New Playoff Odds - Cowboys 19% chance

VaqueroTD

VaqueroTD

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Here is the updated Playoff probabilities after Thanksgiving games. Cowboys shot up from 9% to 19%, and will continue that rise if they beat Detroit.

4 Division Champs, 3 Wild Cards
Tie-Breaker Order: Head-to-Head record first, then Conference Record
**We have a TIE in our record so unless our tie breaker is with Green Bay or another team that has a TIE this year, if we have same amount of WINS as another team, we win. (example: We are 10-6-1, and Bears are 10-7, technically WE have the better record)
  • The more we win, the better the probability. Still need to win out to have a good shot.
  • NFC East
    • Cowboys went from 2% to 5% on probability to win division.
    • Eagles - It's possible, but would require A LOT of losing by Philly, and A LOT of winning by Dallas.
  • NFC South
    • Hopefully, Tampa Bay and Carolina keep pounding it out and a .500 team represents their Division. That means we don't have to worry about a Wild Card.
  • NFC North
    • Looking like we may just need to give up on that Green Bay draft pick. We will lose a Wild Card tie breaker with Green Bay because they have a much better Conference WIN record and we both Tied in a game this year.
    • We control our fate with Detroit now. If we beat them and continue winning, we kick them out of the Wild Card.
    • Chicago still has to play Green Bay 2x, Detroit, San Fran and Philly. If Chicago finishes last games 3-3, they will be 11-7, and if we win out, we will be 11-6-1.
    • I think our best path to keep the NFC North from having a Wild Card in Playoffs is Chicago tanking and us beating Detroit.
  • NFC West
    • Rams are in drivers seat at 9-2. Probably best if they keep winning. They do play Seattle one more time. Also play Carolina and Detroit which helps us if they win.
    • San Fran (8-4) and Seattle (8-3) are two teams we want to lose an get us in. Very similar situations as Chicago. Hopefully can finish season at .500 and we win out for best chance to get in the Playoffs.
    • There are a lot more NFC North vs NFC North games than NFC West vs NFC West games in remainder of schedule so won't see as much of these guys beating each other up.
OVERALL
  • Pray the Cowboys can keep this Playoff caliber momentum and win out.
  • Pray the Eagles collapse. (NFC East Champ)
  • Pray that Chicago or Green Bay collapse. (Wild Cards)
  • Pray that San Fran or Seattle collapse. (Wild Cards)

nfc_playoffs.jpg
 
I think it was @Reid1boys who mentioned it in the last thread. Analytics don't take into account personnel moves. So our biggest ally right now besides winning out, is the new improved defense with the key trades and injury returns, and this new heart they've found as a team after Marshawn's death. Something special seems to be happening out there and I hope it continues.
 
Eagles are playing the Commanders twice and Raiders once, and those guys are competing in the Tank Championship.
Just let it go. The Eagles are winning the division.
Cheer for the Eagles to beat the Bears. That's all they can really do for us.
 
Man that Cardinals game will HAUNT this team if they just miss the Playoffs. At home against an inferior team with a back up QB. Just no excuse to let that one happen. I feel like that loss will be the boogeyman. If we were at 7-4-1 right now we might have more wiggle room but it is what it is.
 
SlingBoy said:
Man that Cardinals game will HAUNT this team if they just miss the Playoffs. At home against an inferior team with a back up QB. Just no excuse to let that one happen. I feel like that loss will be the boogeyman. If we were at 7-4-1 right now we might have more wiggle room but it is what it is.
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When is the last time the Cowboys beat the Cardinals? They ruin our seasons all the time.
 
erod said:
When is the last time the Cowboys beat the Cardinals? They ruin our seasons all the time.
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Freaking Arizona. It started with that Playoff loss to Jake Plummer and the Cards when our offense looked horrible. Never been the same since. Just like my NBA team too, the Spurs. Suns seem to have their number too.
 
VaqueroTD said:
I think it was @Reid1boys who mentioned it in the last thread. Analytics don't take into account personnel moves. So our biggest ally right now besides winning out, is the new improved defense with the key trades and injury returns, and this new heart they've found as a team after Marshawn's death. Something special seems to be happening out there and I hope it continues.
Click to expand...
yep..... the numbers dont know who is now on our dline..... the computer just knows our previous losses and scores. I like our chances, because if we can somehow get the win against detroit, I could see us winning out. So many of us kept saying, man if our defense could just be avg.... well, here we are and look what is happening.
 
My thought are this:

The only game remaining that we could afford to lose and still have a good shot at the playoffs is the Chargers. Lose ANY other game and, well, it would still be possible; but we would need a complete collapse from at least one other team.

The Lions game will be HUGE. Win that game and the playoffs are within reach and we control our own destiny. A loss would make the playoffs nearly, but not completely, impossible.

When I look at the teams ahead of us, I actually DO see one team ripe for a complete and total collapse. Unfortunately, it is not the Eagles. It is the Bears. If look are their record, they look pretty good. But look at their schedule and see who they have beaten. The best team that they have beaten is us, when we had no one in particular playing defense.
 
Can you imagine if the Cowboys won out actually made it to the playoffs and won out and make it to the Super Bowl that would be truly historic, even though the odds may be low.
 
Reid1boys said:
well, the sorry Giants were 7-7 and people were screaming for Tom Coughlin to be fired. A few weeks later, they were hoisting the trophy.
Click to expand...

Yep, in the NFL any given Sunday and we take one at a time and hope for the best!
 
acr731 said:
Dallas with a 1% chance to make the super bowl and some CZ members have already purchased their tickets to Santa Clara...
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I can’t afford tickets, lol and besides, you can’t see squat from a stadium seat no matter where you are. I’ve seen enough high school football game standing on the sidelines and you can’t tell what’s going on without your spotter in the press boxThe BEST seats are in front of the TV.
:flagwave:
 
Reid1boys said:
well, the sorry Giants were 7-7 and people were screaming for Tom Coughlin to be fired. A few weeks later, they were hoisting the trophy.
Click to expand...
I think the NY Giants seasons are best ones to compare what is possible for this Cowboys team, especially the second Super Bowl win. But like I mentioned before, look at Eli's numbers during that second Super Bowl win. Dude was impressive. Dak is going to have to play some lights out too. I always felt that Eli's laid back swagger is what made him so clutch in those big games, but I feel the opposite about Dak. Seems to get in his own head during the big games.
 
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