Seeding and success in the playoffs

[jobberone]

Tough Odds Since the Wild Card System began in 1970, Ten wild card teams have to the Super Bowl as a WC team in the last 45 years. 6 won the SB with 4 winning by playing all games on the road. So it's a tough haul to get to the SB and less than 10% won it on the road. This reinforces the perception having to play on the road in the playoffs is difficult.

Since the merger 22 NFC top seeds made it to the SB and 20 AFC top seeds. Only 6 AFC top seeds have won the SB. Hmmm.

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NFL teams fight all season to sew up home-field advantage in the playoffs. This year, the Atlanta Falcons and Denver Broncos earned the No. 1 seeds in the NFC and AFC, respectively.

But that doesn’t guarantee a Falcons-Broncos matchup in Super Bowl XLVII on Feb. 3. Far from it, in fact. Because, especially in recent seasons, home-field advantage has been negligible, at best.

Check out our infographic, which analyzes the success (or lack thereof) of No. 1 seeds -- and all NFL playoff seeds -- since 1975:

The NFL began awarding home-field advantage throughout the playoffs to each conference’s top team in 1975 -- before that, the sites of the conference championship games were based on a predetermined rotation, the same way Major League Baseball used to award home-field advantage in the World Series. (Yes, that’s right; the undefeated 1972 Dolphins had to play the AFC Championship Game at Pittsburgh because it wasn’t the AFC East’s turn to host. You think that had something to do with the rule changing?)

Thus, we’ve had 37 years of the NFL paving a path to the Super Bowl through the No. 1 seeds’ stadiums. How much of an advantage has that been? The results might surprise you:

• 20 of the 74 No. 1 seeds have won the Super Bowl -- 14 from the NFC, 6 from the AFC

• 20 No. 1 seeds have lost the Super Bowl -- 7 NFC, 13 AFC

• 14 No. 1 seeds have lost the conference championship game -- 8 NFC, 6 AFC

• 20 No. 1 seeds have lost their first playoff game -- 8 NFC, 12 AFC

That’s right -- in the past 37 years, winning the Super Bowl or losing your first playoff game has been a 50/50 proposition for a No. 1 seed.

Of course, home-field advantage can only help a team get to the Super Bowl, not win it, so the most valid measurement of its significance is that 40 of 74 No. 1 seeds have won their conference and advanced to play for the Vince Lombardi Trophy. That’s a tick above 54 percent -- decent odds, but certainly no guarantee.

Other findings of note:

• Since 2000, only two No. 1 seeds have won the Super Bowl -- the 2009 Saints and the 2003 Patriots.
In that same span, four No. 2 seeds, one No. 3 seed, two No. 4 seeds, one No. 5 seed and two No. 6 seeds have won the Super Bowl.

• In the first 12 years of the “home-field era” (post-1974), 10 No. 1 seeds won the Super Bowl.

• From 1984 to '96, when the NFC won 13 straight Super Bowls, nine of the champions began the playoffs as the No. 1 seed.

• Besides the 20 No. 1 seeds to win the Lombardi Trophy, the other 17 winners break down as follows: eight No. 2 seeds, two No. 3 seeds, four No. 4 seeds, one No. 5 seeds and two No. 6 seeds.

• The 1980 Raiders were the first wild-card team (a No. 4 seed at that time) to win the Super Bowl.

• The 1985 Patriots were the first team to reach the Super Bowl as a No. 5 seed, meaning they had to win three road playoff games.

• The only two No. 6 seeds ever to reach the Super Bowl -- the 2005 Steelers and 2010 Packers -- both won the Vince Lombardi Trophy.

Last infographics thru Jan 2013 by:

http://espn.go.com/blog/playbook/visuals/post/_/id/10921/graphic-which-nfl-playoff-seeds-succeed

 

[jobberone]

Since there is quite a fan conundrum about playing this week all out with all hands on deck, I thought I post some info about seeding and success. Enjoy.

 

[jobberone]

There appears to be at least two mistakes in the infographic above. There are only five Steelers SB victories and four Cowboys' SB victories.

I'm not taking it down as there is a lot of correct info there but please point out any further errors while I look for some better information without errors. Thanks.

