Big spending teams on WRs don't make the playoffs often enough

[john van brocklin]

With all the discussions about tagging George Pickens and how or why we should keep him long term, or if we should keep both he and Cedee Lamb…There’s an interesting fact about the teams who are top ten spenders each year on WRs:

They don’t usually even make the playoffs.
In fact, in the last 5 seasons (2021-25), the top ten most expensive WR rooms only made the playoffs approximately 46% of the time.
For example, here are the top ten teams spending big on WRs in 2025:

1. Cincinnati-$50.9 million
2. Tampa Bay - $47.5 million
3. Miami - $41 million
4. Chicago - $35.3 million
5. Tennessee- $33.6 million
6. Indianapolis- $33.4 million
7. Detroit $30.4 million
8. San Francisco $29.1 million
9. Washington $28.7 million
10. Dallas $28.2 million

Of those ten teams only three made the playoffs in 2025.

I won’t take up a huge amount of space here listing each team from 2021-24. But I did my homework and only one team in the last 5 years that spent top ten money on WRs won a SB - the 2023 chiefs.

So as we discuss how to allocate future cap space, let’s remember that having the highest paid WR room does not translate to playoff success very often. Not saying WR talent isn’t important. Just saying be wise and discerning on spending big money on them.

Here’s the link I used: https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/position/_/year/2025/table/active-reserve/type/cap_total
(You can look up positional spending by year)

It’s flashy and sells tickets

 

[Diehardblues]

I wouldn’t say it’s not possible for that reason. You also need to discount much of history considering it was such a different game years ago, with the run game vs pass.

You’ll need to get some production out of several low cost draft picks to compensate, but I wouldn’t term it as impossible.

At the very least, it’s “impossible” to win here for several other reasons that beat that reason lol.

Yep. We have several impossible reasons going against us. Our highly paid WR tandem needs to get in line .

 

[Diehardblues]

It’s flashy and sells tickets

That and our offense is only reason we have any shot at all of making playoffs.

We have to remember winning championship isn’t our core initiative anymore.

We just want to “remain relative and interesting” while “ hanging around the rim”. Those are our owners words.

 

[Diehardblues]

Their cap hits were 8 and 13 mil. Gotta look at all the facts.

Great point . And why if we intended to keep Pickens should have resigned him so his Cap hits would have been much less at least initially in first few years.

Most of these huge deals the bigger cap hits are pushed to back of contract. That’s when you either release, trade or renegotiate.

 

[Flamma]

So as we discuss how to allocate future cap space, let’s remember that having the highest paid WR room does not translate to playoff success very often. Not saying WR talent isn’t important. Just saying be wise and discerning on spending big money on them.

There are too many moving parts to this. The biggest missing part is, what does the rest of the team look like? If you pay two WRs and ignore the rest of the team, of course you probably won't make the playoffs. Because tagging a WR puts more strain on the cap for at least 2 years.

The reason teams that pay two top receivers not making the playoffs is not cap related. It's how you then choose to structure your team around them. Some, if not most owners will limit the amount of guaranteed money a GM can use. That can lead to holes elsewhere on the team, not cap space issues.

 

[OGSixshooter]

The bigger problem or issue for our QB and offense is he needs 2 viable receivers .

Game-Set-Match-Wimbledon-Tournament-GrandSlam

 

[KingCorcoran]

With all the discussions about tagging George Pickens and how or why we should keep him long term, or if we should keep both he and Cedee Lamb…There’s an interesting fact about the teams who are top ten spenders each year on WRs:

They don’t usually even make the playoffs.
In fact, in the last 5 seasons (2021-25), the top ten most expensive WR rooms only made the playoffs approximately 46% of the time.
For example, here are the top ten teams spending big on WRs in 2025:

1. Cincinnati-$50.9 million
2. Tampa Bay - $47.5 million
3. Miami - $41 million
4. Chicago - $35.3 million
5. Tennessee- $33.6 million
6. Indianapolis- $33.4 million
7. Detroit $30.4 million
8. San Francisco $29.1 million
9. Washington $28.7 million
10. Dallas $28.2 million

Of those ten teams only three made the playoffs in 2025.

I won’t take up a huge amount of space here listing each team from 2021-24. But I did my homework and only one team in the last 5 years that spent top ten money on WRs won a SB - the 2023 chiefs.

So as we discuss how to allocate future cap space, let’s remember that having the highest paid WR room does not translate to playoff success very often. Not saying WR talent isn’t important. Just saying be wise and discerning on spending big money on them.

Here’s the link I used: https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/position/_/year/2025/table/active-reserve/type/cap_total
(You can look up positional spending by year)

That’s bad news as the Cowboys are close to the top of the wide receiver spending list for 2026.

 

[fivetwos]

Yep. We have several impossible reasons going against us. Our highly paid WR tandem needs to get in line .

Try on Jerry karma and his “deal with God.”

I’m sure that’s a joke to him, and the exact opposite of what I knew of this team from Landry and Staubach. These were great men, and why I became a fan of the franchise.

Rip me over bashing Jerry all you want (generally, not you) but the Dallas Cowboys for me were once about being solid human beings, God fearing leaders, and Texas football. This as a kid growing up in northern NJ.

Somehow it morphed into stripper busses and paternity suits, but hey….some say I’m wrong for complaining.

 

[Rockport]

The bigger problem or issue for our QB and offense is he needs 2 viable receivers .

All QB’s need AT LEAST 2 viable receivers. Flournoy had 40 receptions and Ferguson had 82. Football 101. The hate has you severely blinded.

 

[Rockport]

Try on Jerry karma and his “deal with God.”

