Will Dallas Trade Down?

Sandyf

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By this time next week we will know what happened in the 1st round of the draft and if Dallas stood pat, traded up and traded down. There are questions surrounding all those choices and until the draft it is speculation of what they might do. Much really depends on what happens before then and also on what Dallas does in relations to their 10/11 commandments of the draft.

If we are expecting a RB or S or QB or TE in the first two days of the draft this year, then you probably should think again. The same could be said about CB even with the Joseph situation. Shouldn't look any further than the reported 30 visits, the Dallas Day visitors, the combine visits and a few of the campus workouts on who they might draft or at least consider. Based on the actual 30 visits, you should surmise a number of important UDFAs after the last selection on Saturday.

Will they trade down? That writing was on the wall when McClay said they were greater than 220 draftable players this year. We have 9 picks and increasing that number in especially the 2nd and 3rd rounds seems a bit inevitable.

Dallas normally in the 1st tries to select a guy at a position where he is the top player on THEIR board. Other teams and analysts may disagree and likely will although Dallas carries more about their board than what anyone else sees in that pick. Likely the guy will be from a Power 5 or Group of 5 team which seems to be more of a McClay type thing. Not to say we will not take a guy from a small school but usually not until the 5th/6th/7th or UDFA range.

For me, the top guys that could be guys at 24 would be Jordan Davis DT who probably is the top DT on the Dallas board or London/Olave WR or Johnson OG or Johnson DE or Raimann OT. We could easily see 7 WR go prior to #24 and 6 DEs along with 4 CBs and 4/5 OTs.

I do think this is going to be an offense draft with at least 6 guys on offense. Saying that if Davis at DT is available then he probably is the pick. A huge factor in all of this will be the QBs, how many go before #24, who wants to pay to come up and get a guy around #24 and who is after Dallas as I suspect that Green Bay, Cincinnati and Kansas City will all trade up to pick a guy above #24.

Believe we could see Dallas trade down twice in the 1st and still end up with at least #32 while getting a couple of 3rd rounds picks in return. Everyone likes to use the trade value chart which is good but in no way the end all as certain positions always bring higher value along with the fact getting that 5th year option. It all depends on who is available and who is trying to get their guy.

Just see Dallas ending up taking probably a Davis or Johnson late 1st round and just maybe getting both if things fall right. Everyone says Davis is going higher and maybe so but traditionally DT fall to late 1st early 2nd round and the same goes for OG. Now OT is different and it remains to be seen how highly Dallas rates Raimann. He is a bit of an outlier in that he is probably the most athletic OT in the draft but very raw but has the highest ceiling and highest floor. He is a Group of 5 guy but could also easily go in the 2nd round as most all teams want a 1st round guy to start right away and Raimann is probably at least a year away although he has always been back those who doubt him.

Could Dallas actually pull off something that takes care of the OL and DL right away and possibly get Tyron Smith replacement by the end of round two. It would be a miracle especially seeing what Dallas has done this off season but just maybe we will luck out because we sure need some luck.
 
Better than trading UP in this draft IMO.

But in general your chances decrease severely of landing a real player the later you go, no matter what narrative they may be selling about their mid round prowess.
 
By this time next week we will know what happened in the 1st round of the draft and if Dallas stood pat, traded up and traded down. There are questions surrounding all those choices and until the draft it is speculation of what they might do. Much really depends on what happens before then and also on what Dallas does in relations to their 10/11 commandments of the draft.

If we are expecting a RB or S or QB or TE in the first two days of the draft this year, then you probably should think again. The same could be said about CB even with the Joseph situation. Shouldn't look any further than the reported 30 visits, the Dallas Day visitors, the combine visits and a few of the campus workouts on who they might draft or at least consider. Based on the actual 30 visits, you should surmise a number of important UDFAs after the last selection on Saturday.

Will they trade down? That writing was on the wall when McClay said they were greater than 220 draftable players this year. We have 9 picks and increasing that number in especially the 2nd and 3rd rounds seems a bit inevitable.

