CFZ Why predicting wins and losses in advance is not realistic

[Bobhaze]

I completely understand why so many of our fellow fans love to predict game outcomes for the upcoming season nearly 4 months before the season opens. It’s just what we like to do.

But unlike college football where the talent gaps between teams can be huge, the NFL talent gaps between the SB champs and a last place team is not that large. Picking which teams we can defeat based on last year’s reputation is just not accurate.

Look at how many unpredictable games we had last year- most of these games we would not have guessed these results months in advance. From 2023 results, how many of us picked these outcomes?:

• Detroit 21 KC 20 (opening night at KC)
• Denver 24 KC 9 (the same Denver defense that gave up 70 to the dolphins held Mahomes and chiefs to 9 pts)
• Vegas 20 KC 14
• Ariz 28 Dallas 16 (none of us saw that coming)
• Ariz 35 Philly 31
• New Eng 25 Buff 21 (two weeks after we killed the Pats; And Buff killed us later)
• Cle 19 SF 17 (first game for niners after they looked unbeatable beating us)
• Cincy 31 SF 17 (at SF three weeks after they crushed the Cowboys)
• GB 27 KC 19
• Sea 20 Philly 17 (at Philly with the division on the line)
• GB 48 Dallas 32 (hated to even post this but I know I did not see that coming!)

The above are not all the upsets from last year. The NFL is completely unpredictable as evidenced by the fact every year about 4-6 playoff teams from the year before don’t make the playoffs the following season. We just don’t know in May of this year which teams are going to emerge as better than we thought or worse than we expected.

I have no problem watching many fans make predictions this time of year. It’s fun. It’s just unlikely that any of us really know.

 

[ArtClink]

I agree Hazey but it sure is fun to predict!

We were one of the least injured teams last year. Will will be that lucky this season?

How well will the OL gel this season? How is our OL depth if a key player gets injured?

How much have the other NFC East improved?

Do we have the personnel to run Zimmers defensive schemes?

Let’s see what happens.

 

[rambo2]

I completely understand why so many of our fellow fans love to predict game outcomes for the upcoming season nearly 4 months before the season opens. It’s just what we like to do.

But unlike college football where the talent gaps between teams can be huge, the NFL talent gaps between the SB champs and a last place team is not that large. Picking which teams we can defeat based on last year’s reputation is just not accurate.

Look at how many unpredictable games we had last year- most of these games we would not have guessed these results months in advance. From 2023 results, how many of us picked these outcomes?:

• Detroit 21 KC 20 (opening night at KC)
• Denver 24 KC 9 (the same Denver defense that gave up 70 to the dolphins held Mahomes and chiefs to 9 pts)
• Vegas 20 KC 14
• Ariz 28 Dallas 16 (none of us saw that coming)
• Ariz 35 Philly 31
• New Eng 25 Buff 21 (two weeks after we killed the Pats; And Buff killed us later)
• Cle 19 SF 17 (first game for niners after they looked unbeatable beating us)
• Cincy 31 SF 17 (at SF three weeks after they crushed the Cowboys)
• GB 27 KC 19
• Sea 20 Philly 17 (at Philly with the division on the line)
• GB 48 Dallas 32 (hated to even post this but I know I did not see that coming!)

The above are not all the upsets from last year. The NFL is completely unpredictable as evidenced by the fact every year about 4-6 playoff teams from the year before don’t make the playoffs the following season. We just don’t know in May of this year which teams are going to emerge as better than we thought or worse than we expected.

I have no problem watching many fans make predictions this time of year. It’s fun. It’s just unlikely that any of us really know.

It certainly isn't realistic when the health of all the teams plays a huge part in who wins and loses.

 

[Reality]

I completely understand why so many of our fellow fans love to predict game outcomes for the upcoming season nearly 4 months before the season opens. It’s just what we like to do.

But unlike college football where the talent gaps between teams can be huge, the NFL talent gaps between the SB champs and a last place team is not that large. Picking which teams we can defeat based on last year’s reputation is just not accurate.

