News: Sturm: Examining The Low Takeaways and Newbury Theory

[speedkilz88]

Thursday, May 26, 2016



Excerpts here only, have to read the whole article to get the gist. After the astericks is the synopsis.

http://sturminator.blogspot.com/2016/05/examining-low-takeaways-and-newbury.html
or
http://sportsday.***BANNED-URL***/d.../26/bob-sturm-takeaways-sacks-theory-examined

Without question, the top reason the defense gave the entire organization indigestion in 2015 was a lack of taking the ball away.

We all know how closely correlated turnovers are to winning and losing, and when you have arguably the most disappointing season in franchise history (expectations to reality) and you also have the worst takeaway year in the history of the sport, the two things can often be linked together.

This theory actually has been pushed forward by my radio colleague, David Newbury, who loves the sport and looks at stats and film as much as I do. It goes like this:

In 2014, the NFL had 32,784 plays (which tells you that with 32 teams, each defense faces about 1,000 snaps a season). In that total, 19,094 passes occurred which resulted in 450 interceptions and 1,211 sacks if you total up the defensive accomplishments.

But, here is where game theory comes in -- if you divide those 32,784 plays into two categories, you will see the stats begin to tell you a story. The categories are: 1) plays in which the defense is ahead by four points or more and 2) plays in which they are not. If you simply divide it into those two, you see how the game is different for a defense with a lead of more than a field goal.

So, now, look at those 32,784 plays divided into those two categories:

***********

You certainly didn't need an eye-catching graphic to show you that the team was never ahead last season, but if we believe that most interceptions and sacks happen when a team is ahead and the other team has to force the issue with determined passes and the defense not worrying about your running game, then we can quickly see that the Cowboys defense was never in this position -- just 16 percent rather than 49 percent.

We could run the numbers of how this played out -- but given that the Cowboys were never ahead all season long, there is almost no data. The best example was Sam Bradford throwing into the Cowboys secondary in Week 2 and throwing picks. But, those are the only three turnovers the Cowboys got from advantageous spots all season. Five of the 31 sacks came from those small spots, too.

The pass rush actually improved significantly. They had 31 sacks in 506 pass plays this past year -- one sack every 16.3 pass plays. In 2014, it was 28 in 558 -- one sack every 19.9 pass plays. That is a very significant improvement to where they are almost at league average. In 2014, they were not close to the league average, despite being in a spot to get a ton of sacks. But, in 2015, despite being a better pass rush team -- they never were able to force teams to throw.

So, we circle back to the start.

How does the offense help the defense? By getting a lead and forcing other teams to respond. They will still get 60-65 snaps, but if more of them are passes, the turnovers return and the sacks add up if everything else is equal. And that is specifically how this should work.

 

[Alexander]

Good article that rationalized our thought process this offseason.

 

[Ashwynn]

There goes the "good offense to keep the D off the field" theory I myself have espoused. Really good article and it makes a lot of sense. Playing from behind you have to pass a lot to move the ball quickly resulting in more pick and sack opportunities. You can call me a smarter football fan from today on.

 

[Gameover]

There goes the "good offense to keep the D off the field" theory I myself have espoused. Really good article and it makes a lot of sense. Playing from behind you have to pass a lot to move the ball quickly resulting in more pick and sack opportunities. You can call me a smarter football fan from today on.

It's another reason why the offense was given too much credit for our success in 2014. Both in keeping the defense off the field and are overall record.

 

[Gameover]

The Cowboys were good at creating turnovers in 2013. They were really good at creating turnovers in 2014. I'm looking at 2015 as an outlier in terms of lack of turnovers.

 

[JDSmith]

Good article providing the data to support what a lot of fans have suspected all along. When the other team never feels forced to do anything on offense, you have a very difficult time getting takeaways.

 

[MichaelWinicki]

Also interesting in that it points out how much better the pass rush was in 2015 as opposed to 2014.

If one just looks at sacks, without taking into context anything else, they can be easily misled.

