Sturm Q&A

[Risen Star]

Just 4 questions with lengthy answers.

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Might this be the year that Dallas finally considers a DT (Kancey, Bresee, Smith) in the first round? — Joey Rodriguez

I would certainly not call that impossible this year. If you are a long-time draft enthusiast for this team, you know that first- or second-round picks spent on defensive tackles are a rarity with this franchise. They just don’t like to do it at all. Then when we see that they finally did it, it was in 2019 for Trysten Hill, a player the room was split on and who never gained much of a foothold for a number of reasons. The Cowboys have wandered into the third round and taken their new shots with Maliek Collins and Osa Odighizuwa, but the investment levels there are much lower. That said, Odighizuwa is a very nice player and looks to have a shot at being a guy they extend at some point as time does fly on four-year rookie deals.

Back to your actual question of whether I could see them dropping a first-rounder (No. 26) on a DT like Calijah Kancey, Bryan Bresee or Mazi Smith? Kancey is my project for today, so I am flying a little blind on his quality, but if you told me that the Cowboys ended up with Smith, I would be pretty pleased. Bresee and Kancey seem more like 3-techniques who are not the big run-stopping monster I think this defense needs. Right now on the roster, I see Odighizuwa, Neville Gallimore, and to a lesser extent, Chauncey Golston are all potential 3-techniques. I like Bresee (Clemson) plenty, but I wonder if the upgrade there is significant enough to make me walk away from getting a playmaker at that spot for my offense. But, with Smith, he would absolutely give me something at nose tackle or 1-technique that either I don’t have or have in short-term supply from Johnathan Hankins. That is to play in the middle, take and eat double teams, keep the linebackers clean and shut down inside run attempts. This allows everything else in the defense to be less concerned about this issue, stresses the opponent’s guard-center-guard combos, and in Smith’s case, pushes the pocket back into the QB’s lap. Also, the athleticism seems capable of running down the line of scrimmage in a way that is unlikely for a man of about 330 pounds.

Is it worth a first-round pick if you are taking him off the field in nickel downs? I am not so sure about that, but maybe there is a scenario to pick up an additional second by trading back and there you take him and add another pick. Also, Smith is probably the entire list of defensive tackles I would take that high who can play the 1-tech, because most of them cannot run at all and while I don’t need them to run go-routes, I do need them to have lateral quickness to make plays. In short, yes, I do think the Cowboys are at least considering their options — but no, there are not a ton of great options.

 

[Risen Star]

If all four tight ends are on the board (Mayer, Kincaid, Washington, Musgrave) who is best fit? — Mr Ferguson

Good question and I will tell you that there are two answers. Which one fits my eye the best and is the type of player I look for? That is Utah’s Dalton Kincaid. Here is how I described him in the first Draft Digest: This guy might be the best receiver in the bunch and is absolutely a weapon as a slot and move-around tight end. He can beat you so many ways and is a big, athletic target who is very difficult matchup. He has real gazelle tendencies and can high-point the ball or catch in traffic with hands that snatch the ball with strength and then is slippery after the catch. I positively love the guy, but I also recognize that I might not speak for Mike McCarthy and this team that has continuously put a premium on the run game. I am from the “a yard is a yard” school, so I don’t care if we run for 125 yards this Sunday as long as we get our 400 overall. And Kincaid is that dude to find more explosive plays from a position that gets almost none unless opponents completely forget to cover your tight end (which does happen and that isn’t a compliment!).

Now, which one fits the eye of McCarthy the best? I would submit that it is Michael Mayer from Notre Dame. He is thought of as the most balanced player and most “Witten-like” in his skill set, which means that 50 percent of his usage is blocking. I have no issue with him, but he isn’t quite the weapon Kincaid is — like Witten wasn’t quite the weapon Tony Gonzalez or Antonio Gates were. No worries, they are both really good. My quick summary of his strengths: Mayer is probably the best of the “complete” tight ends in which he seems to properly handle all of the do-it-all responsibilities of the position at a very high level. He is a real threat to catch the ball and do everything you need, while also being a force in the blocking game and opening up things as a tight end of a balanced offense. There is very little that he cannot do with real ease. On occasion, he can get vertical, too.

