The Draft Fallacy of "Position of Need"

[Jumbo075]

I was looking at some of the mock drafts, and I see a big problem in how some mock drafters perceive the "Positions of Need" for the Cowboys.

For example, the Cowboys have spent two mid-round picks on Offensive Tackles in the last two seasons (Ball & Waletko), plus a 1st round pick on OT Tyler Smith. They also developed UDFA Terrance Steele from the 2020 rookie class into a mid-level, but rising starter at Right Tackle. And they still have future HOF player Tyron Smith, who is slated to start the season at Right Tackle. So, my question is why some mock drafts have listed OT as a position of need for the Cowboys. IMO, if the Cowboys do draft an OT, it will be one that projects as a Guard in the NFL.

Another mock draft has the Cowboys spending 2 of their 7 picks on Wide Receivers. So, spending $60 million on Gallup, a 1st round pick on CeeDee Lamb, and trading for Brandin Cooks isn't enough? Also, they spent a 3rd and 5th round pick on WR's in the last two drafts in Fehoko and Tolbert. Are the Cowboys really ready to give up on those previous two picks so quickly? I can see the Cowboys spending a low pick on another WR at the end of the draft, but two picks?

So, my point is that when evaluating "Positions of Need," most pundits completely ignore the recent draft picks of the teams, just because they didn't shine in their rookie or sophomore seasons in the NFL. How many people were ready to write off Donovan Wilson after he was buried on the bench his first two seasons? How many were ready to move on from Leighton Vander Esch after he suffered through some injury seasons. But both were resigned by the Cowboys for substantial contracts this offseason. Are the Cowboys going to give up on their young DT's and DE's?

Don't get me wrong. Of course the Cowboys should always be looking for the best players in the draft. And if one become available that is a clear upgrade over a recently drafted player, then you pull the trigger regardless of past recent draft picks. But EVERY team in the NFL has talent buried on their roster that takes time to develop. Case in Point: Doug Free developed into a good NFL starter for several seasons for the Cowboys, and at one point was the highest rated Free Agent OT in the NFL after his rookie deal expired. But he didn't start until his 4th season. Donovan Wilson became a huge player for the Cowboys in his 4th season.

So, when evaluating each team for "Positions of Need", don't forget to include in your evaluation that teams really like the players they've recently drafted, and don't give up on them nearly as quickly as fans and pundits do. What may be perceived as a "position of need" by outsiders may already be addressed by players already on the rosters of many teams. They are developing players - some of who will turn into players, and others who will fail - that are already on their roster for a lot of what outsiders believe they aren't addressing at all.

P.S. It also means that just because the Cowboys seem to ignore a position where you think they have a need, it doesn't mean they don't have a plan to address that need. Maybe that plan is flawed. Many time it is for all the NFL teams. And every team needs a little bit of luck to come their way to build a good roster (Just look at the 49ers. Who would have picked Brock Purdy over Trey Lance?). But it isn't accurate to assume the front office is a bunch of dunces for "ignoring' what you perceive to be a "glaring need." It just means they have a different plan. So, instead of attacking the character or intelligence of team Scouting departments and coaching staffs, maybe just be critical of the plan they seem to be deploying. It means less flame-throwing and requires more thoughtful analysis.

 

[cnuball21]

I was looking at some of the mock drafts, and I see a big problem in how some mock drafters perceive the "Positions of Need" for the Cowboys.

For example, the Cowboys have spent two mid-round picks on Offensive Tackles in the last two seasons (Ball & Waletko), plus a 1st round pick on OT Tyler Smith. They also developed UDFA Terrance Steele from the 2020 rookie class into a mid-level, but rising starter at Right Tackle. And they still have future HOF player Tyron Smith, who is slated to start the season at Right Tackle. So, my question is why some mock drafts have listed OT as a position of need for the Cowboys. IMO, if the Cowboys do draft an OT, it will be one that projects as a Guard in the NFL.

Another mock draft has the Cowboys spending 2 of their 7 picks on Wide Receivers. So, spending $60 million on Gallup, a 1st round pick on CeeDee Lamb, and trading for Brandin Cooks isn't enough? Also, they spent a 3rd and 5th round pick on WR's in the last two drafts in Fehoko and Tolbert. Are the Cowboys really ready to give up on those previous two picks so quickly? I can see the Cowboys spending a low pick on another WR at the end of the draft, but two picks?

