Slaga's Power Rankings - Week 4

[slaga]

Below is this weeks power rankings. 50% of the team's % is their own record, 25% is the previous competition's average record and 25% is each team's future opponent's record.

Rank (Last Week) Combined Winning %
1 (3) Kansas City Chiefs 69.3%
2 (1) Pittsburgh Steelers 68.2%
3 (13) Baltimore Ravens 63.7%
4 (4) Atlanta Falcons 62.8%
5 (5) New York Jets 62.8%
6 (2) Chicago Bears 62.2%
7 (9) New England Patriots 61.8%
8 (6) Green Bay Packers 58.9%
9 (11) Houston Texans 57.8%
10 (16) New Orleans Saints 56.4%
11 (15) Tampa Bay Buccaneers 53.6%
12 (20) San Diego Chargers 53.1%
13 (7) Arizona Cardinals 51.9%
14 (26) Washington Commanders 50.9%
15 (12) Indiannapolis Colts 50.3%
16 (25) Jacksonville Jaguars 50.3%
17 (22) St. Louis Rams 50.2%
18 (24) New York Giants 49.5%
19 (14) Philadelphia Eagles 49.0%
20 (17) Miami Dolphins 49.0%
21 (21) Denver Broncos 48.4%
22 (8) Tennessee Titans 48.3%
23 (10) Cinncinnati Bengals 46.5%
24 (18) Seattle Seahawks 46.5%
25 (19) Dallas Cowboys 45.1%
26 (29) Cleveland Browns 41.7%
27 (27) Minnesota Vikings 37.8%
28 (23) Oakland Raiders 37.5%
29 (28) San Franciso 49ers 31.9%
30 (31) Buffalo Bills 28.0%
31 (30) Detroit Lions 26.4%
32 (32) Carolina Panthers 25.7%

Average winning percentage of each team's past opponents:
1 San Franciso 49ers 75.0%
2 Cleveland Browns 72.9%
3 Buffalo Bills 68.8%
4 Dallas Cowboys 66.7%
5 Pittsburgh Steelers 66.7%
6 San Diego Chargers 62.5%
7 Carolina Panthers 60.4%
8 Detroit Lions 58.3%
9 Baltimore Ravens 56.3%
10 Indiannapolis Colts 56.3%
11 Oakland Raiders 56.3%
12 Washington Commanders 52.1%
13 Atlanta Falcons 50.0%
14 Arizona Cardinals 50.0%
15 New York Jets 50.0%
16 Tennessee Titans 50.0%
17 Jacksonville Jaguars 50.0%
18 Denver Broncos 50.0%
19 Miami Dolphins 45.8%
20 New York Giants 43.8%
21 Philadelphia Eagles 43.8%
22 St. Louis Rams 43.8%
23 New England Patriots 43.8%
24 Cinncinnati Bengals 43.8%
25 Minnesota Vikings 41.7%
26 Chicago Bears 39.6%
27 Houston Texans 39.6%
28 Seattle Seahawks 37.5%
29 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 33.3%
30 Green Bay Packers 31.3%
31 New Orleans Saints 27.1%
32 Kansas City Chiefs 25.0%

Average Winning percentage of each team's future opponents:
1 Chicago Bears 41.0%
2 Arizona Cardinals 42.4%
3 St. Louis Rams 43.1%
4 Pittsburgh Steelers 43.8%
5 New York Giants 45.8%
6 Green Bay Packers 45.8%
7 New England Patriots 46.5%
8 San Franciso 49ers 47.2%
9 Philadelphia Eagles 47.9%
10 Kansas City Chiefs 47.9%
11 Washington Commanders 48.6%
12 Atlanta Falcons 48.6%
13 New York Jets 48.6%
14 Jacksonville Jaguars 48.6%
15 San Diego Chargers 50.0%
16 Miami Dolphins 50.0%
17 Baltimore Ravens 51.4%
18 Seattle Seahawks 51.4%
19 New Orleans Saints 51.4%
20 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 52.1%
21 Dallas Cowboys 52.8%
22 Detroit Lions 52.8%
23 Indiannapolis Colts 54.9%
24 Cleveland Browns 56.3%
25 Oakland Raiders 56.3%
26 Denver Broncos 56.3%
27 Buffalo Bills 56.9%
28 Tennessee Titans 56.9%
29 Minnesota Vikings 56.9%
30 Carolina Panthers 57.6%
31 Cinncinnati Bengals 57.6%
32 Houston Texans 58.3%

 

[slaga]

I would just like to add that this is more of a who has the best chance to make the playoffs and make some noise type of ranking as oppoesed to a head to head type of ranking. The teams are ranked by their own win loss / record and how tough their schedules are.

 

[Cythim]

Your system is still flawed, and it has nothing to do with where the NFC East teams are ranked. According to your own statements Kansas City "has the best chance to make the playoffs and make some noise" but we both know that just isn't true.

 

[slaga]

Let me ask you, if the playoffs started right now, where would the Chiefs be seeded? They would make to at least week 2 of the playoffs and a third of the playoff teams would be knocked out before they got to play their first game, at home, right?

The "flaw" is a lack of data, it is too early in the season to get a real good handle on all of the teams. At this point, because the win / loss records of all of the teams are in incraments of 25% or 33%. All of the teams are in bands grouped by their number of wins. As the season goes on, those bands will start to blend more. For the record, in week 3 and 4, the Chiefs were / are the lowest ranked, undefeated team. In week 4 they are almost knocked off (1.1% difference) of the podium by a team that has a winning percentage that is 25% less than the Chiefs, because of the toughness of schedule metric.