Look at how many unpredictable games we had last year- most of these games we would not have guessed these results months in advance. From 2023 results, how many of us picked these outcomes?:

• Detroit 21 KC 20 (opening night at KC)
• Denver 24 KC 9 (the same Denver defense that gave up 70 to the dolphins held Mahomes and chiefs to 9 pts)
• Vegas 20 KC 14
• Ariz 28 Dallas 16 (none of us saw that coming)
• Ariz 35 Philly 31
• New Eng 25 Buff 21 (two weeks after we killed the Pats; And Buff killed us later)
• Cle 19 SF 17 (first game for niners after they looked unbeatable beating us)
• Cincy 31 SF 17 (at SF three weeks after they crushed the Cowboys)
• GB 27 KC 19
• Sea 20 Philly 17 (at Philly with the division on the line)
• GB 48 Dallas 32 (hated to even post this but I know I did not see that coming!)

The above are not all the upsets from last year. The NFL is completely unpredictable as evidenced by the fact every year about 4-6 playoff teams from the year before don’t make the playoffs the following season. We just don’t know in May of this year which teams are going to emerge as better than we thought or worse than we expected.

I have no problem watching many fans make predictions this time of year. It’s fun. It’s just unlikely that any of us really know.

Most fans assume the other teams that were good last year will pick right back up where they left off last season while at the same time fully seeing their own team's weaknesses, players who left, etc. as giant question marks, despite the fact that every team has that problem .. fans just know their own team's problems better.

The annual season record prediction thread can be interesting to go back and read because even when the team performs as many predict, a lot of the comments point out weaknesses that end up being strengths and strengths that end up being season-long problem areas.

 

[Coogiguy03]

I agree Hazey but it sure is fun to predict!

We were one of the least injured teams last year. Will will be that lucky this season?

How well will the OL gel this season? How is our OL depth if a key player gets injured?

How much have the other NFC East improved?

Do we have the personnel to run Zimmers defensive schemes?

Let’s see what happens.

That's because no big names were up for deals, wait until they get the deals

 

[Coogiguy03]

Yeah you can't really pick, things change quick in the NFL. Teams that weren't supposed to be good end up being good compared to the previous season

 

[Diehardblues]

I completely understand why so many of our fellow fans love to predict game outcomes for the upcoming season nearly 4 months before the season opens. It’s just what we like to do.

But unlike college football where the talent gaps between teams can be huge, the NFL talent gaps between the SB champs and a last place team is not that large. Picking which teams we can defeat based on last year’s reputation is just not accurate.

Look at how many unpredictable games we had last year- most of these games we would not have guessed these results months in advance. From 2023 results, how many of us picked these outcomes?:

• Detroit 21 KC 20 (opening night at KC)
• Denver 24 KC 9 (the same Denver defense that gave up 70 to the dolphins held Mahomes and chiefs to 9 pts)
• Vegas 20 KC 14
• Ariz 28 Dallas 16 (none of us saw that coming)
• Ariz 35 Philly 31
• New Eng 25 Buff 21 (two weeks after we killed the Pats; And Buff killed us later)
• Cle 19 SF 17 (first game for niners after they looked unbeatable beating us)
• Cincy 31 SF 17 (at SF three weeks after they crushed the Cowboys)
• GB 27 KC 19
• Sea 20 Philly 17 (at Philly with the division on the line)
• GB 48 Dallas 32 (hated to even post this but I know I did not see that coming!)

The above are not all the upsets from last year. The NFL is completely unpredictable as evidenced by the fact every year about 4-6 playoff teams from the year before don’t make the playoffs the following season. We just don’t know in May of this year which teams are going to emerge as better than we thought or worse than we expected.

I have no problem watching many fans make predictions this time of year. It’s fun. It’s just unlikely that any of us really know.

Yep, all true but it’s our nature to make these predictions . If they aren’t interested in them then can look away. Some don’t like anything that doesn’t present a more positive outlook.

But as long as we have wagering on games , the results of the season , etc there will be handicapping the outcomes in order to provide some insight and instincts to make those predictions or wagers.

And while we absolutely don’t know what the outcomes will be some fans, analysts, handicappers, etc do have better insights and instincts than others. Just like some are better at wagering than others.

I generally am more likely to listen to someone who either aligns with my thoughts or someone who has a more proven record in their insights.

Unfortunately most of what fans hear today listen to or are exposed to is from mediots who are just peddling air time for entertainment.

But true handicappers who make their living on their insight are like a Futures Broker. If they get it right more than they get it wrong they are the ones the fans or investors looking for such info will gravitate too.

 

[Diehardblues]

The Lions are a good example from last year. Many fans were predicting they were going to have a big year.

They liked the way they finished the previous season and the team they were building . Of course noone knew for sure but there was indicators to make such a prediction. And those guys got it right.