So, my point is that when evaluating "Positions of Need," most pundits completely ignore the recent draft picks of the teams, just because they didn't shine in their rookie or sophomore seasons in the NFL. How many people were ready to write off Donovan Wilson after he was buried on the bench his first two seasons? How many were ready to move on from Leighton Vander Esch after he suffered through some injury seasons. But both were resigned by the Cowboys for substantial contracts this offseason. Are the Cowboys going to give up on their young DT's and DE's?

Don't get me wrong. Of course the Cowboys should always be looking for the best players in the draft. And if one become available that is a clear upgrade over a recently drafted player, then you pull the trigger regardless of past recent draft picks. But EVERY team in the NFL has talent buried on their roster that takes time to develop. Case in Point: Doug Free developed into a good NFL starter for several seasons for the Cowboys, and at one point was the highest rated Free Agent OT in the NFL after his rookie deal expired. But he didn't start until his 4th season. Donovan Wilson became a huge player for the Cowboys in his 4th season.

So, when evaluating each team for "Positions of Need", don't forget to include in your evaluation that teams really like the players they've recently drafted, and don't give up on them nearly as quickly as fans and pundits do. What may be perceived as a "position of need" by outsiders may already be addressed by players already on the rosters of many teams. They are developing players - some of who will turn into players, and others who will fail - that are already on their roster for a lot of what outsiders believe they aren't addressing at all.

P.S. It also means that just because the Cowboys seem to ignore a position where you think they have a need, it doesn't mean they don't have a plan to address that need. Maybe that plan is flawed. Many time it is for all the NFL teams. And every team needs a little bit of luck to come their way to build a good roster (Just look at the 49ers. Who would have picked Brock Purdy over Trey Lance?). But it isn't accurate to assume the front office is a bunch of dunces for "ignoring' what you perceive to be a "glaring need." It just means they have a different plan. So, instead of attacking the character or intelligence of team Scouting departments and coaching staffs, maybe just be critical of the plan they seem to be deploying. It means less flame-throwing and requires more thoughtful analysis.

I think they’re looking more so long term and getting out of contracts.

Ex.

- CB: Lewis could save 4 million as a cut if we like a CB eary
- DE: replace Tanks contract
- WR: get us the heck out of Gallups contract
- OT: keep us from paying Steele

I feel like too many people look at year 1 as needs instead of years 2+.

 

[MonsterD]

I think in the case of WR they have really one guy they are going to depend on the future for, we all know who. Then you have an aging vet who might or might not be here after 2024. You have a guy who looked awful after coming back from injury, very unsure of his future. You have a rookie who looked like he didn't know how to play, seeing he was from South Alabama or whatever, makes sense he needed to adjust to the NFL level. I am not saying all three guys are not here in 2024 or especially 2025 but good chance two of those aren't here.

Then again seems like a waste to draft a WR until 3rd-ish round. I dunno it isn't an especially rosy-comfy situation there, that is all I am trying to convey.

 

[xwalker]

I was looking at some of the mock drafts, and I see a big problem in how some mock drafters perceive the "Positions of Need" for the Cowboys.

For example, the Cowboys have spent two mid-round picks on Offensive Tackles in the last two seasons (Ball & Waletko), plus a 1st round pick on OT Tyler Smith. They also developed UDFA Terrance Steele from the 2020 rookie class into a mid-level, but rising starter at Right Tackle. And they still have future HOF player Tyron Smith, who is slated to start the season at Right Tackle. So, my question is why some mock drafts have listed OT as a position of need for the Cowboys. IMO, if the Cowboys do draft an OT, it will be one that projects as a Guard in the NFL.

Another mock draft has the Cowboys spending 2 of their 7 picks on Wide Receivers. So, spending $60 million on Gallup, a 1st round pick on CeeDee Lamb, and trading for Brandin Cooks isn't enough? Also, they spent a 3rd and 5th round pick on WR's in the last two drafts in Fehoko and Tolbert. Are the Cowboys really ready to give up on those previous two picks so quickly? I can see the Cowboys spending a low pick on another WR at the end of the draft, but two picks?

