CFZ State of the Cowboys week 17

[jterrell]

Dallas should have spent parts of last week preparing for Tampa Bay.
It certainly looked like they did in an uninspiring but workman like 14-point victory.

12-4 is really salty stuff.
Dallas has done jack squat in the playoffs since 1995 but 12 wins gives you a shot this year to change that narrative.
***3 of the 5 Super Bowl trophies were won after 12-win regular seasons.

Dallas has had some solid health this year but it has been tested of late. Losing 2 CBs and now 2 OL is not great. It's not always sheer numbers of injuries but how they deplete a position group that kills you. Thankfully, Dallas seems to have just enough OL to hold on here. But CB is an issue. Nashon Wright is a better player than Kelvin Joseph today, but he is very much system based.
Micah and DLaw are playing injured and hopefully get the week off. Sam, Dorance and Dante should be fins for the Commanders.
This should also be a Cooper Rush week.
Dak tweaked his knee and should also get a week off to just rest up.

As we look at regular season stuff.
The win total and the overall offensive and defensive performances are more than expected.
Dallas schedule turned out to be quite tough. And they still handled it even with Dak out 6 games.
Kudos to the coaching staff and the team for that.

I'd prolly play Pollard this week just long enough to get his 1000-yard rushing season.
I'd play Alan Ball with some rest for Tyron Smith.
I'd sit Zeke so he is fresher for the playoffs.

CeeDee Lamb has had a superb season and they probably let him stat pad.

I'd definitely sit Schultz but that can be political as he is a UFA after the season so likely wants all the stats he can muster.

So.. Tampa:
Tampa has been throwing the ball A LOT.
And Brady is getting solid passing totals but it's a bit of smoke and mirrors.
Mike Evans is a really good WR1 but after that they are hurting at WR.
Chris Godwin is much like Gallup. He is getting a lot of 4 yard routes because they don't trust him to get open down the field.
And there is no major TE component either.
Brady is Brady so he finds guys and is moving the ball via scheme but they aren't scoring it that much.
17.7 points per game is kinda gross.
They have been unable to run it at all.
And the defense has been soft.
Teams are easily outrushing TB.

The reality is Brady curse aside, Dallas couldn't ask for a better road playoff matchup. Great weather and a team with only 1 WR (cover Mike with Diggs obviously) that can't really beat you running it.
Then the Pollard/Zeke combo should be able to run it versus Tampa.
Dallas by 5 will be the spread IMO.

But we got to get to that match up so here's to a week of rest and good vibes as we look at other results around the league.

 

[Teague31]

Dallas should have spent parts of last week preparing for Tampa Bay.
It certainly looked like they did in an uninspiring but workman like 14-point victory.

12-4 is really salty stuff.
Dallas has done jack squat in the playoffs since 1995 but 12 wins gives you a shot this year to change that narrative.
***3 of the 5 Super Bowl trophies were won after 12-win regular seasons.

Dallas has had some solid health this year but it has been tested of late. Losing 2 CBs and now 2 OL is not great. It's not always sheer numbers of injuries but how they deplete a position group that kills you. Thankfully, Dallas seems to have just enough OL to hold on here. But CB is an issue. Nashon Wright is a better player than Kelvin Joseph today, but he is very much system based.
Micah and DLaw are playing injured and hopefully get the week off. Sam, Dorance and Dante should be fins for the Commanders.
This should also be a Cooper Rush week.
Dak tweaked his knee and should also get a week off to just rest up.

As we look at regular season stuff.
The win total and the overall offensive and defensive performances are more than expected.
Dallas schedule turned out to be quite tough. And they still handled it even with Dak out 6 games.
Kudos to the coaching staff and the team for that.

I'd prolly play Pollard this week just long enough to get his 1000-yard rushing season.
I'd play Alan Ball with some rest for Tyron Smith.
I'd sit Zeke so he is fresher for the playoffs.

CeeDee Lamb has had a superb season and they probably let him stat pad.

