The draft pick scenarios

[DasSchnitzel]

In this week's thread I ended the Tank Watch series (thanks to everyone who followed along and joined the discussion) but I have seen some confusion around the board regarding our possible pick after week 17. Here's a quick-and-dirty breakdown of the scenarios.

If Dallas wins, WFT loses
Dallas goes to playoffs and gets the bottom division winner pick.

Best possible pick: 19
Worst possible pick: 32 (how 'bout them cowboys)
Likely pick: 19, projecting 0-1 playoff run

If Dallas wins, WFT wins
There are 4 other 6-9 teams (LAC, NE, MIN, SF). We have the lowest strength of schedule. Starting at 11, we drop one pick in the draft each time one of them loses.

There is a single 7-8 team (LV). LV, picking 16, has a higher strength-of-schedule by a lot so we cannot drop past LV.

Best possible pick: 11
Worst possible pick: 15.
Likely pick: 13 or 14, projecting the 4 teams listed to go 2-2 or 1-3.

If Dallas loses
There are 4 teams at 5-10 (DET, NYG, CAR, DEN). We have a lower SOS than all of them. Starting at 11, we climb one pick each time one of them wins. By default, since we're in the loss scenario, NYG can already be marked as a W, moving us to pick 10

There are 2 teams at 4-10-1 (PHI, CIN). Records will not allow us to pick in front of either.

Best possible pick: 7
Worst possible pick: 10
Likely pick: 9 or 10, projecting the 4 teams listed to go 1-3 or 2-2

My overall projection
Wins from DAL, WFT, NE, MIN.
Losses from SF, LAC.
We pick 14.

Hope that clears it up for everyone!

As it pertains to the talent available, I think you're getting about the same tier of prospect if you win regardless of the other outcomes, and same if you lose. The gaps between players in the back of the top 10 or middle of the first just isn't all that big and is more personal preference than anything.

 

[J12B]

I think you're projection is what's going to happen also.

Thanks for posting.

 

[john van brocklin]

In this week's thread I ended the Tank Watch series (thanks to everyone who followed along and joined the discussion) but I have seen some confusion around the board regarding our possible pick after week 17. Here's a quick-and-dirty breakdown of the scenarios.

If Dallas wins, WFT loses
Dallas goes to playoffs and gets the bottom division winner pick.

Best possible pick: 19
Worst possible pick: 32 (how 'bout them cowboys)
Likely pick: 19, projecting 0-1 playoff run

If Dallas wins, WFT wins
There are 4 other 6-9 teams (LAC, NE, MIN, SF). We have the lowest strength of schedule. Starting at 11, we drop one pick in the draft each time one of them loses.

There is a single 7-8 team (LV). LV, picking 16, has a higher strength-of-schedule by a lot so we cannot drop past LV.

Best possible pick: 11
Worst possible pick: 15.
Likely pick: 13 or 14, projecting the 4 teams listed to go 2-2 or 1-3.

If Dallas loses
There are 4 teams at 5-10 (DET, NYG, CAR, DEN). We have a lower SOS than all of them. Starting at 11, we climb one pick each time one of them wins. By default, since we're in the loss scenario, NYG can already be marked as a W, moving us to pick 10

There are 2 teams at 4-10-1 (PHI, CIN). Records will not allow us to pick in front of either.

Best possible pick: 7
Worst possible pick: 10
Likely pick: 9 or 10, projecting the 4 teams listed to go 1-3 or 2-2

My overall projection
Wins from DAL, WFT, NE, MIN.
Losses from SF, LAC.
We pick 14.

Hope that clears it up for everyone!

As it pertains to the talent available, I think you're getting about the same tier of prospect if you win regardless of the other outcomes, and same if you lose. The gaps between players in the back of the top 10 or middle of the first just isn't all that big and is more personal preference than anything.

Wow, thanks for your efforts

 

[big dog cowboy]

As it pertains to the talent available, I think you're getting about the same tier of prospect if you win regardless of the other outcomes, and same if you lose. The gaps between players in the back of the top 10 or middle of the first just isn't all that big and is more personal preference than anything.

Great post!

This point is one that will be well overlooked on Monday. Just wait and you will see there will be dozens and dozens of posts screaming how the Cowboys screwed themselves by winning.

It's my hope that no matter where the Cowboys end up picking there is a pool of players they like and get an offer to move down 3-4 spots. I seem to recall the Cowboys doing well at pick 17 last year.

