Slaga's Power Ranking - Week 1

slaga

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As a Commanders fan, I would like to believe that Dallas would really be last but in reality I know that is not the case. Washington was in the bottom 5 all season last year, deservedly so. It is a numerical ranking system where the first 1/2 of the season is compiled thusly. 50% of the total is the teams own winning percentage. 25% is the percentage of past openents. The last 25% is (1-future opponents). Basically 1/2 of the teams score is their own record. Having played tough opponents will boost your numbers. Having weak future opponents will boost you score as well. The opposite holds true too. Beating a "good" team will boost your score and beating a "bad" team will keep the status quo. Getting beat by a "bad" team will drop your score and getting beat by a really "good" team shouldn't hurt your score much. Week 1 is never indicative of where the teams will finish, but you have to start somewhere.

Long story short, Dallas is the team that started off 0-1 and has the most future opponents that won in week 1. I am positive they will be moving up fairly quickly.

Rank --- Week 1 --- Combined Winning %
1 --- Arizona Cardinals --- 66.7%
2 --- Kansas City Chiefs --- 66.7%
3 --- Green Bay Packers --- 65.0%
4 --- New Orleans Saints --- 65.0%
5 --- New England Patriots --- 65.0%
6 --- Chicago Bears --- 63.3%
7 -- Tampa Bay Buccaneers --- 63.3%
8 --- Seattle Seahawks --- 63.3%
9 --- Miami Dolphins --- 63.3%
10 --- Baltimore Ravens --- 63.3%
11 --- Pittsburgh Steelers --- 63.3%
12 --- Jacksonville Jaguars --- 63.3%
13 --- New York Giants --- 61.7%
14 --- Washington Commanders --- 61.7%
15 --- Houston Texans --- 61.7%
16 --- Tennessee Titans --- 60.0%
17 --- St. Louis Rams --- 38.3%
18 --- San Franciso 49ers --- 38.3%
19 --- Cinncinnati Bengals --- 38.3%
20 --- San Diego Chargers --- 38.3%
21 --- Denver Broncos --- 38.3%
22 --- Philadelphia Eagles --- 36.7%
23 --- Detroit Lions --- 36.7%
24 --- Atlanta Falcons --- 36.7%
25 --- New York Jets --- 36.7%
26 --- Oakland Raiders --- 36.7%
27 --- Minnesota Vikings --- 35.0%
28 --- Carolina Panthers --- 35.0%
29 --- Buffalo Bills --- 35.0%
30 --- Cleveland Browns --- 35.0%
31 --- Indiannapolis Colts --- 35.0%
32 --- Dallas Cowboys --- 33.3%


1 AFC South 55.0%
2 NFC West 51.7%
2 NFC North 50.0%
2 NFC South 50.0%
2 AFC East 50.0%
2 AFC North 50.0%
2 NFC East 48.3%
8 AFC West 45.0%
 

slaga

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I realize the ranking is pretty much useless after week 1, but you have to start somewhere. Things start to even out and get less volitile by week 3 or 4.
 

jgboys1

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slaga;3556447 said:
As a Commanders fan, I would like to believe that Dallas would really be last but in reality I know that is not the case. Washington was in the bottom 5 all season last year, deservedly so. It is a numerical ranking system where the first 1/2 of the season is compiled thusly. 50% of the total is the teams own winning percentage. 25% is the percentage of past openents. The last 25% is (1-future opponents). Basically 1/2 of the teams score is their own record. Having played tough opponents will boost your numbers. Having weak future opponents will boost you score as well. The opposite holds true too. Beating a "good" team will boost your score and beating a "bad" team will keep the status quo. Getting beat by a "bad" team will drop your score and getting beat by a really "good" team shouldn't hurt your score much. Week 1 is never indicative of where the teams will finish, but you have to start somewhere.

Long story short, Dallas is the team that started off 0-1 and has the most future opponents that won in week 1. I am positive they will be moving up fairly quickly.