 

[Risen Star]

Should Dallas go ahead and start the rebuild on the offensive line? — DeShaun

It is never a bad time to consider that Zack Martin and Tyron Smith will not play forever. And if I haven’t told you recently, you should know that while nobody ever believes this and while he has certainly been much closer to a rock of durability, Martin (first-rounder in 2014) is actually older than Smith (first-rounder in 2011). Now, to your question and my small confusion: Is there ever a time when you are not rebuilding? In other words, Tyler Smith was a big part of the rebuild last year and will continue to be for many years. Terence Steele and Tyler Biadasz were added in 2020 and while it remains to be seen whether or not they will be high-priority extensions, they verywell could be. And if all three of those consist of 60 percent of your offensive line since McCarthy was hired, then it does not seem to be a line that requires a rebuild much at all.

Now, how much time do the Cowboys have left with Tyron Smith? You could easily argue that 2023 could be it and after that, they will be happy that they have both Tyler Smith and Steele in the room. Also, we can assume that Josh Ball and/or Matt Waletzko both at least still have a moderate chance to amount to something. So, a year after losing Connor Williams and a month after losing Connor McGovern, the more immediate goals are to take care of some interior vacancies and that is why we think guard is somewhere on their list. But, if Martin soon becomes the longest tenured Cowboy (if Tyron Smith leaves), we still think he could be extended before long. He is under contract for two more seasons, but his 2024 number is pretty hefty, so maybe they tack on a few years and get that dropped down.

 

[Risen Star]

Hi Bob. Curious how you think the offensive personnel packages will change with KM gone and McCarthy now calling plays? — Milk Dude

This is an interesting topic. To know what personnel packages may be adjusted, we must first see where Dallas most currently was:

2022 personnel groupings
Grouping..............Cowboys Usage.........NFL Average
11 Personnel.........679 snaps (61%)........651 snaps (61%)
12 Personnel..........249 snaps (22%).......197 snaps (18%)
13 Personnel...........78 snaps (7%)...........45 snaps (4%)
21 Personnel............21 snaps (3%)...........83 snaps (8%)

So, the Cowboys were a heavy 11 personnel team in previous years but in 2022, you would not know it. Somehow, this team was so ill-prepared at receiver that it had to basically stop running its offense because it did not have NFL wide receivers anymore. The Cowboys started Noah Brown and played him 61 snaps in Week 1 vs Tampa Bay and rookie Dennis Houston was probably as shocked as any of us that he played the third WR spot that night and was on the field for 39 snaps. In Week 2, Houston played 21 snaps against the Bengals, would not play another snap on the offense and was released. The point here is not to disparage either of those players, but to say there is a good chance the Cowboys discontinued their offensive identity because they had no choice. They leaned into their multiple tight end offense to cover for lack of personnel and because the last thing they wanted was for Cooper Rush to try to sling the ball around the lot. In other words, last year’s data may be misleading.

That said, let’s still tackle the discussion.

In a normal world, I believe McCarthy prefers more tight ends to balance his offense. The deception from personnel and alignment that sells run before a pass, or pass before a run is something he has always believed in. He has never been a semblance of Kliff Kingsbury Air Raid football, so you would think Kellen Moore to McCarthy would be less “11” and more “12.” But given that there are personnel considerations — we don’t know the starting tight end or the third WR — we absolutely have issues to sort out.

Yes, I believe McCarthy will put a premium on a solid tight end who can give Jake Ferguson someone to join, but more at WR would push them in the other direction. Heck, could a running back early put Tony Pollard in a “whatever back” spot that moves him around? What I am saying is that the Cowboys will tell us what they want in three weeks when they go on the clock at pick No. 26. The future can still be written.

 

[big dog cowboy]

Martin (first-rounder in 2014) is actually older than Smith (first-rounder in 2011).

Not so fun fact.