Many predicted the 49ers would get back to SB. They got it right.

There are some fans and analysts out there who do have better instincts and insight. And some enjoy taking in and discussing those speculations .

 

[TwistedL0g1k]

Definitely premature to have a good grasp on it! But..... the bookies are taking bets!

We'll know a lot more after the pre-season, but a lot is known. Most of us have a pretty good grasp of Dallas's roster. The majority of players were here last season. I think we generally know how good most teams are. There are always surprises, which makes it fun!

I can promise you this- Dallas will win a game everyone thinks they will lose, and Dallas will lose a game everyone thinks they'll win. Happens every season.

 

[Hawkeye0202]

Most fans assume the teams that were good last year will pick right back up where they left off last season

We enjoyed three years of stability with the same HC, defensive coor, and several starting players. Predicting our chances of at least making the playoff was easy, especially following two straight 12-5 seasons this year are apples and oranges IMO. I won't go into the ton changes ( everyone knows what they are) but to say we will win this many games or we should be the favorite against this or that team is a head-shaker for me, at least for now.

 

[Reality]

We enjoyed three years of stability with the same HC, defensive coor, and several starting players. Predicting our chances of at least making the playoff was easy, especially following two straight 12-5 seasons this year are apples and oranges IMO. I won't go into the ton changes ( everyone knows what they are) but to say we will win this many games or we should be the favorite against this or that team is a head-shaker for me, at least for now.

I was speaking about "other" teams.

Fans tend to view the "other" teams that were good last season as they will be 1) just as good this season, or 2) improved and much better this season.

At the same time, fans know their own team quite well so they focus more on the holes, coach/player losses, etc. and other aspects that tend to get overlooked when they view other teams.

Every year though, good teams from the previous season decline and bad teams from the previous season improve.

Sometimes that happens to our own teams as well. Cowboys fans have just avoided that feeling for the last 3 seasons after three 12-5 seasons in a row.

Based purely on off-season moves, there is no question the Cowboys are starting off with a deficit from last season's team.

It will be interesting to see how things go with the return of Diggs, new defensive coordinator and scheme and some of the young players step up and play well.

 

[GoCowboysGo]

I think Zimmer was chosen in case the team implodes, and a change will be deemed necessary (by the two who made the HC hire to begin with), but at least they would have an experienced coach to finish the season.

That’s in case the team implodes. If they are average, and make the playoffs but are one and done, then I would imagine Zimmer would be the leading candidate for next season.

If they are awesome, win 11+ games and make it to the NFCCG, Big Mike might save his gig, but I think he would have to at least make the NFCCG.

Predictions this early are futile, but it’s fun to think about with no games until the beginning of August.

 

[Aven8]

I completely understand why so many of our fellow fans love to predict game outcomes for the upcoming season nearly 4 months before the season opens. It’s just what we like to do.

But unlike college football where the talent gaps between teams can be huge, the NFL talent gaps between the SB champs and a last place team is not that large. Picking which teams we can defeat based on last year’s reputation is just not accurate.

Look at how many unpredictable games we had last year- most of these games we would not have guessed these results months in advance. From 2023 results, how many of us picked these outcomes?:

• Detroit 21 KC 20 (opening night at KC)
• Denver 24 KC 9 (the same Denver defense that gave up 70 to the dolphins held Mahomes and chiefs to 9 pts)
• Vegas 20 KC 14
• Ariz 28 Dallas 16 (none of us saw that coming)
• Ariz 35 Philly 31
• New Eng 25 Buff 21 (two weeks after we killed the Pats; And Buff killed us later)
• Cle 19 SF 17 (first game for niners after they looked unbeatable beating us)
• Cincy 31 SF 17 (at SF three weeks after they crushed the Cowboys)
• GB 27 KC 19
• Sea 20 Philly 17 (at Philly with the division on the line)
• GB 48 Dallas 32 (hated to even post this but I know I did not see that coming!)

The above are not all the upsets from last year. The NFL is completely unpredictable as evidenced by the fact every year about 4-6 playoff teams from the year before don’t make the playoffs the following season. We just don’t know in May of this year which teams are going to emerge as better than we thought or worse than we expected.

I have no problem watching many fans make predictions this time of year. It’s fun. It’s just unlikely that any of us really know.

You forgot that Balty clubbing of the 9ers in Santa Clara on Xmas day. Now that was something!

