30 points a game is the key

[12+88=7]

Last year I started a thread on "ball control or 30 points a game". The opinions were evenly matched on the subject.

My theory was Dallas needed to open up the offense and pass more and play less ball control to help a supposed weak defense.

In 2019 that's exactly what happened. Dallas passed more and scored more, but their record didn't indicate this at 8-8. When digging deeper there's an explanation for this.

In Dallas's wins they scored 37 points a game and in their losses 17. A 20 point difference, or 3 touchdowns! That was a huge disparity.

Today I read on BTB that Dallas was 8-0 when scoring 30 points in 2019 and 0-8 when they didn't. Wow, that 30 point threshold seems very important. Last year teams that scored 30 points were 116-16 or a .879 winning percentage which would put a team at 14-2 and most likely the #1 seed and home field.

With everyone saying it was the (insert adjective) defense in the NFL that needed to be fixed. The true fact was it was the wildly inconsistent offense that was the cause of an 8-8 season.

If the offense had been consistent Dallas would have won the division, made the playoffs, and would have been contenders instead of pretenders, even with the supposed weak defense.

The most 30 point games in a year for Dallas is 10. That's 10 wins. This year with the offseason Dallas has had the 10 game 30 point threshold should be surpassed. If this offense stays consistent Dallas will be one of the favorites in the NFC, no matter the state of the defense.

30 points or bust!!!!

 

[Hawkeye0202]

Do you know how hard it to score 30 points in an NFL game AND do it consistently game after game?

 

[thunderpimp91]

Wait...so your telling me that scoring more points in a game increases the odds of that team winning? I hope someone notifies Mike McCarthy of this news.

 

[12+88=7]

Wait...so your telling me that scoring more points in a game increases the odds of that team winning? I hope someone notifies Mike McCarthy of this news.

No, I' saying the number 30 is important. It was last year.

 

[12+88=7]

Do you know how hard it to score 30 points in an NFL game AND do it consistently game after game?

It has only happened 22 times.

Why can't we be 23?

 

[Doomsday101]

I'm all for it, but still expect a defense who can go out and make critical stops and force turnovers. It becomes much easier putting up points when defense can get you the ball back in great field position

 

[PJTHEDOORS]

Being consistent in the Red Zone.

 

[KJJ]

If you need to score 30 points a game to win you need to take a hard look at your defense. Three of our losses last season came in games where we scored 24 points. In two of those losses we gave up over 30. We scored quite a few points last season. We had six games over 30 and scored over 40 points in two of our last three games. We struggled to win close games last season. There were some plays we needed to make and there were some plays we couldn’t prevent.

 

[conner01]

Do you know how hard it to score 30 points in an NFL game AND do it consistently game after game?

One teams scored 30 a game
They didn’t go to the super bowl
The super bowl winner avg 1-2 points a game more than we did
You can win a lot of games scoring 30 a game
But you can win without scoring 30 if you keep opponents scoring down
You need to be able to put up more points than you give up
That’s the guaranteed way to win

 

[Flamma]

No, I' saying the number 30 is important. It was last year.

If Dallas scored 30 points in every game last season they would have won 5 extra games. Of course games would be different so who knows?

I did a quick search to try to find a team from the past that scored 30 per game. The best I could come up with is the 2007 Patriots and the 1999 Rams. Both had only 4 games where they did not score 30 throughout the regular season. One went 16-0 and the other 13-3. Not an easy task.

 

[charron]

Technically last year in every win we scored at least 31 points.

 

[thunderpimp91]

No, I' saying the number 30 is important. It was last year.

They could have scored 30 against the Bears and still lost...Packers too.

You have 256 regular season games in a season X 2 teams in each game = 512 opportunities to score 30+ points. 132 times did a team score 30+ points, or roughly 25% of the time. The Cowboys put up 30 points in half of their games last season, so they are significantly above league average in this area. I would like to see more consistency week to week, but im not sure how many more times you can realistically expect them to put up 30+ points.

Had they been able to put up just 20 points in every game a year ago they would have had 11 wins.

Plus the complete disregard for defensive performance is crazy. This defense, along with poor special teams play gave this offense terrible starting field position all season. Its a team game, and they all work together as one unit. You can win games with just a top offense, but get to the playoffs (if you dont settle for 8-8 again) and see what happens when you play a complete team.

 

[12+88=7]

If you need to score 30 points a game to win you need to take a hard look at your defense. Three of our losses last season came in games where we scored 24 points. In two of those losses we gave up over 30. We scored quite a few points last season. We had six games over 30 and scored over 40 points in two of our last three games. We struggled to win close games last season. There were some plays we needed to make and there were some plays we couldn’t prevent.

