The first thing I'd like to know before we get started is this. Do you put your life on the line at your job like Football players do? Do you put your health on the line like these football players do? Is your career on average of 7 years like most of these football players? This is something you have to consider when you consider what these guys are asking for.Well that isn’t easy because there are no franchise tags in my industry but let me give it a shot at apples to apples, just lop off two zeros.
Im a data scientist and I am scheduled to make $20,250 per year in 2019 (Dak’s $2,025,000 in 2019).
At my annual review, my boss says, “Skaven we would like to offer you $300,000 per year for the next 5 years” (Dak’s $30 million dollar offer).
“No, I want $350,000 per year boss. I’ll take my chances and work for my $20,250 per year salary this year and prove to you that I’m worth it”.
Boss loves the idea and only pays me $20,250. I miss out on $279,750 that I could have made.
The next year comes around and boss says, “You’re right Skaven, you are worth that. Here is your $350,000 per year”. But no, I still refuse because I only want a 4 year contract.
Does that work for you, @Clove ? Do you see the flaw in his agent’s logic?
The problem is the same. You see, if I accept that $350,000 per year it’s great because it’s $50,000 per year more than I would have made.
But the problem is that I lost out on $279,750, money that’s just gone. I’m making $50,000 per year more but I’d need 6 years ($50K * 6 = $300K) to make back what I lost, and the contract I’m asking for is only 4 years.
I hope this makes sense. I see most people responding either aren’t reading my post or aren’t understanding what I wrote - maybe I’m being too verbose.
I’m not bashing Dak or saying we shouldn’t pay him, which @Rayman70 seemed to think that I was saying.
I’m saying that Dak left money on the table that, even at the higher salary he wants, isn’t enough to recuperate what he lost. That’s why I believe his real asking price is $40 million per year, because that’s the only way that he comes out ahead in these negotiations.
Clear as mud?
Well that isn’t easy because there are no franchise tags in my industry but let me give it a shot at apples to apples, just lop off two zeros.
Im a data scientist and I am scheduled to make $20,250 per year in 2019 (Dak’s $2,025,000 in 2019).
At my annual review, my boss says, “Skaven we would like to offer you $300,000 per year for the next 5 years” (Dak’s $30 million dollar offer).
“No, I want $350,000 per year boss. I’ll take my chances and work for my $20,250 per year salary this year and prove to you that I’m worth it”.
Boss loves the idea and only pays me $20,250. I miss out on $279,750 that I could have made.
The next year comes around and boss says, “You’re right Skaven, you are worth that. Here is your $350,000 per year”. But no, I still refuse because I only want a 4 year contract.
Does that work for you, @Clove ? Do you see the flaw in his agent’s logic?
The problem is the same. You see, if I accept that $350,000 per year it’s great because it’s $50,000 per year more than I would have made.
But the problem is that I lost out on $279,750, money that’s just gone. I’m making $50,000 per year more but I’d need 6 years ($50K * 6 = $300K) to make back what I lost, and the contract I’m asking for is only 4 years.
I hope this makes sense. I see most people responding either aren’t reading my post or aren’t understanding what I wrote - maybe I’m being too verbose.
I’m not bashing Dak or saying we shouldn’t pay him, which @Rayman70 seemed to think that I was saying.
I’m saying that Dak left money on the table that, even at the higher salary he wants, isn’t enough to recuperate what he lost. That’s why I believe his real asking price is $40 million per year, because that’s the only way that he comes out ahead in these negotiations.
Clear as mud?
Agent's commission....Explain. I’m not following you.
The first thing I'd like to know before we get started is this. Do you put your life on the line at your job like Football players do? Do you put your health on the line like these football players do? Is your career on average of 7 years like most of these football players? This is something you have to consider when you consider what these guys are asking for.
Also... Is your job so elite that the world watches, millions upon billions of dollars are made upon the backs of your labor. There are very few players and the owners are making billions off of them. I don't hear you jumping down Jerry's back for making billions.
So when the players ask for WHAT THEY DEEM IS FAIR AMONGST THEIR PEERS, what's the problem? He's only asking for what everyone else in his caliber is asking for. He's "allegedly" asking for 4 years, 35 per, I don't know the true details, do you?. In 8 years, it will be 50. In 10 years it'll be 60, in 20 years it'll be 100 million. Guess what? It's never coming down bro.
So players need to get whatever they can before their short career's come to an end. If the owners making a killing off the backs of their health, then carve them up players.
