Doomsday101
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By Pat Kirwan
NFL.com Senior Analyst
(Feb. 13, 2006) -- It's obvious to a majority of football fans that the most important person on the field during the season is the quarterback, and I'm here to say that the QB is the most important person in the offseason too.
Last year, there were three new head coaches in the NFL, Romeo Crennel (Cleveland), Nick Saban (Miami) and Mike Nolan (San Francisco), and all of them made a change at the quarterback position. Alex Smith was drafted by the Niners with the first overall pick, Cleveland brought in Trent Dilfer and drafted Charlie Frye, and Miami turned the team over to Gus Frerotte -- at least for the short term. This year, there are more questions at the signal-caller position than I can ever remember in the NFL. With three weeks left before the start of free agency, there are more internal discussions about quarterbacks than all other positions combined.
I don't think there are 12 teams that feel totally comfortable with their QB situation, and that means 20 teams are mulling over their options. Those options include terminating the starter, restructuring his contract up or down, getting competition on the roster to have more options, drafting one of the first-round candidates in the upcoming draft, or changing the offense to fit the skills of the player on the roster. Of course, the reality that there are 10 new head coaches this offseason means there should be significant volatility, because new coaches want their own guy for the job -- just like last year.
Let's start with a quick review of the situation at the 10 teams with a new head coach.
1. Minnesota -- Daunte Culpepper is coming off a major injury, Brad Johnson played well in his absence. Culpepper has a contract but wants a new deal and has fired his agent and is considering representing himself. The new coach, Brad Childress, is a QB coach by trade and wants both players on the roster for competitive reasons. I would too, but it may be unrealistic to hope for the perfect situation.
2. New York Jets -- Chad Pennington is coming off a second serious surgery to his throwing shoulder, and the club will not know if he can throw the ball before a big roster bonus is due to him. New head coach Eric Mangini has coached against Chad many times and has seen what he looks like when he's 100 percent healthy, let alone partially well. This is a hard call to make, and when I ask the question, "Is Chad ever going to be good enough to overtake Tom Brady and the Patriots for the division title," I'm not so sure. I would insist on a restructured contract down and pushing back the roster bonus or I would move in a different direction. There will be options in the draft where the Jets select at No. 4, and Jets fans would buy into a youth movement if the club came right out and said they were starting one.
3. Detroit -- Joey Harrington has already gone through two head coaches and now has the chance to be coached by Mike Martz as his offensive coordinator under new head coach Rod Marinelli. Martz has worked wonders with undrafted QBs Kurt Warner and Marc Bulger. Martz may be in Detroit a very short time before he gets another head coaching position, but I would take one more look at Harrington if I were Matt Millen and the staff. The last thing I would want to see is Harrington blossom somewhere else like Jake Plummer did in Denver.
4. Green Bay -- Brett Favre is headed straight to the Hall of Fame when he's eligible, and that doesn't happen until he retires. The Packers have a real dilemma on their hands and a huge cap charge if he's on the roster. No one wants to be the person in Green Bay to show Brett the door, but it may come to that even though Aaron Rogers is not ready to play. The honeymoon period for new head coach Mike McCarthy starts now, and a year from now, he could be in worse shape than he is now if he puts off the Favre decision. The Pack would open up over $7 million of cap space if Brett retires.
5. Buffalo -- J.P. Losman wasn't ready to play in 2006, and it cost GM Tom Donahoe his job and sent head coach Mike Mularkey packing as well. Dick Jauron is a defensive-minded head coach, and ball security and a conservative game plan will be his desire. Kelly Holcomb is a better answer in the minds of the Bills players and probably the coaches. The QB decision in Buffalo is the most important decision this franchise will make this year, and an open competition may cause more harm than good with the players and fans.
6. Oakland -- Kerry Collins really struggled down the stretch and seems to have lost the confidence of some of his teammates. Art Shell has to make this call fairly quickly, but where does he turn to if he lets him go, considering Mr. Davis at his press conference said, "It may take a short while to get it back," referring to the old Raider swagger? Is Art Shell the kind of coach to head into the draft for a top signal-caller, or does he look at a young guy like Josh McCown in free agency who was 9-10 as a starter for the Cardinals? Surely, McCown could have a better record with the Raiders.
