Trade out of the 1st mock draft 01/24/24

[bleachedwheat]

so everyone and their mom is on Jordan Morgan or Tyler Guyton at 24 right now....lets look at another scenario, trading out of the 1st round.

The Falcons draft Odunze at 8 to pair with Drake London but they aren't sold on Ridder. They want to draft Penix Jr. at 24 5 QB's including Bo Nix and JJ McCarthy go before him and they say why not have a QB battle between the two.

They offer pick 43 and 79 plus FS Richie Grant with 1 year left costing about 2 million on the cap................... for pick 24 its about a 70 point under pay without Grant but with him its about equal I think. All Dallas Safety's are SS types, not FS and if Hooker got hurt the deep field D-fence would fall to crap. Plus they just payed Jesse Bates a crap ton of money to be their deep field safety.

Draft
43T. C Jackson Powers-Johnson (6'3, 320) Oregon- upgrade over Badass and he won't last until 56. After pre-draft workouts he might be a fringe 1st round pick.
56. CB TJ Tampa (6'2, 200) Iowa State- Bland regressed since he left his spot at slot CB this year, Tampa is best as a boundary CB and Diggs is a Field CB.
79T. ILB Tommy Eichenburg (6'2, 240) Ohio St.- if LVE retires, Dallas needs another actual LB. Safeties playing LB's is not getting it done; true Mike LB.
88. WR Jalen McMillan (6'1, 190) Washington- Dak's biggest problem is, CD's the only WR that can separate, JMac can run a plethora of routes and he separates.
5comp. OL Brandon Coleman (6'5, 320) TCU- Played every position on the line but Center, and only allowed 3 sacks throughout his entire career at multiple positions.
6comp. LB Tyrice Knight (6'2, 235) UTEP- Can play Mike or Will, always around the ball good depth and special teams value.
7. DE JJ Weaver (6'5, 245) Kentucky- quick get off, good motor. Has the frame to add 15 pounds if needed. Good depth piece to rotate in, Developmental piece.
7. Slot Beanie Bishop Jr. (5'10, 185) West Virginia- depth slot CB incase Bland ever got hurt. Led NCAA in Passes Defensed with 20. Not afraid to tackle.

Just something different to cleanse the pallet. This would mostly depend on if Tyron Smith said, screw you guys who think I am washed I am going to sign a two year extension and prove I deserve to be in the hall of fame.

 

[cnuball21]

so everyone and their mom is on Jordan Morgan or Tyler Guyton at 24 right now....lets look at another scenario, trading out of the 1st round.

The Falcons draft Odunze at 8 to pair with Drake London but they aren't sold on Ridder. They want to draft Penix Jr. at 24 5 QB's including Bo Nix and JJ McCarthy go before him and they say why not have a QB battle between the two.

They offer pick 43 and 79 plus FS Richie Grant with 1 year left costing about 2 million on the cap................... for pick 24 its about a 70 point under pay without Grant but with him its about equal I think. All Dallas Safety's are SS types, not FS and if Hooker got hurt the deep field D-fence would fall to crap. Plus they just payed Jesse Bates a crap ton of money to be their deep field safety.

Draft
43T. C Jackson Powers-Johnson (6'3, 320) Oregon- upgrade over Badass and he won't last until 56. After pre-draft workouts he might be a fringe 1st round pick.
56. CB TJ Tampa (6'2, 200) Iowa State- Bland regressed since he left his spot at slot CB this year, Tampa is best as a boundary CB and Diggs is a Field CB.
79T. ILB Tommy Eichenburg (6'2, 240) Ohio St.- if LVE retires, Dallas needs another actual LB. Safeties playing LB's is not getting it done; true Mike LB.
88. WR Jalen McMillan (6'1, 190) Washington- Dak's biggest problem is, CD's the only WR that can separate, JMac can run a plethora of routes and he separates.
5comp. OL Brandon Coleman (6'5, 320) TCU- Played every position on the line but Center, and only allowed 3 sacks throughout his entire career at multiple positions.
6comp. LB Tyrice Knight (6'2, 235) UTEP- Can play Mike or Will, always around the ball good depth and special teams value.
7. DE JJ Weaver (6'5, 245) Kentucky- quick get off, good motor. Has the frame to add 15 pounds if needed. Good depth piece to rotate in, Developmental piece.
7. Slot Beanie Bishop Jr. (5'10, 185) West Virginia- depth slot CB incase Bland ever got hurt. Led NCAA in Passes Defensed with 20. Not afraid to tackle.

Just something different to cleanse the pallet. This would mostly depend on if Tyron Smith said, screw you guys who think I am washed I am going to sign a two year extension and prove I deserve to be in the hall of fame.

I’m down to trade back…but don’t see JPJ getting past Miami or Philly. Also - who’s joining the DT rotation, DE rotation and playing RB next year?

Bland was 1st team all pro this year…if anything he exceeded expectations this year.

 

[Sydla]

Bland regressed?

 

[Mac_MaloneV1]

I think this is too far to trade back without getting more premium capital next year. Grant isn't worth anything.

Pretty meh list of players. I just don't think you can come out of this draft without an OT.

 

[VACowboy]

If they're trading into the first round, especially from 10+ picks deep, especially for a QB, they're giving up a lot more than a fourth-rounder and a safety. I think we'd be trading away from a bunch of impact players at positions of dire need, and this is not a deep draft. If they want #24, if they want their QB, it's gonna cost them next year's one and maybe this year's four.

