tayloner
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Every year, teams get smarter and smarter about how they manipulate the various roster rules to 1.) make sure the best 48 players are active week 1, 2.) maintain the highest likelihood of keeping players with promise/contribution potential inside the building and 3.) leveraging the IR list to preserve potential contributors for later in the season. The form this takes is usually cutting vested veteran players (who thereby aren't subject to waiver claims) to either bring them back to the 53-man roster or sign them to the practice squad and elevate them on gameday W1. This allows certain injured or "injured" players (if you know what I mean) to be placed on IR, freeing up roster spots while keeping said injured/"injured" players inside the building. Last year, players cut who eventually ended up contributing were Brett Maher, Jake McQuaide, C.J Goodwin and Cooper Rush if I recall correctly. In 2021, it was McQuadie again and I think Jeremy Sprinkle as well.
So here is my 53-man roster prediction, as well as some detail on the possible roster "games" the Cowboys could play to maximize the impact the current 90-man roster has on the a.) 48-man gameday active roster, b.) the 53-man actual roster and c.) the 16 man practice squad. To be clear, this isn't necessarily a hard and fast "EXACT" prediction, rather I'm attempting to provide detail on some of the roster elements that *can* be taken advantage of to accomplish numbers 1, 2 and 3 above.
QB (3)
Dak Prescott
Cooper Rush
Trey Lance
RB (3)
Tony Pollard
Deuce Vaughn
Rico Dowdle
WR (6)
CeeDee Lamb
Brandin Cooks
Michael Gallup
Jalen Tolbert
KaVontae Turpin
Jalen Brooks
TE (5)
Jake Ferguson
Peyton Hendershot
Luke Schoonmaker
Sean McKeon
John Stephens Jr. (see note below)
OL (10)
Tyron Smith
Tyler Smith
Tyler Biadasz
Zack Martin
Terence Steele
Asim Richards
Matt Farniok
TJ Bass
Matt Waletzko
Josh Ball (see note below)
DL (8)
DeMarcus Lawrence
Osa Odighizuwa
Dorance Armstrong Jr.
Sam Williams
Mazi Smith
Chauncey Gholston
Neville Gallimore
Villami Fehoko Jr.
LB (5)
Micah Parsons
Leighton Van Der Esch
Damone Clark
Devin Harper
DeMarvion Overshown (see note below)
CB (6)
Trevon Diggs
Stephon Gilmore
DeRon Bland
Nashon Wright
Kelvin Joseph
Eric Scott Jr.
S (6)
Jayron Kearse
Donovan Wilson
Malik Hooker
Israel Mukuamu
Marquese Bell
Juanyeh Thomas
Specialists (1)
Bryan Anger
This totals out to our "initial" 53-man roster. However, there is much work that is left to do (should the team so choose).
Roster "Games"
The roster "games" teams play break out into a few main categories, which are 1.) players who make the initial 53-man roster but then are subsequently immediately moved to IR, thereby freeing up a roster spot. Some of these players are actually injured, while some of these players suffered a mysterious "injury" in the last preseason game which allows the team to essentially hide them within the organization for a developmental year. 2.) players who were recently cut but are then re-signed to take those open roster spots (usually vested veterans not subject to waiver claims), and 3.) players signed to the practice squad but expected to contribute week 1 by being elevated on gameday.
Players Moved To IR
John Stephens Jr.
Josh Ball
DeMarvion Overshown
Moving these 3 players to IR immediately after 53-man cutdowns accomplishes "protecting" them from waiver claims, while also freeing up 3 additional roster spots. Stephens and Overshown are obvious given their ACL injuries, whereas it sounds like Ball is a candidate as well based on his injury in the final preseason game tonight (based on Twitter reports).
Vested Veterans Likely To Be Re-Signed or Signed To The Practice Squad (To Then Be Elevated On Gameday)
Jonathan Hankins
Dante Fowler
Brandon Aubrey
Trent Sieg
C.J. Goodwin
4 out of the 5 of these players are vested veterans, with the lone exception being Aubrey, who in this case I don't think has any shot of being claimed by another team therefore the team is willing to risk exposing him to waivers. Please note, it's HIGHLY unlikely all of these players are cut, but rather this is just an example of the candidates who I think are possible to fill this role of dropping off the 53-man roster before coming back in some fashion (either being re-signed or being signed to the practice squad than elevated). FYI, the way I determine this list is by reviewing the contract status of every player on Over The Cap and identifying the players that are vested veterans (4 or more years of service) and have very low (~$1mm or less) dead money if they were to be cut post-June 1st. These salary parameters are a strong hint at "cut and re-sign" candidates based on the team's activity in recent years. In this case for this year, that has highlighted Hankins, Fowler, Sieg and Goodwin.
So all in all, my very rough prediction is that the 53 players mentioned above make the roster on Tuesday. THEN, Stephans/Ball/Overshown are moved to IR, taking the roster down to 50. Finally, 3 of the 5 players mentioned above are re-signed. Then, the other 2 of the 5 are signed to the practice squad and elevated on gameday.
VOILA, there you have it. Now, there is absolutely zero chance of this being anywhere near 100% correct. No way. But, it provides a "rough" framework of how I believe most teams are looking at cutdown day these days, where manipulating the roster rules is *almost* as important as identifying which of the talent on your 90-man roster is actually worth keeping in the organization. For sh*ts and giggles, here is my prediction of the 14-man practice squad as well. And yes, I say 14-man instead of 16-man, because as mentioned above 2 of the 16 spots are likely to be taken up by 2 of the "top 55" in the organization, thereby leaving 14 additional practice squad spots.
Malik Davis
Hunter Luepke
Simi Fehoko
Dennis Houston
Dontario Drummond
Earl Bostick Jr.