7. New Orleans -- Aaron Brooks puts up the numbers but doesn't win the big games. At least that is the public perception of him. The new head coach, Sean Payton, is a quarterback coach by trade, and maybe he can get more out of Brooks -- or maybe he evaluates him and decides his $6.25 million salary is overpayment for the results. I believe the Saints take advantage of their draft position and build around a top pick like Matt Leinart or Vince Young.
8. Houston -- David Carr just got the option bonus that makes him the Texans QB for three more years. Gary Kubiak could have elected to take a cheaper two-year option, which might have created more intrigue headed into the draft about his long-range future. Now, it appears Houston is set at QB. I sure hope they get some protection help for him, and that Kubiak teaches him to get the ball out of his hand quicker.
9. Kansas City -- Trent Green is an all-pro quarterback, and Herm Edwards isn't going to rock the boat on this situation, but he may need to start looking at the long-range plans. A young guy like Brodie Croyle (Alabama) in the third round, if they could get him there, would be perfect.
10. St. Louis -- Marc Bulger is a very good quarterback, and new head coach Scott Linehan knows he has a winner under center. This is not the time to upset the situation.
I think it would be fair to say that more than half of the new head coaches will make some kind of change at the quarterback position this year, but there are still a number of other situations around the league that make this a year to remember.
Does it sound like a good idea to let Drew Brees test the market if you are running the Chargers? If A.J. Smith lets him do that, he's gone. If they decide to transition tag him and let the league set his value, then negotiations don't have to get ugly. The Chargers have enough salary cap space to match an offer that he may get from another team. If they are uncomfortable with that plan, then just franchise tag him again and play another year under the same circumstances as 2005. It sounds expensive, but there is no $10 million signing bonus to worry about either.
In Baltimore, Ozzie Newsome told me that there will be quarterback competition for Kyle Boller, which is what the team needs at this point. Boller has been in the league long enough now to compete with a veteran, and if the Ravens bring in a Jon Kitna or Josh McCown or even a Kerry Collins (if he gets cut in Oakland) it should strengthen the team.
Tennessee has some decisions to make with Steve McNair's contract and the future of Billy Volek. There's no doubt McNair is on the downside of his career, and any future contract needs to reflect that -- instead of a big signing bonus for past glories. The Titans need to escape from salary cap jail, not get an extended sentence. The draft does present options for them, and offensive coordinator Norm Chow has worked with Leinart and Jay Cutler.
In Cincinnati, most feel Carson Palmer will be back at 100 percent, but the Bengals will probably lose Kitna in free agency, so a capable backup who can start until Palmer is ready is a necessity. The signing of Doug Johnson doesn't satisfy the issue. They need Doug for minicamps and offseason workouts. Someone like Brad Johnson or a Gus Frerotte-type is what the doctor ordered in this situation.
In Washington, it's anyone's guess how long Mark Brunell keeps the starting job before he gives way to last year's first-round pick Jason Campbell. Pat Ramsey should be wearing another uniform by the summer, but why would Joe Gibbs start the Campbell era if he isn't going to remain as the Commanders head coach for a long period of time?
In Atlanta, Mike Vick isn't going anywhere, especially with close to $20 million as a cap hit if he were to be gone, but the Falcons must figure out how to maximize Vick's skills and get back into the playoffs. My advice is stop trying to make him something he is not, and tell him to run for 100 yards a game and throw for 150 yards. He may not last more than a few years in the league, but the Falcons will win more games while they get Schaub ready to play.
Finally, unless your locker room has a name plate over a locker that says Manning, Brady, Roethlisberger, Hasselbeck, McNabb, Plummer, Leftwich, Bledsoe, Delhomme or Green, there are questions being asked in staff rooms around the league, and there have to be answers before March 3.
