Yakuza Rich
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Here are my 2012 NFL season predictions, Yakuza Rich style.
We saw 12 teams with losing records in 2011:
Dolphins (6-10)
Bills (6-10)
Browns (4-12)
Jaguars (5-11)
Colts (2-14)
Chiefs (7-9)
Commanders (5-11)
Vikings (3-13)
Panthers (6-10)
Buccaneers (4-12)
Seahawks (7-9)
Rams (2-14)
I predict that 3 of these teams will make the playoffs:
Buffalo
Carolina
Seattle
The key behind my thinking here is mostly with the QB play. While I think ANDREW LUCK and RGIII will be good QB’s, I think their teams have a long ways to go. I also think the same with the Bucs and JOSH FREEMAN. I think CAM NEWTON will probably wind up being overrated after this year, but effective enough behind a solid defense to give teams fits. I think RYAN FITZGERALD is the best veteran QB on any of these teams and Seattle has RUSSELL WILSON, but IMO the least amount of work ahead of them in the weak NFC West.
These were the 8 divisional winners:
New England
Baltimore
Houston
Denver
NY Giants
Green Bay
New Orleans
San Francisco
For each of the last 4 years, only 3 of the 8 division winners have returned to the playoffs the following season. However, the trends are that the lower the amount of teams with losing records, the more likely the division winners will return to the playoffs. I will go with that trend and label the last few years as an anomaly.
NY Giants
Green Bay
New England
Denver
8 of the last 11 Super Bowl champs have returned to the postseason in the following year. The Steelers failed to return to the playoffs twice after winning the Super Bowl. The trend is that the G-Men will return to the postseason.
Only 4 of the last 11 Super Bowl winners have returned to the playoffs the following year. However, the last 3 Super Bowl losers have returned (Arizona, Indy and Pittsburgh) and 4 of the last 6 have returned. I think it puts New England in a tighter spot than most people think, but the Cardinals, Indy and Pittsburgh all had excellent QB’s that stayed healthy and TOM BRADY doesn’t get injured, outside of the 2008 season. Green Bay is still too dominant and while I’m iffy on the Broncos and PEYTON MANNING's health, he’s too good and plays in too weak of division to pass up on.
The 4 wildcard teams from 2011 were:
Cincinnati
Pittsburgh
Atlanta
Detroit
Typically the trend is about 3 out 4 wildcard teams will return to the postseason. However, the trend is also the less losing teams there are, the greater the chance those wildcard teams won’t make the playoffs. So I predict that 2 of the 4 wildcards will return.
Pittsburgh
Atlanta
This is mainly going off QB play and organizational stability. I suspect that the Bengals will eventually take over the Steelers in a couple of years if ANDY DALTON and AJ GREEN can stay healthy. I don’t think MARVIN LEWIS is a great coach, but I also feel he’s fairly underrated. But for now, I see AJ DALTON and AJ GREEN having a ‘sophomore slump’ and they are in a difficult division with the Steelers and Ravens.
That puts me at 9 playoff teams so far:
New England
Buffalo
Pittsburgh
Denver
NY Giants
Green Bay
Atlanta
Carolina
Seattle
I’ll start with the AFC first as I still need to pick 2 more teams to make the playoffs.
Since I got the divisional winners (New England and Denver), wildcard (Pittsburgh) and losing teams (Buffalo) out of the way, I need to find teams that don’t fit that criteria. Meaning, I need to examine the teams who went .500+, but didn’t make the playoffs in the AFC.
NY Jets (8-8)
Tennessee (9-7)
Oakland (8-8)
San Diego (8-8)
I’ll take out the Jets. Not because of the hysteria going on, but because they play in a division with the Patriots and Buffalo (predicted to make the playoffs) and the Dolphins. Metric wise, the Dolphins were better than people think last year. Unfortunately, I don’t like the idea of starting RYAN TANNEHILL. Still, it leaves the Jets out of the playoff picture.
I don’t have anybody in the AFC South. So that puts Tennessee in there. However, Tennessee had good metrics last year and was just one win away from making the postseason.
