I see you avoided what I said. I understand, your logic has holes so it is best to avoid things.
BTW, when you use selective facts to persuade someone it is propaganda. I understand math very well, I understand it enough to include all available factors as those factors are necessary to determine the best probability of success.
The strawman argument you are using is that I am saying the chance of converting the 2 pointer changes. I never said that nor implied that anywhere. But if you fail on your early 2 point attempt the probability to do something about it just dropped almost to zero. Not quite zero but close enough. I would be willing to bet that if we gamed these 2 scenarios over and over and over my scenario would win more than yours would. Also in your scenario, you have to consider if you converted your 2 point conversion and pulled within 7 points, Atlanta would not just run 3 run plays and punt the ball back to us. They would see, oh crap, we better do something here and make a first down or two to end this game. As I have stated, one first down conversion pretty much ices this game. 2 for certain. Since Atlanta was up by 9 they played it super conservative thinking there is no way in heck these guys can win. Up by 8 they may try a little harder but not as hard as if up by 7. Little nuances that have to be considered also.