morasp
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With free agency slowing down and college pro days in full swing and still a lot holes on our roster I wanted to do a mock draft to see what we could expect to get with our draft picks. I will probably do one more between now and the draft. With a lot of needs my goal was to get as many players with starter grades as I could. That's a fairly subjective assessment but I like to use the prospect grades on NFL.com. They call any player with a grade of 6.3-6.49 a starter within two years and any player with a grade of 6.5 or more a year one starter, a grade of 7.0 or higher is a pro bowl talent, and a grade of 6.0-6.29 is a quality backup that could become a starter. There are 162 players with a grade of at least 6.0, 49 players with a grade of at least 6.3, 12 players with a grade above 6.5 and 5 players with a grade above 7.0. I ended up with 6 players with starter grades and 6 that could become starters and be quality backups. Eight defensive players and four offensive.
When pick 10 was up Trey Lance was still available and the Steelers offered to switch firsts and send us their second third and fourth round picks. That's 1300 points for our pick and 1289 for theirs so the value is slightly in their favor. My thoughts on having that many picks are there are starter graded players through round three and Jimmy Johnson used a lot of picks to build the team, if a second round pick didn't pan out there were two other day two or three picks that did like Darren Woodson or Leon Lett or even Larry Brown.
The simulator used was Fanspeak Ontheclock with the Draftplex big borad which is the only one I've found that doesn't have round one players ranked 140th or something like that. Lastly, I know for certain that this is not how the real draft will fall and certain I've players picked won't last that long but to be fair until the draft is held nobody including the teams know exactly when players will be picked.
24:R1P24 CB Jaycee Horn South Carolina. Rank 14 draft grade 6.46 Starter within two years
He could become our CB1 that would be an upgrade over Awuzie. He's grabby but so was Diggs and they fixed that with him.
Overview
Three-year starter with tantalizing combination of size and length that is clearly effective when matched in tight man coverage. Horn can line up in any cover scheme and often traveled with the opponent’s most talented target. He plays with desired eye discipline from zone and the talent to impede release from press. He does an above-average job of closing, crowding and eliminating comfortable windows for quarterbacks to throw into, but his route anticipation is average. Horn can play with solid technique, but he became too reliant on the college game’s tendency to allow mauling beyond five yards and that must be cleaned up moving forward. He needs more consistent effort in run support, but the traits and upside are extremely appealing despite a lack of high-end ball production. Horn offers immediate starting help with a high upside.
44:R2P12 S Tre'Von Moehrig TCU Rank 34 draft grade 6.35 Starter within two years
Levi Onwuzurike was gone and we've needed a safety for a long time.
Overview
Very talented height-weight-speed prospect with the range and ball skills to become an impact defender at the next level. Moehrig possesses the overall talent to play in a variety of coverages, including over the slot against big targets, but his talent might be best served as a high safety where his instincts and anticipation lead him to the football. He's a talented ball tracker with soft hands and does a very good job of maintaining balance and positioning to make a play. While he can strike like a pro, he's not always a knock-back tackler and his inconsistent angles to ball-carriers present a bit of a concern as a last line of defense. His 2019 tape was a little better than 2020, but he has the talent and traits to become a good starter early in his career.
55:R2P23 LB Nick Bolton Missouri Rank 37 draft grade 6.33 Starter within two years
Shorter than they like and didn't have the best pro day but his instincts are very good
Overview
When you think about strong, forceful inside linebackers, Bolton is the type of player you might be envisioning. He's going to fall below typical NFL starter standards from a size standpoint, but his rugged frame and forceful demeanor help make up for it. Play recognition and pursuit instincts help carry him to the football and he's a message-sending striker when he gets the runner squared up. He has functional short-area burst between the tackles but will struggle to run down the outside run if he's not close enough to the action. He will need to lean heavier on his instincts to help speed him up because of size and speed limitations. Bolton plays with good field recognition when dropping into zone and has a history of making plays on the football in coverage. He's a three-down linebacker who can make an immediate contribution on special teams and has the potential to become a future starter.