 

[Jipper]

Get busy winning

Or get busy losing

 

[JoeKing]

In this week's thread I ended the Tank Watch series (thanks to everyone who followed along and joined the discussion) but I have seen some confusion around the board regarding our possible pick after week 17. Here's a quick-and-dirty breakdown of the scenarios.

If Dallas wins, WFT loses
Dallas goes to playoffs and gets the bottom division winner pick.

Best possible pick: 19
Worst possible pick: 32 (how 'bout them cowboys)
Likely pick: 19, projecting 0-1 playoff run

If Dallas wins, WFT wins
There are 4 other 6-9 teams (LAC, NE, MIN, SF). We have the lowest strength of schedule. Starting at 11, we drop one pick in the draft each time one of them loses.

There is a single 7-8 team (LV). LV, picking 16, has a higher strength-of-schedule by a lot so we cannot drop past LV.

Best possible pick: 11
Worst possible pick: 15.
Likely pick: 13 or 14, projecting the 4 teams listed to go 2-2 or 1-3.

If Dallas loses
There are 4 teams at 5-10 (DET, NYG, CAR, DEN). We have a lower SOS than all of them. Starting at 11, we climb one pick each time one of them wins. By default, since we're in the loss scenario, NYG can already be marked as a W, moving us to pick 10

There are 2 teams at 4-10-1 (PHI, CIN). Records will not allow us to pick in front of either.

Best possible pick: 7
Worst possible pick: 10
Likely pick: 9 or 10, projecting the 4 teams listed to go 1-3 or 2-2

My overall projection
Wins from DAL, WFT, NE, MIN.
Losses from SF, LAC.
We pick 14.

Hope that clears it up for everyone!

As it pertains to the talent available, I think you're getting about the same tier of prospect if you win regardless of the other outcomes, and same if you lose. The gaps between players in the back of the top 10 or middle of the first just isn't all that big and is more personal preference than anything.

To be more specific, If the Cowboys win and the WFT loses:

Cowboys make the playoffs and will host the Tampa Bay Bucs.

 

[catiii]

Does the SB Winner even get draft picks cause dat gonna be us.

 

[ghst187]

In this week's thread I ended the Tank Watch series (thanks to everyone who followed along and joined the discussion) but I have seen some confusion around the board regarding our possible pick after week 17. Here's a quick-and-dirty breakdown of the scenarios.

If Dallas wins, WFT loses
Dallas goes to playoffs and gets the bottom division winner pick.

Best possible pick: 19
Worst possible pick: 32 (how 'bout them cowboys)
Likely pick: 19, projecting 0-1 playoff run

If Dallas wins, WFT wins
There are 4 other 6-9 teams (LAC, NE, MIN, SF). We have the lowest strength of schedule. Starting at 11, we drop one pick in the draft each time one of them loses.

There is a single 7-8 team (LV). LV, picking 16, has a higher strength-of-schedule by a lot so we cannot drop past LV.

Best possible pick: 11
Worst possible pick: 15.
Likely pick: 13 or 14, projecting the 4 teams listed to go 2-2 or 1-3.

If Dallas loses
There are 4 teams at 5-10 (DET, NYG, CAR, DEN). We have a lower SOS than all of them. Starting at 11, we climb one pick each time one of them wins. By default, since we're in the loss scenario, NYG can already be marked as a W, moving us to pick 10

There are 2 teams at 4-10-1 (PHI, CIN). Records will not allow us to pick in front of either.

Best possible pick: 7
Worst possible pick: 10
Likely pick: 9 or 10, projecting the 4 teams listed to go 1-3 or 2-2

My overall projection
Wins from DAL, WFT, NE, MIN.
Losses from SF, LAC.
We pick 14.

Hope that clears it up for everyone!

As it pertains to the talent available, I think you're getting about the same tier of prospect if you win regardless of the other outcomes, and same if you lose. The gaps between players in the back of the top 10 or middle of the first just isn't all that big and is more personal preference than anything.

thanks for the research!

 

[DogFace]

Yep. Great post @DasSchnitzel

Thanks.

 

[jazzcat22]

In this week's thread I ended the Tank Watch series (thanks to everyone who followed along and joined the discussion) but I have seen some confusion around the board regarding our possible pick after week 17. Here's a quick-and-dirty breakdown of the scenarios.

