Source: NFL Salary Cap could be $185 million this season

[jterrell]

"Expect more short-term deals from veterans, who will look to land a more lucrative contract the following season when the salary cap inevitable explodes."

My question is this based solely on the recently signed streaming deals or actual viewership? Are they expecting more fans to watch the games than currently do?

Not really, no
They are planning to maximize viewers by offering both TV and streaming options for all games.
As you add in many companies getting a small piece the overall dollars go up.
Streaming companies like Hulu and Netfli, ESPN+ are now where Fox/ESPN was 25 years ago.
They are fighting to win the new streaming territory.
And each of these apps has targeted specific charges to users rather than middle manning between you and cable/sat.

 

[rnr_honeybadger]

I am to trust the economists and plans that are already laid out

Yea because those people all have crystal balls and are never wrong. Hell just look at any crash in the last quarter of a century.

 

[jterrell]

As of right now if the cap were to be 185m, Dallas is less than 7m under the cap, if the cap is 175m they are slightly over the cap with 61 players on under contract.

Dallas Cowboys Salary Cap | Over the Cap

Any restructuring to get Dak's Franchise tag done would hamstring the Cowboys from doing anything even warm bodies off the street that know what football is.

This is completely and terribly untrue in every way.

Dallas is scheduled to have Amari and Zeke and Jaylon all restructure because the base salaries are already guaranteed. --Dallas invented this and it is called "scheduled" restructure.
It is what has grown to be Roster bonuses but Dallas is fine with it remaining a scheduled restructure because it gives them option to flip or not.

One of the best math nerds did the math at 192, others are now saying 185 so we won;t know for sure until March but it is coming up off the floor.

End of day Dallas is fine. They can tag Dak and have very little free agency money or they can extend Dal longer term and go play now.
From a cap standpoint i really doesn't matter much. Pushing 30 M forward to future caps to eat 30M more of Dak cash now is net neutral long term.
--the only caveat is if they push money forward that bites them fairly immediately in case of a retirement or release.
BUT even then it won't hurt so badly because you can use post June designations to dump money an additional year off and the cap IS going to rise very fast and very high.

 

[rnr_honeybadger]

Every person who is paid money to analyze and predict future NFL income knows the cap will explode next year.

Are these the same people who were paid to analyze and predict the future NFL income who did not forsee revenues falling because of the pandemic? You act like forecasts are somehow set in stone and this is a sure thing. Last I looked anyone can fart in an empty room and claim that he commands the wind.

 

[Adreme]

Are these the same people who were paid to analyze and predict the future NFL income who did not forsee revenues falling because of the pandemic? You act like forecasts are somehow set in stone and this is a sure thing. Last I looked anyone can fart in an empty room and claim that he commands the wind.

hmmm, considering that it took a once in a 100 year pandemic for them to be wrong for the first time in 20 years for them to be wrong, and they pretty quickly modeled it in, and built current estimates based on these numbers.

Basically unless an entirely new pandemic appears with a new disease that doesn’t exist yet (aka a once in a century event happening on back to back years) then the model will certainly hold. The debate among intelligent people isn’t whether the cap will explode, but by how much. Will it bottom out at 210 or will it reach 220? These are the questions asked by people who analyze numbers for a living because that is what the numbers say.

 

[rnr_honeybadger]

considering that it took a once in a 100 year pandemic for them to be wrong for the first time in 20 years

Dubious claim that is backed up by nothing other than the same people who claim to command the wind.

 

[TheMarathonContinues]

23 million is a huge drop. Wow, there will be some older, very good players available in FA. Too bad the Cowboys aren't in a position to bring in some talent.

They don’t need older players anyway.

 

[DFWJC]

Although the cap should even be lower for this one year, I think the plan was to smooth things out by "borrowing" from future expected cap values.

 

[Adreme]

Dubious claim that is backed up by nothing other than the same people who claim to command the wind.

That it was a once in a century pandemic? You know we have things called history right. We recorded events of the past, we are not just blindly guessing with no clue what happened 25 50 100 or even 1000 years ago. They are recorded and available to be read up on. That is how we know it is a once in a century event.