Then it comes down to Oakland and San Diego. I think the Raiders will be better and you can never quite trust NORV TURNER. PHILLIP RIVERS was poor last season, but you would think they straightened those things out…that and the AFC West is still a miserable division.
The same process applies to the NFC. Find .500+ teams that didn’t make the playoffs:
Philadelphia (8-8)
Dallas (8-8)
Chicago (8-8)
Arizona (8-8)
Part of the problem is that I’ve already ‘used up’ 5 of my picks (NYG, GB, ATL, CAR and SEA).
With Atlanta and Carolina in the same division, that should take care of the division champ and wildcard. In the end, I like the Bears best here. They were well on their way to the postseason and seemed like the one team that could give the 15-1 Packers a tough time. That was until JAY CUTLER got hurt on a fluke play. I have never liked KEVIN KOLB as a QB and I feel that the Eagles and Dallas, along with the G-Men will likely cancel each other out.
So here are the predictions:
AFC EAST
New England (11-5)
Buffalo (10-6)
NY Jets (8-8)
Miami (5-11)
AFC NORTH
Pittsburgh (10-6)
Baltimore (9-7)
Cincinnati (7-9)
Cleveland (3-13)
AFC SOUTH
Tennessee (11-5)
Houston (8-8)
Indianapolis (6-10)
Jacksonville (4-12)
AFC WEST
Denver (10-6)
San Diego (9-7)
Oakland (7-9)
Kansas City (6-10)
NFC EAST
NY Giants (10-6)
Philadelphia (9-7)
Dallas (8-8)
Washington (7-9)
NFC NORTH
Green Bay (13-3)
Chicago (10-6)
Detroit (8-8)
Minnesota (5-11)
NFC SOUTH
Atlanta (11-5)
Carolina (10-6)
New Orleans (8-8)
Tampa Bay (6-10)
NFC WEST
Seattle (10-6)
Arizona (7-9)
San Francisco (7-9)
St. Louis (4-12)
Typically the Super Bowl teams are teams that have been in the playoffs a while, either as a wildcard or divisional winner, and then they finally get their shot at the Super Bowl. I typically tend to see the progression of a wildcard team who wins their division the next season and makes it to the Super Bowl. I’ve only picked 2 of the wildcard teams to make the playoffs and one of them I’m not too keen on their chances of returning to the Super Bowl, although they have proved me wrong.
Also, the Super Bowl champs have a tendency to return to the playoffs as well. The problem I see for the Giants is that ELI MANNING is an erratic QB with the unique ability of when he’s on, he can will the team to victory against anybody. Furthermore, he has the unique ability to turn it on at any time. The problem is that you can’t quite rely for him to turn it on at the right time. My guess is that this year he’ll come out like a ball of fire and really fade away in December and there will be doubts about his game. Personally, I would take the erratic QB who caught fire in December and January twice in his career and brought us 2 Super Bowls. So that rules out the G-Men.
In the end, I like:
Denver vs. Atlanta
It would be PEYTON MANNING's great return and after watching the Colts disintegrate into a 2-14 awful squad without PEYTON MANNING, you start to appreciate how great of a QB he is. Furthermore, I think JOHN FOX is a better defensive coach than Colts-era TONY DUNGY. Atlanta makes a lot of sense. Their profile is a team with one of the league’s better young QB’s and they have bounced around in the playoffs for the past few years. Plus we'll hear about how it's a re-match of the 1998 Super Bowl ad nauseum, which nobody gives a damn about.
