Injury or Character Risk

Blitzen

Blitzen

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Whatever the cutoff should be for risking picks on injured players, the Cowboys have failed on an epic scale over the past 15 years when picking players with high initial grades before injury concerns.

Back in 2016, I desperately wanted the Cowboys to pick a DT in a very deep pool of players. I was actually hoping Kenny Clark would fall to the second round pick, but would have happily taken Jarran Reed since he was still available. I would also have taken Myles Jack over Jaylon there simply due to availability that season.

This idea that our doctor staff was able to build confidence within the draft room should never be overlooked. Whatever was said was obviously wrong or overstated. Jerry being the owner/GM says he can take chances like that because of his unique position (like it is to the Cowboys' advantage).

In particular, the Cowboys use the second round as a throw away dart instead of looking for 3 immediate full time and DEPENDABLE starters. Just pick safe for 3 rounds is my vote. If they have character or injury risk, then they get to wait till the 4th round before the risk is worthwhile. Yes there are variable risk levels. If a player has multiple similar injuries or procedures to their knee, spine, neck, or foot this applies. If they have significant (over 5% chance) cardiovascular, brain, or life threatening disease states this applies to them. Character issues are more difficult to diagnose, but if repeated behavior could jeopardize their career then I would say it applies.

How about you guys? What round is the start of "worth the risk" for the risks I'm stating?
 
I think most guys are worth the risk a round down from where they are projected but some more so than others. One guy I would love to see us add is Dickerson in the 2nd round, dudes a beast in the middle and could probably play left guard no problem if Biadasz is good enough for center.
 
Blitzen said:
Whatever the cutoff should be for risking picks on injured players, the Cowboys have failed on an epic scale over the past 15 years when picking players with high initial grades before injury concerns.

Back in 2016, I desperately wanted the Cowboys to pick a DT in a very deep pool of players. I was actually hoping Kenny Clark would fall to the second round pick, but would have happily taken Jarran Reed since he was still available. I would also have taken Myles Jack over Jaylon there simply due to availability that season.

This idea that our doctor staff was able to build confidence within the draft room should never be overlooked. Whatever was said was obviously wrong or overstated. Jerry being the owner/GM says he can take chances like that because of his unique position (like it is to the Cowboys' advantage).

In particular, the Cowboys use the second round as a throw away dart instead of looking for 3 immediate full time and DEPENDABLE starters. Just pick safe for 3 rounds is my vote. If they have character or injury risk, then they get to wait till the 4th round before the risk is worthwhile. Yes there are variable risk levels. If a player has multiple similar injuries or procedures to their knee, spine, neck, or foot this applies. If they have significant (over 5% chance) cardiovascular, brain, or life threatening disease states this applies to them. Character issues are more difficult to diagnose, but if repeated behavior could jeopardize their career then I would say it applies.

How about you guys? What round is the start of "worth the risk" for the risks I'm stating?
Click to expand...
5th round and below, nothing higher
 
I don't get the point here. Jaylon's health hasn't been an issue.

With your blanket approach, you miss on Sean Lee...not to mention Randy Moss.
 
Future said:
I don't get the point here. Jaylon's health hasn't been an issue.

With your blanket approach, you miss on Sean Lee...not to mention Randy Moss.
Click to expand...

Though the Cowboys passed on Moss because the Cowboys' image was damaged by prior player's off the field problems, and they didn't want to take the risk of yet another "bad egg" player. I suspect if not for those prior issues Dallas would have taken Moss...
 
LACowboysFan1 said:
Though the Cowboys passed on Moss because the Cowboys' image was damaged by prior player's off the field problems, and they didn't want to take the risk of yet another "bad egg" player. I suspect if not for those prior issues Dallas would have taken Moss...
Click to expand...
Probably, but the point is that blanket statements of "Don't take an injured/character concern player before the 4th round" means you're closing the door on HoF calibre talent.
 
I feel like majority of players in the NFL are injury guys. Really in all major competitive sports.
Obviously the statement is knowing that they already have a history of injuries. It depends what the
the injury is I guess. Take Jaylon Smith, that was a fluke injury, not likely to happen again.

Off field issues I could not care less. Sometimes the more risky the better intensity and better football player.
Obviously the last cowboys dynasty was built on party animals.
 
Future said:
I don't get the point here. Jaylon's health hasn't been an issue.

With your blanket approach, you miss on Sean Lee...not to mention Randy Moss.
Click to expand...

Jaylon's injury was an issue the first season, and I see a player that has major issues sticking his foot in the ground and cutting hard left or right. If he is going straight forward or backwards then his injury does not seem to affect his play.

Sean Lee played well when he was available. Which was not enough to pick in the second round. There are varying degrees of the risk. Yes you would miss on some people. I put in some factors that would make it an issue for me. Repeated injury and severity of injury are part of where I would draw the line.

I'm guessing that someone could and likely has put together statistical models and analytics for what type of injury it is and what chance it will have to affect availability for playing football in the NFL.

Jaylon Smith and Sean Lee are not examples of successful picks to me (at least not in the context of second round picks). Before talent can be factored in, availability should be weighted (and more heavily in the earlier rounds-at least for me).
 
I liked our first two picks last year, do that again this year.
 
Croomraider said:
I feel like majority of players in the NFL are injury guys. Really in all major competitive sports.
Obviously the statement is knowing that they already have a history of injuries. It depends what the
the injury is I guess. Take Jaylon Smith, that was a fluke injury, not likely to happen again.

Off field issues I could not care less. Sometimes the more risky the better intensity and better football player.
Obviously the last cowboys dynasty was built on party animals.
Click to expand...
You don't see how some players have worse injury issues than others?
 
caleb farley. Don't walk away run away from this player he's one play from being injured. A player with all the potenial hope eagles get him i'll laugh at them or even the bronco's if a player can't stay healthy what good is he, and he screams M Claiborne another player with promise but look what happsened
 
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