Cowboys’ “flawed” draft thought process

[xwalker]

I have been sitting thinking about how to quantify my thoughts on consistent error in how the Cowboys approach the draft. Here’s a consistent theme in where I think the Cowboys are doing a disservice.

Let’s say that this draft is deep in edge rushers (this one is supposed to be) and it is anticipated that some think that you might be able to get a good one in the third or maybe even the fourth round. The Cowboys take that literally and say we are pretty sure that we can get one in the first four rounds.

What do we know about hood edge rushers? They tend to ho early, but I digress. Lol

At pick #24 BPA is an edge rusher and he’s a tier higher than any other edge rusher on the Cowboys draft board. In fact they are surprised he is there. But the Cowboys NEED a player at “X” position. Let’s call that player a “Taco” at Center. He is a couple of tiers lower than BPA but hey if we don’t get one we won’t find one, so they reach for need and take Taco Center. (Net result : sub par player with high bust potential).

In round #2 they see that there has been a run on OTs so they say if we don’t get one here, then there won’t be one here, even though BPA is an edge rusher.

In round #3 they have targeted a tight end to replace Schultz there, and they “think they can get an edge rusher in RD 4” so they take the tight end.

In round 4 it becomes clear, early on that there is a run on edge rushers and they will be long gone by the Cowboys pick. So in the end, in a deep class of edge rushers (high dollar position) the Cowboys don’t get one.

Draft haul mediocre players who don’t change the landscape. Hindsight on draft class Cowboys pass on three top 20 edge rushers in a stout edge rusher class.

This happens every year.

That is not really how they draft.

CZ posts make it feel like that is what happens but in reality it's not.

Taco and Watt were the same position. The fail was the player not the position.

LB was not in their top 2 preferred positions last year.

WR was not their top preferred position in 2020.

In 2018 they really really wanted a WR but didn't draft one until the 3rd round.

 

[CouchCoach]

How can such a great drafting team have a flawed thought process?

If this is true, then maybe they're not a great drafting team?

And how does one go about assessing what a great drafting team is? Is that players that make the cut? Players still on the teams the end of their first contract? Number of plays per drafted player? Number of starters?

How exactly are the Cowboys a great drafting team? This puzzles me just like those most talented team observations because that caused me to consider I might not be watching the same games and teams.

Is there anything more useless than draft grades post draft? How in the hell does anyone know? We do not even know about the 2021 draft class, except for one player, a full year later.

 

[Verdict]

Parsons was indeed BPA when the Cowboys drafted. But if you take what the team said was true as truth, they were going to draft a CB before Parsons. Let that marinate and sink in a little bit.

Then the Cowboys doubled down on that by reaching for Joseph in the second. No one will ever convince me that the Cowboys had Joseph as BPA.

The Cowboys then reached for other players in the 3rd. It makes you wonder what in Sam Hill were they thinking.

Arguably only Parsons and Cox were BPA players that were drafted when the Cowboys selected last year.

I fully realize the Cowboys sometimes go BPA. (Zack Martin). But too many times they try to fill too many holes and end up missing on picks.

Would you rather have Creed Humphrey or BossManFatTheRapper?

 

[Verdict]

That is not really how they draft.

CZ posts make it feel like that is what happens but in reality it's not.

Taco and Watt were the same position. The fail was the player not the position.

LB was not in their top 2 preferred positions last year.

WR was not their top preferred position in 2020.

In 2018 they really really wanted a WR but didn't draft one until the 3rd round.

Your analysis is correct on Taco vs Watt. We chose the wrong player. But the truth is we forced that pick as neither was probably BPA when we picked. Whether they were rated in that range or not is not really on point with what I am saying.

 

[cnuball21]

He was a reach. He could not have been BPA by a long shot.

Easy to say now with hindsight…if he would’ve lived up to his draft potential he would’ve been a good pick.

Who was BPA outside of Watt who had injury concerns?

 

[kskboys]

Most glaring failure to draft BPA that I can remember is Hill instead of Thornhill. Safety was a hug need, to boot.

Hill was simply a stupid pick. There was no strategy involved aside from terrible player evaluation.

 

[kskboys]

He was a reach. He could not have been BPA by a long shot.

Taco was BPA.

Any standalone draft strategy is slated for failure. There is way too much that goes into analyzing who to pick to just declare one silly strategy the way to go. Need, scheme, motor, instincts, there's simply way too much involved.

 

[BAT]

On some of the Cowboys picks I agree with that premise and we could probably be a better team if the they at least followed BPA on day 1 and 2.

Last year Parsons was easily the BPA After that the only BPA was Cox.

The year before Lamb and Diggs were easily the BPA

It's interesting that when Jerry mentioned the draft Lamb and Parsons were reasons we might not take offensive line in round 1.

Odiggy was also BPA.

 

[BAT]

Taco was BPA.

Any standalone draft strategy is slated for failure. There is way too much that goes into analyzing who to pick to just declare one silly strategy the way to go. Need, scheme, motor, instincts, there's simply way too much involved.

Taco was not BPA on my board.

Cowboys reached to fill the STRONGSIDE DE spot due to injury + financial concerns for DLaw.

 

[morasp]

Odiggy was also BPA.

Not on mine but he probably was on someones.

 

[xwalker]

Your analysis is correct on Taco vs Watt. We chose the wrong player. But the truth is we forced that pick as neither was probably BPA when we picked. Whether they were rated in that range or not is not really on point with what I am saying.

Watt is the player that most Cowboys fans wanted. He definitely would have been top 3 for BPA.

Taco started out rated as a top 10 pick by the draft media prior to the combine.

The Cowboys had 3 players on the same tier for that pick. They also had 1 player a tier above those 3, but it was a RB (Dalvin Cook). They had just drafted Zeke the year before.

Two of the players were Taco and Watt. The 3rd player was a DB.

I advocated trading down, then drafting Dalvin Cook in the 2nd. In retrospect it would have been better than drafting Taco.
- They would not have given Zeke the big contract.

The Cowboys have had some fails, but not for the reasons that you're posting.

 

[kskboys]

Taco was not BPA on my board.

Cowboys reached to fill the STRONGSIDE DE spot due to injury + financial concerns for DLaw.

Wasn't a reach. It was a bad evaluation.

 

[BAT]

Wasn't a reach. It was a bad evaluation.

It was both.

One led to the other.