Rank --- Week 1 --- Combined Winning %
1 --- Arizona Cardinals --- 66.7%
2 --- Kansas City Chiefs --- 66.7%
3 --- Green Bay Packers --- 65.0%
4 --- New Orleans Saints --- 65.0%
5 --- New England Patriots --- 65.0%
6 --- Chicago Bears --- 63.3%
7 -- Tampa Bay Buccaneers --- 63.3%
8 --- Seattle Seahawks --- 63.3%
9 --- Miami Dolphins --- 63.3%
10 --- Baltimore Ravens --- 63.3%
11 --- Pittsburgh Steelers --- 63.3%
12 --- Jacksonville Jaguars --- 63.3%
13 --- New York Giants --- 61.7%
14 --- Washington Commanders --- 61.7%
15 --- Houston Texans --- 61.7%
16 --- Tennessee Titans --- 60.0%
17 --- St. Louis Rams --- 38.3%
18 --- San Franciso 49ers --- 38.3%
19 --- Cinncinnati Bengals --- 38.3%
20 --- San Diego Chargers --- 38.3%
21 --- Denver Broncos --- 38.3%
22 --- Philadelphia Eagles --- 36.7%
23 --- Detroit Lions --- 36.7%
24 --- Atlanta Falcons --- 36.7%
25 --- New York Jets --- 36.7%
26 --- Oakland Raiders --- 36.7%
27 --- Minnesota Vikings --- 35.0%
28 --- Carolina Panthers --- 35.0%
29 --- Buffalo Bills --- 35.0%
30 --- Cleveland Browns --- 35.0%
31 --- Indiannapolis Colts --- 35.0%
32 --- Dallas Cowboys --- 33.3%


1 AFC South 55.0%
2 NFC West 51.7%
2 NFC North 50.0%
2 NFC South 50.0%
2 AFC East 50.0%
2 AFC North 50.0%
2 NFC East 48.3%
8 AFC West 45.0%

Well I guess we have no place to go but up.
 

DFWJC

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CowboysZone LOYAL Fan
Cowboys and Colts at the bottom....last time you'll see that this year.
 

slaga

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DFWJC;3556627 said:
Cowboys and Colts at the bottom....last time you'll see that this year.
Exactly. At this point those teams have the same winning percentage (0%) and their past opponents have the same winning percentage (100%). The only difference is their future opponents average winning percentage. Dallas has the most teams left to play that won their 1st game, followed by the Colts, etc. Arizona and Kansas both won their first game and have the easiest schedule (numerically based on winning percentages of future opponents) left to play.
 

Bonecrusher#31

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2 things....

The Colts actually lost to a good team, they don't deserve to be that low.

and why are the Chargers not down at the bottom for losing to a perennial last place team like we did...
 

slaga

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Bonecrusher#31;3556870 said:
2 things....

The Colts actually lost to a good team, they don't deserve to be that low.

and why are the Chargers not down at the bottom for losing to a perennial last place team like we did...
I do not put any of my opinion into this. It is a numbers game. Basically the Colts, Browns, Bills, Panthers and Vikings are all tied for 27th. They all have the same winning percentage (0%), their previously played opponents have the exact same winning percentage (100%) and their future oppponents have the exact same average winning percentage (9/15= 60%). Week 1 does not mean much at all but I have to do this every week because they build on each other from week to week. I have to do the math anyway so I decided to share from week 1 on.
 

slaga

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I went back to edit my post but I was too late so...

The Chargers future opponents are a collective 7-8 (46%) so they are facing an easier schedule than Dallas so they move up. The Chargers are actually tied with the Rams, 49ers, Bengals and Broncos. By week 3 or 4 you start getting elite teams (4-0), bad teams (0-4) and some middling teams. The numbers start to work out much better then.

How teams did last year is irrelevant in this ranking system.
 

Cythim

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The Cowboys are the weakest team beacuase they have the hardest schedule. You ranking system is extremely flawed.
 

slaga

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Cythim;3557133 said:
The Cowboys are the weakest team beacuase they have the hardest schedule. You ranking system is extremely flawed.

I said previously:

slaga;3556952 said:
Week 1 does not mean much at all but I have to do this every week because they build on each other from week to week. I have to do the math anyway so I decided to share from week 1 on.

slaga;3556469 said:
I realize the ranking is pretty much useless after week 1, but you have to start somewhere. Things start to even out and get less volitile by week 3 or 4.

slaga;3556447 said:
... Week 1 is never indicative of where the teams will finish, but you have to start somewhere.

Long story short, Dallas is the team that started off 0-1 and has the most future opponents that won in week 1. I am positive they will be moving up fairly quickly.

slaga;3557079 said:
By week 3 or 4 you start getting elite teams (4-0), bad teams (0-4) and some middling teams. The numbers start to work out much better then.

I guess I was not clear. I never once implied that Dallas was the weakest team nor did I imply the ranking system was "useful" with just 1 weeks worth of games. I was simply explaining the method and did not want to come off as a troll ranking the Cowboys "last". It is no coincidence that the NFC East teams have some of the toughest schedules and all of the NFC East teams are ranked at the low end of their spectrum (winners/losers of week 1). Philly's future opponents have 1 less win then the other 3 in the East. Give it another 2 or 3 weeks and then start bashing all you want.
 
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