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It's real long, but I trimmed it up some and added a legend. 
Bold = NFC East
Orange = Vince Young predictions (I know youse love him)
Red = Worst predictions of the year.
Puke= Bash Snyder
Another season of bad predictions
By Gregg Easterbrook
Special to Page 2
The season has corkscrewed to a close, and now all space aliens, mega-babes and football enthusiasts face that long, desolate offseason until two-a-days resume in July. That makes the time appropriate to point out a fact that many Americans don't believe -- there are more days in the year without football than with! Discounting college spring games and the pro preseason, contests that even the immediate relatives of players have trouble caring about, during 2007, football games will occur in the United States in 23 of the year's 52 weeks. Forty-four percent of the weeks there will be football; 56 percent of the weeks there will not be. Monday night telecasts? Counting "Monday Night Football" on ESPN and college games, 20 of the 52 weeks of 2007, or 38 percent of Mondays. Two Mondays without football for every one Monday with -- can that be legal? Figuring down to the days, I roughly estimate there will be about 90 days in 2007 when a person can either watch a football game on national television or easily attend a local high school contest. That's 25 percent of the days of 2007. Only one day in four brightened by football. Can that be legal?
The season might have ended, but Tuesday Morning Quarterback has saved the best for last: my annual Bad Predictions Review. And if you read this thinking, "Wait a minute, a month before the draft we predicted the Texans would select Mario Williams instead of Reggie Bush" -- actual prediction from the Houston Chronicle -- remember, this is my Bad predictions review.
Category One: Offseason Predictions
Six of the top 10 teams in last June's ESPN.com's 2006 power rankings failed to make the playoffs. Last July, "SportsCenter" had football pundits Mike Golic, Sean Salisbury and Mark Schlereth spend a week producing an elaborate complete-season forecast. Their predicted Super Bowl winner? The Carolina Panthers, who failed to make the playoffs. They forecast Indianapolis would lose in the first round of the playoffs, while the Commanders, whose actual finish was 5-11, would be the league's third-best team. Four of the group's predicted postseason entrants (Atlanta, Carolina, Pittsburgh and Washington) failed to achieve a winning record.
Over at Sports Illustrated, in June 2006 Jeffri Chadiha predicted Chicago would fail to make the playoffs. "Plaxico Burress won't be the only unhappy person in the Tri-State area, there will be plenty of Giants fans joining him because their team will be home for the postseason," Chadiha foresaw; Jersey/A made the playoffs. Nunyo Demasio of Sports Illustrated wrote that if the Chargers let Drew Brees go, "the franchise [faces] dark days." The Chargers let Brees go and finished with the best regular-season record in the league. Demasio forecast Carolina to win the Super Bowl while the Cleveland Browns would be "contenders" and "the NFL's most-improved team." Cleveland finished 4-12. Andrew Perloff of Sports Illustrated predicted Baltimore would fail to make the postseason: "The Ravens will [not be playing] in January. Take it to the bank. Take it to the M&T Bank Stadium." Baltimore finished 13-3 and opened the postseason at home at M&T Bank Stadium. Peter King of Sports Illustrated predicted Dallas would beat New England in the Super Bowl; Dallas failed to make it past the first round. King predicted Drew Bledsoe would quarterback the Cowboys' Super Bowl win, though in 2005, King had called Bledsoe "too old to be really good anymore." Meanwhile in order for New England to have appeared in the Super Bowl, it would have needed to win the AFC Championship. Yet later, in the week before the actual AFC Championship, King would predicted New England would lose.
At NBC Sports, Michael Ventre forecast a Super Bowl of New England over Carolina. Ventre dismissed the Colts as "wannabes," adding, "unless the franchise does a roster overhaul and brings in some players with muscle and mean streaks -- especially on both sides of the line of scrimmage -- they'll again have a glowing record followed by an ignominious exit." Indianapolis dominated line play on both sides in its Super Bowl win. Ventre further forecast that Atlanta, Minnesota and Tampa "are legitimate dark-horse candidates to pull a surprise." They surprised only him, all missing the playoffs.
Greg Cote of the Miami Herald forecast a Super Bowl of Panthers over Chiefs; neither recorded a playoff victory. Bill Williamson of the Denver Post predicted the Miami Dolphins would go "all the way to the Super Bowl -- and beyond," which is a spacey thought. Miami finished 6-10. Williamson further declared that New Orleans signing Drew Brees "won't work." Brees made the Pro Bowl while New Orleans reached the NFC championship. (After writing in the offseason that New Orleans signing Brees was a big mistake, in December, Williamson wrote that signing Brees was "the best pickup of the 2006 offseason.") In a piece for MSNBC, Williamson foresaw, "There will be no surprise contenders. Of the 12 teams that made the playoffs in 2005, at least 10 stand a strong chance of returning." Five of the 2005 playoff teams returned to the 2006 postseason, while the Jets and Saints surprised by changing from terrible in 2005 to playoffs in 2006.
At the Boston Globe, Ron Borges foretold that Miami picking Daunte Culpepper over Brees was "a gamble that looks like it might pay off." Culpepper was benched. At CBS Sportsline, Pete Prisco wrote that acquiring Culpepper made Miami "a legitimate Super Bowl threat." Signing Aaron Brooks, Prisco predicted, "could be a move that pays off in a big way for the Raiders." As for the Jets, "It's a two-year rebuild for this team." Of Chicago's quarterback, Prisco predicted, "Don't give up on Rex Grossman. The kid has tools." Maybe he left them in his pickup truck!
At MSNBC, Don Pierson -- whose column is titled "Ask the NFL Expert" -- forecast, "The Saints aren't very good and probably won't make the playoffs." Vince Young "won't even get to play." Young was Rookie of the Year. The Texans will be a force in 2006, Pierson foresaw, because "Gary Kubiak should be able to construct an offense a whole lot better" than the team's 30th finish of 2005. Houston finished 28th on offense. Meanwhile The Sporting News forecast that Kevin Jones of Detroit "likely will make the Pro Bowl." Jones ran for 689 yards.
Jeremy Green of Scouts Inc. predicted Dallas would win the NFC East, while Keith Kidd of the same service forecast Washington would win the same division; neither team did. Another Scouts Inc. prediction, from Gary Horton: "The biggest offseason move by the Cowboys may be the acquisition of veteran kicker Mike Vanderjagt. His accuracy could result in a couple of wins." Vanderjagt was waived after blowing two game-winning kicks.
Category Two: Predictions as the Season Begins
The Wall Street Journal forecast Indianapolis as the Super Bowl winner, although defeating the Panthers, who failed to make the playoffs. The Journal added that the Commanders' roster "should be improved enough to yield a division title." Washington failed to make the playoffs.
USA Today offered six dueling Super Bowl picks as opening night approached: Colts over Panthers (predicted twice), Panthers over Colts, Colts over Falcons, Panthers over Broncos and Seahawks over Bengals. All wrong! Plus seven of USA Today's 12 predicted Super Bowl entrants failed to reach the postseason. The Associated Press predicted that Baltimore, Chicago, Jersey/B and San Diego would fail to make the postseason while the Carolina Panthers "are Super Bowl material."