 

[jobberone]

The playoff seeding and results for the 22 seasons since the NFL moved to a 12 team playoff system to help answer these questions. While there was a switch from 3 division winners to 4 division winners in 2002, the basic playoff structure has remained the same since 1990. The 6 playoff teams in each conference (the AFC and the NFC) are seeded 1 through 6, ostensibly the best through the worst, with seeds 3 through 6 playing in a Wildcard round. The winners of the Wildcard round play seeds 1 and 2 in the Divisional Round. The Divisional winners subsequently play in a Conference championship game, which determines the team from the AFC and the team from the NFC that will meet in the Superbowl.

The NFL playoff system is structured to give multiple advantages to the higher seeded teams. Advantages include automatic advancement of the top two seeds past the Wildcard round, home field advantage for the higher seeded team in each round, and the highest seeded teams getting to play against the lowest seeded/not-as-challenging teams. I will look at how well teams at various seeding levels have done historically.

A preview: about two-thirds of all Superbowl winners since 1990 have been 1 or 2 seeds, and only one three-seed and one five-seed have won the Superbowl in that time period. Top-seeded teams have won 9 Superbowls (41%), two-seeds 6 (27%), and there have been 7 Superbowl wins for all of the other seeds combined.

The relationship between playoff advancement and seed

The following chart looks at the highest round reached by teams from each of the six NFL playoff seeds since 1990. It reflects 44 teams in each seeding level, 1 in each of the AFC and NFC, for each of the 22 seasons from 1990-2011.

The number and percentage in each position represents the number of teams with a particular seed that were eliminated in the row's playoff round—the Championship line implies a Superbowl win.

Let's look individually at the seeds, starting with the top-seed. There is a fairly even distribution among the elimination rounds for the one-seeds since 1990. Thirty percent were eliminated in the Divisional round, 23 percent in the Conference final, and 27 percent made it to the Superbowl, but then lost. Twenty percent, or 9 teams made it to Superbowl and won in these 22 playoff seasons.

Of the 44 second seeds, 75% were eliminated in the Divisional or Conference rounds, compared to only 53% of the top seeded teams. The second seeds have faired particularly badly in the Conference championship round with 22 teams being eliminated, more than twice as many as the 10 one-seeds. One possible explanation could be the home-field of advantage enjoyed throughout the playoffs by the top-seeded teams.

It is surprising that only one three-seed has won the Superbowl since 1990, the 2006 Indianapolis Colts who defeated the top-seeded Chicago Bears. There has also been only one 5 seed to win the Superbowl during this time period, the 2007 New York Giants who defeated the top-seeded New England Patriots. Every 5 and 6 seed (there were only three) that made it to the Superbowl since 1990 has won the ultimate NFL game. The four-seed has faired particularly well compared to the three-seed with 6 teams making it to the Superbowl and three winning the Championship game.

The Wildcard round is the most brutal. While seeds 1 and 2 automatically advance, a third of the teams are eliminated and the majority of 5 and 6 seeds (68% of 5 seeds and 64% of 6 seeds) have historically been eliminated in that round.

Seeding of the Superbowl Champions

Let's look directly at the seeding of the 22 Superbowl champions since 1990.

The average seed of the Superbowl champions is 2.4 and the median seed is 2. The mode (value that occurs most often) is 1, with 9 of the champions having a top seed, compared 6 second-seeded teams, 1 third-seeded team, 3 four-seeded teams, 1 five seed, and 2 sixth seeds.

A top-seeded team has won the Superbowl 41% of the time, and 1 or 2 seed has won the Championship 68% of the time. Two bottom-seeded teams have won the Superbowl since 1990, the 2005 Pittsburgh Steelers (against the top-seeded Seattle Seahawks) and the 2010 Green Bay Packers (against the second-seeded Pittsburg Steelers).

http://massnumbers.blogspot.com/2013/01/how-important-is-seeding-to-nfl-playoff.html Jan 2013

 

[JBS]

29 times since 1975 the SB was won by a 1 or 2 seed in either conference....this graph is missing last year's seahawks

Dang

On the bright side...7 times since 2000 a 3 seed or lower has won!...this graph is missing the ravens champ from two years ago..they were the 4 seed

Yes! Lol