The most reliable predictor of a Super Bowl team

[Bobhaze]

Want to find the most consistent way to measure who is actually likely to go to the next SB? It’s simple- ANNUAL POINT DIFFERENTIAL.

The last 5 seasons, the teams in the top 1-6 of point differential are the ones consistently making the super bowl. In fact, 2015 was the last year a team not in the top six of PD won the SB, and it was that great Denver defense that won it that year.

So far, 5 games into the 2021 season, here are the top 5 teams in point differential:

1. Bills +108
2. Cardinals +62
3. Cowboys +53
4. Buccaneers +51
5. Browns +28

If we can stay in that top 5-6, history puts us in a great spot. Here’s the evidence of the importance of point differential from the las 5 seasons:
2020 SEASON

1. Ravens +165
2. Saints +145
3. Pack +140
4. Bucs +137 (SB CHAMPS)
5. Bills +126
6. Chiefs +111 (AFC champs)

2019 SEASON

1. Ravens +249
2. Pats +195
3. Niners +169 (NFC Champs)
4. Chiefs +143 (SB CHAMP)
5. Saints +117

2018 SEASON

1. Saints +151
2. Rams +143 (NFC Champs)
3. Chiefs +144
4. Bears +138
5. Pats +111 (SB CHAMPS)

2017 SEASON

1. Eagles +162 (SB CHAMPS)
2. Pats +162 (AFC champs)
3. Jaguars +149
4. Rams +148
5. Vikings +130

2016 SEASON

1. Pats +191 (SB CHAMPS)
2. Falcons +134 (NFC Champs)
3. Cowboys +115
4. Chiefs +78
5. Steelers +72

So keep an eye on the point differential numbers. It’s an incredibly reliable stat to know if your team is a true SB contender or not.

 

[Whirlwin]

I find it to be very interesting. Especially because teams go to the Super Bowl. Or make the playoffs. And then two years later they don’t make the playoffs. It’s a new cycle. Look at the Chiefs they’re on their way Backwards right now. That doesn’t mean they’ll stay there. Just like San Fran gone and may be back again. So again I find that statistic very interesting. But right now the bills are the best team in the league. Been seeing it for a while. So

 

[CouchCoach]

Bullet, you continue to mystify and inform me with threads like this. But don't let that go to your head, the Thermos still mystifies me. Hot, cold, doesn't matter, it knows.

 

[Hagman]

So if you score a lot of points while keeping your opponents from scoring a lot of points, good things happen.
I thought that it was individual stats and player ratings by media organizations.
I shall give this crazy new theory of yours some thought.

 

[Whirlwin]

So if you score a lot of points while keeping your opponents from scoring a lot of points, good things happen.
I thought that it was individual stats and player ratings by media organizations.
I shall give this crazy new theory of yours some thought.

Simple isn’t it

 

[Ranching]

Bullet, you continue to mystify and inform me with threads like this. But don't let that go to your head, the Thermos still mystifies me. Hot ,cold, doesn't matter, it knows.

I just wish he would cut down on the novels.....my attention span only lasts about 3 sentences...

 

[Whirlwin]

I just wish he would cut down on the novels.....my attention span only lasts about 3 sentences...

You have to love, honesty lol

 

[Ranching]

You have to love, honesty lol

The geeks and their dissertations! Lol

 

[Bobhaze]

Bullet, you continue to mystify and inform me with threads like this. But don't let that go to your head, the Thermos still mystifies me. Hot, cold, doesn't matter, it knows.

The thermos…man’s most intriguing invention…keeps things cold; keep things hot. How does it know the difference?

 

[ShortRound]

Want to find the most consistent way to measure who is actually likely to go to the next SB? It’s simple- ANNUAL POINT DIFFERENTIAL.

The last 5 seasons, the teams in the top 1-6 of point differential are the ones consistently making the super bowl. In fact, 2015 was the last year a team not in the top six of PD won the SB, and it was that great Denver defense that won it that year.