75:R3P11 WR Elijah Moore Ole Miss Rank 25 draft grade 6.41 Starter within two years
This is a pure value pick. Add to strength and there's no telling how they'll handle the salary cap when Gallup's rookie contract is up and Dak's cap hit goes up. It reminds me of something the Chiefs would do.
Overview
Ultra-competitive slot target with the talent and mindset to handle a heavy amount of targets and shine in the process. He's not very big, but he's stronger than his measurables might suggest and he's shown a fearlessness to make the catch despite impending punishment. Moore has the short-area quickness to snap off crisp routes underneath for separation and the play speed to challenge over the top as well as work the deep middle. He has soft, sure hands and above-average ball skills with a great feel for spatial awareness to hit the sweet spots when working against zone. While longer, more physical cornerbacks could slow him a little bit in the NFL, his athletic profile and playing demeanor should lead evaluators to believe he will be a very good pro early in his career.
87:R3P11 C Quinn Meinerz Wisconsin -Whitewater Rank 41 draft grade 6.31 Starter within two years
Another value pick. Add to strength, our offense is best when the offensive line is good. He can play guard or center very well.
Overview
The darling of this year's Senior Bowl, Meinerz has broken through and onto NFL draft boards despite moving up from Division III and having no 2020 tape. He flashed at times in 2019, but his tape was nothing like what we saw against upgraded competition across from him at the Senior Bowl. His hands have improved greatly and his movement appears to be much more efficient and powerful. The step up to NFL competition will require an adjustment period as a full-time move to center likely awaits him. He has the ability to move and finish drive blocks and his pass protection is clearly improving. He has the strength and demeanor to become an impactful starter in the near future.
99:R3P35 Edge Payton Turner Houston Rank 57 draft grade 6.27 Good Backup that could become starter.
They've met with him and you can't have enough pass rushers.
Overview
Three-year starter who has shown a continued level of positional growth that requires the attention of NFL evaluators. Turner is a big, long 4-3 defense end with natural play strength and a surprising level of bend and agility for his size. His technique and footwork are a little spotty, though. He plays with a narrow base and tall pad level, which will always be something he has to work around. He's growing into his frame and his talent. The tape shows a player who is beginning to understand his own strength and athletic potential. His pass rush plan is limited, but he has a go-to move that opens the door to quarterbacks. Once he gets an advantage, he is an absolute menace to recover against for blockers. His size and play traits will have both odd- and even-front defenses interested in him as a talented three-down starter who is still on the way up.
109:R4P4 DL Milton Williams Louisiana Tech Rank 67 draft grade 6.25 Good Backup that could become starter.
High interest in him by the cowboys and I think they're targeting him.
Overview
Pound for pound, Williams can match his toughness and strength with many of the interior defenders in this draft. Determining his best positional fit will be up to the team that drafts him, but he's a good football player who understands leverage and knows how to use his hands. He'll have some bumpy snaps from time to time due to a lack of length and overall mass, but it shouldn't be debilitating for his NFL career. Williams possesses twitchy power and short-area athleticism, but needs to continue the development of working the hands and feet as one to unlock his potential. His pass rush is relatively pedestrian at this time and will need to be upgraded to become more than just a good backup. Teams will weigh the tape and testing against subpar physical traits, but the end result could land him in the middle rounds as an upside talent.
128:R4P23 OT Jaylon Moore Western Michigan Rank 93 draft grade 6.19 Good Backup that could become starter.
A good guard tackle option with good footwork. He's not Slater or Sewell but this is day three and he should make the team and would be an upgrade.
Overview
Athletic tackle/guard prospect who is at his best when he's allowed to play on the move and utilize his athletic ability to create angle advantages in space. He's fluid and consistent on play-side climb-ups to seal the linebacker and has the potential to help create back-side tracks for one-cut runners. He has huge hands and adequate length but needs to win early with those hands or he can be overtaken by stronger defenders. If Moore can eliminate his leaning, he has the technique and traits to be competitive as a blocker. He might need to prove he can offer tackle/guard roster flexibility in order to garner and maintain a backup role.
