What it Will Take to Get the Cowboy Defense to Average

[MichaelWinicki]

So how far away is the current Cowboy defense from being "average" meaning that they rank somewhere in the middle of the league when it comes to yards/points given up.

Last season the Giants were in that "middling" area... Giving up 383 points and 5316 yards. The Cowboys gave up 432 points and 6645 yards. So the Cowboys would need to shave 49 points and 1329 yards to get where the Giants were last season.

Now how did the two defenses compare using the Pro Football Focus ratings? For those that aren't familiar with Pro Football Focus, they basically rate each and every player on every play– giving them a positive number for a good play, a negative number for a bad one or a zero for being neither good or bad... Most players on most plays get a zero.

Anyway in 2013, the Giants ended up with a +27.2

The Cowboys ended up with a -98.5

Just for comparison, the Seahawks ended up at +163.9

If the -27.2 for the Cowboys wasn't bad enough, here's some more bad to lay on you...

Off course we know that Hatcher and Ware are no longer part of the defense and they represented a +39.9 (Hatcher being a +27.3).

So now the Dallas defense is at a -138.4

Nice huh?

OK, let's get to some better news...

There's an "army" of defensive players who racked up negative numbers who are no longer part of the defense.

The two worst being Ernie Simms at -22.5 and Jarius Wynn at -10.6

Just banishing all the negative players off the defense wasn't or isn't possible since most of the defensive players were negative last season.

Here are some of the worst offenders still on the roster:
Wilber -7.1
Carter -9.8
Holloman -13
Claiborne -6.6

That's a whole lotta negative.

But I think there's some chance for improvement in 2013. Virtually all of Wilber's negative number was achieved at DE... keeping him at LB (where he did much better) will help keep him out of negative territory.

Carter? I think we're all hoping he finds his 2012 where he was in positive territory for the season.

Hollowman was a rookie who was thrown into the fire. His big weakness was vs the run.

And Claiborne? Just hoping for better.

Those 4 contributed almost -37 on their own.

But the ugliness doesn't stop there.

The #1 technique DT, Hayden had a -27.4 for the season.

So adding up the guys who aren't going to be back, plus the guys who are looking for a better 2014 and Hayden... Well that's almost -100 right there.

Offset the loses of Hatcher and Ware and this defense is at zero.

And how easy will it be to offset those two?

Melton had a +15.8 in 2012. He may not hit that number in 2014, but a +10 would be very helpful.

And what can a couple of decent draft picks contribute?

One final note, Spencer has been a positive-rating machine during his career:
2012 +26.6
2011 +7.6
2010 +11.1
2009 +31.1
2008 +6.7
2007 +2.7

Even if he contributed a measly +5, that would be better than all Cowboy defensive linemen last season not named Hatcher or Ware.

Yes, 2013 was a very bad defensive season.

 

[TonyRomo17]

as i said before, i hope hayden doesnt make it to the 53 man roster

 

[OhSnap]

Claiborne, Carter, Wilbur, Crawford, and Lee have to put in a solid season or it wont matter how good the rest of the defense plays.

 

[JoeyBoy718]

Claiborne and Carter step up.

One of the young safeties (Wilcox, Johnson, eh.... Heath) plays like a decent starter.

We get some home run DL players in the draft.

Sean Lee stays healthy.

Spencer plays like the old Spencer.

 

[Alexander]

Getting this defense to average is not that difficult.

Quit gambling on "potential" and "hope" they can transition.

Take big time playmakers in this draft who have done it before and know what it is like to win.

 

[visionary]

Almost impossible to tell what it would take to get to the average of something that hadn't happened and therefore you don't know what the average will turn out to be. Also can't predict that any additions will get you to a certain point.

Having said this , what we need to be an effective defense

1. WDE
2. FS
3. A starting caliber DL that can rotate with Melton at 3T
4. WLB starting caliber
5. Zone CB

This is the minimum

 

[JoeyBoy718]

I think we should just go with the secondary we have. Too many needs on defense and our front 7 is so bad. You can't fix everything in one season. My opinion, go with the secondary we have. Spend all the picks on the front 7. We need 2 starting LBers and 3 starting DLmen.

 

[Alexander]

I think we should just go with the secondary we have. Too many needs on defense and our front 7 is so bad. You can't fix everything in one season. My opinion, go with the secondary we have. Spend all the picks on the front 7. We need 2 starting LBers and 3 starting DLmen.

I usually do not feel that strong about upgrading the secondary over the front seven, but I think we need some balance there. We have too many players that honestly are not instinctive playmakers. We have physical players, but there is not one I would consider instinctive at what they are supposed to do. Only Scandrick looks like he is comfortable half the time.

Then again, a lack of confidence of what is in front of you can do that.

 

[Bullflop]

Getting the Cowboys defense to average or better can best be realized by the organization enjoying an epicly successful draft in 2014. That might very possibly entail drafting a highly successful DE, DT, OLB, FS and CB. It would truly be a draft to be exalted.

 

[DuDa]

Health alone might have propelled this defense into mediocrity. Other than injuries, the 3rd down defense was really the achilles heel if you ask me. I have re-watched a few games from last season and was appalled by the amount of 3rd and long conversions this defense gave up. Fixing those two issue right there will get you an average defense.