Chris Mortensen of ESPN.com forecast a Super Bowl of Dallas over Cincinnati; neither won a playoff game. Mort predicted New Orleans would be the league's worst team at 2-14; the Saints reached the NFC championship. "The Bengals won't just tear it up offensively, their defense will play at a higher level," Mortensen wrote; Cincinnati finished 30th on defense.
Adam Schein of Fox Sports predicted a Super Bowl of Panthers over Bengals; neither reached the playoffs. Culpepper, Schein foresaw, "will be in the MVP mix." For the Jets, "it's a rebuilding season." Schein predicted, "The Commanders are loaded with talent on defense -- Gregg Williams' unit will once again frustrate the opposition;" the Commanders finished 31st on defense. San Diego? "I haven't seen enough to put San Diego in the playoffs." Tampa? "Jon Gruden's Buccaneers will be a big factor in the playoff race." New Orleans? "This team will fall short."
Just before opening night, Peter King switched his Super Bowl pick from Dallas over New England to Dallas over Indianapolis. He foresaw another big year for Seattle: "The Seahawks are the only NFL team that can say, with supreme confidence, 'We're going 6-0 in our division.''' Seattle finished 3-3 in its division. He prophesied of the San Francisco quarterback, "I don't see Alex Smith leading the Niners out of the wilderness, but I don't see him being the next Heath Shuler, either." He isn't! In 2006, Shuler became a congressman. King saw Miami winning its division at 10-6 because "Nick Saban made a great call on Daunte Culpepper," choosing him over Brees. Flash forward: Halfway through the season with Miami foundering, King would write, "The Dolphins long for the days before [selecting] Culpepper" because they should have signed Brees.
In its season preview issue, Sports Illustrated forecast a Super Bowl of Miami versus Carolina; neither made the playoffs. The previous year, Sports Illustrated had forecast a Super Bowl of Carolina over Indianapolis; neither made the Super Bowl. Five of Sports Illustrated's projected 12 playoff teams -- the Broncos, Dolphins, Panthers, Commanders and Steelers -- failed to make the postseason. These bad predictions pale, however, in comparison to the tea-leaf-reading of ESPN The Magazine, "Published on Earth The Planet." In 2004, ESPN Mag predicted Kansas City would win the Super Bowl; the Chiefs failed to make the playoffs. In 2005, the Mag predicted Minnesota would win the Super Bowl; the Vikings failed to make the playoffs. In 2006, ESPN Mag predicted Miami would win the Super Bowl; the Dolphins failed to make the playoffs. For three consecutive years, ESPN Mag's predicted Super Bowl winner has not even qualified for the postseason. After the Dolphins opened 1-3, the Mag declared "there is no need to panic" in Miami. Dear Miami: You should have panicked!
Then there was the incredible ESPN.com meta-forecast. Twelve fulltime pro football pundits predicted the Super Bowl outcome. Their forecasts: Colts over Panthers (predicted six times), Panthers over Colts, Colts over Seahawks, Seahawks over Colts, Panthers over Patriots, Seahawks over Broncos, and Bengals over Cowboys. Twelve tries, all wrong! No ESPN expert forecast the Bears to make the Super Bowl, while 10 of ESPN.com's 24 projected Super Bowl entrants failed to make the playoffs. Also from the meta-forecast: Michael Smith had Michael Vick as MVP, Mike Golic had Bill Parcells as Coach of the Year and Merrill Hoge had Nick Saban as Coach of the Year.
College Bonus: CBS Sportsline predicted Ohio State would meet West Virginia in the BCS title game. West Virginia failed to make a BCS bowl.
Bad Quarterback Draft Predictions: Jay Cutler "could move ahead of Vince Young or perhaps even Matt Leinart," Clifton Brown of the New York Times wrote before the draft. The actual order was Young, Leinart, Cutler. "Matt Leinart may go second in the draft, he may go third, but he's not going to slip," Mel Kiper Jr. of ESPN declared before the draft. Leinart slipped to ninth. "Marcus Vick is going to be picked a lot higher than you think -- maybe as high as late third round," Matt Hayes of The Sporting News wrote shortly before the draft. Vick was not chosen in any round. (Marcus Vick "will be a star for the Miami Dolphins at wide receiver," Paul Zimmerman of Sports Illustrated added on September 1. The following day, Miami waived Vick. Although he was later re-signed by Miami, he caught zero passes on the season.) Clemson quarterback Charlie Whitehurst "could be this year's Charlie Frye," the Denver Post's Bill Williamson wrote before the draft. Perhaps that was an honor Whitehurst did not seek!
Predictions to remember: On draft day, Hoge said Brody Croyle will be a better quarterback than Vince Young. Croyle is currently third string at Kansas City. On draft day, Ron Jaworski of ESPN said Kellen Clemens will be a better quarterback than Young, Leinart or Cutler. Clemens is currently the backup at Jersey/B. "In five years we will talk about Clemens the way we talk about Tom Brady," Jaworski predicted.
This Is Football; It's Baseball Where You Cover All Bases: Reader Randall Good of Gettysburg, Pa., notes that before the Cowboys at Eagles game, Cris Carter predicted in writing on Yahoo's sports site that Philadelphia would win. In a video clip on the same site, Carter predicted Dallas would win.
Category Three: Midseason Predictions
Half the season is in the books, and patterns are emerging. What do the pundits predict now? "I'm reasonably sold on the Eagles" to win the Super Bowl, Michael Silver of Sports Illustrated wrote, while the main midseason Sports Illustrated article predicted a Super Bowl of Colts over Giants. "The Broncos' defense is great, better than Baltimore's hyped unit. And yes, the Denver defense is good enough to win a Super Bowl," Bill Williamson proffered in the Denver Post.
At the midseason mark, USA Today ran six more Super Bowl predictions: Colts over Falcons, Bears over Chargers, Patriots over Giants, Patriots over Bears and Colts over Bears -- the latter from Jeff Zillgitt. Sean Salisbury of ESPN also predicted, at midseason, Colts over Bears. These exceptions are essential to proving the rule: There are so many NFL predictions, somebody's got to be right.
Pete Prisco of CBS Sportsline foresaw that the injury to Donovan McNabb "will just about do it for the Eagles' playoff chances." When Mike Shanahan benched Jake Plummer for Jay Cutler, John Clayton of ESPN said Shanahan "has pulled off another brilliant move. By going down the stretch with rookie quarterback Jay Cutler … the Broncos appear set to enter the AFC playoffs." Denver went 2-3 under Cutler and missed the playoffs. Steve Silverman of MSNBC wrote at midseason that Tony Romo was the next Tom Brady while "the pieces are in place" for Cowboys to make Super Bowl. The pieces were what was left on the floor after the Cowboys' collapse.