 

[Tangle_Foot]

Damn Bob, you probably go around telling little kids it's not realistic to believe in Santa
It's tradition

13-4 and we will be in that NFC championship game

 

[Bobhaze]

I was speaking about "other" teams.

Fans tend to view the "other" teams that were good last season as they will be 1) just as good this season, or 2) improved and much better this season.

At the same time, fans know their own team quite well so they focus more on the holes, coach/player losses, etc. and other aspects that tend to get overlooked when they view other teams.

Every year though, good teams from the previous season decline and bad teams from the previous season improve.

Sometimes that happens to our own teams as well. Cowboys fans have just avoided that feeling for the last 3 seasons after three 12-5 seasons in a row.

Based purely on off-season moves, there is no question the Cowboys are starting off with a deficit from last season's team.

It will be interesting to see how things go with the return of Diggs, new defensive coordinator and scheme and some of the young players step up and play well.

Well said.

Obviously I can’t predict the outcome of games in advance but it seems fairly clear to me that “on paper” the Cowboys do not seem to be as good at several positions as we were last year.

Looking at these positions on offense specifically, as of today we can’t say we are better or even ”as good.”

• LT- Last year’s starter: Tyron Smith who is probably headed to Canton. This year’s starter is likely 1st round rookie Tyler Guyton. I’m excited about Guyton for the future, but as a plug and play guy instantly as good as Tyron Smith - no way.
• C- Last year’s starter: Tyler Biadaz who made the Pro Bowl. He wasn’t great but still decent. This year’s starter looks to be 3rd round rookie Cooper Bebee (who has never played C) or last year’s backup Brock Hoffman. Upgrade or as good? I think Bebee has a ton of upside but we can’t consider this position a strength yet.
• RB- Last year: Tony Pollard. Although coming off an injury last year Pollard was still an explosive weapon who had “take it to the house“ capabilities. This year’s replacement? A committee of Zeke Elliott, Rico Dowdle and Deuce Vaughn. This has to be considered a downgrade.

We don’t know what our new rookies on the OL will be yet. But expecting a rookie to replace Tyron Smith at the same level immediately is just not realistic.

So if I’m being honest, as it stands right now, I can’t say our offense looks to be as good as last year. Maybe it will. Right now that seems like a big ask. Only time will tell.

 

[Bobhaze]

We enjoyed three years of stability with the same HC, defensive coor, and several starting players. Predicting our chances of at least making the playoff was easy, especially following two straight 12-5 seasons this year are apples and oranges IMO. I won't go into the ton changes ( everyone knows what they are) but to say we will win this many games or we should be the favorite against this or that team is a head-shaker for me, at least for now.

Agree 100%.

 

[ArtClink]

That's because no big names were up for deals, wait until they get the deals

Indeed!

 

[GMO415]

I completely understand why so many of our fellow fans love to predict game outcomes for the upcoming season nearly 4 months before the season opens. It’s just what we like to do.

But unlike college football where the talent gaps between teams can be huge, the NFL talent gaps between the SB champs and a last place team is not that large. Picking which teams we can defeat based on last year’s reputation is just not accurate.

Look at how many unpredictable games we had last year- most of these games we would not have guessed these results months in advance. From 2023 results, how many of us picked these outcomes?:

• Detroit 21 KC 20 (opening night at KC)
• Denver 24 KC 9 (the same Denver defense that gave up 70 to the dolphins held Mahomes and chiefs to 9 pts)
• Vegas 20 KC 14
• Ariz 28 Dallas 16 (none of us saw that coming)
• Ariz 35 Philly 31
• New Eng 25 Buff 21 (two weeks after we killed the Pats; And Buff killed us later)
• Cle 19 SF 17 (first game for niners after they looked unbeatable beating us)
• Cincy 31 SF 17 (at SF three weeks after they crushed the Cowboys)
• GB 27 KC 19
• Sea 20 Philly 17 (at Philly with the division on the line)
• GB 48 Dallas 32 (hated to even post this but I know I did not see that coming!)

The above are not all the upsets from last year. The NFL is completely unpredictable as evidenced by the fact every year about 4-6 playoff teams from the year before don’t make the playoffs the following season. We just don’t know in May of this year which teams are going to emerge as better than we thought or worse than we expected.

I have no problem watching many fans make predictions this time of year. It’s fun. It’s just unlikely that any of us really know.

BULLET! What else we're gonna do Brother?