138:R4P33 Edge Chris Rumph II Duke Rank 42 draft grade 6.31 Starter within two years
This has to be a glitch with the drafplex big board but if he was there I'd take him. He needs to get stronger but he has the skillset and was highly proudctive.
Strengths
179:R5P35 DL Bobby Brown III Texas A&M Rank 111 draft grade 6.14 Good Backup that could become starter.
Good value at DT and could play 1T or 3T.
Overview
Interior defender with the size and pad level to handle reps at nose or three-technique in an even front. Brown shed weight in 2020 and played at a fairly high level inside an SEC-only schedule. His footwork and body control are inconsistent, leading to clear wins and clear losses, but he has the strength and potential to take firmer control at the point of attack with more technique work. He can read-and-react as a two-gapper or play on the move with adequate effectiveness. His rush tends to be a little uninspiring, which could push him off the field on passing downs. He won't be 21 until August and should come in as a quality backup early on before working into a starting role in the future.
192:R6P8 RB Chuba Hubbard Oklahoma State Rank 124 draft grade 6.1 Good Backup that could become starter.
What if Zeke gets hurt? Chuba is a good scheme fit for for a zone blocking team.
Overview
Hubbard's 2019 production would tell you he ate, but he had plenty put on his plate with almost 26 carries per game. In 2020, his production dipped as teams seemed to find ways to bottle him up. Hubbard is a tempo-driven runner as an outside-zone back playing peek-a-boo behind his blocks. His willingness to get upfield rather than bounce everything will be applauded, but he needs to use his vision and easy change of direction to become more creative on the second level as a pro. He needs to tighten up his ball security issues, but has the talent to become a committee back with upside for a zone-based rushing attack.
227:R6P43 LB Isaiah McDuffie Boston College Rank 119 draft grade 6.12 Good Backup that could become starter.
They haven't replace Joe thomas and I really like McDuffie at LB. He's a coaches son and has very good instincts.
Strengths
When pick 10 was up Trey Lance was still available and the Steelers offered to switch firsts and send us their second third and fourth round picks. That's 1300 points for our pick and 1289 for theirs so the value is slightly in their favor. My thoughts on having that many picks are there are starter graded players through round three and Jimmy Johnson used a lot of picks to build the team, if a second round pick didn't pan out there were two other day two or three picks that did like Darren Woodson or Leon Lett or even Larry Brown.
The simulator used was Fanspeak Ontheclock with the Draftplex big borad which is the only one I've found that doesn't have round one players ranked 140th or something like that. Lastly, I know for certain that this is not how the real draft will fall and certain I've players picked won't last that long but to be fair until the draft is held nobody including the teams know exactly when players will be picked.
24:R1P24 CB Jaycee Horn South Carolina. Rank 14 draft grade 6.46 Starter within two years
He could become our CB1 that would be an upgrade over Awuzie. He's grabby but so was Diggs and they fixed that with him.
Overview
Three-year starter with tantalizing combination of size and length that is clearly effective when matched in tight man coverage. Horn can line up in any cover scheme and often traveled with the opponent’s most talented target. He plays with desired eye discipline from zone and the talent to impede release from press. He does an above-average job of closing, crowding and eliminating comfortable windows for quarterbacks to throw into, but his route anticipation is average. Horn can play with solid technique, but he became too reliant on the college game’s tendency to allow mauling beyond five yards and that must be cleaned up moving forward. He needs more consistent effort in run support, but the traits and upside are extremely appealing despite a lack of high-end ball production. Horn offers immediate starting help with a high upside.
44:R2P12 S Tre'Von Moehrig TCU Rank 34 draft grade 6.35 Starter within two years
Levi Onwuzurike was gone and we've needed a safety for a long time.
Overview
Very talented height-weight-speed prospect with the range and ball skills to become an impact defender at the next level. Moehrig possesses the overall talent to play in a variety of coverages, including over the slot against big targets, but his talent might be best served as a high safety where his instincts and anticipation lead him to the football. He's a talented ball tracker with soft hands and does a very good job of maintaining balance and positioning to make a play. While he can strike like a pro, he's not always a knock-back tackler and his inconsistent angles to ball-carriers present a bit of a concern as a last line of defense. His 2019 tape was a little better than 2020, but he has the talent and traits to become a good starter early in his career.
