Are we really better off at RB than last year?

[Chasing6]

Yeah, but counting on a fifth-rounder and seventh-round to "be heavily involved" is like counting on being able to breath underwater. After all, we haven't exactly counted on the sixth-rounder we drafted just a couple of years ago.

Jordan Mason was undrafted.

If the OLine makes holes they will find them.

 

[Chasing6]

He’s slow.

4.56 40 time

Now go look up Dereck Henry's 40 time.

 

[Pass2Run]

Remember, Rico couldn't get into the end zone.

 

[TexasBacon]

Definitely a huge upgrade. Williams is a good back and Blue is electric. The combination of those two are better than Dowdle, though I agree Dowdle was underutilized and play calling was abysmal last year for the run game. More importantly, Martin was very hurt and not himself last year, so I think with Beebe in his second year, Smith and Booker at Guard, and Guyton in his second year, the OL will be much better in the run game. Perhaps most importantly, we finally have a real WR threat outside of Lamb in Pickens, Schoonmaker came on last year as a passing threat, and Ferg should be healthy. This means teams can't just stack the box against us and dare us to run. I think it's been undersold how much both the passing AND running game needed that additional threat at WR.

If everyone is healthy, playcalling is decent to good, and the OL gels, this team should be right back in the mix if Dak can step up and play up to his contract. If he can't then it's time to go.

 

[gimmesix]

Jordan Mason was undrafted.

If the OLine makes holes they will find them.

Do you know how many running backs go undrafted every year or for that matter how many are taken in the later rounds and fail? Sure, you can find one, but the hit rate is extremely low. For every Bucky Irving, there's 10 other backs taken who flame out.

Our fans consistently expect us to beat the odds on draft picks when evidence says that we don't. We have around a 20 percent hit rate on third-day picks, just like other teams. In the last 10 years, we've drafted four backs from the fifth through seventh rounds (Darius Jackson, Mike Weber, Bo Scarbrough and Deuce Vaughn), none of them have been successful. We did have success with Tony Pollard (a fourth-round pick), but even counting that we're 1 of 5.

In fact, looking back at our all-time drafts, the last successful fifth-seventh RB we had was Herschel Walker in 1985 and that's because Walker wasn't a typical draft pick. You want to bring up exceptions; there are always exceptions to the rule, but the rule is the rule for a reason.

 

[Chasing6]

Do you know how many running backs go undrafted every year or for that matter how many are taken in the later rounds and fail? Sure, you can find one, but the hit rate is extremely low. For every Bucky Irving, there's 10 other backs taken who flame out.

Our fans consistently expect us to beat the odds on draft picks when evidence says that we don't. We have around a 20 percent hit rate on third-day picks, just like other teams. In the last 10 years, we've drafted four backs from the fifth through seventh rounds (Darius Jackson, Mike Weber, Bo Scarbrough and Deuce Vaughn), none of them have been successful. We did have success with Tony Pollard (a fourth-round pick), but even counting that we're 1 of 5.

In fact, looking back at our all-time drafts, the last successful fifth-seventh RB we had was Herschel Walker in 1985 and that's because Walker wasn't a typical draft pick. You want to bring up exceptions; there are always exceptions to the rule, but the rule is the rule for a reason.

Well they all hit in SF that was due to the OLine.
It is hard to suck when you get first contact at 3.5 yards.

 

[Chasing6]

Yeah, but counting on a fifth-rounder and seventh-round to "be heavily involved" is like counting on being able to breath underwater. After all, we haven't exactly counted on the sixth-rounder we drafted just a couple of years ago.

Pretty sure they are counting on the OLine.

 

[gimmesix]

Well they all hit in SF that was due to the OLine.
It is hard to suck when you get first contact at 3.5 yards.

Last year, San Fran drafted Isaac Guerendo in the fourth round. He put up good numbers in a limited role (84-420). Before that, they drafted Tyrion Davis-Price in the third round in 2022. He's had a total of 43 carries. They drafted Trey Sermon in the third round the previous year, and he's had a total of 134 carries. Elijah Mitchell was drafted in the sixth that same year and has had 327 carries. Joe Williams was taken in the fourth round in 2017 and did absolutely nothing. Same with Kelvin Taylor taken in the sixth round in 2016. Counting Jordan James, taken in the fifth round this year, that's their RBs drafted in the last 10 years. (I don't have a list of their UDFAs during that time, but guaranteed there are a lot more misses than hits.)

