The draft pick scenarios

[fivetwos]

thanks for the time on the write up,

not really clearing it up until 11pm Sunday night..we will know for sure,,then the real fun starts what defensive players are going to be available to us in this draft at our spot..its not where you pick its who you pick , we need to make the best choices for our Needs, DBs, LBs, and DT are priorities really in all 7 rounds IMHO....

FA is first though so this is way early :0) because who we sign or dont sign in FA will determine more of our glaring needs in the draft

Every draft is essentially a crapshoot, but this one especially because of how the college season went.

A handful of highly ranked players didnt even play.

The difference between drafting 19th or 10/11 will very likely mean nothing. Luck will mean more than ever.

Getting our team playoff experience and believing in MM and getting used to winning is far more valuable than 8 or so spots in this draft.

We need to get in the tournament here. For some reason (possibly TV ratings lol) I think its gonna happen.

(See I do post positive things here and there BB70!)

 

[FiveSuperBowls]

In this week's thread I ended the Tank Watch series (thanks to everyone who followed along and joined the discussion) but I have seen some confusion around the board regarding our possible pick after week 17. Here's a quick-and-dirty breakdown of the scenarios.

If Dallas wins, WFT loses
Dallas goes to playoffs and gets the bottom division winner pick.

Best possible pick: 19
Worst possible pick: 32 (how 'bout them cowboys)
Likely pick: 19, projecting 0-1 playoff run

If Dallas wins, WFT wins
There are 4 other 6-9 teams (LAC, NE, MIN, SF). We have the lowest strength of schedule. Starting at 11, we drop one pick in the draft each time one of them loses.

There is a single 7-8 team (LV). LV, picking 16, has a higher strength-of-schedule by a lot so we cannot drop past LV.

Best possible pick: 11
Worst possible pick: 15.
Likely pick: 13 or 14, projecting the 4 teams listed to go 2-2 or 1-3.

If Dallas loses
There are 4 teams at 5-10 (DET, NYG, CAR, DEN). We have a lower SOS than all of them. Starting at 11, we climb one pick each time one of them wins. By default, since we're in the loss scenario, NYG can already be marked as a W, moving us to pick 10

There are 2 teams at 4-10-1 (PHI, CIN). Records will not allow us to pick in front of either.

Best possible pick: 7
Worst possible pick: 10
Likely pick: 9 or 10, projecting the 4 teams listed to go 1-3 or 2-2

My overall projection
Wins from DAL, WFT, NE, MIN.
Losses from SF, LAC.
We pick 14.

Hope that clears it up for everyone!

As it pertains to the talent available, I think you're getting about the same tier of prospect if you win regardless of the other outcomes, and same if you lose. The gaps between players in the back of the top 10 or middle of the first just isn't all that big and is more personal preference than anything.

Awesome post, I think your projection with both a DAL and WFT win are likely to happen.

 

[GMO415]

I'll find out the week of the draft, otherwise its a waste of calories.

 

[blueblood70]

Every draft is essentially a crapshoot, but this one especially because of how the college season went.

A handful of highly ranked players didnt even play.

The difference between drafting 19th or 10/11 will very likely mean nothing. Luck will mean more than ever.

Getting our team playoff experience and believing in MM and getting used to winning is far more valuable than 8 or so spots in this draft.

We need to get in the tournament here. For some reason (possibly TV ratings lol) I think its gonna happen.

(See I do post positive things here and there BB70!)

we dont agree on much but i agree with that statement..

 

[tyke1doe]

We've long been out of the Trevor Lawrence sweepstakes, and without that many identifiable generational players, I'm fine with whereever we draft.

Even if we make the playoffs and lose, at least we will have had the excitement of hope between the last game of the season and the beginning of the opening game of the playoffs.

 

[gimmesix]

if for all the other teams you use the city only like Dall, NE, MIN, SF, DET, CAR, DEN then why dont you just call the other team WASH? Its not like WASH has two teams

That's what you got from his post?

 

[DasSchnitzel]

Opened Cowboys Zone this morning and had 12 alerts and my first thought was "what did I say and how long am I benched"



Thanks everyone for the kind words!

 

[DasSchnitzel]

Great post!

This point is one that will be well overlooked on Monday. Just wait and you will see there will be dozens and dozens of posts screaming how the Cowboys screwed themselves by winning.

It's my hope that no matter where the Cowboys end up picking there is a pool of players they like and get an offer to move down 3-4 spots. I seem to recall the Cowboys doing well at pick 17 last year.

People look at the draft and over estimate how objective and clearly defined it is. In reality, using this year as an example, you've got one prospect who's above everyone else. Then you've got a few people in the next tier. Then there's about 6 to 7 in the next tier and most of them are on offense. Then you've got about 10 to 12 in the next tier. Position and ability play roles in this, especially in regards to QBs.

If you're not moving tiers then it doesn't much matter. This year, if you're not picking offense and you also aren't feeling great about these top 10 defensive players then you arent missing out on much by winning this game and ending up somewhere between 11 and 15.

Do I think anyone from 11 to 15 is a lock as a superstar? No. But I feel a ton better about the player im getting at the pick im using at 13. Surtain outside, Paye on edge, Owusu honey badgering, Farley hopefully not getting hurt -- all of these are options that, as of Jan 2nd, I can get excited and feel good about at pick 13. They all feel overpriced at 4.

But again it's only Jan 2nd. By draft day I may laugh at these sentiments. We'll see.

Now if you get into the playoffs then sure, that changes things and we've fallen into tier 5 players or so and getting close to 2nd round grades. But I dont care. Being the 7-9 team that beat Brady out of the playoffs would be awesome because it'll be held against him in the legacy debate for decades. In my opinion we have to try.