 

[DandyDon52]

This is a simplistic way of analyzing turnovers.
They dont magically happen just because a team is ahead , or the team behind is passing more.
They may be more likely to happen, especially in the 4th qtr in that situation, but even then sometimes
the other team drives right down for the go ahead score.

Look at the 2014 GB game where GB drove down and scored the go ahead TD and did not have a turnover.
This was due to our guys never being in position to get between the receiver and the ball.

Dallas also drove down to take the lead, and was not stopped by a TO, but by a inc pass on 4th down.
The murray fumble happened when I think we had the lead.

Int's usually happen on tipped balls, or the defender undercutting and getting between the rec and qb.
And also on a pass where it is thrown poorly or rec isnt where qb thinks he will be.

I was watching the jets game 2015 last nite, and the jets int a KM pass in the end zone,
The pass was on target to dez, but a jet defender was in position to undercut the play running opposite to the
direction dez was running across back of endzone.

Dallas seems to never have anyone in position to undercut a play like that, and if a ball is tipped they dont get
to it.

The other turnovers are fumbles and strips, and knockouts, and these have nothing to do with passing more
or being behind or in the lead.

Fumbles are gifts, if your defense can recover.
Strips and knockouts, are something your defense makes happen or they dont.
I did not see much attempt at this last year from our defense.
Again the defense has to also recover the ball if they strip or knock it out.

In the 2014 GB game there was 1 fumble and 1 knockout, and dallas could not recover either one.
If defensive players dont hustle to where the ball is, they wont be near when the ball comes out, so then
they likely wont recover it.
Same for offense, on murrays fumbles, all were lost, because offensive players were not hustling to where the ball
was. If they dont and rb fumbles, the other team will most likely recover.

So it is more about being in position to get turnovers, and making plays,rather than just waiting for them to happen

 

[MichaelWinicki]

This is a simplistic way of analyzing turnovers.
They dont magically happen just because a team is ahead , or the team behind is passing more.
They may be more likely to happen, especially in the 4th qtr in that situation, but even then sometimes
the other team drives right down for the go ahead score.

Look at the 2014 GB game where GB drove down and scored the go ahead TD and did not have a turnover.
This was due to our guys never being in position to get between the receiver and the ball.

Dallas also drove down to take the lead, and was not stopped by a TO, but by a inc pass on 4th down.
The murray fumble happened when I think we had the lead.

Int's usually happen on tipped balls, or the defender undercutting and getting between the rec and qb.
And also on a pass where it is thrown poorly or rec isnt where qb thinks he will be.

I was watching the jets game 2015 last nite, and the jets int a KM pass in the end zone,
The pass was on target to dez, but a jet defender was in position to undercut the play running opposite to the
direction dez was running across back of endzone.

Dallas seems to never have anyone in position to undercut a play like that, and if a ball is tipped they dont get
to it.

The other turnovers are fumbles and strips, and knockouts, and these have nothing to do with passing more
or being behind or in the lead.

Fumbles are gifts, if your defense can recover.
Strips and knockouts, are something your defense makes happen or they dont.
I did not see much attempt at this last year from our defense.
Again the defense has to also recover the ball if they strip or knock it out.

In the 2014 GB game there was 1 fumble and 1 knockout, and dallas could not recover either one.
If defensive players dont hustle to where the ball is, they wont be near when the ball comes out, so then
they likely wont recover it.
Same for offense, on murrays fumbles, all were lost, because offensive players were not hustling to where the ball
was. If they dont and rb fumbles, the other team will most likely recover.

So it is more about being in position to get turnovers, and making plays,rather than just waiting for them to happen

No question the lack of picks is also tied to a lack of not just ball-awareness, but being where they should.

Fans (rightfully) complain about the DB who gets his hands on the ball and drops a pick.

But they don't have a clue when they see an easy completion, that if the DB was playing where he was suppose to he could have had an opportunity to either stop the completion or get a interception.

A lack of talent exists in the secondary... At least it did in 2015.