Worst midseason prediction, from Jeffri Chadiha of Sports Illustrated: "The Indianapolis Colts will be exposed. They probably won't make a strong playoff run. They aren't going to win the Super Bowl."
Snyder to Hire Jeff George to Run New Restaurant Division: Last week Red Zone Capital, the investment firm of Chainsaw Dan Snyder, acquired Johnny Rockets, the 1950s nostalgia-burger chain. Here are some of the sweeping changes Chainsaw Dan plans:
• Fry cooks, busboys to be fired weekly.
• Successful menu items such as cheeseburgers to be dropped; Snyder personally will choose recipe for new seaweed burger.
• Instead of singing "That'll Be the Day" and "It's My Party," waiters and waitresses will sing "In A Gadda Da Vida."
• New corporate P.R. strategy will focus on denouncing media and suing anyone who mentions Johnny Rockets in print.
• Heinz ketchup to be replaced with Washington Commanders branded tomato-like product.
Life Imitates Art: Last month Tuesday Morning Quarterback made sport of television announcers who cry "it was almost intercepted!" when a defender barely touches the ball. First Indianapolis snap of the Super Bowl, Peyton Manning threw over the middle and Brian Urlacher, leaping as high as he could, barely grazed the pass with his fingertips, knocking it off course. Jim Nantz of CBS: "It was almost intercepted!"
Predictions From Beyond the Stars: "The pick for this year's come-from-the-dumps team is the Arizona Cardinals. … There might be a playoff game in that new stadium next January." -- Pete Prisco, CBS Sportsline. Clark Judge of the same organization predicted both Arizona and Detroit would make the playoffs. (Judge's justification: "Hey, five of Detroit's losses in 2005 were by no more than six points." In 2005, 45 percent of all NFL games were decided by no more than six points.) Jeremy Green of Scouts Inc. forecast, "The Cardinals have the potential to be the most explosive offense in the NFL." Arizona finished 18th on offense. Michael Smith of ESPN.com had the Lions winning their division and Rod Marinelli as Coach of the Year. Don Banks of Sports Illustrated: "There's a nine- or 10-win season out there waiting to be had for Oakland. You heard it here first." That's the only place you heard it! Adam Schein of Fox Sports predicted the Lions would win "eight or nine games;" Peter King predicted Detroit would be the "surprise team" of 2006, winning its division at 10-6. Detroit was last in its division at 3-13. (King: "Jon Kitna will make few of the glaring errors Joey Harrington made." Actual: Kitna threw 10 more interceptions than thrown by Harrington in 2005.) King further predicted David Boston would be the "surprise guy" of the season for the Buccaneers. A few days later Boston was waived.
Nick Saban Predictions: Mark Maske of the Washington Post: "Nick Saban has the look of being a big-time NFL coach, and it won't be long before he has the Dolphins in Super Bowl contention." Bill Williamson of the Denver Post: "Nick Saban is building something special in Miami." ESPN's John Clayton: "Nick Saban … will catch or pass the Patriots" in 2006. The Associated Press: Miami will win the AFC East because "Players have bought into Nick Saban's system." Peter King on NBC's "Football Night in America" on December 31, 2006: "Nick Saban does not want to go anywhere. Saban is not going to leave the Miami Dolphins. Saban is not going to go to Alabama. Saban is not going anywhere." Three days later Saban took the Alabama job. Nick Saban: "I'm not going to be the Alabama coach."
Subset -- "Could" Predictions: The qualifier "could" runs through many bad predictions. Practically anything "could" happen. Jennifer Lopez "could" go out to dinner with me; Congress "could" set aside partisan bickering in the name of the national interest. Gil Brandt, NFL.com: Houston "is a team that could surprise people [and] make the playoffs." Clark Judge, CBS Sportsline:Drew Henson "has shown signs of becoming the quarterback who could figure into the future of the Cowboys." Henson was waived in training camp. Andrew Perloff of Sports Illustrated: Craig Nall "could follow Matt Hasselbeck's lead and go from being Brett Favre's backup to the Pro Bowl." Nall was third string all season for the Bills and did not appear in a game. Bonus: Megabucks consulting firm Booz Allen Hamilton predicted bird flu "could" cause the entire Internet to shut down.
Subset -- Weirdly Specific Predictions: Pete Prisco, CBS Sportsline: "Ben Watson caught 29 passes in 2005 and he will at least double that this season." Watson caught 49 passes. Jason Whitlock, Kansas City Star: Larry Johnson will run for 110 yards in the Chiefs' final regular season game. He ran for 138 yards. Michael Wilbon, the Washington Post: The Bears can win the Super Bowl if Devin Hester's kickoff returns reach "near midfield twice." Peter King, Sports Illustrated, of his predicted Super Bowl: Terrell Owens will have six receptions. Not five, not seven -- six.
Subset -- Sean Salisbury Predictions: In October on "SportsCenter," Salisbury forecast a Super Bowl of Indianapolis over Chicago. So he's a seer? Then when the playoffs began, Salisbury predicted a Super Bowl of San Diego against New Orleans. Sean -- be true to your school! Then the week before the Super Bowl, Salisbury predicted that if Devin Hester returned a kick for a touchdown, the Bears would beat the Colts.
Wacky Martini Watch: Chicago has a booming nightclub scene, and is also becoming the world capital of strange cocktails. Reader Chris Hanson of Oak Park, Ill., nominates this wacky martini from a trendy Chicago night spot: the bartender "infuses Skyy vodka with pomegranate, peppercorns and thyme; adds some red-wine syrup; and squeezes in the juice of a lime." Not shaken or stirred, infused!
Bad New Orleans Saints Predictions: "No one should make the mistake of assuming the Saints are ready to compete for a playoff spot." -- Don Banks of Sports Illustrated, July 2006. In January, the same Banks predicted the Saints would win the NFC title game. None of ESPN.com's 12 preseason forecasts had New Orleans making the playoffs.
Where Will Reggie Play? "The Texans will select USC running back Reggie Bush with the No. 1 pick in this April's NFL draft, team and league sources told Chris Mortensen," ESPN.com declared in January 2006. The next day, Mortensen added that "no matter what anyone says," Houston was "certain" to draft Bush. "Reggie Bush will be the first pick in the draft," Mel Kiper Jr. said on ESPN radio in January 2006. "Reggie Bush is going number one, it's just a question of to who," Kiper reiterated on ESPN television in March. "I just don't see [Houston] passing on USC running back Reggie Bush," Kiper said two days before draft. On Friday night before the noon Saturday start of the draft, the Texans used their first choice on Mario Williams. At 10 a.m. Saturday as ESPN draft coverage began, host Suzy Kolber asked an ESPN panel who was surprised by the Texans taking Williams instead of Bush. All the panelists said they were surprised -- except for Mortensen, who declared that he had never expected Bush to be chosen first. Kolber asked about the reports Bush would go first, and Mortensen answered with a sneer, "Those projections were made by the media." Mort -- you are the media! Mortensen declared he had known since Thursday that the Texans were choosing Williams. Oh, so you knew all along: you just forgot to say so! (I know it's not the Boys, but I didn't feel like changing the legend)
What Will Reggie Weigh? At the Indianapolis Combine, Reggie Bush weighed in at 201 pounds, but told the media he "expects to be at 205 pounds" by the USC Pro Day in April. The next week Peter King wrote, "I expect Bush will weigh about 208 pounds" at USC Pro Day. "About" 208 pounds -- so my prediction may be off by a few ounces! LenDale White was 238 pounds at the Combine, and predicted he would be 233 pounds on Pro Day. Actual weigh-ins from USC Pro Day: Bush 201 pounds, White 244 pounds.
