It's about information and having the most outs. If you go for the two early and miss then:
- You know you have to play to get two scores and dial up plays accordingly;
- The opposition know two scores are required and will play accordingly; and
- You have more information on each subsequent play and can adjust accordingly
At the time we went for two points there was 5:00 minutes on the clock with three time outs. That means there are three outs to get the win:
- Make it needing a single score to send it to overtime...game on
- Miss. But force a 3 and out....that leaves a small hope of playing a regular kick if you score quickly and still getting the ball back
- Miss. Gurley gets a 1st down, and you now know an onside kick is required
If you go for it late then you lose the last two outs because you have to play anticipating you will make the 2 points, and can't leave time on the clock. I'll take the extra outs even if they are low probability over some vague player psychology gained by players gained from more hope.