Well that is a flaw that the owners like, they want to keep a guy cheap for 4 years, even though they should be paid more.you typically can't replace a contract from my limited understanding. they are extensions to the existing ones. further up on this page i showed how wentz's new contract was actually an extension of 4 years that took place after he finished his 4 rookie years and his 5th option year.
Sorry to create another Dak thread, ladies and gentlemen, but I believe that this one will add value to the public discourse.
Can one of you math geniuses help me to understand the Dak Prescott / Todd France negotiation strategy? Because for me, the numbers are not adding up.
I tried to provide links to source everything mentioned below.
In the summer of 2019, the Cowboys offered Dak a deal in the $30 million per year range. Some outlets report that he was actually offered $33 million per year.
He rejected the deal and instead played out the final year of his rookie contract, in which he earned $2.025 million dollars. This is about $28 million in lost earnings for 2019, or $31 million if the Clarence Hill report is correct.
According to reports, there is a new offer in the table now. It’s a $175 million dollar deal which pays Dak $35 million per year.
Dak has rejected this offer as well. If no deal is done, he will play on the franchise tag which will pay him $31.4 million dollars, a difference of $3.6 million dollars.
Can someone please help me understand this negotiating strategy and why it makes financial sense? That’s not even mentioning the enormous risk Dak is taking that he could get injured.
Let’s assume first that the Cowboys cave in July and Dak gets $35 million per year over 4 years. That means he’ll earn $5 million more than he would have if he signed the deal offered in August 2019.
Over the lifetime of the contract, 4 years, he will make $20 million more than he would have if he signed the original offer. But he’s out $28 million, so he’s at a net loss of $8 million!! And this assumes he was offered $30 million per year, because if he turned down $33 million, it looks even worse!
I’m assuming that the two signing bonuses are about the same, since the way they’re talking about the contract value ($140M, $175M, etc) it all works out the same.
Please chime in because I must be missing something.
My only thought is that perhaps the two sides are further apart than we know and this isn’t just about length of contract. To get back the money he lost, I mean just to break even, he’s need a contract that averages $37 million per year and obviously break even isn’t good enough or he would have signed the first deal offered.
I think that Dak’s agent wants $40 million per year - this has actually been reported. If he gets $40 million or $42 million per year, yeah, his agent’s tactics do indeed make sense.
So, bonus question for those who day “sign Dak now”, are you still for signing him at $40 million per year?
Thiughts are appreciated!!
Only the stars make the ridiculous amounts of money . And that has gotten out of hand, regardless of what owners make,The first thing I'd like to know before we get started is this. Do you put your life on the line at your job like Football players do? Do you put your health on the line like these football players do? Is your career on average of 7 years like most of these football players? This is something you have to consider when you consider what these guys are asking for.
Also... Is your job so elite that the world watches, millions upon billions of dollars are made upon the backs of your labor. There are very few players and the owners are making billions off of them. I don't hear you jumping down Jerry's back for making billions.
So when the players ask for WHAT THEY DEEM IS FAIR AMONGST THEIR PEERS, what's the problem? He's only asking for what everyone else in his caliber is asking for. He's "allegedly" asking for 4 years, 35 per, I don't know the true details, do you?. In 8 years, it will be 50. In 10 years it'll be 60, in 20 years it'll be 100 million. Guess what? It's never coming down bro.
So players need to get whatever they can before their short career's come to an end. If the owners making a killing off the backs of their health, then carve them up players.
I tried to provide links to source everything mentioned below.
In the summer of 2019, the Cowboys offered Dak a deal in the $30 million per year range. Some outlets report that he was actually offered $33 million per year.
He rejected the deal and instead played out the final year of his rookie contract, in which he earned $2.025 million dollars. This is about $28 million in lost earnings for 2019, or $31 million if the Clarence Hill report is correct.
I appreciate the effort and thought you put into your post. Good job!Sorry to create another Dak thread, ladies and gentlemen, but I believe that this one will add value to the public discourse.
Can one of you math geniuses help me to understand the Dak Prescott / Todd France negotiation strategy? Because for me, the numbers are not adding up.
I tried to provide links to source everything mentioned below.
In the summer of 2019, the Cowboys offered Dak a deal in the $30 million per year range. Some outlets report that he was actually offered $33 million per year.
He rejected the deal and instead played out the final year of his rookie contract, in which he earned $2.025 million dollars. This is about $28 million in lost earnings for 2019, or $31 million if the Clarence Hill report is correct.
According to reports, there is a new offer in the table now. It’s a $175 million dollar deal which pays Dak $35 million per year.