Category Five: Playoff Predictions
Now it gets interesting: What did the experts say once the playoff field was known? On the eve of the wild-card round, USA Today ran its third set of dueling Super Bowl predictions: Chargers over Saints (predicted twice), Ravens over Eagles (predicted twice), Chargers over Bears and Colts over Bears. So once again USA Today did have a correct prediction -- but by a different guy! At midseason, Jeff Zillgitt said Colts over Bears. Once the playoffs started he switched to predicting Chargers over Saints, while Jarrett Bell switched to predicting Colts over Bears. Considering USA Today's triple-predictions format, each of its six NFL writers got three shots at a Super Bowl prediction; the paper finished 2 of 18.
On CBS television, Dan Marino predicted a Super Bowl of San Diego versus New Orleans, Shannon Sharpe predicted New Orleans versus Baltimore. On ESPN television, Chris Berman predicted New England versus Seattle. All wrong!
Ron Borges of the Boston Globe forecast a Super Bowl of New Orleans over San Diego -- though earlier he had predicted New Orleans would finish last in its division. Aaron Schatz used the incredibly scientifically advanced database of Footballoutsiders.com to forecast Baltimore as the Super Bowl favorite; then after the Ravens lost, forecast New England as the winner.
Coming into championship week, Sports Illustrated's main prediction was a Patriots-Bears Super Bowl, while the consensus of Sports Illustrated NFL writers predicted a Colts-Saints Super Bowl. That about covered the bases! Of ESPN's forecasters, all eight said New Orleans would defeat Chicago to reach the Super Bowl. This despite the Bears being a 14-3 team playing host to an 11-6 club in the Saints. Sean Salisbury, who at midseason had predicted the Bears would make the Super Bowl, and Joe Theismann, who at midseason called the Bears "the class of the NFC," both predicted Chicago would lose the NFC championship at home to a team with an inferior record. Only the ESPN computer, Accuscore -- which simply endlessly predicts that the team with the best statistics will win -- correctly called the NFC championship. Though before you go trusting computers, Accuscore liked New England over Indianapolis.
New Frontiers in Bad Predictions: In August 2006, Paul Zimmerman of Sports Illustrated wrote that him picking Indianapolis to win the Super Bowl "won't happen in the near future." In January 2007, Zimmerman picked Indianapolis to win the Super Bowl. That is -- Zimmerman made a bad prediction about his own predictions! Zimmerman's forecast that Indianapolis would win the Super Bowl came one week after predicting Indianapolis would lose the AFC championship. Zimmerman also predicted Chicago would lose the NFC championship, writing, "One thing I don't like about the Bears is their special teams." Bears' special teams to that point had scored six touchdowns! Meanwhile Dennis Dillon of The Sporting News wrote of Denver's decision to switch to Jay Cutler, "This move could lead to the Broncos making a deep run into the playoffs, but it also could blow up in their faces." Denver missed the postseason on a field goal in overtime, meaning the Cutler decision neither caused a deep run nor blew up. TMQ admires this Bad Prediction for its sheer audacity -- seemingly so vague as to predict the full range of possibilities, it still managed to be wrong!
Category Six: Bad Super Bowl Predictions
The day after Chicago and Indianapolis won the Super Bowl invites, Mike Florio of Profootballtalk.com predicted the Colts would take the Lombardi Trophy by 10 points. The night before the game, Florio switched sides and said Chicago would win. Mike -- be true to your school! Florio: "The Bears have constructed a game plan that will focus on chewing up the clock via the efforts of running backs Thomas Jones and Cedric Benson." Chicago coaches called 31 passing plays and 17 rushing plays.
ESPN.com offered no fewer than 21 dueling Super Bowl exact final score projections and all, of course, were wrong, though NFL editor Peter Lawrence-Riddell barely missed at Colts 28, Bears 17.
Then there was the incredible celebrity Super Bowl ring-up conducted by David Nielsen of Scripps Howard News Service. Annually for 18 years, Scripps Howard has phoned a surfeit of celebrities before the big game and asked their predictions. A sampling of this year's answers: Dwyane Wade predicted Bears, 28-24. Charlie Sheen said Colts, 37-33. Mickey Rooney said Bears, 24-14. Jennie Finch said Colts, 34-27. Bob Cousy said Colts by the odd score of 37-12. Dionne Warwick said Colts, 31-28. Actor Jim Caviezel said Colts, 31-20. (Caviezel played Jesus in "The Passion of the Christ" and -- I am not making this up -- has said that to method-act sorrow on the cross, he thought about the Minnesota Vikings' Super Bowl losses.) Alfred Rascon, a retired Army major who won the Medal of Honor, said Bears, 21-14. Actor John Amos said Bears, 24-17. Needless to say you have guessed that of the dozens of celebrities called by Nielsen, none predicted the exact final score.
Worst Prediction of the Year, Fourth Runner-Up: Dan Pompei, The Sporting News. At the halfway mark of the season, Pompei wrote that the Bears will "fade" while the Dolphins have "a strong finish." Jake Plummer, Pompei added, "is a better quarterback than he has shown, expect him to prove it in the second half of the season."
Worst Prediction of the Year, Third Runner-Up: Tuesday Morning Quarterback, spoken on the ESPNews show Hotlist. "Dallas is going to stick with Drew Bledsoe. Bill Parcells has been around long enough to know not to change horses in midstream of a playoff push."
Worst Prediction of the Year, Second Runner Up: Terry Bradshaw, Fox Sports. "The Eagles cannot make the playoffs." Predicted two weeks before the Eagles made the playoffs.
Worst Prediction of the Year, First Runner-Up: Mike Florio of Profootballtalk.com: "We predict for both the Bears and the Colts a tough time in 2006."
Worst Prediction of the Year: Bob Oates, Los Angeles Times. Oates predicted Cincinnati, Denver, Detroit, Miami, Pittsburgh and Washington would reach the postseason -- all missed -- while Chicago would not make the playoffs. He said the Lions had a realistic chance of advancing to the Super Bowl. And the Indianapolis Colts? They will "flame out" because Peyton Manning "isn't a natural quarterback."
In addition to writing Tuesday Morning Quarterback, Gregg Easterbrook is the author of "The Progress Paradox: How Life Gets Better While People Feel Worse" and other books. He is also a contributing editor for The New Republic, The Atlantic Monthly and The Washington Monthly, and a visiting fellow at the Brookings Institution. Sound off to Page 2 here.