 

[Gambit]

Bland regressed since he left his spot at slot CB this year,

League leading 9 picks 5 pick 6s 1st team all pro and he's regressed. Ok.

Not saying CB isn't a need it is especially if both JLew and Gilly leave, but let's not just make things up.

 

[bleachedwheat]

League leading 9 picks 5 pick 6s 1st team all pro and he's regressed. Ok.

Not saying CB isn't a need it is especially if both JLew and Gilly leave, but let's not just make things up.

All of his picks came earlier in the season. He really got destroyed by DK and after that he wasn't really the same the rest of the season. When he was playing slot last year he didn't really have any big mishaps.

 

[bleachedwheat]

If they're trading into the first round, especially from 10+ picks deep, especially for a QB, they're giving up a lot more than a fourth-rounder and a safety. I think we'd be trading away from a bunch of impact players at positions of dire need, and this is not a deep draft. If they want #24, if they want their QB, it's gonna cost them next year's one and maybe this year's four.

it would be for a 2nd a 4th and the safety, your getting more than just a 4th. The trade chart says it would be close enough to work.

 

[bleachedwheat]

I’m down to trade back…but don’t see JPJ getting past Miami or Philly. Also - who’s joining the DT rotation, DE rotation and playing RB next year?

Bland was 1st team all pro this year…if anything he exceeded expectations this year.

Free Agency would take care of those positions. I didn't include any free agency moves. It was just a quick mock, sorry for the inconvenience, next time I will spend more time and flesh out the whole off-season for ya'll. Problem with that is then it looks to long and convoluted and nobody reads it.

 

[bleachedwheat]

I'm not saying this is what I want to do. I just like to look at all available options.

 

[Gambit]

All of his picks came earlier in the season. He really got destroyed by DK and after that he wasn't really the same the rest of the season. When he was playing slot last year he didn't really have any big mishaps.

Weeks 1-8 he had 4 picks
Weeks 9-17 he had 5 picks

Yeah I see week 9 is early in season....

After Seattle game he allowed 25 yards total over course of 2-3 games. I see that's not same...

Questions to ask if "data" you provided.

1. Did he have 9 picks the season before?
2. Did he make 1st All Pro season before
3. Did he set NFL record for pick 6s the season before?

The answers to these questions will ultimately answer the big question

Did he regress from previous year?

 

[cnuball21]

All of his picks came earlier in the season. He really got destroyed by DK and after that he wasn't really the same the rest of the season. When he was playing slot last year he didn't really have any big mishaps.

He dropped his percentage completion against and QBR against this year while seeing more snaps and still increasing interception numbers.

I think you’re severely underestimating how good he was this year.

 

[VACowboy]

it would be for a 2nd a 4th and the safety, your getting more than just a 4th. The trade chart says it would be close enough to work.

You can't go by the trade chart when you're trading out of the first round, especially when a team is trading up for a QB. You give up the 5th year option, and if they really want their guy they'll pay for it. #79 and a safety with a year left on his rookie deal isn't enough for me to drop 19 spots and out of first.

 

[bleachedwheat]

He dropped his percentage completion against and QBR against this year while seeing more snaps and still increasing interception numbers.

I think you’re severely underestimating how good he was this year.

I just like him better at slot is all. If he can play it at a high level that's where I would want him. A lot of good WR's are moving to the slot to find an advantage against Defenses. Look at Kupp and CD a lot of their production is from the slot. It's a harder position to play, their is no sideline to help CB's out.

 

[bleachedwheat]

You can't go by the trade chart when you're trading out of the first round, especially when a team is trading up for a QB. You give up the 5th year option, and if they really want their guy they'll pay for it. #79 and a safety with a year left on his rookie deal isn't enough for me to drop 19 spots and out of first.

you would think that the charts account for the Fifth Year option. If they aren't already factored in, then I agree with what your saying.

 

[cnuball21]

I just like him better at slot is all. If he can play it at a high level that's where I would want him. A lot of good WR's are moving to the slot to find an advantage against Defenses. Look at Kupp and CD a lot of their production is from the slot. It's a harder position to play, their is no sideline to help CB's out.

That’s fair, but he’s proven capable of doing both at a high level. We’re incredibly lucky to have an all pro at a premium position on a rookie contract.

I’m down for drafting a CB early if it’s BPA as I don’t see Gilly coming back and TBD on JLew.

 

[big dog cowboy]

Bland regressed?

Yep. He is in danger of getting cut.

 

[atlantacowboy]

Bland “regressed” to first team all-pro.

 

[darthseinfeld]

All of his picks came earlier in the season. He really got destroyed by DK and after that he wasn't really the same the rest of the season. When he was playing slot last year he didn't really have any big mishaps.

74% completion percentage in 2022 playing the slot

53% in 2023 playing outside

He is a much boundry CB than slot

 

[bleachedwheat]

74% completion percentage in 2022 playing the slot

53% in 2023 playing outside

He is a much boundry CB than slot

That's not a surprise stat. Slot CB is a tougher position to play. There's more room to cover from the slot, and more routes a receiver can run from the slot. In some instances, stats can be misleading. 20 percent is a big improvement, but he was more experienced this year than last year; which alters things a bit. I just like that he can play both. If they end up drafting a slot guy instead, so be it. I wonder if he has a position preference? Probably outside, they seem to get paid more.