So, my point is that when evaluating "Positions of Need," most pundits completely ignore the recent draft picks of the teams, just because they didn't shine in their rookie or sophomore seasons in the NFL. How many people were ready to write off Donovan Wilson after he was buried on the bench his first two seasons? How many were ready to move on from Leighton Vander Esch after he suffered through some injury seasons. But both were resigned by the Cowboys for substantial contracts this offseason. Are the Cowboys going to give up on their young DT's and DE's?

Don't get me wrong. Of course the Cowboys should always be looking for the best players in the draft. And if one become available that is a clear upgrade over a recently drafted player, then you pull the trigger regardless of past recent draft picks. But EVERY team in the NFL has talent buried on their roster that takes time to develop. Case in Point: Doug Free developed into a good NFL starter for several seasons for the Cowboys, and at one point was the highest rated Free Agent OT in the NFL after his rookie deal expired. But he didn't start until his 4th season. Donovan Wilson became a huge player for the Cowboys in his 4th season.

So, when evaluating each team for "Positions of Need", don't forget to include in your evaluation that teams really like the players they've recently drafted, and don't give up on them nearly as quickly as fans and pundits do. What may be perceived as a "position of need" by outsiders may already be addressed by players already on the rosters of many teams. They are developing players - some of who will turn into players, and others who will fail - that are already on their roster for a lot of what outsiders believe they aren't addressing at all.

P.S. It also means that just because the Cowboys seem to ignore a position where you think they have a need, it doesn't mean they don't have a plan to address that need. Maybe that plan is flawed. Many time it is for all the NFL teams. And every team needs a little bit of luck to come their way to build a good roster (Just look at the 49ers. Who would have picked Brock Purdy over Trey Lance?). But it isn't accurate to assume the front office is a bunch of dunces for "ignoring' what you perceive to be a "glaring need." It just means they have a different plan. So, instead of attacking the character or intelligence of team Scouting departments and coaching staffs, maybe just be critical of the plan they seem to be deploying. It means less flame-throwing and requires more thoughtful analysis.

You've put more thought into it than most of the draft media with regards to team needs.

The draft media is primarily focused on the prospects, not NFL team needs.

 

[morasp]

It's called the three year rule for rookies.

Round one really needs to be the best player if two are equal the greater need is fine.

I'm not sure why OT would be a need but if a good one fell I wouldn't let to day three picks who had backup grades going into the draft stop them from taking him. Then when not if Tryon gets hurt OT Rookie, LG Tyler, OC Biadasz, Martin, and Steele would look pretty good. And when Tyron retires the new OT steps in. There are also a lot of college OTs in the draft with starter grades that like Tyler last year could move inside and play OG including Skoronski.

Cooks is a two year rental that adds some speed and gives the team time to develop younger players. Gallup is a $6.8 million dollar hit this year on no hit if they cut him next year. WRs have gotten very expensive in FA so if you have a chance to improve you should. I liked the Jalen Tolbert pick but it's a better draft class this year and they shouldn't let having him stop them from trying to upgrade the position. There are 13 WRs graded higher than Tolbert was in this years draft. Let them compete, Steel sharpens steel.

 

[Jumbo075]

It's called the three year rule for rookies.

Round one really needs to be the best player if two are equal the greater need is fine.

I'm not sure why OT would be a need but if a good one fell I wouldn't let to day three picks who had backup grades going into the draft stop them from taking him. Then when not if Tryon gets hurt OT Rookie, LG Tyler, OC Biadasz, Martin, and Steele would look pretty good. And when Tyron retires the new OT steps in. There are also a lot of college OTs in the draft with starter grades that like Tyler last year could move inside and play OG including Skoronski.

Cooks is a two year rental that adds some speed and gives the team time to develop younger players. Gallup is a $6.8 million dollar hit this year on no hit if they cut him next year. WRs have gotten very expensive in FA so if you have a chance to improve you should. I liked the Jalen Tolbert pick but it's a better draft class this year and they shouldn't let having him stop them from trying to upgrade the position. There are 13 WRs graded higher than Tolbert was in this years draft. Let them compete, Steel sharpens steel.

I am not ruling out the Cowboys drafting any player, or any position. My point is that "Position of Need" analysis according to fans and pundits usually fails to account for players that teams are currently developing.

The OT and WR discussion were just examples, not a recommendation against drafting a good player.

 

[CouchCoach]

All of these mocks and needs assessments do not allow for the surprise element of the draft, it is dynamic and unpredictable. Few saw Lamb dropping into the Cowboys lap.