55:R2P23 LB Nick Bolton Missouri Rank 37 draft grade 6.33 Starter within two years
Shorter than they like and didn't have the best pro day but his instincts are very good
Overview
When you think about strong, forceful inside linebackers, Bolton is the type of player you might be envisioning. He's going to fall below typical NFL starter standards from a size standpoint, but his rugged frame and forceful demeanor help make up for it. Play recognition and pursuit instincts help carry him to the football and he's a message-sending striker when he gets the runner squared up. He has functional short-area burst between the tackles but will struggle to run down the outside run if he's not close enough to the action. He will need to lean heavier on his instincts to help speed him up because of size and speed limitations. Bolton plays with good field recognition when dropping into zone and has a history of making plays on the football in coverage. He's a three-down linebacker who can make an immediate contribution on special teams and has the potential to become a future starter.
75:R3P11 WR Elijah Moore Ole Miss Rank 25 draft grade 6.41 Starter within two years
This is a pure value pick. Add to strength and there's no telling how they'll handle the salary cap when Gallup's rookie contract is up and Dak's cap hit goes up. It reminds me of something the Chiefs would do.
Overview
Ultra-competitive slot target with the talent and mindset to handle a heavy amount of targets and shine in the process. He's not very big, but he's stronger than his measurables might suggest and he's shown a fearlessness to make the catch despite impending punishment. Moore has the short-area quickness to snap off crisp routes underneath for separation and the play speed to challenge over the top as well as work the deep middle. He has soft, sure hands and above-average ball skills with a great feel for spatial awareness to hit the sweet spots when working against zone. While longer, more physical cornerbacks could slow him a little bit in the NFL, his athletic profile and playing demeanor should lead evaluators to believe he will be a very good pro early in his career.
87:R3P11 C Quinn Meinerz Wisconsin -Whitewater Rank 41 draft grade 6.31 Starter within two years
Another value pick. Add to strength, our offense is best when the offensive line is good. He can play guard or center very well.
Overview
The darling of this year's Senior Bowl, Meinerz has broken through and onto NFL draft boards despite moving up from Division III and having no 2020 tape. He flashed at times in 2019, but his tape was nothing like what we saw against upgraded competition across from him at the Senior Bowl. His hands have improved greatly and his movement appears to be much more efficient and powerful. The step up to NFL competition will require an adjustment period as a full-time move to center likely awaits him. He has the ability to move and finish drive blocks and his pass protection is clearly improving. He has the strength and demeanor to become an impactful starter in the near future.
99:R3P35 Edge Payton Turner Houston Rank 57 draft grade 6.27 Good Backup that could become starter.
They've met with him and you can't have enough pass rushers.
Overview
Three-year starter who has shown a continued level of positional growth that requires the attention of NFL evaluators. Turner is a big, long 4-3 defense end with natural play strength and a surprising level of bend and agility for his size. His technique and footwork are a little spotty, though. He plays with a narrow base and tall pad level, which will always be something he has to work around. He's growing into his frame and his talent. The tape shows a player who is beginning to understand his own strength and athletic potential. His pass rush plan is limited, but he has a go-to move that opens the door to quarterbacks. Once he gets an advantage, he is an absolute menace to recover against for blockers. His size and play traits will have both odd- and even-front defenses interested in him as a talented three-down starter who is still on the way up.
109:R4P4 DL Milton Williams Louisiana Tech Rank 67 draft grade 6.25 Good Backup that could become starter.
High interest in him by the cowboys and I think they're targeting him.