NFL.com Senior Analyst
(Feb. 13, 2006) -- It's obvious to a majority of football fans that the most important person on the field during the season is the quarterback, and I'm here to say that the QB is the most important person in the offseason too.
Last year, there were three new head coaches in the NFL, Romeo Crennel (Cleveland), Nick Saban (Miami) and Mike Nolan (San Francisco), and all of them made a change at the quarterback position. Alex Smith was drafted by the Niners with the first overall pick, Cleveland brought in Trent Dilfer and drafted Charlie Frye, and Miami turned the team over to Gus Frerotte -- at least for the short term. This year, there are more questions at the signal-caller position than I can ever remember in the NFL. With three weeks left before the start of free agency, there are more internal discussions about quarterbacks than all other positions combined.
I don't think there are 12 teams that feel totally comfortable with their QB situation, and that means 20 teams are mulling over their options. Those options include terminating the starter, restructuring his contract up or down, getting competition on the roster to have more options, drafting one of the first-round candidates in the upcoming draft, or changing the offense to fit the skills of the player on the roster. Of course, the reality that there are 10 new head coaches this offseason means there should be significant volatility, because new coaches want their own guy for the job -- just like last year.
Let's start with a quick review of the situation at the 10 teams with a new head coach.
1. Minnesota -- Daunte Culpepper is coming off a major injury, Brad Johnson played well in his absence. Culpepper has a contract but wants a new deal and has fired his agent and is considering representing himself. The new coach, Brad Childress, is a QB coach by trade and wants both players on the roster for competitive reasons. I would too, but it may be unrealistic to hope for the perfect situation.
2. New York Jets -- Chad Pennington is coming off a second serious surgery to his throwing shoulder, and the club will not know if he can throw the ball before a big roster bonus is due to him. New head coach Eric Mangini has coached against Chad many times and has seen what he looks like when he's 100 percent healthy, let alone partially well. This is a hard call to make, and when I ask the question, "Is Chad ever going to be good enough to overtake Tom Brady and the Patriots for the division title," I'm not so sure. I would insist on a restructured contract down and pushing back the roster bonus or I would move in a different direction. There will be options in the draft where the Jets select at No. 4, and Jets fans would buy into a youth movement if the club came right out and said they were starting one.
3. Detroit -- Joey Harrington has already gone through two head coaches and now has the chance to be coached by Mike Martz as his offensive coordinator under new head coach Rod Marinelli. Martz has worked wonders with undrafted QBs Kurt Warner and Marc Bulger. Martz may be in Detroit a very short time before he gets another head coaching position, but I would take one more look at Harrington if I were Matt Millen and the staff. The last thing I would want to see is Harrington blossom somewhere else like Jake Plummer did in Denver.
4. Green Bay -- Brett Favre is headed straight to the Hall of Fame when he's eligible, and that doesn't happen until he retires. The Packers have a real dilemma on their hands and a huge cap charge if he's on the roster. No one wants to be the person in Green Bay to show Brett the door, but it may come to that even though Aaron Rogers is not ready to play. The honeymoon period for new head coach Mike McCarthy starts now, and a year from now, he could be in worse shape than he is now if he puts off the Favre decision. The Pack would open up over $7 million of cap space if Brett retires.
5. Buffalo -- J.P. Losman wasn't ready to play in 2006, and it cost GM Tom Donahoe his job and sent head coach Mike Mularkey packing as well. Dick Jauron is a defensive-minded head coach, and ball security and a conservative game plan will be his desire. Kelly Holcomb is a better answer in the minds of the Bills players and probably the coaches. The QB decision in Buffalo is the most important decision this franchise will make this year, and an open competition may cause more harm than good with the players and fans.
6. Oakland -- Kerry Collins really struggled down the stretch and seems to have lost the confidence of some of his teammates. Art Shell has to make this call fairly quickly, but where does he turn to if he lets him go, considering Mr. Davis at his press conference said, "It may take a short while to get it back," referring to the old Raider swagger? Is Art Shell the kind of coach to head into the draft for a top signal-caller, or does he look at a young guy like Josh McCown in free agency who was 9-10 as a starter for the Cardinals? Surely, McCown could have a better record with the Raiders.