Not sure what your idea of a hit is, but none of those six backs (not counting James) has averaged more carries in their careers than Guerendo's 84 last year. Is that what you would consider a success for Blue or Mafah?

Guerendo did average 5 yards per carry in his limited role and Mitchell 4.6, so there is that, but Davis-Price averaged 2.9, Sermon averaged 3.7, Williams nothing and Taylor nothing. So at best, the Niners hit on 2 of 6.

 

[MisterWaffles]

It's a running back stable equivalent to opening the fridge looking for something good to eat and only seeing that plastic container of three-day-old leftover fish, a questionable TV dinner, an egg carton with like two eggs left in it and not much else.

 

[speedkilz88]

This seems like a weird take on what I showed, that the veteran backs we picked up weren't as good as their teams' other backs behind the same line. That makes it a back problem, not a line problem. Our Oline being better than last year may have nothing to do with these backs being better. Considering their failures when other backs on the same team were succeeding, 3.7 YPC may just be who they are.

This is nonsense. You can find his runs on youtube. It was his interior line. Emmitt's last year he was outdone by Hambrick in avg. and that was because teams focus was on the starter. You can also look up Arizona's RB James Conner and he also only had 3.7 avg his first year there. The OL got better and he did better in the years after.

 

[mardwin]

When did he get a chance? Specifically which games did McCarthy design and call those plays for him?

He looked slow when he carried the ball and couldn't pass protect on 3rd down.

 

[gimmesix]

This is nonsense. You can find his runs on youtube. It was his interior line. Emmitt's last year he was outdone by Hambrick in avg. and that was because teams focus was on the starter. You can also look up Arizona's RB James Conner and he also only had 3.7 avg his first year there. The OL got better and he did better in the years after.

Connor is certainly what they are hoping for. Until either shows it, though, both Williams and Sanders are the 3.7 YPC backs they've been (at best) the last two years.

 

[Chasing6]

Last year, San Fran drafted Isaac Guerendo in the fourth round. He put up good numbers in a limited role (84-420). Before that, they drafted Tyrion Davis-Price in the third round in 2022. He's had a total of 43 carries. They drafted Trey Sermon in the third round the previous year, and he's had a total of 134 carries. Elijah Mitchell was drafted in the sixth that same year and has had 327 carries. Joe Williams was taken in the fourth round in 2017 and did absolutely nothing. Same with Kelvin Taylor taken in the sixth round in 2016. Counting Jordan James, taken in the fifth round this year, that's their RBs drafted in the last 10 years. (I don't have a list of their UDFAs during that time, but guaranteed there are a lot more misses than hits.)

Not sure what your idea of a hit is, but none of those six backs (not counting James) has averaged more carries in their careers than Guerendo's 84 last year. Is that what you would consider a success for Blue or Mafah?

Guerendo did average 5 yards per carry in his limited role and Mitchell 4.6, so there is that, but Davis-Price averaged 2.9, Sermon averaged 3.7, Williams nothing and Taylor nothing. So at best, the Niners hit on 2 of 6.

It seems convenient that you left out the undrafted Jordan Mason, who no one new who he was, including the team he played on - or did they understand it was the OLine?

When a team has a bell cow like CMC, other RB's do not get very many opportunities, if any at all. Does that mean they were a miss or the coaches missed? Once he got hurt the opportunities came.

Jordan Mason

2022 43 carries 6.0 average
2023 40 carries 5.0 average
2024 153 carries 5.2 average

I guess Jordan was also a miss after 22 and 23 averaging 5.5 ypc, because they extended CMC for 2 years and $38M. I bet the Niners wish they could rewind that decision after last season.

By the way Patrick Taylor who also went undrafted and averaged 4.7 yards per carry on 39 carries.

Even their FB Juszczyk averaged 5.2 ypc.

Guerendo averaged 5.0 on 84 carries.

I am sure you heard of a guy named Terrel Davis before, who was drafted in the 6th round. He was getting zero looks at RB and was about to be cut, before he stood out on 1 special teams play, then finally got an opportunity.

I guess Barry Sanders was not very good either for being the all-time leader in negative carries. Or just maybe it had something to do with the Oline.

 

[gimmesix]

It seems convenient that you left out the undrafted Jordan Mason, who no one new who he was, including the team he played on - or did they understand it was the OLine?