 

[FuzzyLumpkins]

The inexperience of Holloman, Wilber and Heath hurt a lot. A lot of failed coverages especially with the first and last. That being said pff 'ratings' provide no insight into their relative success or failure especially in zone coverage.

 

[Alexander]

Health alone might have propelled this defense into mediocrity. Other than injuries, the 3rd down defense was really the achilles heel if you ask me. I have re-watched a few games from last season and was appalled by the amount of 3rd and long conversions this defense gave up. Fixing those two issue right there will get you an average defense.

That is not a lot different than saying fixing the red zone percentage gives you a better offense.

You need playmakers to do that. Most QBs and offenses can pick apart soft zones.

 

[DuDa]

That is not a lot different than saying fixing the red zone percentage gives you a better offense.

You need playmakers to do that. Most QBs and offenses can pick apart soft zones.

I understand that and agree with you, however, there are things that a defensive coordinator can do to help take pressure off. A few clever zone blitzes here and there would have helped. I am all for getting pressure with 4 but if your team cannot do that consistently then blitzing is a must. You cannot just let QB's sit back in a nice cozy pocket--they will find the open guy.

 

[Hoofbite]

Getting this defense to average is not that difficult.

Quit gambling on "potential" and "hope" they can transition.

Take big time playmakers in this draft who have done it before and know what it is like to win.

I would agree.

Lots of action at the wishing well when it comes to building this roster.

 

[Alexander]

I understand that and agree with you, however, there are things that a defensive coordinator can do to help take pressure off. A few clever zone blitzes here and there would have helped. I am all for getting pressure with 4 but if your team cannot do that consistently then blitzing is a must. You cannot just let QB's sit back in a nice cozy pocket--they will find the open guy.

And Marinelli is master of zone blitzing or blitzing in general? Since when?

 

[Alexander]

I would agree.

Lots of action at the wishing well when it comes to building this roster.

Never underestimate the power of Marinelli names.

 

[Hoofbite]

Never underestimate the power of Marinelli names.

I do apologize.

 

[DuDa]

And Marinelli is master of zone blitzing or blitzing in general? Since when?

Never said he was but he's a very experienced defensive coach and a smart enough guy--I am sure they could figure it out.

 

[Fletch]

So how far away is the current Cowboy defense from being "average" meaning that they rank somewhere in the middle of the league when it comes to yards/points given up.

Last season the Giants were in that "middling" area... Giving up 383 points and 5316 yards. The Cowboys gave up 432 points and 6645 yards. So the Cowboys would need to shave 49 points and 1329 yards to get where the Giants were last season.

Now how did the two defenses compare using the Pro Football Focus ratings? For those that aren't familiar with Pro Football Focus, they basically rate each and every player on every play– giving them a positive number for a good play, a negative number for a bad one or a zero for being neither good or bad... Most players on most plays get a zero.

Anyway in 2013, the Giants ended up with a +27.2

The Cowboys ended up with a -98.5

Just for comparison, the Seahawks ended up at +163.9

If the -27.2 for the Cowboys wasn't bad enough, here's some more bad to lay on you...

Off course we know that Hatcher and Ware are no longer part of the defense and they represented a +39.9 (Hatcher being a +27.3).

So now the Dallas defense is at a -138.4

Nice huh?

OK, let's get to some better news...

There's an "army" of defensive players who racked up negative numbers who are no longer part of the defense.

The two worst being Ernie Simms at -22.5 and Jarius Wynn at -10.6

Just banishing all the negative players off the defense wasn't or isn't possible since most of the defensive players were negative last season.

Here are some of the worst offenders still on the roster:
Wilber -7.1
Carter -9.8
Holloman -13
Claiborne -6.6

That's a whole lotta negative.

But I think there's some chance for improvement in 2013. Virtually all of Wilber's negative number was achieved at DE... keeping him at LB (where he did much better) will help keep him out of negative territory.

Carter? I think we're all hoping he finds his 2012 where he was in positive territory for the season.

Hollowman was a rookie who was thrown into the fire. His big weakness was vs the run.

And Claiborne? Just hoping for better.

Those 4 contributed almost -37 on their own.

But the ugliness doesn't stop there.

The #1 technique DT, Hayden had a -27.4 for the season.

So adding up the guys who aren't going to be back, plus the guys who are looking for a better 2014 and Hayden... Well that's almost -100 right there.

Offset the loses of Hatcher and Ware and this defense is at zero.

And how easy will it be to offset those two?

Melton had a +15.8 in 2012. He may not hit that number in 2014, but a +10 would be very helpful.

And what can a couple of decent draft picks contribute?

One final note, Spencer has been a positive-rating machine during his career:
2012 +26.6
2011 +7.6
2010 +11.1
2009 +31.1
2008 +6.7
2007 +2.7

Even if he contributed a measly +5, that would be better than all Cowboy defensive linemen last season not named Hatcher or Ware.

Yes, 2013 was a very bad defensive season.

Health

 

[MichaelWinicki]

Health

That's true.

But, the Cowboys themselves added to last year's mess by only having drafted 5 defensive linemen since 2006.

That is going to catch up to you sooner or later.

With a little more forethought on drafting defensive linemen through-out that time period, instead of having to totally rely on Ware, Hatcher, Ratliff and Spencer for 800 snaps each... Instead those guys would have been 500 snap players with competent guys behind them.