 

[rnr_honeybadger]

That it was a once in a century pandemic?

WHOOSH!!!

 

[TwoCentPlain]

That the salary cap is going to be $180 mil.......duh.

The proof is coming. Now you just hold your breath and wait.

I am only repeating what I read about what insiders are saying about the cap likely being $180M. The OP talked about the cap being $175-185M. Perhaps you can get your calculator out and do some cyphering and figure out where 180 falls within that range.

 

[Adreme]

WHOOSH!!!

Yawn you are boring me now kiddo. I assume you are done saying things of value.

 

[CouchCoach]

The looming TV net/streaming deals are driving this and they know this is going to recover and the ratings drop is of no concern.

It doesn't matter if the ratings do not rebound because NFL broadcasts have two critical elements for TV. They are still the largest gathering of viewers of any programming and just as important, they are live and less likely to be time shifted. There are agencies that will not buy TV programming that can be easily time shifted. Ask any ardent TV viewer how long it takes to watch a 60 minute TV commercial broadcast, they know it's 42 minutes.....without commercials.

The last thing I read about this was the cap would be 195M but I do not recall the source of that.

 

[Rockport]

The proof is coming. Now you just hold your breath and wait.

I am only repeating what I read about what insiders are saying about the cap likely being $180M. The OP talked about the cap being $175-185M. Perhaps you can get your calculator out and do some cyphering and figure out where 180 falls within that range.

The point is you don't know what the cap is going to be. Because it hasn't been determined by the NFL yet.

 

[Sydla]

The best part of these threads is watching Rockport piss all over himself in anger.

 

[Sydla]

As of right now if the cap were to be 185m, Dallas is less than 7m under the cap, if the cap is 175m they are slightly over the cap with 61 players on under contract.

Dallas Cowboys Salary Cap | Over the Cap

Any restructuring to get Dak's Franchise tag done would hamstring the Cowboys from doing anything even warm bodies off the street that know what football is.

Maybe I am reading this wrong but if you look at the total cap space per each team for 2021 on the main page, the Cowboys are at $13 million over but that's assuming the cap is $176 million. So if it's $185 million, then the Cowboys would have around $22-23 million in space. I think your mistake is that you aren't accounting for rollover dollars. While the league cap could be $185 million, because of rollover dollars, Dallas's cap will actually be higher than $185 million.

Spotrac has us at $17 million under the cap for 2021 based on a cap of $175 million for the league (that includes nearly $25 million in rollovers). If the cap goes to $185 million, then our cap space if $27 million (according to Spotrac). According to them, our cap wouldn't be $185 million, it would be roughly $210 million due to the rollover.

 

[atlantacowboy]

But he threw for 400 yards and look at his stats....his stats.....his nice shiny stats....but not the W-L record that's a team stat so it doesn't count even though he is part of the team and is demanding a lions share of the team's salary cap be allotted to him.

I saw a stat a few weeks ago where Dak hadn't lead a 4th quarter come from behind win in 3 seasons.

 

[Frozen700]

This tells me that Dak will be franchise tagged once again, earning him a $37.7 one year salary for 2021. This will give the Cowboys a chance to keep Dak once again as their starting QB while enabling the team to see how well Dak's injured lower leg has healed and holds up throughout 2021. If Dak's leg heals and holds up well, expect a big contract extension at the end of the 2021 season when the salary cap is expected to exponentially expand starting in 2022. If Dak's leg starts giving him problems and has a setback, 2021 might be the last year Dak plays in Dallas due to injury.

I pray if we don't out right let him walk, that we do this.

This would ultimately mean, he's leaving

 

[ondaedg]

23 million is a huge drop. Wow, there will be some older, very good players available in FA. Too bad the Cowboys aren't in a position to bring in some talent.

198-185 = 13mil. How did you come up with 23?

 

[USArmyVet]

So if that turns out to be the number then yet again the Cowboys will be restructuring contracts and kicking older players contracts further down the road and putting this team even more in a cesspool than it already is.