Scenario. 4th & 2. Quarterback Throws a Low Percentage Pass. Is The Pass a Dumb Throw?

[DallasEast]

Below are three in-game situations. All three quarterbacks are faced with a 4th-and-2 scenario. All three quarterbacks have multiple receiving options in order to convert the down. All three scenarios involve several players running short routes and at least one player running a deep route. All three passes were between 25- and 27-yards in length when the pass reached each player.

Question: Would you describe one or more of these actual passes as a 'dumb throw' in your opinion?

2008 Regular Season, Week 3, Jacksonville Jaguars/Indianapolis Colts, 4th Quarter, 2:00 minutes left in regulation
Quarterback: Peyton Manning
Deep Route Receiving Option: Marvin Harrison

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2014 NFC Wild Card Round, San Francisco 49ers/Green Bay Packers, 4th Quarter, 13:28 minutes left in regulation
Quarterback: Aaron Rodgers
Deep Route Receiving Option: Randall Cobb

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2017 Regular Season, Week 10, Washington/Minnesota Vikings, 1st Quarter, 1:14 minutes left in the quarter
Quarterback: Kirk Cousins
Deep Route Receiving Option: Chris Thompson

 

[Motorola]

No dumb throws...because in each case the receiver got behind the defender, so the quarterback placed the ball appropriately.

a) It appears Harrison faked a slant route and the CB bit on it just enough for WR to get back outside and be open for Manning to throw to the outside\sideline.

b) Can't see it in the frame, but the 49ers defender probably had Cobb covered initially, but when Rodgers broke out of the collapsed pocket and ran upfield, said defender hesitated while the WR kept going downfield.

C) savvy lineup plus route-running by the Vikings WRs -- got Thompson isolated on a linebacker - Cousins lobby it up and outside.

 

[DallasEast]

No dumb throws...because in each case the receiver got behind the defender, so the quarterback placed the ball appropriately.

a) It appears Harrison faked a slant route and the CB bit on it just enough for WR to get back outside and be open for Manning to throw to the outside\sideline.

b) Can't see it in the frame, but the 49ers defender probably had Cobb covered initially, but when Rodgers broke out of the collapsed pocket and ran upfield, said defender hesitated while the WR kept going downfield.

C) savvy lineup plus route-running by the Vikings WRs -- got Thompson isolated on a linebacker - Cousins lobby it up and outside.

A question. Just for clarification sake. Would you say any quarterback, who has:

1. thrown a deep pass
2. on 4th-and-2
3. that an NFL professional receiver is completely capable of catching
4. that the defender is incapable of breaking up and
5. having other receivers running shorter routes beyond the line of scrimmage

--cannot be defined as a dumb throw in your opinion?

 

[Motorola]

A question. Just for clarification sake. Would you say any quarterback, who has:

1. thrown a deep pass
2. on 4th-and-2
3. that an NFL professional receiver is completely capable of catching
4. that the defender is incapable of breaking up and
5. having other receivers running shorter routes beyond the line of scrimmage

--cannot be defined as a dumb throw in your opinion?

Any quarterback facing
a. [2] 4th & 2 -with a pass play called with no run fake / option, would -

b. look for [5], or do [1] -- especially if [3] and [4] happen on either option, whichever one develops or he sees first.

c. Even if the deep pass was incomplete due to poor execution - receiver drops the ball or the quarterback misses badly - I can't label it a dumb throw - it was just a poor pass.
However - some fans would call it a dumb throw because it wasn't completed.

 

[DallasEast]

Any quarterback facing
a. [2] 4th & 2 -with a pass play called with no run fake / option, would -

b. look for [5], or do [1] -- especially if [3] and [4] happen on either option, whichever one develops or he sees first.

c. Even if the deep pass was incomplete due to poor execution - receiver drops the ball or the quarterback misses badly - I can't label it a dumb throw - it was just a poor pass.
However - some fans would call it a dumb throw because it wasn't completed.

Bold> I agree. It is why I have emphasized for decades the difference in the responsibilities of a quarterback and the intended player of a well-thrown pass--especially at the professional level.

It is the quarterback's responsibility to throw catchable passes. The quarterback has failed his responsibility if he throws a pass that no one can humanly catch. Likewise, the quarterback fails when the receiver runs a correct route and the defender knocks down or intercepts the ball. Defenders and their coordinators are paid to make plays but the quarterback is paid to overcome that obstacle--no matter if the actual game situation is impossible to overcome.

It is the receiving player's responsibility--wide receiver, tight end, running back, heck, occasionally the quarterback himself--to secure an unobstructed pass that is catchable. Rain. Wind. Snow. Leap. Dive. Hands only. Body catch. Does not matter. Additionally, the receiver must fight AND win against the defender if the defender contests the receiving attempt. That is what they are paid to do. And the quarterback is not responsible for drops that the receiver could have humanly secured.