Dak has rejected this offer as well. If no deal is done, he will play on the franchise tag which will pay him $31.4 million dollars, a difference of $3.6 million dollars.
Can someone please help me understand this negotiating strategy and why it makes financial sense? That’s not even mentioning the enormous risk Dak is taking that he could get injured.
Let’s assume first that the Cowboys cave in July and Dak gets $35 million per year over 4 years. That means he’ll earn $5 million more than he would have if he signed the deal offered in August 2019.
Over the lifetime of the contract, 4 years, he will make $20 million more than he would have if he signed the original offer. But he’s out $28 million, so he’s at a net loss of $8 million!! And this assumes he was offered $30 million per year, because if he turned down $33 million, it looks even worse!
I’m assuming that the two signing bonuses are about the same, since the way they’re talking about the contract value ($140M, $175M, etc) it all works out the same.
Please chime in because I must be missing something.
My only thought is that perhaps the two sides are further apart than we know and this isn’t just about length of contract. To get back the money he lost, I mean just to break even, he’s need a contract that averages $37 million per year and obviously break even isn’t good enough or he would have signed the first deal offered.
I think that Dak’s agent wants $40 million per year - this has actually been reported. If he gets $40 million or $42 million per year, yeah, his agent’s tactics do indeed make sense.
So, bonus question for those who day “sign Dak now”, are you still for signing him at $40 million per year?
Thiughts are appreciated!!
He rejected the deal and instead played out the final year of his rookie contract, in which he earned $2.025 million dollars. This is about $28 million in lost earnings for 2019, or $31 million if the Clarence Hill report is correct.
How exactly does having Jerry by the throat help to recuperate $28 to $30 million in lost revenue? Does he ask for $40 million or bust?
It's a nice thought. I personally don't think things would change too much. Players get the signing bonus up front and 3 years later hold out cause they are ONLY making like 5m a year. They forget they already got like 25m several years before.Well that is a flaw that the owners like, they want to keep a guy cheap for 4 years, even though they should be paid more.
And I dont mean like dak should have got 25 million a year in 2016, but 10 mil a year would have been fair back then and still cheap.
Then when that contract is up he might be more willing to sign at a reasonable rate.
The whole reason for the rookie contract system was to save money due to players being busts, mainly the # 1 picks , that were paid big,
but turned out to be duds.
Now they use it to exploit good low round players.
Well that is a flaw that the owners like, they want to keep a guy cheap for 4 years, even though they should be paid more.
And I dont mean like dak should have got 25 million a year in 2016, but 10 mil a year would have been fair back then and still cheap.
Then when that contract is up he might be more willing to sign at a reasonable rate.
The whole reason for the rookie contract system was to save money due to players being busts, mainly the # 1 picks , that were paid big,
but turned out to be duds.
Now they use it to exploit good low round players.
Anyone that knows what I post here knows I am not for signing Dak 30+ million a year. I just don't think he is as good as other people in here think he is. I could be flat our wrong and I'll admit it. It could be primarily coaching. But this losing 28 million stuff is flat our wrong. Even if Dak didn't reject the deal he still would have made 2.025 million dollars on the last year of his rookie contract. That doesn't get eliminated with an extension. It doesn't get replaced with an extension. Extension adds to the end of an existing contract. Had Dak signed before 2019 he would have got his bonus sooner. Not his new salary. Then the Cowboys could have used 2019 to spread out the cap hit. But that's for another thread.
The money per year isn't the issue.Sorry to create another Dak thread, ladies and gentlemen, but I believe that this one will add value to the public discourse.
Can one of you math geniuses help me to understand the Dak Prescott / Todd France negotiation strategy? Because for me, the numbers are not adding up.
I tried to provide links to source everything mentioned below.
In the summer of 2019, the Cowboys offered Dak a deal in the $30 million per year range. Some outlets report that he was actually offered $33 million per year.
He rejected the deal and instead played out the final year of his rookie contract, in which he earned $2.025 million dollars. This is about $28 million in lost earnings for 2019, or $31 million if the Clarence Hill report is correct.
According to reports, there is a new offer in the table now. It’s a $175 million dollar deal which pays Dak $35 million per year.
Dak has rejected this offer as well. If no deal is done, he will play on the franchise tag which will pay him $31.4 million dollars, a difference of $3.6 million dollars.
Can someone please help me understand this negotiating strategy and why it makes financial sense? That’s not even mentioning the enormous risk Dak is taking that he could get injured.