I'd definitely sit Schultz but that can be political as he is a UFA after the season so likely wants all the stats he can muster.

So.. Tampa:
Tampa has been throwing the ball A LOT.
And Brady is getting solid passing totals but it's a bit of smoke and mirrors.
Mike Evans is a really good WR1 but after that they are hurting at WR.
Chris Godwin is much like Gallup. He is getting a lot of 4 yard routes because they don't trust him to get open down the field.
And there is no major TE component either.
Brady is Brady so he finds guys and is moving the ball via scheme but they aren't scoring it that much.
17.7 points per game is kinda gross.
They have been unable to run it at all.
And the defense has been soft.
Teams are easily outrushing TB.

The reality is Brady curse aside, Dallas couldn't ask for a better road playoff matchup. Great weather and a team with only 1 WR (cover Mike with Diggs obviously) that can't really beat you running it.
Then the Pollard/Zeke combo should be able to run it versus Tampa.
Dallas by 5 will be the spread IMO.

But we got to get to that match up so here's to a week of rest and good vibes as we look at other results around the league.

All well and good until the offense turns it over 4 times and Brady abuses every corner not named bland or diggs

 

[Aven8]

I think we will see like we saw last season against Philly. Starters for awhile only to give way to the backups next week. Having said that if NO and Andy Dalton pulls off the improbable and beats Philly all bets are off!

 

[Creeper]

The state of the Cowboys is concerning right now.

It starts with the injuries. But you have to play with what you got so let's look at what there is on the field today. Assuming Biadasz does make it back for the first playoff game, which I think is wishful thinking at this point, the Cowboys run blocking the last 2 weeks was pretty bad. IMO, they miss Steele on the right side. The pass protection breaks down too often as well. But at least it is passable. The Titans threw a lot of line games at the Cowboys after Biadasz was injured and the Cowboys had problems with it. If the Cowboys can't run the football then they have to rely on Dak to throw it 45 times and that is the recipe for a Dallas loss. Dak is not using his head this year and he is making some bad decisions that have lead to interceptions and negative plays. We need the OL to step it up. If you trust Jason Peters to hold up at LT you need to watch him actually play. He is not the Jason Peters he once was.

Problem number two has surpassed poor run defense and that is pass coverage. It is awful and blaming it on Joseph or Wright alone would be unfair. Wright gave up a lot of completions and guys were getting open on him. He cannot play man coverage because he gives up too much separation. They also have him playing 10 yards off the line probably because they are afraid he will get beat deep. He has made a couple of plays in the running game which is great but he has to be able to cover receivers too. I honestly think he is as bad as Joseph but without the bonehead penalties. One thing I noticed when Joseph is in the game they have him playing right up on the receiver, probably because he has the speed and quickness to keep up. He just doesn't have the football smarts to not fall for the double moves.

I actually think the Cowboys could live with either of these two guys at CB IF, and this is a big IF, Diggs was playing like himself, or like the guy who shut down Justin Jefferson and other top receivers. He is not that guy right now. Now, he is falling for play action and other moves like a rookie. They need the old Diggs back.

Finally, I have to say they need Dak to smarten up. The first INT was not his fault. It was actually a good pass that Hendershot has to catch. The 2nd was all on Dak. Bad throw, bad decision and showed a lack of situational awareness, the same problem he had at the end of the Jags game when he ran out of bounds instead of sliding or cutting back inside. He compounded that mistake on the next play when he took a sack with the two minute warning coming up instead of throwing the ball away. $40 million franchise QBs are not supposed to make stupid mistakes like that. They are supposed to set an example for the rest of the team by being fully aware of the game situation.

I suspect in 2 weeks when the play the Bucs or Panthers they will get LVE and Hankins back, which will help certain aspects of the defense. But they have other problems to resolve.

 

[jterrell]

The Cowboys situation has changed zero from the end of the San Fran game.