Bold = NFC East
Orange = Vince Young predictions (I know youse love him)
Red = Worst predictions of the year.
Puke= Bash Snyder
Another season of bad predictions
By Gregg Easterbrook
Special to Page 2
The season has corkscrewed to a close, and now all space aliens, mega-babes and football enthusiasts face that long, desolate offseason until two-a-days resume in July. That makes the time appropriate to point out a fact that many Americans don't believe -- there are more days in the year without football than with! Discounting college spring games and the pro preseason, contests that even the immediate relatives of players have trouble caring about, during 2007, football games will occur in the United States in 23 of the year's 52 weeks. Forty-four percent of the weeks there will be football; 56 percent of the weeks there will not be. Monday night telecasts? Counting "Monday Night Football" on ESPN and college games, 20 of the 52 weeks of 2007, or 38 percent of Mondays. Two Mondays without football for every one Monday with -- can that be legal? Figuring down to the days, I roughly estimate there will be about 90 days in 2007 when a person can either watch a football game on national television or easily attend a local high school contest. That's 25 percent of the days of 2007. Only one day in four brightened by football. Can that be legal?
The season might have ended, but Tuesday Morning Quarterback has saved the best for last: my annual Bad Predictions Review. And if you read this thinking, "Wait a minute, a month before the draft we predicted the Texans would select Mario Williams instead of Reggie Bush" -- actual prediction from the Houston Chronicle -- remember, this is my Bad predictions review.
Category One: Offseason Predictions
Six of the top 10 teams in last June's ESPN.com's 2006 power rankings failed to make the playoffs. Last July, "SportsCenter" had football pundits Mike Golic, Sean Salisbury and Mark Schlereth spend a week producing an elaborate complete-season forecast. Their predicted Super Bowl winner? The Carolina Panthers, who failed to make the playoffs. They forecast Indianapolis would lose in the first round of the playoffs, while the Commanders, whose actual finish was 5-11, would be the league's third-best team. Four of the group's predicted postseason entrants (Atlanta, Carolina, Pittsburgh and Washington) failed to achieve a winning record.
Over at Sports Illustrated, in June 2006 Jeffri Chadiha predicted Chicago would fail to make the playoffs. "Plaxico Burress won't be the only unhappy person in the Tri-State area, there will be plenty of Giants fans joining him because their team will be home for the postseason," Chadiha foresaw; Jersey/A made the playoffs. Nunyo Demasio of Sports Illustrated wrote that if the Chargers let Drew Brees go, "the franchise [faces] dark days." The Chargers let Brees go and finished with the best regular-season record in the league. Demasio forecast Carolina to win the Super Bowl while the Cleveland Browns would be "contenders" and "the NFL's most-improved team." Cleveland finished 4-12. Andrew Perloff of Sports Illustrated predicted Baltimore would fail to make the postseason: "The Ravens will [not be playing] in January. Take it to the bank. Take it to the M&T Bank Stadium." Baltimore finished 13-3 and opened the postseason at home at M&T Bank Stadium. Peter King of Sports Illustrated predicted Dallas would beat New England in the Super Bowl; Dallas failed to make it past the first round. King predicted Drew Bledsoe would quarterback the Cowboys' Super Bowl win, though in 2005, King had called Bledsoe "too old to be really good anymore." Meanwhile in order for New England to have appeared in the Super Bowl, it would have needed to win the AFC Championship. Yet later, in the week before the actual AFC Championship, King would predicted New England would lose.
At NBC Sports, Michael Ventre forecast a Super Bowl of New England over Carolina. Ventre dismissed the Colts as "wannabes," adding, "unless the franchise does a roster overhaul and brings in some players with muscle and mean streaks -- especially on both sides of the line of scrimmage -- they'll again have a glowing record followed by an ignominious exit." Indianapolis dominated line play on both sides in its Super Bowl win. Ventre further forecast that Atlanta, Minnesota and Tampa "are legitimate dark-horse candidates to pull a surprise." They surprised only him, all missing the playoffs.
Greg Cote of the Miami Herald forecast a Super Bowl of Panthers over Chiefs; neither recorded a playoff victory. Bill Williamson of the Denver Post predicted the Miami Dolphins would go "all the way to the Super Bowl -- and beyond," which is a spacey thought. Miami finished 6-10. Williamson further declared that New Orleans signing Drew Brees "won't work." Brees made the Pro Bowl while New Orleans reached the NFC championship. (After writing in the offseason that New Orleans signing Brees was a big mistake, in December, Williamson wrote that signing Brees was "the best pickup of the 2006 offseason.") In a piece for MSNBC, Williamson foresaw, "There will be no surprise contenders. Of the 12 teams that made the playoffs in 2005, at least 10 stand a strong chance of returning." Five of the 2005 playoff teams returned to the 2006 postseason, while the Jets and Saints surprised by changing from terrible in 2005 to playoffs in 2006.
At the Boston Globe, Ron Borges foretold that Miami picking Daunte Culpepper over Brees was "a gamble that looks like it might pay off." Culpepper was benched. At CBS Sportsline, Pete Prisco wrote that acquiring Culpepper made Miami "a legitimate Super Bowl threat." Signing Aaron Brooks, Prisco predicted, "could be a move that pays off in a big way for the Raiders." As for the Jets, "It's a two-year rebuild for this team." Of Chicago's quarterback, Prisco predicted, "Don't give up on Rex Grossman. The kid has tools." Maybe he left them in his pickup truck!
At MSNBC, Don Pierson -- whose column is titled "Ask the NFL Expert" -- forecast, "The Saints aren't very good and probably won't make the playoffs." Vince Young "won't even get to play." Young was Rookie of the Year. The Texans will be a force in 2006, Pierson foresaw, because "Gary Kubiak should be able to construct an offense a whole lot better" than the team's 30th finish of 2005. Houston finished 28th on offense. Meanwhile The Sporting News forecast that Kevin Jones of Detroit "likely will make the Pro Bowl." Jones ran for 689 yards.
Jeremy Green of Scouts Inc. predicted Dallas would win the NFC East, while Keith Kidd of the same service forecast Washington would win the same division; neither team did. Another Scouts Inc. prediction, from Gary Horton: "The biggest offseason move by the Cowboys may be the acquisition of veteran kicker Mike Vanderjagt. His accuracy could result in a couple of wins." Vanderjagt was waived after blowing two game-winning kicks.
Category Two: Predictions as the Season Begins
The Wall Street Journal forecast Indianapolis as the Super Bowl winner, although defeating the Panthers, who failed to make the playoffs. The Journal added that the Commanders' roster "should be improved enough to yield a division title." Washington failed to make the playoffs.
USA Today offered six dueling Super Bowl picks as opening night approached: Colts over Panthers (predicted twice), Panthers over Colts, Colts over Falcons, Panthers over Broncos and Seahawks over Bengals. All wrong! Plus seven of USA Today's 12 predicted Super Bowl entrants failed to reach the postseason. The Associated Press predicted that Baltimore, Chicago, Jersey/B and San Diego would fail to make the postseason while the Carolina Panthers "are Super Bowl material."