 

[percyhoward]

How does the offense help the defense? By getting a lead and forcing other teams to respond. They will still get 60-65 snaps, but if more of them are passes, the turnovers return and the sacks add up if everything else is equal. And that is specifically how this should work.

Sturm is half right. Yes, having fewer leads did cause our takeaways to go down, but that alone doesn't explain why the drop off was so extreme. The other reason we had so few takeaways was the schedule of offenses we faced (6th most difficult, after facing the 30th most difficult in 2014). In 2014, we were playing a lot of turnover-prone teams, while in 2015 most of our opponents were much better at protecting the ball. .

There were actually 12 teams (Falcons, Chargers, Rams, Raiders, Jags, Bucs, Ravens, Bears, Dolphins, 9ers, Titans, Browns) that had fewer plays with a 4+ point lead than the Cowboys, and they all had more takeaways.

 

[percyhoward]

Good article that rationalized our thought process this offseason.

The article looks at one aspect of defense -- takeaways. There's no correlation between a huge jump in scoring and a significant improvement in overall defense.

 

[DandyDon52]

No question the lack of picks is also tied to a lack of not just ball-awareness, but being where they should.

Fans (rightfully) complain about the DB who gets his hands on the ball and drops a pick.

But they don't have a clue when they see an easy completion, that if the DB was playing where he was suppose to he could have had an opportunity to either stop the completion or get a interception.

A lack of talent exists in the secondary... At least it did in 2015.

Yes and it could also have to do with how marinelli calls the defense, and some aspects of his scheme.

 

[Hoov]

Sturm is half right. Yes, having fewer leads did cause our takeaways to go down, but that alone doesn't explain why the drop off was so extreme. The other reason we had so few takeaways was the schedule of offenses we faced (6th most difficult, after facing the 30th most difficult in 2014). In 2014, we were playing a lot of turnover-prone teams, while in 2015 most of our opponents were much better at protecting the ball. .

There were actually 12 teams (Falcons, Chargers, Rams, Raiders, Jags, Bucs, Ravens, Bears, Dolphins, 9ers, Titans, Browns) that had fewer plays with a 4+ point lead than the Cowboys, and they all had more takeaways.

Good point about the schedule.

Also, perhaps even more important than the fact that the team rarely played with a lead is the fact that as the season went on it became obvious that the cowboys had great difficulty scoring points and moving the ball consistently. Meaning an opposing coach would know the safest game plan is to play ultra conservative and dont help them by giving them a short field and wait it out, by the 4th quarter your team can outlast them and win a close game.

 

[rynochop]

No question the lack of picks is also tied to a lack of not just ball-awareness, but being where they should.

Fans (rightfully) complain about the DB who gets his hands on the ball and drops a pick.

But they don't have a clue when they see an easy completion, that if the DB was playing where he was suppose to he could have had an opportunity to either stop the completion or get a interception.

A lack of talent exists in the secondary... At least it did in 2015.

I seem to recall many dropped ints last year. I know it happens to every team, but just seemed more than average

 

[Yakuza Rich]

Sturm is half right. Yes, having fewer leads did cause our takeaways to go down, but that alone doesn't explain why the drop off was so extreme. The other reason we had so few takeaways was the schedule of offenses we faced (6th most difficult, after facing the 30th most difficult in 2014). In 2014, we were playing a lot of turnover-prone teams, while in 2015 most of our opponents were much better at protecting the ball. .

There were actually 12 teams (Falcons, Chargers, Rams, Raiders, Jags, Bucs, Ravens, Bears, Dolphins, 9ers, Titans, Browns) that had fewer plays with a 4+ point lead than the Cowboys, and they all had more takeaways.

Exactly.

Nailed it.

The fact is that this has not been a good team at creating turnovers. Sturm's theory only helps explain why the Cowboys were tied for the least amount of turnovers in NFL history. So if people want to see a good defense, not only do we need a better offense, but we need to get better at creating turnovers.