They had to come back and make the playoffs then and only then could they silence the critics.
They've done the first part of that assignment with aplomb. They've won 12 games and beaten the good teams on the schedule to boot.
They mortgaged exactly zero future assets to do so as well. They are in fact a very young team that still got 7 Pro Bowlers.
A- regular season for Dallas.

So we shall see how the 2nd season goes.

Specific concerns/takes:

Joseph: Yes, he can play man but not zone and doesn't play the ball in man. Nearly unplayable.
Wright: Can only play Zone because he isn't shifty enough to play man.
Team may have to alternate these guys depending upon opponent and scheme for the week.
What would help both is a healthier pass rush.

Dak: I have zero concerns with Dak. He isn't going to single-handedly beat teams but he is going to produce TDs and yards. He's every bit as good as Matt Stafford who won a super Bowl last year.
Any OL will struggle when you lose 2 guys. Dallas falls back to average with those 2 losses. Hopefully one of them is temporary.
You lost 2 CB for the year so of course you are limited there.

Dallas had zero reason to show anything versus Tennessee and they didn't.
This team crushed Minny and beat Philly so if you are a fan crying about the state of the team, you are very much lost in the sauce.
You've already beaten the 1 and 2 seeds.

At the same time, they can't do a thing with any real meaning until the playoffs start.

 

[Cowboyny]

The state of the Cowboys is concerning right now.

It starts with the injuries. But you have to play with what you got so let's look at what there is on the field today. Assuming Biadasz does make it back for the first playoff game, which I think is wishful thinking at this point, the Cowboys run blocking the last 2 weeks was pretty bad. IMO, they miss Steele on the right side. The pass protection breaks down too often as well. But at least it is passable. The Titans threw a lot of line games at the Cowboys after Biadasz was injured and the Cowboys had problems with it. If the Cowboys can't run the football then they have to rely on Dak to throw it 45 times and that is the recipe for a Dallas loss. Dak is not using his head this year and he is making some bad decisions that have lead to interceptions and negative plays. We need the OL to step it up. If you trust Jason Peters to hold up at LT you need to watch him actually play. He is not the Jason Peters he once was.

Problem number two has surpassed poor run defense and that is pass coverage. It is awful and blaming it on Joseph or Wright alone would be unfair. Wright gave up a lot of completions and guys were getting open on him. He cannot play man coverage because he gives up too much separation. They also have him playing 10 yards off the line probably because they are afraid he will get beat deep. He has made a couple of plays in the running game which is great but he has to be able to cover receivers too. I honestly think he is as bad as Joseph but without the bonehead penalties. One thing I noticed when Joseph is in the game they have him playing right up on the receiver, probably because he has the speed and quickness to keep up. He just doesn't have the football smarts to not fall for the double moves.

I actually think the Cowboys could live with either of these two guys at CB IF, and this is a big IF, Diggs was playing like himself, or like the guy who shut down Justin Jefferson and other top receivers. He is not that guy right now. Now, he is falling for play action and other moves like a rookie. They need the old Diggs back.

Finally, I have to say they need Dak to smarten up. The first INT was not his fault. It was actually a good pass that Hendershot has to catch. The 2nd was all on Dak. Bad throw, bad decision and showed a lack of situational awareness, the same problem he had at the end of the Jags game when he ran out of bounds instead of sliding or cutting back inside. He compounded that mistake on the next play when he took a sack with the two minute warning coming up instead of throwing the ball away. $40 million franchise QBs are not supposed to make stupid mistakes like that. They are supposed to set an example for the rest of the team by being fully aware of the game situation.

I suspect in 2 weeks when the play the Bucs or Panthers they will get LVE and Hankins back, which will help certain aspects of the defense. But they have other problems to resolve.

I wouldn’t worry so much about lack of run game the last 2 weeks as both were daring Dak to beat them, which he did. Titans are an excellent run defense and the Eagles we’re throwing out Joseph, Suh and Davis together on the early downs. Defense is by far more of the concern