Chris Mortensen of ESPN.com forecast a Super Bowl of Dallas over Cincinnati; neither won a playoff game. Mort predicted New Orleans would be the league's worst team at 2-14; the Saints reached the NFC championship. "The Bengals won't just tear it up offensively, their defense will play at a higher level," Mortensen wrote; Cincinnati finished 30th on defense.
Adam Schein of Fox Sports predicted a Super Bowl of Panthers over Bengals; neither reached the playoffs. Culpepper, Schein foresaw, "will be in the MVP mix." For the Jets, "it's a rebuilding season." Schein predicted, "The Commanders are loaded with talent on defense -- Gregg Williams' unit will once again frustrate the opposition;" the Commanders finished 31st on defense. San Diego? "I haven't seen enough to put San Diego in the playoffs." Tampa? "Jon Gruden's Buccaneers will be a big factor in the playoff race." New Orleans? "This team will fall short."
Just before opening night, Peter King switched his Super Bowl pick from Dallas over New England to Dallas over Indianapolis. He foresaw another big year for Seattle: "The Seahawks are the only NFL team that can say, with supreme confidence, 'We're going 6-0 in our division.''' Seattle finished 3-3 in its division. He prophesied of the San Francisco quarterback, "I don't see Alex Smith leading the Niners out of the wilderness, but I don't see him being the next Heath Shuler, either." He isn't! In 2006, Shuler became a congressman. King saw Miami winning its division at 10-6 because "Nick Saban made a great call on Daunte Culpepper," choosing him over Brees. Flash forward: Halfway through the season with Miami foundering, King would write, "The Dolphins long for the days before [selecting] Culpepper" because they should have signed Brees.
In its season preview issue, Sports Illustrated forecast a Super Bowl of Miami versus Carolina; neither made the playoffs. The previous year, Sports Illustrated had forecast a Super Bowl of Carolina over Indianapolis; neither made the Super Bowl. Five of Sports Illustrated's projected 12 playoff teams -- the Broncos, Dolphins, Panthers, Commanders and Steelers -- failed to make the postseason. These bad predictions pale, however, in comparison to the tea-leaf-reading of ESPN The Magazine, "Published on Earth The Planet." In 2004, ESPN Mag predicted Kansas City would win the Super Bowl; the Chiefs failed to make the playoffs. In 2005, the Mag predicted Minnesota would win the Super Bowl; the Vikings failed to make the playoffs. In 2006, ESPN Mag predicted Miami would win the Super Bowl; the Dolphins failed to make the playoffs. For three consecutive years, ESPN Mag's predicted Super Bowl winner has not even qualified for the postseason. After the Dolphins opened 1-3, the Mag declared "there is no need to panic" in Miami. Dear Miami: You should have panicked!
Then there was the incredible ESPN.com meta-forecast. Twelve fulltime pro football pundits predicted the Super Bowl outcome. Their forecasts: Colts over Panthers (predicted six times), Panthers over Colts, Colts over Seahawks, Seahawks over Colts, Panthers over Patriots, Seahawks over Broncos, and Bengals over Cowboys. Twelve tries, all wrong! No ESPN expert forecast the Bears to make the Super Bowl, while 10 of ESPN.com's 24 projected Super Bowl entrants failed to make the playoffs. Also from the meta-forecast: Michael Smith had Michael Vick as MVP, Mike Golic had Bill Parcells as Coach of the Year and Merrill Hoge had Nick Saban as Coach of the Year.
College Bonus: CBS Sportsline predicted Ohio State would meet West Virginia in the BCS title game. West Virginia failed to make a BCS bowl.
Bad Quarterback Draft Predictions: Jay Cutler "could move ahead of Vince Young or perhaps even Matt Leinart," Clifton Brown of the New York Times wrote before the draft. The actual order was Young, Leinart, Cutler. "Matt Leinart may go second in the draft, he may go third, but he's not going to slip," Mel Kiper Jr. of ESPN declared before the draft. Leinart slipped to ninth. "Marcus Vick is going to be picked a lot higher than you think -- maybe as high as late third round," Matt Hayes of The Sporting News wrote shortly before the draft. Vick was not chosen in any round. (Marcus Vick "will be a star for the Miami Dolphins at wide receiver," Paul Zimmerman of Sports Illustrated added on September 1. The following day, Miami waived Vick. Although he was later re-signed by Miami, he caught zero passes on the season.) Clemson quarterback Charlie Whitehurst "could be this year's Charlie Frye," the Denver Post's Bill Williamson wrote before the draft. Perhaps that was an honor Whitehurst did not seek!
Predictions to remember: On draft day, Hoge said Brody Croyle will be a better quarterback than Vince Young. Croyle is currently third string at Kansas City. On draft day, Ron Jaworski of ESPN said Kellen Clemens will be a better quarterback than Young, Leinart or Cutler. Clemens is currently the backup at Jersey/B. "In five years we will talk about Clemens the way we talk about Tom Brady," Jaworski predicted.
This Is Football; It's Baseball Where You Cover All Bases: Reader Randall Good of Gettysburg, Pa., notes that before the Cowboys at Eagles game, Cris Carter predicted in writing on Yahoo's sports site that Philadelphia would win. In a video clip on the same site, Carter predicted Dallas would win.
Category Three: Midseason Predictions
Half the season is in the books, and patterns are emerging. What do the pundits predict now? "I'm reasonably sold on the Eagles" to win the Super Bowl, Michael Silver of Sports Illustrated wrote, while the main midseason Sports Illustrated article predicted a Super Bowl of Colts over Giants. "The Broncos' defense is great, better than Baltimore's hyped unit. And yes, the Denver defense is good enough to win a Super Bowl," Bill Williamson proffered in the Denver Post.
At the midseason mark, USA Today ran six more Super Bowl predictions: Colts over Falcons, Bears over Chargers, Patriots over Giants, Patriots over Bears and Colts over Bears -- the latter from Jeff Zillgitt. Sean Salisbury of ESPN also predicted, at midseason, Colts over Bears. These exceptions are essential to proving the rule: There are so many NFL predictions, somebody's got to be right.
Pete Prisco of CBS Sportsline foresaw that the injury to Donovan McNabb "will just about do it for the Eagles' playoff chances." When Mike Shanahan benched Jake Plummer for Jay Cutler, John Clayton of ESPN said Shanahan "has pulled off another brilliant move. By going down the stretch with rookie quarterback Jay Cutler … the Broncos appear set to enter the AFC playoffs." Denver went 2-3 under Cutler and missed the playoffs. Steve Silverman of MSNBC wrote at midseason that Tony Romo was the next Tom Brady while "the pieces are in place" for Cowboys to make Super Bowl. The pieces were what was left on the floor after the Cowboys' collapse.
Worst midseason prediction, from Jeffri Chadiha of Sports Illustrated: "The Indianapolis Colts will be exposed. They probably won't make a strong playoff run. They aren't going to win the Super Bowl."