Let’s assume first that the Cowboys cave in July and Dak gets $35 million per year over 4 years. That means he’ll earn $5 million more than he would have if he signed the deal offered in August 2019.
Over the lifetime of the contract, 4 years, he will make $20 million more than he would have if he signed the original offer. But he’s out $28 million, so he’s at a net loss of $8 million!! And this assumes he was offered $30 million per year, because if he turned down $33 million, it looks even worse!
I’m assuming that the two signing bonuses are about the same, since the way they’re talking about the contract value ($140M, $175M, etc) it all works out the same.
Please chime in because I must be missing something.
My only thought is that perhaps the two sides are further apart than we know and this isn’t just about length of contract. To get back the money he lost, I mean just to break even, he’s need a contract that averages $37 million per year and obviously break even isn’t good enough or he would have signed the first deal offered.
I think that Dak’s agent wants $40 million per year - this has actually been reported. If he gets $40 million or $42 million per year, yeah, his agent’s tactics do indeed make sense.
So, bonus question for those who day “sign Dak now”, are you still for signing him at $40 million per year?
Thiughts are appreciated!!
Excellent point....folks are letting their Dak Hate inoculate themselves against the PAIN of a 3-5 win season.heres how the math adds up. You either pay the man, or we will not win 5 games this year. That's what is at risk here. I'm not sayin pay him 40 mil per, I'm saying, just get the years right, give him around 36 mil per, and be done with it.
OK, thanks I appreciate this response. Someone else wrote the same thing and I said that I don’t buy it. Looks like I might have been wrong.
Are you 100% sure? It’s just hard to believe. So it’s August 2019, you’re scheduled to make $2M and I add an extension so you’re making $35M per year. You’re OK with earning $2M this year and not starting to get your new salary until 2020?
You could very well be right but that just sounds wrong.
Plus any fan who cares about how much a player makes in my opinion is completely un-American.
Your logic is flawed based on using solely AAV. AAV does not equal cash flow. There were also extenuating circumstances that made it logical for him to wait from a cash flow perspective. I'll try to break down Dak/his agent's thinking.
By waiting a year, he has increased his total contract value. He allowed other QBs (Goff and Wentz) to reset the market and proceeded to outplay them, increasing his leverage to negotiate higher deals than them, thus increasing his guarantees, which in turn would increase his 3 year cash flow since most big contracts pay out the guarantees in 3 years regardless of length to allow future flexibility to cut/trade a player.
Now, likely the bigger factor in Dak's cash flow logic on waiting had to do with the contract rules that were in place last year as opposed to this year due to the new CBA. Because there was no new CBA signed as of last offseason, teams were at a disadvantage in terms flexibility of contract structures due to the 30% rule. The 30% rule states that contract years subsequent the final CBA year (which would have been this year) can not see raises greater than 30% of the player's salary in the final CBA year. Salary in this case means pretty much anything but signing bonus
As we know, teams like to sign big contracts with high signing bonuses and low early year salaries that balloon in later years ("funny money") to prorate the salary cap impact. What the 30% rule did was prevent those traditional ballooning salary structures. What teams did to counteract this rule separate a big signing bonus into two or three smaller bonuses. The traditional prorated signing bonus would be much smaller than typical followed by a slightly larger year 2 (final CPA year) Roster bonus or Option bonus. Roster bonuses hit the cap in the year signed and option bonuses are prorated over the length of the deal max 5 years.
Look at the contract Zeke signed with the Cowboys last season. He signed a small $7.5m signing bonus but received a $13m option bonus at the start of this season. You can also look at Jared Goff's and Carson Wentz's deals from last season and see the same idea.
Since there is a new CBA in place, there is no 30% restriction. Dak will receive a huge signing bonus upfront (upwards of 60+ million) on a 5/$175 million deal with guarantees around $115 million pr higher paid through 2022, a 3 year out for the team. Add that to the $2.025 million he made last year and that's a 4 year cash flow of $117 million.
Were he to have signed last year, he would have signed for less total value, plus the last year of his rookie deal would have been included in the total structure, making it a longer deal for cap purposes. Even at the high end, a 5 year deal He probably would received a $20 million bonus at signing with a salary still around $2 million. He would have received another bonus of 20-25 million that would be prorated with another low salary likely around $10 million. He'd likely have all guarantees paid through 2022, so his 4 year cash flow through 2022 would likely be around $110 million or so on a total contract value of 6 years $167 million.
As you can see, he's increased his max contract value, guarantees, and 3-4 year cash flow by waiting. Hopefully I explained things well enough but feel free to ask any questions you may have.