I’m sure that’s a joke to him, and the exact opposite of what I knew of this team from Landry and Staubach. These were great men, and why I became a fan of the franchise.

Rip me over bashing Jerry all you want (generally, not you) but the Dallas Cowboys for me were once about being solid human beings, God fearing leaders, and Texas football. This as a kid growing up in northern NJ.

Somehow it morphed into stripper busses and paternity suits, but hey….some say I’m wrong for complaining.

No one is saying you’re wrong for complaining about Jerry. Everyone does it. It is wrong to do it 24x7x365 not saying you’re one of them. Just close. You take the holidays off.

 

[AsthmaField]

That doesn't make sense. All that matters is the cap hits.

So, are we not really talking about having two good receivers, but instead talking about having a front office that is good with manipulating the cap?

If so, then it isn’t really having two WR’s on big contracts that keep a team from winning. It is being creative with the cap like Philly was when they won the SB.

 

[shabazz]

With all the discussions about tagging George Pickens and how or why we should keep him long term, or if we should keep both he and Cedee Lamb…There’s an interesting fact about the teams who are top ten spenders each year on WRs:

They don’t usually even make the playoffs.
In fact, in the last 5 seasons (2021-25), the top ten most expensive WR rooms only made the playoffs approximately 46% of the time.
For example, here are the top ten teams spending big on WRs in 2025:

1. Cincinnati-$50.9 million
2. Tampa Bay - $47.5 million
3. Miami - $41 million
4. Chicago - $35.3 million
5. Tennessee- $33.6 million
6. Indianapolis- $33.4 million
7. Detroit $30.4 million
8. San Francisco $29.1 million
9. Washington $28.7 million
10. Dallas $28.2 million

Of those ten teams only three made the playoffs in 2025.

I won’t take up a huge amount of space here listing each team from 2021-24. But I did my homework and only one team in the last 5 years that spent top ten money on WRs won a SB - the 2023 chiefs.

So as we discuss how to allocate future cap space, let’s remember that having the highest paid WR room does not translate to playoff success very often. Not saying WR talent isn’t important. Just saying be wise and discerning on spending big money on them.

Here’s the link I used: https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/position/_/year/2025/table/active-reserve/type/cap_total
(You can look up positional spending by year)

Your point is well taken but its just that we so rarely get proven talent here via trade or FA that I'd really like to see him stay at least 3 seasons even if the last two are rentals.

But common sense does suggest that this money should be used to address defensive deficiencies

 

[DarkVader33]

Winner, winner

Win what? Dallas O was top five two years ago without a viable #2.

 

[kskboys]

Neither do teams that cant move the ball and score

Correct. And to do that you need sharp route running WRs and a good tough yards RB. Not the high priced high flying WRs.

 

[kskboys]

I wouldn’t say it’s not possible for that reason. You also need to discount much of history considering it was such a different game years ago, with the run game vs pass.

You’ll need to get some production out of several low cost draft picks to compensate, but I wouldn’t term it as impossible.

At the very least, it’s “impossible” to win here for several other reasons that beat that reason lol.

Well, I go on models of success. Super bowl teams invariably have strong OL and DL play. Only team w/ 2 top WRs I saw win a super bowl was Philly, and they were early in their contracts w/ cap hits of like 8 and 13 mil(Somewhere around there, I'm not going to look it up again as the exact amount is irrelevant.)

Back in the day you could have 2 top WRs and win super bowls. It's just not true any more. The extreme high cost just takes away too many D players.

 

[kskboys]

We're a better team with Pickens. Regardless of what others have done this team has a stronger chance with Pickens and Lamb.

Unless you have to pay both over 34 mil/season, then we do not have a stronger chance.

 

[fivetwos]

Well, I go on models of success. Super bowl teams invariably have strong OL and DL play. Only team w/ 2 top WRs I saw win a super bowl was Philly, and they were early in their contracts w/ cap hits of like 8 and 13 mil(Somewhere around there, I'm not going to look it up again as the exact amount is irrelevant.)

Back in the day you could have 2 top WRs and win super bowls. It's just not true any more. The extreme high cost just takes away too many D players.

And that’s all well and true. I suspect the plan all along may have been to have him for two years then move on, also fine, but if he has a good enough season to the point where Dallas cannot afford him, then they won’t be able to lose him and not feel it.

So they’ll need to find a reasonably soft landing. Think about what you’d have to do in order to pull that off….you won’t be able to sign a comparable free agent, or they’d have kept Pickens….which leaves drafting one, or trading for one still on a rookie deal. For either scenario they will need their high picks if they aren’t planning to keep him.

I’m very indifferent on it, but if he walks, they can’t go giving us a Jalen Tolbert project replacement. That ain’t gonna work. Draft a first round talent or trade that pick for one.

Edit: point being, I wouldn’t trade a first or a second for a LB at this point in time.

 

[CWR]

Unless you have to pay both over 34 mil/season, then we do not have a stronger chance.

Its really difficult projecting when and where this FO will spend money. I think there are too many assuming if we let Pickens walk we will replace him with similar talent in other needed positions.

 

[kskboys]

Great point . And why if we intended to keep Pickens should have resigned him so his Cap hits would have been much less at least initially in first few years.

Most of these huge deals the bigger cap hits are pushed to back of contract. That’s when you either release, trade or renegotiate.

That's what I've thought from the start. 5 year contract majorly end loaded.

 

[kskboys]

Its really difficult projecting when and where this FO will spend money. I think there are too many assuming if we let Pickens walk we will replace him with similar talent in other needed positions.

'All true, but the fact remains that overpaying 2 WRs generally leads to non-contention. Only way would be end loaded contracts where the cap hits are minimal for 2-3 years.