Snyder to Hire Jeff George to Run New Restaurant Division: Last week Red Zone Capital, the investment firm of Chainsaw Dan Snyder, acquired Johnny Rockets, the 1950s nostalgia-burger chain. Here are some of the sweeping changes Chainsaw Dan plans:
• Fry cooks, busboys to be fired weekly.
• Successful menu items such as cheeseburgers to be dropped; Snyder personally will choose recipe for new seaweed burger.
• Instead of singing "That'll Be the Day" and "It's My Party," waiters and waitresses will sing "In A Gadda Da Vida."
• New corporate P.R. strategy will focus on denouncing media and suing anyone who mentions Johnny Rockets in print.
• Heinz ketchup to be replaced with Washington Commanders branded tomato-like product.
Life Imitates Art: Last month Tuesday Morning Quarterback made sport of television announcers who cry "it was almost intercepted!" when a defender barely touches the ball. First Indianapolis snap of the Super Bowl, Peyton Manning threw over the middle and Brian Urlacher, leaping as high as he could, barely grazed the pass with his fingertips, knocking it off course. Jim Nantz of CBS: "It was almost intercepted!"
Predictions From Beyond the Stars: "The pick for this year's come-from-the-dumps team is the Arizona Cardinals. … There might be a playoff game in that new stadium next January." -- Pete Prisco, CBS Sportsline. Clark Judge of the same organization predicted both Arizona and Detroit would make the playoffs. (Judge's justification: "Hey, five of Detroit's losses in 2005 were by no more than six points." In 2005, 45 percent of all NFL games were decided by no more than six points.) Jeremy Green of Scouts Inc. forecast, "The Cardinals have the potential to be the most explosive offense in the NFL." Arizona finished 18th on offense. Michael Smith of ESPN.com had the Lions winning their division and Rod Marinelli as Coach of the Year. Don Banks of Sports Illustrated: "There's a nine- or 10-win season out there waiting to be had for Oakland. You heard it here first." That's the only place you heard it! Adam Schein of Fox Sports predicted the Lions would win "eight or nine games;" Peter King predicted Detroit would be the "surprise team" of 2006, winning its division at 10-6. Detroit was last in its division at 3-13. (King: "Jon Kitna will make few of the glaring errors Joey Harrington made." Actual: Kitna threw 10 more interceptions than thrown by Harrington in 2005.) King further predicted David Boston would be the "surprise guy" of the season for the Buccaneers. A few days later Boston was waived.
Nick Saban Predictions: Mark Maske of the Washington Post: "Nick Saban has the look of being a big-time NFL coach, and it won't be long before he has the Dolphins in Super Bowl contention." Bill Williamson of the Denver Post: "Nick Saban is building something special in Miami." ESPN's John Clayton: "Nick Saban … will catch or pass the Patriots" in 2006. The Associated Press: Miami will win the AFC East because "Players have bought into Nick Saban's system." Peter King on NBC's "Football Night in America" on December 31, 2006: "Nick Saban does not want to go anywhere. Saban is not going to leave the Miami Dolphins. Saban is not going to go to Alabama. Saban is not going anywhere." Three days later Saban took the Alabama job. Nick Saban: "I'm not going to be the Alabama coach."
Subset -- "Could" Predictions: The qualifier "could" runs through many bad predictions. Practically anything "could" happen. Jennifer Lopez "could" go out to dinner with me; Congress "could" set aside partisan bickering in the name of the national interest. Gil Brandt, NFL.com: Houston "is a team that could surprise people [and] make the playoffs." Clark Judge, CBS Sportsline:Drew Henson "has shown signs of becoming the quarterback who could figure into the future of the Cowboys." Henson was waived in training camp. Andrew Perloff of Sports Illustrated: Craig Nall "could follow Matt Hasselbeck's lead and go from being Brett Favre's backup to the Pro Bowl." Nall was third string all season for the Bills and did not appear in a game. Bonus: Megabucks consulting firm Booz Allen Hamilton predicted bird flu "could" cause the entire Internet to shut down.
Subset -- Weirdly Specific Predictions: Pete Prisco, CBS Sportsline: "Ben Watson caught 29 passes in 2005 and he will at least double that this season." Watson caught 49 passes. Jason Whitlock, Kansas City Star: Larry Johnson will run for 110 yards in the Chiefs' final regular season game. He ran for 138 yards. Michael Wilbon, the Washington Post: The Bears can win the Super Bowl if Devin Hester's kickoff returns reach "near midfield twice." Peter King, Sports Illustrated, of his predicted Super Bowl: Terrell Owens will have six receptions. Not five, not seven -- six.
Subset -- Sean Salisbury Predictions: In October on "SportsCenter," Salisbury forecast a Super Bowl of Indianapolis over Chicago. So he's a seer? Then when the playoffs began, Salisbury predicted a Super Bowl of San Diego against New Orleans. Sean -- be true to your school! Then the week before the Super Bowl, Salisbury predicted that if Devin Hester returned a kick for a touchdown, the Bears would beat the Colts.
Wacky Martini Watch: Chicago has a booming nightclub scene, and is also becoming the world capital of strange cocktails. Reader Chris Hanson of Oak Park, Ill., nominates this wacky martini from a trendy Chicago night spot: the bartender "infuses Skyy vodka with pomegranate, peppercorns and thyme; adds some red-wine syrup; and squeezes in the juice of a lime." Not shaken or stirred, infused!
Bad New Orleans Saints Predictions: "No one should make the mistake of assuming the Saints are ready to compete for a playoff spot." -- Don Banks of Sports Illustrated, July 2006. In January, the same Banks predicted the Saints would win the NFC title game. None of ESPN.com's 12 preseason forecasts had New Orleans making the playoffs.
Where Will Reggie Play? "The Texans will select USC running back Reggie Bush with the No. 1 pick in this April's NFL draft, team and league sources told Chris Mortensen," ESPN.com declared in January 2006. The next day, Mortensen added that "no matter what anyone says," Houston was "certain" to draft Bush. "Reggie Bush will be the first pick in the draft," Mel Kiper Jr. said on ESPN radio in January 2006. "Reggie Bush is going number one, it's just a question of to who," Kiper reiterated on ESPN television in March. "I just don't see [Houston] passing on USC running back Reggie Bush," Kiper said two days before draft. On Friday night before the noon Saturday start of the draft, the Texans used their first choice on Mario Williams. At 10 a.m. Saturday as ESPN draft coverage began, host Suzy Kolber asked an ESPN panel who was surprised by the Texans taking Williams instead of Bush. All the panelists said they were surprised -- except for Mortensen, who declared that he had never expected Bush to be chosen first. Kolber asked about the reports Bush would go first, and Mortensen answered with a sneer, "Those projections were made by the media." Mort -- you are the media! Mortensen declared he had known since Thursday that the Texans were choosing Williams. Oh, so you knew all along: you just forgot to say so! (I know it's not the Boys, but I didn't feel like changing the legend)
What Will Reggie Weigh? At the Indianapolis Combine, Reggie Bush weighed in at 201 pounds, but told the media he "expects to be at 205 pounds" by the USC Pro Day in April. The next week Peter King wrote, "I expect Bush will weigh about 208 pounds" at USC Pro Day. "About" 208 pounds -- so my prediction may be off by a few ounces! LenDale White was 238 pounds at the Combine, and predicted he would be 233 pounds on Pro Day. Actual weigh-ins from USC Pro Day: Bush 201 pounds, White 244 pounds.