If Dallas wins, WFT loses
Dallas goes to playoffs and gets the bottom division winner pick.

Best possible pick: 19
Worst possible pick: 32 (how 'bout them cowboys)
Likely pick: 19, projecting 0-1 playoff run

If Dallas wins, WFT wins
There are 4 other 6-9 teams (LAC, NE, MIN, SF). We have the lowest strength of schedule. Starting at 11, we drop one pick in the draft each time one of them loses.

There is a single 7-8 team (LV). LV, picking 16, has a higher strength-of-schedule by a lot so we cannot drop past LV.

Best possible pick: 11
Worst possible pick: 15.
Likely pick: 13 or 14, projecting the 4 teams listed to go 2-2 or 1-3.

If Dallas loses
There are 4 teams at 5-10 (DET, NYG, CAR, DEN). We have a lower SOS than all of them. Starting at 11, we climb one pick each time one of them wins. By default, since we're in the loss scenario, NYG can already be marked as a W, moving us to pick 10

There are 2 teams at 4-10-1 (PHI, CIN). Records will not allow us to pick in front of either.

Best possible pick: 7
Worst possible pick: 10
Likely pick: 9 or 10, projecting the 4 teams listed to go 1-3 or 2-2

My overall projection
Wins from DAL, WFT, NE, MIN.
Losses from SF, LAC.
We pick 14.

Hope that clears it up for everyone!

As it pertains to the talent available, I think you're getting about the same tier of prospect if you win regardless of the other outcomes, and same if you lose. The gaps between players in the back of the top 10 or middle of the first just isn't all that big and is more personal preference than anything.

thanks for all your effort each week on all of this. one thing, KC is resting Mahomes, probably others, so LAC have a chance to win.

 

[Hadenough]

I seem to recall the Cowboys doing well at pick 17 last year.

I dont know If I would call that doing well. Even though Lamb was a very good pick he was more of a luxury for this team. To me draft position is big! Reminds me of when the Cowboys were 4 picks away from drafting Aaron Donald or one pick from drafting Shazier. One pick away from taking Bosa instead of Zeke.

 

[fivetwos]

I dont know If I would call that doing well. Even though Lamb was a very good pick he was more of a luxury for this team. To me draft position is big! Reminds me of when the Cowboys were 4 picks away from drafting Aaron Donald or one pick from drafting Shazier. One pick away from taking Bosa instead of Zeke.

Not disagreeing w you but would they have taken Bosa over Elliott?

Even if there were was talk of that at the time, I'm not sure Jerry passes on the jersey sale/entertainment factor of the already well known RB.

 

[Jipper]

Not disagreeing w you but would they have taken Bosa over Elliott?

Even if there were was talk of that at the time, I'm not sure Jerry passes on the jersey sale/entertainment factor of the already well known RB.

At the time zeke was the top offensive weapon in the draft and was taken for that reason, not jersey sales.


Unfortunately jerry doesn’t understand why you don’t draft rbs in the first round

 

[Established1971]

In this week's thread I ended the Tank Watch series (thanks to everyone who followed along and joined the discussion) but I have seen some confusion around the board regarding our possible pick after week 17. Here's a quick-and-dirty breakdown of the scenarios.

If Dallas wins, WFT loses
Dallas goes to playoffs and gets the bottom division winner pick.

Best possible pick: 19
Worst possible pick: 32 (how 'bout them cowboys)
Likely pick: 19, projecting 0-1 playoff run

If Dallas wins, WFT wins
There are 4 other 6-9 teams (LAC, NE, MIN, SF). We have the lowest strength of schedule. Starting at 11, we drop one pick in the draft each time one of them loses.

There is a single 7-8 team (LV). LV, picking 16, has a higher strength-of-schedule by a lot so we cannot drop past LV.

Best possible pick: 11
Worst possible pick: 15.
Likely pick: 13 or 14, projecting the 4 teams listed to go 2-2 or 1-3.

If Dallas loses
There are 4 teams at 5-10 (DET, NYG, CAR, DEN). We have a lower SOS than all of them. Starting at 11, we climb one pick each time one of them wins. By default, since we're in the loss scenario, NYG can already be marked as a W, moving us to pick 10

There are 2 teams at 4-10-1 (PHI, CIN). Records will not allow us to pick in front of either.