That is football.

 

[Motorola]

Bold> I agree. It is why I have emphasized for decades the difference in the responsibilities of a quarterback and the intended player of a well-thrown pass--especially at the professional level.

It is the quarterback's responsibility to throw catchable passes. The quarterback has failed his responsibility if he throws a pass that no one can humanly catch. Likewise, the quarterback fails when the receiver runs a correct route and the defender knocks down or intercepts the ball. Defenders and their coordinators are paid to make plays but the quarterback is paid to overcome that obstacle--no matter if the actual game situation is impossible to overcome.

It is the receiving player's responsibility--wide receiver, tight end, running back, heck, occasionally the quarterback himself--to secure an unobstructed pass that is catchable. Rain. Wind. Snow. Leap. Dive. Hands only. Body catch. Does not matter. Additionally, the receiver must fight AND win against the defender if the defender contests the receiving attempt. That is what they are paid to do. And the quarterback is not responsible for drops that the receiver could have humanly secured.

That is football.

I concur 1000% ..and never screwing up the basics:
○ LOS - lining up onsides, or off the LOS when in the slot
○ NEVER jump offsides -- look at the ball being snapped
○ not confused about the formation
○ going in motion pre-snap have precise procedure and timing
○ approach to the line, body language, stance - all should never tip the defender off that
a) It is pass or run play (if the down and distance doesn't dictate it)
b) the run play is coming in that direction
c) the pass play is - or is not -coming to the receiver

 

[DallasEast]

○ LOS - lining up onsides, or off the LOS when in the slot
○ NEVER jump offsides -- look at the ball being snapped

Those are two that always grinds my gears, ESPECIALLY for defensive tackles lined up over or nearest to the ball.

 

[Motorola]

Those are two that always grinds my gears, ESPECIALLY for defensive tackles lined up over or nearest to the ball.

DallasEast - enjoyed the exercise.
Got me to changing up how I will comment on Cowboys games this season.
I rarely jumped into the game threads before..too distracting from viewing local broadcasts of games on TV plus streaming the Red Zone.
But I would participate in post-game discussions this season if it's about football only - a particular play, series, player performance, coaching decisions, the game overall ---BUT NOT--- banal ranting reactions that are just basically insults toward the team on all levels (players, coaching staff, front offece-ownership).

 

[Flamma]

A question. Just for clarification sake. Would you say any quarterback, who has:

1. thrown a deep pass
2. on 4th-and-2
3. that an NFL professional receiver is completely capable of catching
4. that the defender is incapable of breaking up and
5. having other receivers running shorter routes beyond the line of scrimmage

--cannot be defined as a dumb throw in your opinion?

I can't call any of those passes dumb because the plays were there to be made. Just because a QB or WR might not execute the play doesn't make it dumb. But you can call it ill advised if you're taking an unnecessary risk. For example, I think Rodgers easily runs for that first down. Why take any risk throwing it downfield?

 

[DallasEast]

I can't call any of those passes dumb because the plays were there to be made. Just because a QB or WR might not execute the play doesn't make it dumb. But you can call it ill advised if you're taking an unnecessary risk. For example, I think Rodgers easily runs for that first down. Why take any risk throwing it downfield?

That is a very good opinion about risk. There is a higher percentage outcome Aaron Rodgers scrambles and converts the down as you indicated.

Notice tight end Andrew Quarless running the shallow cross. Tramaine Brock defends the flat when Quarless enters it. Brock sees Rodgers scramble and breaks off Quarless before the throw. Brock must have been reading Rodgers' eyes focused downfield.

I am just adding this observation because, in addition to Rodgers running for the first down, he could have easily flipped the ball to Quarless in the flat after Brock committed to assisting against Randall Cobb running the deep route. Quarless was left wide open for a higher percentage throw.

 

[csirl]

The circumstances are key i.e. score and time.

 

[Vtwin]

This is a good example of how statistical calculations of low vs high percentage leave out a lot of important factors. By the numbers, a 27 yard pass on 4th and 2 likely calculates to a low percentage opportunity, but all that goes out the window when the ball is snapped and players start making plays. If the receiver has his guy beat and the QB has time the probability of success obviously goes up.

Of course we Cowboy's fans have our own painful memories of a 4th and 2 pass, that fit all the criteria, but didn't end so well. I didn't view that pass a dumb throw either.

 

[thunderpimp91]

Not dumb at all. The high percentage passes are not as high percentage on 4th and short when defenses are playing tight man coverage. These situations are likely to give you 1v1 matchups outside the hash marks. If you see a matchup you like I don't fault a QB at all for taking it. This is just a matter of having a high football IQ quarterback who can see these matchups pre snap and exploit them.