Plus there is so much misinformation spread by the clubs themselves, it's all a game. Even Parcells admitted to lying and that was OK because that being part of it. He lied to Steven Jackson and told him he'd pick him, hoping he would tell others.

We've become so accustomed to rookies having to play early that we think that's the norm and that 3 year developmental plan has not changed. The circumstances the teams find themselves in has but that plan has not changed.

We are not privy to the game plan of these GM's and just how much their picks are about the future.

 

[cnuball21]

All of these mocks and needs assessments do not allow for the surprise element of the draft, it is dynamic and unpredictable. Few saw Lamb dropping into the Cowboys lap.

Plus there is so much misinformation spread by the clubs themselves, it's all a game. Even Parcells admitted to lying and that was OK because that being part of it. He lied to Steven Jackson and told him he'd pick him, hoping he would tell others.

We've become so accustomed to rookies having to play early that we think that's the norm and that 3 year developmental plan has not changed. The circumstances the teams find themselves in has but that plan has not changed.

We are not privy to the game plan of these GM's and just how much their picks are about the future.

The goal should be to keep attacking needs in FA and keep drafting the top talents like Lamb that fall…primarily sticking to the money positions in round 1.

 

[Dalmations202]

I think Dallas does a great job of evaluating the draft picks.
Where Dallas doesn't do a great job is evaluating their own talent -- they think they are family, and that internally they don't make mistakes.
And Dallas hasn't, until DQ, seemed to see how they can utilize their own players strengths. They just seemed to say this is how you do it, even if that player couldn't do it well and wasn't used to that players strength, so other teams easily attached them there.

 

[Pass2Run]

I was looking at some of the mock drafts, and I see a big problem in how some mock drafters perceive the "Positions of Need" for the Cowboys.

For example, the Cowboys have spent two mid-round picks on Offensive Tackles in the last two seasons (Ball & Waletko), plus a 1st round pick on OT Tyler Smith. They also developed UDFA Terrance Steele from the 2020 rookie class into a mid-level, but rising starter at Right Tackle. And they still have future HOF player Tyron Smith, who is slated to start the season at Right Tackle. So, my question is why some mock drafts have listed OT as a position of need for the Cowboys. IMO, if the Cowboys do draft an OT, it will be one that projects as a Guard in the NFL.

Another mock draft has the Cowboys spending 2 of their 7 picks on Wide Receivers. So, spending $60 million on Gallup, a 1st round pick on CeeDee Lamb, and trading for Brandin Cooks isn't enough? Also, they spent a 3rd and 5th round pick on WR's in the last two drafts in Fehoko and Tolbert. Are the Cowboys really ready to give up on those previous two picks so quickly? I can see the Cowboys spending a low pick on another WR at the end of the draft, but two picks?

So, my point is that when evaluating "Positions of Need," most pundits completely ignore the recent draft picks of the teams, just because they didn't shine in their rookie or sophomore seasons in the NFL. How many people were ready to write off Donovan Wilson after he was buried on the bench his first two seasons? How many were ready to move on from Leighton Vander Esch after he suffered through some injury seasons. But both were resigned by the Cowboys for substantial contracts this offseason. Are the Cowboys going to give up on their young DT's and DE's?

Don't get me wrong. Of course the Cowboys should always be looking for the best players in the draft. And if one become available that is a clear upgrade over a recently drafted player, then you pull the trigger regardless of past recent draft picks. But EVERY team in the NFL has talent buried on their roster that takes time to develop. Case in Point: Doug Free developed into a good NFL starter for several seasons for the Cowboys, and at one point was the highest rated Free Agent OT in the NFL after his rookie deal expired. But he didn't start until his 4th season. Donovan Wilson became a huge player for the Cowboys in his 4th season.

So, when evaluating each team for "Positions of Need", don't forget to include in your evaluation that teams really like the players they've recently drafted, and don't give up on them nearly as quickly as fans and pundits do. What may be perceived as a "position of need" by outsiders may already be addressed by players already on the rosters of many teams. They are developing players - some of who will turn into players, and others who will fail - that are already on their roster for a lot of what outsiders believe they aren't addressing at all.