Best possible pick: 7
Worst possible pick: 10
Likely pick: 9 or 10, projecting the 4 teams listed to go 1-3 or 2-2

My overall projection
Wins from DAL, WFT, NE, MIN.
Losses from SF, LAC.
We pick 14.

Hope that clears it up for everyone!

As it pertains to the talent available, I think you're getting about the same tier of prospect if you win regardless of the other outcomes, and same if you lose. The gaps between players in the back of the top 10 or middle of the first just isn't all that big and is more personal preference than anything.

if for all the other teams you use the city only like Dall, NE, MIN, SF, DET, CAR, DEN then why dont you just call the other team WASH? Its not like WASH has two teams

 

[blueblood70]

In this week's thread I ended the Tank Watch series (thanks to everyone who followed along and joined the discussion) but I have seen some confusion around the board regarding our possible pick after week 17. Here's a quick-and-dirty breakdown of the scenarios.

If Dallas wins, WFT loses
Dallas goes to playoffs and gets the bottom division winner pick.

Best possible pick: 19
Worst possible pick: 32 (how 'bout them cowboys)
Likely pick: 19, projecting 0-1 playoff run

If Dallas wins, WFT wins
There are 4 other 6-9 teams (LAC, NE, MIN, SF). We have the lowest strength of schedule. Starting at 11, we drop one pick in the draft each time one of them loses.

There is a single 7-8 team (LV). LV, picking 16, has a higher strength-of-schedule by a lot so we cannot drop past LV.

Best possible pick: 11
Worst possible pick: 15.
Likely pick: 13 or 14, projecting the 4 teams listed to go 2-2 or 1-3.

If Dallas loses
There are 4 teams at 5-10 (DET, NYG, CAR, DEN). We have a lower SOS than all of them. Starting at 11, we climb one pick each time one of them wins. By default, since we're in the loss scenario, NYG can already be marked as a W, moving us to pick 10

There are 2 teams at 4-10-1 (PHI, CIN). Records will not allow us to pick in front of either.

Best possible pick: 7
Worst possible pick: 10
Likely pick: 9 or 10, projecting the 4 teams listed to go 1-3 or 2-2

My overall projection
Wins from DAL, WFT, NE, MIN.
Losses from SF, LAC.
We pick 14.

Hope that clears it up for everyone!

As it pertains to the talent available, I think you're getting about the same tier of prospect if you win regardless of the other outcomes, and same if you lose. The gaps between players in the back of the top 10 or middle of the first just isn't all that big and is more personal preference than anything.

thanks for the time on the write up,

not really clearing it up until 11pm Sunday night..we will know for sure,,then the real fun starts what defensive players are going to be available to us in this draft at our spot..its not where you pick its who you pick , we need to make the best choices for our Needs, DBs, LBs, and DT are priorities really in all 7 rounds IMHO....

FA is first though so this is way early :0) because who we sign or dont sign in FA will determine more of our glaring needs in the draft

 

[Zordon]

Nice post.

 

[CalPolyTechnique]

In this week's thread I ended the Tank Watch series (thanks to everyone who followed along and joined the discussion) but I have seen some confusion around the board regarding our possible pick after week 17. Here's a quick-and-dirty breakdown of the scenarios.

If Dallas wins, WFT loses
Dallas goes to playoffs and gets the bottom division winner pick.

Best possible pick: 19
Worst possible pick: 32 (how 'bout them cowboys)
Likely pick: 19, projecting 0-1 playoff run

If Dallas wins, WFT wins
There are 4 other 6-9 teams (LAC, NE, MIN, SF). We have the lowest strength of schedule. Starting at 11, we drop one pick in the draft each time one of them loses.

There is a single 7-8 team (LV). LV, picking 16, has a higher strength-of-schedule by a lot so we cannot drop past LV.

Best possible pick: 11
Worst possible pick: 15.
Likely pick: 13 or 14, projecting the 4 teams listed to go 2-2 or 1-3.

If Dallas loses
There are 4 teams at 5-10 (DET, NYG, CAR, DEN). We have a lower SOS than all of them. Starting at 11, we climb one pick each time one of them wins. By default, since we're in the loss scenario, NYG can already be marked as a W, moving us to pick 10

There are 2 teams at 4-10-1 (PHI, CIN). Records will not allow us to pick in front of either.

Best possible pick: 7
Worst possible pick: 10
Likely pick: 9 or 10, projecting the 4 teams listed to go 1-3 or 2-2

My overall projection
Wins from DAL, WFT, NE, MIN.
Losses from SF, LAC.
We pick 14.

