I think Dallas finishes with a top-10 defense in PPG THIS season. Not next year... not two years from now. This year.
I know that I'm guilty of wearing rose-colored glasses, but remember, we've seen this level of transformation before.
In 2020, Dallas finished 28th in scoring defense. One year later, after replacing Mike Nolan with Dan Quinn and drafting Micah Parsons, they jumped all the way to 7th.
I'm not saying Caleb Downs is Micah Parsons. They're different players at different positions. But I do think Downs has the potential to have the same kind of transformational effect on the communication and confidence of the defense. I think Downs has the potential to make more of an overall defensive identity impact than Parsons did.
The bigger reason for my optimism, though, is Christian Parker.
Personally, I think the gap between Eberflus and Parker is every bit as large as the gap between Nolan and Quinn. In fact, I think it may be larger. I thought Eberflus was that bad. Last year's defense wasn't just lacking talent. It lacked identity, communication, and any sense that players were being put in a position to succeed.
Also, Parker isn't inheriting the exact same roster as last year. Dallas added Caleb Downs, Malachi Lawrence, Jaishawn Barham, Devin Moore, LT Overton, and made several trades that should make a very visible difference. To me, that's actually a more complete defensive makeover than what we saw going into 2021.
Will they be the No. 1 defense? Probably not. But I don't think a jump into the top 10 is nearly as unrealistic as many people think. If Parker is the coach I believe he is, Downs is as good as the early reports suggest, and this front seven plays to its potential, I think Dallas surprises a lot of people this season.
What do you guys think? Am I overly optimistic, or is a top-10 defense actually within reach?
I don't think we end up with an overall top 10ish defense for the year, but last 4,5 games this defense has the makings of being a top 10 defense.
Too many changes in one year for it to all fall in place quickly. new coaches. new scheme, a lot of new players at lots of positions.
they are athletically better group, seemingly younger, hungrier and smarter. that alone helps to improve us, because they will get there faster, take natuarlly better angles, etc.
but communication and understanding assignments, knowing each other and playing together will take time. parker won't be able to unleash the entire play book and sophisticated defense
I look for this defense to be better than last year's defense, right out of the gate. but they will miss assignments, line up incorrectly, take the wrong angles, etc. and give up a few big plays here and there and I expect this board to have a melt down. well at least a few of them.
so first 4 games, getting used to each other, adjusting, understanding, learning. by second 4 games, play book expands, we should see more splash plays, less big plays given up and more consistency....by the 3rd quarter of the season, we should see small pieces of dominance from this group. more sophisticated defense, better understanding and playing like a top 15ish defense consistently and by the last quarter of the season they should come together and play like a top 10ish defense.
but there is also a lot of things that have to go right.
Will Downs play like expected as a Rookie. every rookie has a learning curve.
How will the LBs play?
How will the CBs respond, as we have question marks with all of them
and will the pass rush be able to step up, we have a lot of players at DE, no stars, so who will step up to be that consistent pressure player.