This is about consistency.

The defense only had three bad games last year. Green Bay, Chicago, and Detroit three out of fifteen. The Minnesota game was a good game with no unit being responsible for loss.

The offense by your 24 point standard had 5 games they grossly underperformed. NO, NY, NE, BUF, and PHI. Three of those games the defense gave up 13, 10, and 9.

My point is about consistency from the offense. Don't be the #1 offense one week and #32 the next.

Dallas scored 434 points in 2019, 46 points short of the goal. Spread those 46 points among the 8 losses last year and Dallas would be a favorite in the NFC.

 

[Cowboysheelsreds053]

I'm all for it, but still expect a defense who can go out and make critical stops and force turnovers. It becomes much easier putting up points when defense can get you the ball back in great field position

Was just going to say hopefully the DL and everyone will be better than previous years, in getting TO which can help lead to easy scores.

 

[12+88=7]

If Dallas scored 30 points in every game last season they would have won 5 extra games. Of course games would be different so who knows?

I did a quick search to try to find a team from the past that scored 30 per game. The best I could come up with is the 2007 Patriots and the 1999 Rams. Both had only 4 games where they did not score 30 throughout the regular season. One went 16-0 and the other 13-3. Not an easy task.

The list of 22 is in an article on BTB. The only team not to make playoffs was the 2004 Chiefs at 7-9.

 

[12+88=7]

They could have scored 30 against the Bears and still lost...Packers too.

You have 256 regular season games in a season X 2 teams in each game = 512 opportunities to score 30+ points. 132 times did a team score 30+ points, or roughly 25% of the time. The Cowboys put up 30 points in half of their games last season, so they are significantly above league average in this area. I would like to see more consistency week to week, but im not sure how many more times you can realistically expect them to put up 30+ points.

Had they been able to put up just 20 points in every game a year ago they would have had 11 wins.

Plus the complete disregard for defensive performance is crazy. This defense, along with poor special teams play gave this offense terrible starting field position all season. Its a team game, and they all work together as one unit. You can win games with just a top offense, but get to the playoffs (if you dont settle for 8-8 again) and see what happens when you play a complete team.

It's an average. They fell short by 46 points in 2019. Spread those out on the 8 losses and you're probably looking at 13-3 or 14-2 with week off and home field.

The defense doesn't need to be great. Last year's or this years edition will do.

 

[OmerV]

You need to be able to put up more points than you give up
That’s the guaranteed way to win

BRILLIANT!

 

[Flamma]

The list of 22 is in an article on BTB. The only team not to make playoffs was the 2004 Chiefs at 7-9.

Ok, you're talking about averaging 30 points a game, not scoring 30 points per game. There is a big difference. The 2004 Chiefs didn't score 30 points 8 games that season. Who cares if you win 56-7 to pad your stats? Those points don't carry over to any other game. They have no impact on any other game. If a team can consistently score between 24-30 points a game you'll probably not find any situations where that team doesn't make the playoffs.

 

[thunderpimp91]

It's an average. They fell short by 46 points in 2019. Spread those out on the 8 losses and you're probably looking at 13-3 or 14-2 with week off and home field.

The defense doesn't need to be great. Last year's or this years edition will do.

You're half right, but you are missing a major part of the equation. Last years defense would not do...put the Cowboys 2019 defense on last years super bowl teams, SF isn't there, and we could debate about KC.

The top scoring teams last season were
1)Baltimore
2)SF
3)NO
4)TB
5)KC
6)Dallas
7)NE
8)Minnesota
9)Seattle
10)Tennessee

All but Dallas and Tampa were in the playoff, which is good for your argument. With that said however, the other 8 that were in the playoffs were also top half of the league in turnover differential and average field position. Good teams have defenses that not only prevent the other team from scoring, but set your offense up to score as well. You cant win with half of a team.

 

[Chiefsguy]

I pointed this out in a few other threads. The problem with the offense is that when things are going fine and easy they can score. But when things are tough, game plans aren’t great, bad field position, etc. they simply can’t score. The ppg difference between wins and losses is absolutely terrible.

Interestingly the defense was much more consistent across wins and losses. In wins they gave up 17 ppg and 23 ppg in losses. That’s probably a pretty average difference whereas the offensive difference is definitely not and reflects poorly on the players and coaches. 24 points is about the average score for a team in a game. If you are giving that up across those eight games, you should absolutely win a few, regardless of excuses, if you are supposedly a top offense.

You will never win anything like that. They have to be more consistent. The question is if the players are good enough for that. I have my doubts.