Overview
Pound for pound, Williams can match his toughness and strength with many of the interior defenders in this draft. Determining his best positional fit will be up to the team that drafts him, but he's a good football player who understands leverage and knows how to use his hands. He'll have some bumpy snaps from time to time due to a lack of length and overall mass, but it shouldn't be debilitating for his NFL career. Williams possesses twitchy power and short-area athleticism, but needs to continue the development of working the hands and feet as one to unlock his potential. His pass rush is relatively pedestrian at this time and will need to be upgraded to become more than just a good backup. Teams will weigh the tape and testing against subpar physical traits, but the end result could land him in the middle rounds as an upside talent.
128:R4P23 OT Jaylon Moore Western Michigan Rank 93 draft grade 6.19 Good Backup that could become starter.
A good guard tackle option with good footwork. He's not Slater or Sewell but this is day three and he should make the team and would be an upgrade.
Overview
Athletic tackle/guard prospect who is at his best when he's allowed to play on the move and utilize his athletic ability to create angle advantages in space. He's fluid and consistent on play-side climb-ups to seal the linebacker and has the potential to help create back-side tracks for one-cut runners. He has huge hands and adequate length but needs to win early with those hands or he can be overtaken by stronger defenders. If Moore can eliminate his leaning, he has the technique and traits to be competitive as a blocker. He might need to prove he can offer tackle/guard roster flexibility in order to garner and maintain a backup role.
138:R4P33 Edge Chris Rumph II Duke Rank 42 draft grade 6.31 Starter within two years
This has to be a glitch with the drafplex big board but if he was there I'd take him. He needs to get stronger but he has the skillset and was highly proudctive.
Strengths
- Unwilling to give in or give up as a pass rusher.
- Long strides gain ground quickly to the top of the rush.
- Submarines under outside hand and flattens to the quarterback.
- Lateral quickness creates havoc on twists and inside counters.
- Oily in upper and lower body for explosive flips past blockers.
- Secondary motor and scramble range lead to sacks.
- Challenges blocks with inside hands.
- Punch lands with full extension to stay clean.
- Wiggly working into gaps as penetrator.
- Burst to walk down wide-flowing run plays.
- Father is a long-time football coach.
179:R5P35 DL Bobby Brown III Texas A&M Rank 111 draft grade 6.14 Good Backup that could become starter.
Good value at DT and could play 1T or 3T.
Overview
Interior defender with the size and pad level to handle reps at nose or three-technique in an even front. Brown shed weight in 2020 and played at a fairly high level inside an SEC-only schedule. His footwork and body control are inconsistent, leading to clear wins and clear losses, but he has the strength and potential to take firmer control at the point of attack with more technique work. He can read-and-react as a two-gapper or play on the move with adequate effectiveness. His rush tends to be a little uninspiring, which could push him off the field on passing downs. He won't be 21 until August and should come in as a quality backup early on before working into a starting role in the future.
192:R6P8 RB Chuba Hubbard Oklahoma State Rank 124 draft grade 6.1 Good Backup that could become starter.
What if Zeke gets hurt? Chuba is a good scheme fit for for a zone blocking team.
Overview
Hubbard's 2019 production would tell you he ate, but he had plenty put on his plate with almost 26 carries per game. In 2020, his production dipped as teams seemed to find ways to bottle him up. Hubbard is a tempo-driven runner as an outside-zone back playing peek-a-boo behind his blocks. His willingness to get upfield rather than bounce everything will be applauded, but he needs to use his vision and easy change of direction to become more creative on the second level as a pro. He needs to tighten up his ball security issues, but has the talent to become a committee back with upside for a zone-based rushing attack.
227:R6P43 LB Isaiah McDuffie Boston College Rank 119 draft grade 6.12 Good Backup that could become starter.
They haven't replace Joe thomas and I really like McDuffie at LB. He's a coaches son and has very good instincts.
Strengths
- Coach's son with outstanding work ethic on and off the field.
- Toughness and intensity are trademarks.
- Relentless chase-and-tackle energy.
- Recognizes formations and tendencies from formations.
- Beats running back to the run lane in some cases.
- Rapid downhill trigger to attack ball-carrier or pass-catcher.
- Pursues with leverage but has burst to find his prey.
- Agility and GPS to work around interior traffic.
- Upper-body power to fling guards off of him.
- Little wasted motion to plant and drive down on the throw.
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