YR

 

[percyhoward]

Perhaps even more important than the fact that the team rarely played with a lead is the fact that as the season went on it became obvious that the cowboys had great difficulty scoring points and moving the ball consistently. Meaning an opposing coach would know the safest game plan is to play ultra conservative and dont help them by giving them a short field and wait it out, by the 4th quarter your team can outlast them and win a close game.

Seems plausible, but there was actually no difference in our opponents' pass/run ratios over the first 3 quarters.
2014: 57% pass 43%
2015: 57% pass 43%

There was a slight drop in the percentage of deeper targets (15+ yards), however.
2014: 18%
2015: 14%

But almost all of that difference was in the 3rd quarter, suggesting that the play selection was more of a reactive nature than an anticipatory one.

 

[percyhoward]

If people want to see a good defense, not only do we need a better offense, but we need to get better at creating turnovers.

We really need to get better, period. We ranked 26th in net yards allowed per attempt, and 28th in rushing TD allowed.

The Rams faced the league's most difficult schedule of offenses last year, had fewer plays with a 4+ point lead than the Cowboys, and still ranked in the Top 10 in takeaways.

They've got a good defense.

 

[zekecowboy]

Sturm is half right. Yes, having fewer leads did cause our takeaways to go down, but that alone doesn't explain why the drop off was so extreme. The other reason we had so few takeaways was the schedule of offenses we faced (6th most difficult, after facing the 30th most difficult in 2014). In 2014, we were playing a lot of turnover-prone teams, while in 2015 most of our opponents were much better at protecting the ball. .

There were actually 12 teams (Falcons, Chargers, Rams, Raiders, Jags, Bucs, Ravens, Bears, Dolphins, 9ers, Titans, Browns) that had fewer plays with a 4+ point lead than the Cowboys, and they all had more takeaways.

This is the reason why Dallas should play better and have a decent won - loss record in 2016. The Dallas Cowboys will be playing a last place schedule which will make for a weaker strength schedule.

 

[percyhoward]

This is the reason why Dallas should play better and have a decent won - loss record in 2016. The Dallas Cowboys will be playing a last place schedule which will make for a weaker strength schedule.

You'd have to assume a much better record if Romo's healthy, but (unfortunately, for this year) there's no correlation between the current year's strength of opponent and the previous year's W-L records. We'll have to wait until the end of the season to find out how easy or difficult the schedule was.

 

[CCBoy]

Thursday, May 26, 2016



Excerpts here only, have to read the whole article to get the gist. After the astericks is the synopsis.

http://sturminator.blogspot.com/2016/05/examining-low-takeaways-and-newbury.html
or
http://sportsday.***BANNED-URL***/d.../26/bob-sturm-takeaways-sacks-theory-examined








***********

You certainly didn't need an eye-catching graphic to show you that the team was never ahead last season, but if we believe that most interceptions and sacks happen when a team is ahead and the other team has to force the issue with determined passes and the defense not worrying about your running game, then we can quickly see that the Cowboys defense was never in this position -- just 16 percent rather than 49 percent.

We could run the numbers of how this played out -- but given that the Cowboys were never ahead all season long, there is almost no data. The best example was Sam Bradford throwing into the Cowboys secondary in Week 2 and throwing picks. But, those are the only three turnovers the Cowboys got from advantageous spots all season. Five of the 31 sacks came from those small spots, too.

The pass rush actually improved significantly. They had 31 sacks in 506 pass plays this past year -- one sack every 16.3 pass plays. In 2014, it was 28 in 558 -- one sack every 19.9 pass plays. That is a very significant improvement to where they are almost at league average. In 2014, they were not close to the league average, despite being in a spot to get a ton of sacks. But, in 2015, despite being a better pass rush team -- they never were able to force teams to throw.

So, we circle back to the start.

How does the offense help the defense? By getting a lead and forcing other teams to respond. They will still get 60-65 snaps, but if more of them are passes, the turnovers return and the sacks add up if everything else is equal. And that is specifically how this should work.

This indicates that overall tendencies do have a major affect upon individual play...so much, for jumping ship and belittling other commenters.