for valuing draft picks is completely out of whack given what the picks have proven to be really worth. And it looks like you'll need a move into about the top eight to land Sanchez. Sanchez may be great, but Matt Leinart was just as certain a bet according to talent evaluators, and he's about halfway out the NFL door headed into Total Bustville.
If you're going to bank on a rookie, just wait for Freeman. There is talk that Freeman may also be gone by the time the Jets pick. But three quarterbacks have been taken by the 17th pick three times in the last 20 years. The smart money is that one or two of them really slide. If the Jets trade up for Freeman, they will have been snookered, because there's an 85-percent chance that Freeman is there if they wait. And I don't care how Freeman actually turns out. The idea that everyone is thinking what you think about players and thus is targeting whom you're targeting is a general manager fallacy predicated on the complete faith that they have in their player-picking skills.
There's some chance that the Jets may like their quarterbacks (Kellen Clemens and Brett Ratliff, who may be good even though we've seen no proof that they are) and take a wide receiver in the draft. The consensus is that this is a deep wide receiver crop. But I don't see enough speed, which the Jets desperately need at the position. Darrius Heyward-Bey of Maryland is the best fit there. But he's tested so well, it's unlikely he lasts. Florida's Louis Murphy has good height and speed, but a skinny frame and comes from a program that teams have soured on when it comes to receivers. Murphy could be a middle-round steal.
The defense has been well fortified. There are no glaring needs on offense except for the one at the all-important quarterback position. Some are speculating that the Jets will draft a running back early to replace Thomas Jones. But Jones should be replaced anyway by the team's MVP the last two years and their most explosive player, Leon Washington. If Jones doesn't want to be spotted for 15-to-20 carries, hopefully when the Jets are trying to kill the clock late, find another guy in the middle rounds who has some speed and between-the-tackle ability. Running backs in the draft are a dime a dozen.
D'Brickashaw Ferguson is a weak link and borderline bust and there are plenty of tackles in this draft. But Mike Tannenbaum will never admit that that was a mistake by drafting a replacement early. I'd like one by Round 4, though, with some run-blocking potential.
Vernon Gholston may definitely be a bust and the Jets should insure against that by grabbing an edge rusher somewhere. Lawrence Sidbury Jr. of Richmond seems to fit the profile and should be available in the second round and perhaps even the third. If he's not there, odds are Michael Johnson of Georgia Tech will be. Either will do as speculative plays, which is all you'll get this weekend.
Michael Salfino is a a nationally syndicated columnist and a regular contributor to SNY.tv.
Will Gang Green trade its picks or try its luck in the first round?
By Michael Salfino / SNY.tv
http://web.sny.tv/news/article.jsp?ymd=20090424&content_id=1499716&vkey=1
Buzz up!print email
Should the Commanders draft USC's Mark Sanchez, look for Jason Campbell to hit the trade market in a hurry. (AP)
Continuing our local NFL Draft coverage, let's turn to the Jets, who have all kinds of interesting rumors circulating that serve to help us illustrate some common snafus.
Trade a first- and third-round pick for Anquan Boldin? Trade up into the top eight for USC quarterback Mark Sanchez? Trade up for Kansas State quarterback Josh Freeman? Failing all that, trade for Commanders quarterback Jason Campbell? Let's assess them all before stepping up to make some strictly need-based recommendations.
Serious fans almost uniformly decry trading draft picks for actual NFL-proven talent like Boldin. But you have about a 40-percent chance on hitting with the 17th pick and at best a 20-percent chance on hitting with the third rounder. That's a 60-percent likelihood of landing a good player with both of those picks versus 100 percent of Boldin. Yes, those guys would be a lot cheaper -- important when considering the salary cap, if not Woody Johnson's checkbook. And Boldin will be 29 and may only have three years left at the top of his game. But the Jets are built to win now. So, strictly on a value basis, you have to do the trade.
Yes, you build in the NFL through the draft. But the good teams hit on players all through the draft. And it's not like the Jets would be missing with these picks; they'd be getting Boldin.
Of course, getting Boldin is of questionable value when he'll be playing his peak years with completely unproven players at quarterback. Bizarrely, this is rarely cited as the reason for not making this trade. Draft picks represent unlimited potential and are hyped endlessly by months-long NFL Draft coverage that tends to ignore completely the guesswork involved in projecting amateur talent to the professional ranks.
I'm very encouraged by how badly the Jets think they need a quarterback. Last year, they were killed by net interceptions, each one of which in the minus column costs you approximately six points on average over many years of regression analysis. The Jets led the NFL in picks and were minus-9, which is minus-54 points on the scoreboard and thus absolutely crippling. And they didn't make big plays, either, averaging just 6.24 yards per completion (sack-adjusted), which was 21st in the league.
Of all the draft-day options reportedly on the table, the soundest is trading for Campbell, who has performed as well as Eli Manning (80.4 career quarterback rating to 76.1 for Manning) and who has a stronger case for growth given that he's started 37 fewer games. Getting the strong-armed and athletic-enough Campbell for a second-round pick would be a certifiable steal. I could even live with a future No. 1, which I doubt the 'Skins would make the Jets pay.
Trading up big never works. It's fallen out of favor because the accepted system for valuing draft picks is completely out of whack given what the picks have proven to be really worth. And it looks like you'll need a move into about the top eight to land Sanchez. Sanchez may be great, but Matt Leinart was just as certain a bet according to talent evaluators, and he's about halfway out the NFL door headed into Total Bustville.
If you're going to bank on a rookie, just wait for Freeman. There is talk that Freeman may also be gone by the time the Jets pick. But three quarterbacks have been taken by the 17th pick three times in the last 20 years. The smart money is that one or two of them really slide. If the Jets trade up for Freeman, they will have been snookered, because there's an 85-percent chance that Freeman is there if they wait. And I don't care how Freeman actually turns out. The idea that everyone is thinking what you think about players and thus is targeting whom you're targeting is a general manager fallacy predicated on the complete faith that they have in their player-picking skills.
There's some chance that the Jets may like their quarterbacks (Kellen Clemens and Brett Ratliff, who may be good even though we've seen no proof that they are) and take a wide receiver in the draft. The consensus is that this is a deep wide receiver crop. But I don't see enough speed, which the Jets desperately need at the position. Darrius Heyward-Bey of Maryland is the best fit there. But he's tested so well, it's unlikely he lasts. Florida's Louis Murphy has good height and speed, but a skinny frame and comes from a program that teams have soured on when it comes to receivers. Murphy could be a middle-round steal.
The defense has been well fortified. There are no glaring needs on offense except for the one at the all-important quarterback position. Some are speculating that the Jets will draft a running back early to replace Thomas Jones. But Jones should be replaced anyway by the team's MVP the last two years and their most explosive player, Leon Washington. If Jones doesn't want to be spotted for 15-to-20 carries, hopefully when the Jets are trying to kill the clock late, find another guy in the middle rounds who has some speed and between-the-tackle ability. Running backs in the draft are a dime a dozen.
D'Brickashaw Ferguson is a weak link and borderline bust and there are plenty of tackles in this draft. But Mike Tannenbaum will never admit that that was a mistake by drafting a replacement early. I'd like one by Round 4, though, with some run-blocking potential.
Vernon Gholston may definitely be a bust and the Jets should insure against that by grabbing an edge rusher somewhere. Lawrence Sidbury Jr. of Richmond seems to fit the profile and should be available in the second round and perhaps even the third. If he's not there, odds are Michael Johnson of Georgia Tech will be. Either will do as speculative plays, which is all you'll get this weekend.
Michael Salfino is a a nationally syndicated columnist and a regular contributor to SNY.tv.