Category Five: Playoff Predictions
Now it gets interesting: What did the experts say once the playoff field was known? On the eve of the wild-card round, USA Today ran its third set of dueling Super Bowl predictions: Chargers over Saints (predicted twice), Ravens over Eagles (predicted twice), Chargers over Bears and Colts over Bears. So once again USA Today did have a correct prediction -- but by a different guy! At midseason, Jeff Zillgitt said Colts over Bears. Once the playoffs started he switched to predicting Chargers over Saints, while Jarrett Bell switched to predicting Colts over Bears. Considering USA Today's triple-predictions format, each of its six NFL writers got three shots at a Super Bowl prediction; the paper finished 2 of 18.
On CBS television, Dan Marino predicted a Super Bowl of San Diego versus New Orleans, Shannon Sharpe predicted New Orleans versus Baltimore. On ESPN television, Chris Berman predicted New England versus Seattle. All wrong!
Ron Borges of the Boston Globe forecast a Super Bowl of New Orleans over San Diego -- though earlier he had predicted New Orleans would finish last in its division. Aaron Schatz used the incredibly scientifically advanced database of Footballoutsiders.com to forecast Baltimore as the Super Bowl favorite; then after the Ravens lost, forecast New England as the winner.
Coming into championship week, Sports Illustrated's main prediction was a Patriots-Bears Super Bowl, while the consensus of Sports Illustrated NFL writers predicted a Colts-Saints Super Bowl. That about covered the bases! Of ESPN's forecasters, all eight said New Orleans would defeat Chicago to reach the Super Bowl. This despite the Bears being a 14-3 team playing host to an 11-6 club in the Saints. Sean Salisbury, who at midseason had predicted the Bears would make the Super Bowl, and Joe Theismann, who at midseason called the Bears "the class of the NFC," both predicted Chicago would lose the NFC championship at home to a team with an inferior record. Only the ESPN computer, Accuscore -- which simply endlessly predicts that the team with the best statistics will win -- correctly called the NFC championship. Though before you go trusting computers, Accuscore liked New England over Indianapolis.
New Frontiers in Bad Predictions: In August 2006, Paul Zimmerman of Sports Illustrated wrote that him picking Indianapolis to win the Super Bowl "won't happen in the near future." In January 2007, Zimmerman picked Indianapolis to win the Super Bowl. That is -- Zimmerman made a bad prediction about his own predictions! Zimmerman's forecast that Indianapolis would win the Super Bowl came one week after predicting Indianapolis would lose the AFC championship. Zimmerman also predicted Chicago would lose the NFC championship, writing, "One thing I don't like about the Bears is their special teams." Bears' special teams to that point had scored six touchdowns! Meanwhile Dennis Dillon of The Sporting News wrote of Denver's decision to switch to Jay Cutler, "This move could lead to the Broncos making a deep run into the playoffs, but it also could blow up in their faces." Denver missed the postseason on a field goal in overtime, meaning the Cutler decision neither caused a deep run nor blew up. TMQ admires this Bad Prediction for its sheer audacity -- seemingly so vague as to predict the full range of possibilities, it still managed to be wrong!
Category Six: Bad Super Bowl Predictions
The day after Chicago and Indianapolis won the Super Bowl invites, Mike Florio of Profootballtalk.com predicted the Colts would take the Lombardi Trophy by 10 points. The night before the game, Florio switched sides and said Chicago would win. Mike -- be true to your school! Florio: "The Bears have constructed a game plan that will focus on chewing up the clock via the efforts of running backs Thomas Jones and Cedric Benson." Chicago coaches called 31 passing plays and 17 rushing plays.
ESPN.com offered no fewer than 21 dueling Super Bowl exact final score projections and all, of course, were wrong, though NFL editor Peter Lawrence-Riddell barely missed at Colts 28, Bears 17.
Then there was the incredible celebrity Super Bowl ring-up conducted by David Nielsen of Scripps Howard News Service. Annually for 18 years, Scripps Howard has phoned a surfeit of celebrities before the big game and asked their predictions. A sampling of this year's answers: Dwyane Wade predicted Bears, 28-24. Charlie Sheen said Colts, 37-33. Mickey Rooney said Bears, 24-14. Jennie Finch said Colts, 34-27. Bob Cousy said Colts by the odd score of 37-12. Dionne Warwick said Colts, 31-28. Actor Jim Caviezel said Colts, 31-20. (Caviezel played Jesus in "The Passion of the Christ" and -- I am not making this up -- has said that to method-act sorrow on the cross, he thought about the Minnesota Vikings' Super Bowl losses.) Alfred Rascon, a retired Army major who won the Medal of Honor, said Bears, 21-14. Actor John Amos said Bears, 24-17. Needless to say you have guessed that of the dozens of celebrities called by Nielsen, none predicted the exact final score.
Worst Prediction of the Year, Fourth Runner-Up: Dan Pompei, The Sporting News. At the halfway mark of the season, Pompei wrote that the Bears will "fade" while the Dolphins have "a strong finish." Jake Plummer, Pompei added, "is a better quarterback than he has shown, expect him to prove it in the second half of the season."
Worst Prediction of the Year, Third Runner-Up: Tuesday Morning Quarterback, spoken on the ESPNews show Hotlist. "Dallas is going to stick with Drew Bledsoe. Bill Parcells has been around long enough to know not to change horses in midstream of a playoff push."
Worst Prediction of the Year, Second Runner Up: Terry Bradshaw, Fox Sports. "The Eagles cannot make the playoffs." Predicted two weeks before the Eagles made the playoffs.
Worst Prediction of the Year, First Runner-Up: Mike Florio of Profootballtalk.com: "We predict for both the Bears and the Colts a tough time in 2006."
Worst Prediction of the Year: Bob Oates, Los Angeles Times. Oates predicted Cincinnati, Denver, Detroit, Miami, Pittsburgh and Washington would reach the postseason -- all missed -- while Chicago would not make the playoffs. He said the Lions had a realistic chance of advancing to the Super Bowl. And the Indianapolis Colts? They will "flame out" because Peyton Manning "isn't a natural quarterback."
In addition to writing Tuesday Morning Quarterback, Gregg Easterbrook is the author of "The Progress Paradox: How Life Gets Better While People Feel Worse" and other books. He is also a contributing editor for The New Republic, The Atlantic Monthly and The Washington Monthly, and a visiting fellow at the Brookings Institution. Sound off to Page 2 here.