Dallas normally in the 1st tries to select a guy at a position where he is the top player on THEIR board. Other teams and analysts may disagree and likely will although Dallas carries more about their board than what anyone else sees in that pick. Likely the guy will be from a Power 5 or Group of 5 team which seems to be more of a McClay type thing. Not to say we will not take a guy from a small school but usually not until the 5th/6th/7th or UDFA range.

For me, the top guys that could be guys at 24 would be Jordan Davis DT who probably is the top DT on the Dallas board or London/Olave WR or Johnson OG or Johnson DE or Raimann OT. We could easily see 7 WR go prior to #24 and 6 DEs along with 4 CBs and 4/5 OTs.

I do think this is going to be an offense draft with at least 6 guys on offense. Saying that if Davis at DT is available then he probably is the pick. A huge factor in all of this will be the QBs, how many go before #24, who wants to pay to come up and get a guy around #24 and who is after Dallas as I suspect that Green Bay, Cincinnati and Kansas City will all trade up to pick a guy above #24.

Believe we could see Dallas trade down twice in the 1st and still end up with at least #32 while getting a couple of 3rd rounds picks in return. Everyone likes to use the trade value chart which is good but in no way the end all as certain positions always bring higher value along with the fact getting that 5th year option. It all depends on who is available and who is trying to get their guy.

Just see Dallas ending up taking probably a Davis or Johnson late 1st round and just maybe getting both if things fall right. Everyone says Davis is going higher and maybe so but traditionally DT fall to late 1st early 2nd round and the same goes for OG. Now OT is different and it remains to be seen how highly Dallas rates Raimann. He is a bit of an outlier in that he is probably the most athletic OT in the draft but very raw but has the highest ceiling and highest floor. He is a Group of 5 guy but could also easily go in the 2nd round as most all teams want a 1st round guy to start right away and Raimann is probably at least a year away although he has always been back those who doubt him.

Could Dallas actually pull off something that takes care of the OL and DL right away and possibly get Tyron Smith replacement by the end of round two. It would be a miracle especially seeing what Dallas has done this off season but just maybe we will luck out because we sure need some luck.
Trade down, draft OL then trade up in the 2nd and draft Travis Jones.
 
Believe we could see Dallas trade down twice in the 1st and still end up with at least #32 while getting a couple of 3rd rounds picks in return. Everyone likes to use the trade value chart which is good but in no way the end all as certain positions always bring higher value along with the fact getting that 5th year option. It all depends on who is available and who is trying to get their guy.
Everyone likes to use the trade value chart because NFL teams actually use it. Once you get outside the top 5 picks or so, virtually every trade made in the draft matches the chart pretty closely, albeit with the team trading up usually paying a bit of a premium.

That said, I agree with you that the Cowboys could very well trade down but not out of the 1st round: they like that 5th-year option.

Looking at last year's trades (and applying the middle-of-the-next-round discount for future picks:
Dolphins-Eagles: pretty much dead even by the chart
Cowboys-Eagles: Eagles paid a 70-point premium to move up (5%)
Bears-Giants: Bears paid around a 60-point premium to move up (5%)
Jets-Vikings: Jets paid a 45-point premium to move up (4%)

There weren't any trades from the 2nd to the 1st, which would give us some idea of the perceived value of the 5th-round option. In previous years, there were a couple
2020 Chargers-Patriots (Patriots give 37-71 for 23): pretty much dead even by the chart, Pats paid 5 points.
2019 Giants-Seahawks (Hawks give 37-132-143 for 30): The Seahawks underpaid by 15 points by the chart.
Well, so much for the 5th-year option changing teams' calculations. Weird.
 
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Yes!

Trade down!

I'm glad they understand how deep this draft is.
 
If Davis or Penning are there I’m not trading down otherwise would love to trade down and still get one of Jones, Johnson or Green
I agree with your thinking. I don’t see Davis getting by the Eagles. Cox is on a one year deal. Hoping the Ravens take him before they get a chance. Penning would be a nice addition to the line.
 
If Davis or Penning are there I’m not trading down otherwise would love to trade down and still get one of Jones, Johnson or Green

This should be plan.

Stay at 24 if Davis available, trade down if not.

Simple.
 
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