7. New Orleans -- Aaron Brooks puts up the numbers but doesn't win the big games. At least that is the public perception of him. The new head coach, Sean Payton, is a quarterback coach by trade, and maybe he can get more out of Brooks -- or maybe he evaluates him and decides his $6.25 million salary is overpayment for the results. I believe the Saints take advantage of their draft position and build around a top pick like Matt Leinart or Vince Young.
8. Houston -- David Carr just got the option bonus that makes him the Texans QB for three more years. Gary Kubiak could have elected to take a cheaper two-year option, which might have created more intrigue headed into the draft about his long-range future. Now, it appears Houston is set at QB. I sure hope they get some protection help for him, and that Kubiak teaches him to get the ball out of his hand quicker.
9. Kansas City -- Trent Green is an all-pro quarterback, and Herm Edwards isn't going to rock the boat on this situation, but he may need to start looking at the long-range plans. A young guy like Brodie Croyle (Alabama) in the third round, if they could get him there, would be perfect.
10. St. Louis -- Marc Bulger is a very good quarterback, and new head coach Scott Linehan knows he has a winner under center. This is not the time to upset the situation.
I think it would be fair to say that more than half of the new head coaches will make some kind of change at the quarterback position this year, but there are still a number of other situations around the league that make this a year to remember.
Does it sound like a good idea to let Drew Brees test the market if you are running the Chargers? If A.J. Smith lets him do that, he's gone. If they decide to transition tag him and let the league set his value, then negotiations don't have to get ugly. The Chargers have enough salary cap space to match an offer that he may get from another team. If they are uncomfortable with that plan, then just franchise tag him again and play another year under the same circumstances as 2005. It sounds expensive, but there is no $10 million signing bonus to worry about either.
In Baltimore, Ozzie Newsome told me that there will be quarterback competition for Kyle Boller, which is what the team needs at this point. Boller has been in the league long enough now to compete with a veteran, and if the Ravens bring in a Jon Kitna or Josh McCown or even a Kerry Collins (if he gets cut in Oakland) it should strengthen the team.
Tennessee has some decisions to make with Steve McNair's contract and the future of Billy Volek. There's no doubt McNair is on the downside of his career, and any future contract needs to reflect that -- instead of a big signing bonus for past glories. The Titans need to escape from salary cap jail, not get an extended sentence. The draft does present options for them, and offensive coordinator Norm Chow has worked with Leinart and Jay Cutler.
In Cincinnati, most feel Carson Palmer will be back at 100 percent, but the Bengals will probably lose Kitna in free agency, so a capable backup who can start until Palmer is ready is a necessity. The signing of Doug Johnson doesn't satisfy the issue. They need Doug for minicamps and offseason workouts. Someone like Brad Johnson or a Gus Frerotte-type is what the doctor ordered in this situation.
In Washington, it's anyone's guess how long Mark Brunell keeps the starting job before he gives way to last year's first-round pick Jason Campbell. Pat Ramsey should be wearing another uniform by the summer, but why would Joe Gibbs start the Campbell era if he isn't going to remain as the Commanders head coach for a long period of time?
In Atlanta, Mike Vick isn't going anywhere, especially with close to $20 million as a cap hit if he were to be gone, but the Falcons must figure out how to maximize Vick's skills and get back into the playoffs. My advice is stop trying to make him something he is not, and tell him to run for 100 yards a game and throw for 150 yards. He may not last more than a few years in the league, but the Falcons will win more games while they get Schaub ready to play.
Finally, unless your locker room has a name plate over a locker that says Manning, Brady, Roethlisberger, Hasselbeck, McNabb, Plummer, Leftwich, Bledsoe, Delhomme or Green, there are questions being asked in staff rooms around the league, and there have to be answers before March 3.
, Delhomme or Green, there are questions being asked in staff rooms around the league, and there have to be answers before March 3.