Chuma Edoga
Brock Hoffman
Quinton Bohanna
Isaiah Land
Jabril Cox
Malik Jefferson
Tyler Coyle
I post this simply because I'm a weirdo who gets annoyed by the various Cowboys reporters posting these "cut-and-dry" 53-man roster predictions when in reality it's much more nuanced than that and usually affects 55 to 60 players overall in the organization. Apologies in advance for the long post. Thanks for reading, and happy roster cut week!
So here is my 53-man roster prediction, as well as some detail on the possible roster "games" the Cowboys could play to maximize the impact the current 90-man roster has on the a.) 48-man gameday active roster, b.) the 53-man actual roster and c.) the 16 man practice squad. To be clear, this isn't necessarily a hard and fast "EXACT" prediction, rather I'm attempting to provide detail on some of the roster elements that *can* be taken advantage of to accomplish numbers 1, 2 and 3 above.
QB (3)
Dak Prescott
Cooper Rush
Trey Lance
RB (3)
Tony Pollard
Deuce Vaughn
Rico Dowdle
WR (6)
CeeDee Lamb
Brandin Cooks
Michael Gallup
Jalen Tolbert
KaVontae Turpin
Jalen Brooks
TE (5)
Jake Ferguson
Peyton Hendershot
Luke Schoonmaker
Sean McKeon
John Stephens Jr. (see note below)
OL (10)
Tyron Smith
Tyler Smith
Tyler Biadasz
Zack Martin
Terence Steele
Asim Richards
Matt Farniok
TJ Bass
Matt Waletzko
Josh Ball (see note below)
DL (8)
DeMarcus Lawrence
Osa Odighizuwa
Dorance Armstrong Jr.
Sam Williams
Mazi Smith
Chauncey Gholston
Neville Gallimore
Villami Fehoko Jr.
LB (5)
Micah Parsons
Leighton Van Der Esch
Damone Clark
Devin Harper
DeMarvion Overshown (see note below)
CB (6)
Trevon Diggs
Stephon Gilmore
DeRon Bland
Nashon Wright
Kelvin Joseph
Eric Scott Jr.
S (6)
Jayron Kearse
Donovan Wilson
Malik Hooker
Israel Mukuamu
Marquese Bell
Juanyeh Thomas
Specialists (1)
Bryan Anger
This totals out to our "initial" 53-man roster. However, there is much work that is left to do (should the team so choose).
Roster "Games"
The roster "games" teams play break out into a few main categories, which are 1.) players who make the initial 53-man roster but then are subsequently immediately moved to IR, thereby freeing up a roster spot. Some of these players are actually injured, while some of these players suffered a mysterious "injury" in the last preseason game which allows the team to essentially hide them within the organization for a developmental year. 2.) players who were recently cut but are then re-signed to take those open roster spots (usually vested veterans not subject to waiver claims), and 3.) players signed to the practice squad but expected to contribute week 1 by being elevated on gameday.
Players Moved To IR
John Stephens Jr.
Josh Ball
DeMarvion Overshown
Moving these 3 players to IR immediately after 53-man cutdowns accomplishes "protecting" them from waiver claims, while also freeing up 3 additional roster spots. Stephens and Overshown are obvious given their ACL injuries, whereas it sounds like Ball is a candidate as well based on his injury in the final preseason game tonight (based on Twitter reports).
Vested Veterans Likely To Be Re-Signed or Signed To The Practice Squad (To Then Be Elevated On Gameday)
Jonathan Hankins
Dante Fowler
Brandon Aubrey
Trent Sieg
C.J. Goodwin
4 out of the 5 of these players are vested veterans, with the lone exception being Aubrey, who in this case I don't think has any shot of being claimed by another team therefore the team is willing to risk exposing him to waivers. Please note, it's HIGHLY unlikely all of these players are cut, but rather this is just an example of the candidates who I think are possible to fill this role of dropping off the 53-man roster before coming back in some fashion (either being re-signed or being signed to the practice squad than elevated). FYI, the way I determine this list is by reviewing the contract status of every player on Over The Cap and identifying the players that are vested veterans (4 or more years of service) and have very low (~$1mm or less) dead money if they were to be cut post-June 1st. These salary parameters are a strong hint at "cut and re-sign" candidates based on the team's activity in recent years. In this case for this year, that has highlighted Hankins, Fowler, Sieg and Goodwin.
So all in all, my very rough prediction is that the 53 players mentioned above make the roster on Tuesday. THEN, Stephans/Ball/Overshown are moved to IR, taking the roster down to 50. Finally, 3 of the 5 players mentioned above are re-signed. Then, the other 2 of the 5 are signed to the practice squad and elevated on gameday.
VOILA, there you have it. Now, there is absolutely zero chance of this being anywhere near 100% correct. No way. But, it provides a "rough" framework of how I believe most teams are looking at cutdown day these days, where manipulating the roster rules is *almost* as important as identifying which of the talent on your 90-man roster is actually worth keeping in the organization. For sh*ts and giggles, here is my prediction of the 14-man practice squad as well. And yes, I say 14-man instead of 16-man, because as mentioned above 2 of the 16 spots are likely to be taken up by 2 of the "top 55" in the organization, thereby leaving 14 additional practice squad spots.
Malik Davis
Hunter Luepke
Simi Fehoko
Dennis Houston
Dontario Drummond
Earl Bostick Jr.
Chuma Edoga
Brock Hoffman
Quinton Bohanna
Isaiah Land
Jabril Cox
Malik Jefferson
Tyler Coyle
I post this simply because I'm a weirdo who gets annoyed by the various Cowboys reporters posting these "cut-and-dry" 53-man roster predictions when in reality it's much more nuanced than that and usually affects 55 to 60 players overall in the organization. Apologies in advance for the long post. Thanks for reading, and happy roster cut week!
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