Hope that clears it up for everyone!

As it pertains to the talent available, I think you're getting about the same tier of prospect if you win regardless of the other outcomes, and same if you lose. The gaps between players in the back of the top 10 or middle of the first just isn't all that big and is more personal preference than anything.

This was helpful. Thanks

 

[dallasdave]

In this week's thread I ended the Tank Watch series (thanks to everyone who followed along and joined the discussion) but I have seen some confusion around the board regarding our possible pick after week 17. Here's a quick-and-dirty breakdown of the scenarios.

If Dallas wins, WFT loses
Dallas goes to playoffs and gets the bottom division winner pick.

Best possible pick: 19
Worst possible pick: 32 (how 'bout them cowboys)
Likely pick: 19, projecting 0-1 playoff run

If Dallas wins, WFT wins
There are 4 other 6-9 teams (LAC, NE, MIN, SF). We have the lowest strength of schedule. Starting at 11, we drop one pick in the draft each time one of them loses.

There is a single 7-8 team (LV). LV, picking 16, has a higher strength-of-schedule by a lot so we cannot drop past LV.

Best possible pick: 11
Worst possible pick: 15.
Likely pick: 13 or 14, projecting the 4 teams listed to go 2-2 or 1-3.

If Dallas loses
There are 4 teams at 5-10 (DET, NYG, CAR, DEN). We have a lower SOS than all of them. Starting at 11, we climb one pick each time one of them wins. By default, since we're in the loss scenario, NYG can already be marked as a W, moving us to pick 10

There are 2 teams at 4-10-1 (PHI, CIN). Records will not allow us to pick in front of either.

Best possible pick: 7
Worst possible pick: 10
Likely pick: 9 or 10, projecting the 4 teams listed to go 1-3 or 2-2

My overall projection
Wins from DAL, WFT, NE, MIN.
Losses from SF, LAC.
We pick 14.

Hope that clears it up for everyone!

As it pertains to the talent available, I think you're getting about the same tier of prospect if you win regardless of the other outcomes, and same if you lose. The gaps between players in the back of the top 10 or middle of the first just isn't all that big and is more personal preference than anything.

Nice write up --good info

 

[fivetwos]

At the time zeke was the top offensive weapon in the draft and was taken for that reason, not jersey sales.


Unfortunately jerry doesn’t understand why you don’t draft rbs in the first round

The jersey sale thing was just a random shot at Jerry.

I get it.

 

[conner01]

In this week's thread I ended the Tank Watch series (thanks to everyone who followed along and joined the discussion) but I have seen some confusion around the board regarding our possible pick after week 17. Here's a quick-and-dirty breakdown of the scenarios.

If Dallas wins, WFT loses
Dallas goes to playoffs and gets the bottom division winner pick.

Best possible pick: 19
Worst possible pick: 32 (how 'bout them cowboys)
Likely pick: 19, projecting 0-1 playoff run

If Dallas wins, WFT wins
There are 4 other 6-9 teams (LAC, NE, MIN, SF). We have the lowest strength of schedule. Starting at 11, we drop one pick in the draft each time one of them loses.

There is a single 7-8 team (LV). LV, picking 16, has a higher strength-of-schedule by a lot so we cannot drop past LV.

Best possible pick: 11
Worst possible pick: 15.
Likely pick: 13 or 14, projecting the 4 teams listed to go 2-2 or 1-3.

If Dallas loses
There are 4 teams at 5-10 (DET, NYG, CAR, DEN). We have a lower SOS than all of them. Starting at 11, we climb one pick each time one of them wins. By default, since we're in the loss scenario, NYG can already be marked as a W, moving us to pick 10

There are 2 teams at 4-10-1 (PHI, CIN). Records will not allow us to pick in front of either.

Best possible pick: 7
Worst possible pick: 10
Likely pick: 9 or 10, projecting the 4 teams listed to go 1-3 or 2-2

My overall projection
Wins from DAL, WFT, NE, MIN.
Losses from SF, LAC.
We pick 14.

Hope that clears it up for everyone!

As it pertains to the talent available, I think you're getting about the same tier of prospect if you win regardless of the other outcomes, and same if you lose. The gaps between players in the back of the top 10 or middle of the first just isn't all that big and is more personal preference than anything.

Nice work
And I think you are right on