When a team has a bell cow like CMC, other RB's do not get very many opportunities, if any at all. Does that mean they were a miss or the coaches missed? Once he got hurt the opportunities came.

Jordan Mason

2022 43 carries 6.0 average
2023 40 carries 5.0 average
2024 153 carries 5.2 average

I guess Jordan was also a miss after 22 and 23 averaging 5.5 ypc, because they extended CMC for 2 years and $38M. I bet the Niners wish they could rewind that decision after last season.

By the way Patrick Taylor who also went undrafted and averaged 4.7 yards per carry on 39 carries.

Even their FB Juszczyk averaged 5.2 ypc.

Guerendo averaged 5.0 on 84 carries.

I am sure you heard of a guy named Terrel Davis before, who was drafted in the 6th round. He was getting zero looks at RB and was about to be cut, before he stood out on 1 special teams play, then finally got an opportunity.

I guess Barry Sanders was not very good either for being the all-time leader in negative carries. Or just maybe it had something to do with the Oline.

I said that I did not have a list of all of their UDFAs. You pick out one or two but how many did it take for them to find that one or two? Yes, Dallas can luck into a late-round success or even a UDFA success (like they ultimately did with Dowdle), but it's luck. It has been luck for the 49ers, which is what their draft picks show. Bad players do not succeed behind good lines. We hope that we found good players and have a good line, but right now all it is is hope.

We have hope that two players who have averaged under 4 yards per carry the last two years will succeed here. But we have no evidence that says they will. We have hope that a fifth-round pick and seventh-round pick will succeed while most fail, but we have no evidence of that.

You want to turn an argument supported by evidence into an argument based on your faith in this line and in Dallas being the team to find players who can succeed behind it. I just present the evidence, which is not highly in support of that.

 

[gimmesix]

This is nonsense. You can find his runs on youtube. It was his interior line. Emmitt's last year he was outdone by Hambrick in avg. and that was because teams focus was on the starter. You can also look up Arizona's RB James Conner and he also only had 3.7 avg his first year there. The OL got better and he did better in the years after.

BTW, Emmitt was a bad back his last year here. That's why he was outdone by Hambrick. He went to Arizona and showed that he was done. Williams and Sanders could both be done as well because of wear and tear (Sanders) and injury (Williams). We'll find out.

 

[Chasing6]

I said that I did not have a list of all of their UDFAs. You pick out one or two but how many did it take for them to find that one or two? Yes, Dallas can luck into a late-round success or even a UDFA success (like they ultimately did with Dowdle), but it's luck. It has been luck for the 49ers, which is what their draft picks show. Bad players do not succeed behind good lines. We hope that we found good players and have a good line, but right now all it is is hope.

We have hope that two players who have averaged under 4 yards per carry the last two years will succeed here. But we have no evidence that says they will. We have hope that a fifth-round pick and seventh-round pick will succeed while most fail, but we have no evidence of that.

You want to turn an argument supported by evidence into an argument based on your faith in this line and in Dallas being the team to find players who can succeed behind it. I just present the evidence, which is not highly in support of that.

My point is they did not find one. CMC got hurt.

If multiple undrafted RB's and a FB can average 5 yards a carry, it has a lot to do with the OLine.

When RB's don't get touched for first 3.5 yards, it is not difficult to be a good RB.

By having a great OLine, you don't need to over pay RB's and can easily have a RB by Committee.

 

[kskboys]

Do you know how many running backs go undrafted every year or for that matter how many are taken in the later rounds and fail? Sure, you can find one, but the hit rate is extremely low. For every Bucky Irving, there's 10 other backs taken who flame out.

Our fans consistently expect us to beat the odds on draft picks when evidence says that we don't. We have around a 20 percent hit rate on third-day picks, just like other teams. In the last 10 years, we've drafted four backs from the fifth through seventh rounds (Darius Jackson, Mike Weber, Bo Scarbrough and Deuce Vaughn), none of them have been successful. We did have success with Tony Pollard (a fourth-round pick), but even counting that we're 1 of 5.

In fact, looking back at our all-time drafts, the last successful fifth-seventh RB we had was Herschel Walker in 1985 and that's because Walker wasn't a typical draft pick. You want to bring up exceptions; there are always exceptions to the rule, but the rule is the rule for a reason.

More like 50 or 100.