OFFENSIVE PLAYER OF THE YEAR: CAM NEWTON QB (Carolina)
DEFENSIVE PLAYER OF THE YEAR: VON MILLER OLB (Denver)
ROOKIE OF THE YEAR: ANDREW LUCK QB (Indianapolis)
COACH OF THE YEAR: RON RIVERA (Carolina)
COACH FIRINGS: PAT SHURMER (Cleveland), GARY KUBIAK (Houston), LESLEY FRAZIER (Minnesota), KEN WISENHUNT (Arizona)
YR
We saw 12 teams with losing records in 2011:
Dolphins (6-10)
Bills (6-10)
Browns (4-12)
Jaguars (5-11)
Colts (2-14)
Chiefs (7-9)
Commanders (5-11)
Vikings (3-13)
Panthers (6-10)
Buccaneers (4-12)
Seahawks (7-9)
Rams (2-14)
I predict that 3 of these teams will make the playoffs:
Buffalo
Carolina
Seattle
The key behind my thinking here is mostly with the QB play. While I think ANDREW LUCK and RGIII will be good QB’s, I think their teams have a long ways to go. I also think the same with the Bucs and JOSH FREEMAN. I think CAM NEWTON will probably wind up being overrated after this year, but effective enough behind a solid defense to give teams fits. I think RYAN FITZGERALD is the best veteran QB on any of these teams and Seattle has RUSSELL WILSON, but IMO the least amount of work ahead of them in the weak NFC West.
These were the 8 divisional winners:
New England
Baltimore
Houston
Denver
NY Giants
Green Bay
New Orleans
San Francisco
For each of the last 4 years, only 3 of the 8 division winners have returned to the playoffs the following season. However, the trends are that the lower the amount of teams with losing records, the more likely the division winners will return to the playoffs. I will go with that trend and label the last few years as an anomaly.
NY Giants
Green Bay
New England
Denver
8 of the last 11 Super Bowl champs have returned to the postseason in the following year. The Steelers failed to return to the playoffs twice after winning the Super Bowl. The trend is that the G-Men will return to the postseason.
Only 4 of the last 11 Super Bowl winners have returned to the playoffs the following year. However, the last 3 Super Bowl losers have returned (Arizona, Indy and Pittsburgh) and 4 of the last 6 have returned. I think it puts New England in a tighter spot than most people think, but the Cardinals, Indy and Pittsburgh all had excellent QB’s that stayed healthy and TOM BRADY doesn’t get injured, outside of the 2008 season. Green Bay is still too dominant and while I’m iffy on the Broncos and PEYTON MANNING's health, he’s too good and plays in too weak of division to pass up on.
The 4 wildcard teams from 2011 were:
Cincinnati
Pittsburgh
Atlanta
Detroit
Typically the trend is about 3 out 4 wildcard teams will return to the postseason. However, the trend is also the less losing teams there are, the greater the chance those wildcard teams won’t make the playoffs. So I predict that 2 of the 4 wildcards will return.
Pittsburgh
Atlanta
This is mainly going off QB play and organizational stability. I suspect that the Bengals will eventually take over the Steelers in a couple of years if ANDY DALTON and AJ GREEN can stay healthy. I don’t think MARVIN LEWIS is a great coach, but I also feel he’s fairly underrated. But for now, I see AJ DALTON and AJ GREEN having a ‘sophomore slump’ and they are in a difficult division with the Steelers and Ravens.
That puts me at 9 playoff teams so far:
New England
Buffalo
Pittsburgh
Denver
NY Giants
Green Bay
Atlanta
Carolina
Seattle
I’ll start with the AFC first as I still need to pick 2 more teams to make the playoffs.
Since I got the divisional winners (New England and Denver), wildcard (Pittsburgh) and losing teams (Buffalo) out of the way, I need to find teams that don’t fit that criteria. Meaning, I need to examine the teams who went .500+, but didn’t make the playoffs in the AFC.
NY Jets (8-8)
Tennessee (9-7)
Oakland (8-8)
San Diego (8-8)
I’ll take out the Jets. Not because of the hysteria going on, but because they play in a division with the Patriots and Buffalo (predicted to make the playoffs) and the Dolphins. Metric wise, the Dolphins were better than people think last year. Unfortunately, I don’t like the idea of starting RYAN TANNEHILL. Still, it leaves the Jets out of the playoff picture.
I don’t have anybody in the AFC South. So that puts Tennessee in there. However, Tennessee had good metrics last year and was just one win away from making the postseason.