P.S. It also means that just because the Cowboys seem to ignore a position where you think they have a need, it doesn't mean they don't have a plan to address that need. Maybe that plan is flawed. Many time it is for all the NFL teams. And every team needs a little bit of luck to come their way to build a good roster (Just look at the 49ers. Who would have picked Brock Purdy over Trey Lance?). But it isn't accurate to assume the front office is a bunch of dunces for "ignoring' what you perceive to be a "glaring need." It just means they have a different plan. So, instead of attacking the character or intelligence of team Scouting departments and coaching staffs, maybe just be critical of the plan they seem to be deploying. It means less flame-throwing and requires more thoughtful analysis.

Excellent post.

I totally agree. All the whining about the Joneses really just comes down to envy and the Dunning-Krueger effect.

Everyone just knows so much more than the Joneses and would do so much better with 1 in 32 odds every year.

Just ask them.

The fact is, every team makes mistakes and misses on draft picks etc cetera. Just like every poster would also make mistakes.

It's kind of a business of prediction. Not as easy as some make it sound.

 

[Macnalty]

Excellent post.

I totally agree. All the whining about the Joneses really just comes down to envy and the Dunning-Krueger effect.

Everyone just knows so much more than the Joneses and would do so much better with 1 in 32 odds every year.

Just ask them.

The fact is, every team makes mistakes and misses on draft picks etc cetera. Just like every poster would also make mistakes.

It's kind of a business of prediction. Not as easy as some make it sound.

I am not so sure the Cowboy's front office is that complicated that the ordinary fan cannot see what is happening. It is a family-run business, and no one is fully trained for their position within the team, you know how these stories turn out, you get lucky with a great coach(Jimmy Johnson), and then the Dunning Krueger effect is on display to all the world to see. We have little choice as fans other than to nitpick at their selections and try to make the best of a horrible ownership situation.

 

[cnuball21]

I think Dallas does a great job of evaluating the draft picks.
Where Dallas doesn't do a great job is evaluating their own talent -- they think they are family, and that internally they don't make mistakes.
And Dallas hasn't, until DQ, seemed to see how they can utilize their own players strengths. They just seemed to say this is how you do it, even if that player couldn't do it well and wasn't used to that players strength, so other teams easily attached them there.

I agree. I think Dallas does evaluate draft talent pretty well my biggest gripe is they just tend to reach for need over talent.

 

[Pass2Run]

I am not so sure the Cowboy's front office is that complicated that the ordinary fan cannot see what is happening. It is a family-run business, and no one is fully trained for their position within the team, you know how these stories turn out, you get lucky with a great coach(Jimmy Johnson), and then the Dunning Krueger effect is on display to all the world to see. We have little choice as fans other than to nitpick at their selections and try to make the best of a horrible ownership situation.

I'm actually happy with the ownership over the past few years.

 

[Macnalty]

I'm actually happy with the ownership over the past few years.

the Amari Cooper deal and how the front office handled it must be inspiring for you.

 

[kevinhickey]

I think they’re looking more so long term and getting out of contracts.

Ex.

- CB: Lewis could save 4 million as a cut if we like a CB eary
- DE: replace Tanks contract
- WR: get us the heck out of Gallups contract
- OT: keep us from paying Steele

I feel like too many people look at year 1 as needs instead of years 2+.

A DE would be nice addition to replace Tank/ Armstrong and to give The Beast Parsons a break. Hoping Sam Williams continues to develop.

 

[cnuball21]

A DE would be nice addition to replace Tank/ Armstrong and to give The Beast Parsons a break. Hoping Sam Williams continues to develop.

I’m very excited about Sam. I’ll happily eat crow bc I wasn’t happy about the pick but he showed big time flashes last year and I think he can develop into someone that might be able to take over Tanks role.

Truth is we can take and type of DE and they’ll get a ton of snaps moving forward as Micah plays some LBr and we rotate a lot.

 

[gtb1943]

Excellent post.

I totally agree. All the whining about the Joneses really just comes down to envy and the Dunning-Krueger effect.

Everyone just knows so much more than the Joneses and would do so much better with 1 in 32 odds every year.

Just ask them.

The fact is, every team makes mistakes and misses on draft picks etc cetera. Just like every poster would also make mistakes.

It's kind of a business of prediction. Not as easy as some make it sound.

Where is the accountability for a record that would have had ANY OTHER GM in the league fired by now?

 

[Typhus]

the Amari Cooper deal and how the front office handled it must be inspiring for you.

Dallas wanted out of that contract, but I agree that they didn't have to be so desperate.