So far, 5 games into the 2021 season, here are the top 5 teams in point differential:

1. Bills +108
2. Cardinals +62
3. Cowboys +53
4. Buccaneers +51
5. Browns +28

If we can stay in that top 5-6, history puts us in a great spot. Here’s the evidence of the importance of point differential from the las 5 seasons:
2020 SEASON

1. Ravens +165
2. Saints +145
3. Pack +140
4. Bucs +137 (SB CHAMPS)
5. Bills +126
6. Chiefs +111 (AFC champs)

2019 SEASON

1. Ravens +249
2. Pats +195
3. Niners +169 (NFC Champs)
4. Chiefs +143 (SB CHAMP)
5. Saints +117

2018 SEASON

1. Saints +151
2. Rams +143 (NFC Champs)
3. Chiefs +144
4. Bears +138
5. Pats +111 (SB CHAMPS)

2017 SEASON

1. Eagles +162 (SB CHAMPS)
2. Pats +162 (AFC champs)
3. Jaguars +149
4. Rams +148
5. Vikings +130

2016 SEASON

1. Pats +191 (SB CHAMPS)
2. Falcons +134 (NFC Champs)
3. Cowboys +115
4. Chiefs +78
5. Steelers +72

So keep an eye on the point differential numbers. It’s an incredibly reliable stat to know if your team is a true SB contender or not.

Always educating me. TY.

 

[Ranching]

The thermos…man’s most intriguing invention…keeps things cold; keep things hot. How does it know the difference?

Hmmmm? I'll have to drink on that one....

 

[Whirlwin]

Hmmmm? I'll have to drink on that one....

It’s just non-biased.

 

[Stash]

Want to find the most consistent way to measure who is actually likely to go to the next SB? It’s simple- ANNUAL POINT DIFFERENTIAL.

The last 5 seasons, the teams in the top 1-6 of point differential are the ones consistently making the super bowl. In fact, 2015 was the last year a team not in the top six of PD won the SB, and it was that great Denver defense that won it that year.

So far, 5 games into the 2021 season, here are the top 5 teams in point differential:

1. Bills +108
2. Cardinals +62
3. Cowboys +53
4. Buccaneers +51
5. Browns +28

If we can stay in that top 5-6, history puts us in a great spot. Here’s the evidence of the importance of point differential from the las 5 seasons:
2020 SEASON

1. Ravens +165
2. Saints +145
3. Pack +140
4. Bucs +137 (SB CHAMPS)
5. Bills +126
6. Chiefs +111 (AFC champs)

2019 SEASON

1. Ravens +249
2. Pats +195
3. Niners +169 (NFC Champs)
4. Chiefs +143 (SB CHAMP)
5. Saints +117

2018 SEASON

1. Saints +151
2. Rams +143 (NFC Champs)
3. Chiefs +144
4. Bears +138
5. Pats +111 (SB CHAMPS)

2017 SEASON

1. Eagles +162 (SB CHAMPS)
2. Pats +162 (AFC champs)
3. Jaguars +149
4. Rams +148
5. Vikings +130

2016 SEASON

1. Pats +191 (SB CHAMPS)
2. Falcons +134 (NFC Champs)
3. Cowboys +115
4. Chiefs +78
5. Steelers +72

So keep an eye on the point differential numbers. It’s an incredibly reliable stat to know if your team is a true SB contender or not.

Great stuff as always.


I so appreciate your work.

 

[MarcusRock]

I just wish he would cut down on the novels.....my attention span only lasts about 3 sentences...

Bro, do you realize whose post you replied to? Actually, maybe you did given the subject, lol.

 

[Ranching]

Bro, do you realize whose post you replied to? Actually, maybe you did given the subject, lol.

Lol...these long winded posts are getting a bit boring.....

 

[DandyDon52]

that shows the contenders, but always 3 that are not conf champs or in SB
Dallas was in the top 5 in 16 too.
That has to continue in the playoffs to reach champ game and SB.

A big part of why Dallas is in top 5 is the new defense, the offense gets most of the credit, but the biggest change from last season
is the defense. kudo's to Quinn.

 

[RustyBourneHorse]

I find it to be very interesting. Especially because teams go to the Super Bowl. Or make the playoffs. And then two years later they don’t make the playoffs. It’s a new cycle. Look at the Chiefs they’re on their way Backwards right now. That doesn’t mean they’ll stay there. Just like San Fran gone and may be back again. So again I find that statistic very interesting. But right now the bills are the best team in the league. Been seeing it for a while. So

Would be fun to play them in the SB.

 

[Whirlwin]

Would be fun to play them in the SB.

Bills Cowboys. Very intriguing yes. I would have to give the edge of the bills right now

 

[RustyBourneHorse]

Bills Cowboys. Very intriguing yes. I would have to give the edge of the bills right now

And the SB is in LA, which makes it fitting.

 

[Whirlwin]

Bro, do you realize whose post you replied to? Actually, maybe you did given the subject, lol.

I think they both get along just fine. Most of it was just sarcasm