Then it comes down to Oakland and San Diego. I think the Raiders will be better and you can never quite trust NORV TURNER. PHILLIP RIVERS was poor last season, but you would think they straightened those things out…that and the AFC West is still a miserable division.
The same process applies to the NFC. Find .500+ teams that didn’t make the playoffs:
Philadelphia (8-8)
Dallas (8-8)
Chicago (8-8)
Arizona (8-8)
Part of the problem is that I’ve already ‘used up’ 5 of my picks (NYG, GB, ATL, CAR and SEA).
With Atlanta and Carolina in the same division, that should take care of the division champ and wildcard. In the end, I like the Bears best here. They were well on their way to the postseason and seemed like the one team that could give the 15-1 Packers a tough time. That was until JAY CUTLER got hurt on a fluke play. I have never liked KEVIN KOLB as a QB and I feel that the Eagles and Dallas, along with the G-Men will likely cancel each other out.
So here are the predictions:
AFC EAST
New England (11-5)
Buffalo (10-6)
NY Jets (8-8)
Miami (5-11)
AFC NORTH
Pittsburgh (10-6)
Baltimore (9-7)
Cincinnati (7-9)
Cleveland (3-13)
AFC SOUTH
Tennessee (11-5)
Houston (8-8)
Indianapolis (6-10)
Jacksonville (4-12)
AFC WEST
Denver (10-6)
San Diego (9-7)
Oakland (7-9)
Kansas City (6-10)
NFC EAST
NY Giants (10-6)
Philadelphia (9-7)
Dallas (8-8)
Washington (7-9)
NFC NORTH
Green Bay (13-3)
Chicago (10-6)
Detroit (8-8)
Minnesota (5-11)
NFC SOUTH
Atlanta (11-5)
Carolina (10-6)
New Orleans (8-8)
Tampa Bay (6-10)
NFC WEST
Seattle (10-6)
Arizona (7-9)
San Francisco (7-9)
St. Louis (4-12)
Typically the Super Bowl teams are teams that have been in the playoffs a while, either as a wildcard or divisional winner, and then they finally get their shot at the Super Bowl. I typically tend to see the progression of a wildcard team who wins their division the next season and makes it to the Super Bowl. I’ve only picked 2 of the wildcard teams to make the playoffs and one of them I’m not too keen on their chances of returning to the Super Bowl, although they have proved me wrong.
Also, the Super Bowl champs have a tendency to return to the playoffs as well. The problem I see for the Giants is that ELI MANNING is an erratic QB with the unique ability of when he’s on, he can will the team to victory against anybody. Furthermore, he has the unique ability to turn it on at any time. The problem is that you can’t quite rely for him to turn it on at the right time. My guess is that this year he’ll come out like a ball of fire and really fade away in December and there will be doubts about his game. Personally, I would take the erratic QB who caught fire in December and January twice in his career and brought us 2 Super Bowls. So that rules out the G-Men.
In the end, I like:
Denver vs. Atlanta
It would be PEYTON MANNING's great return and after watching the Colts disintegrate into a 2-14 awful squad without PEYTON MANNING, you start to appreciate how great of a QB he is. Furthermore, I think JOHN FOX is a better defensive coach than Colts-era TONY DUNGY. Atlanta makes a lot of sense. Their profile is a team with one of the league’s better young QB’s and they have bounced around in the playoffs for the past few years. Plus we'll hear about how it's a re-match of the 1998 Super Bowl ad nauseum, which nobody gives a damn about.
OFFENSIVE PLAYER OF THE YEAR: CAM NEWTON QB (Carolina)
DEFENSIVE PLAYER OF THE YEAR: VON MILLER OLB (Denver)
ROOKIE OF THE YEAR: ANDREW LUCK QB (Indianapolis)
COACH OF THE YEAR: RON RIVERA (Carolina)
COACH FIRINGS: PAT SHURMER (Cleveland), GARY KUBIAK (Houston), LESLEY FRAZIER (Minnesota), KEN WISENHUNT (Arizona)
YR
Poor Brown fans.