Some things I've learned about the NFL

[Bobhaze]

Finally! The regular season begins. And every year, just when any of us think we have the NFL figured out as to who will make the playoffs, win divisions, and even win the Super Bowl, surprises happen. They will this year too.

So here are some things I’ve learned about the NFL that I will try to remember as the 2026 season progresses:

• In a 17 game season, each game is approximately 6% of the season. I don’t get too high or too low based on one game. It’s takes at least 4-6 games to know what a team is. And even then it may take a lot longer.
• The teams that were good and the ones who were bad from the year before don’t always indicate what they will be this year. (That’s good for us)
• All 32 teams have changed. Some for the better some for the worse. BUT - we don’t know who they are yet.
• Based on NFL averages, at least 40% of the teams who made the playoffs last year will not make it this year. Thats good for us!

Two guarantees I will make every season:

1. You can’t look at the schedule and predict wins and losses. Every team on our schedule can be a win or a loss. The margins between good and bad teams in the NFL is always thin.
2. There will be surprises. Good and bad ones.

I’m so glad meaningful football is finally here! It could be a great year for the Cowboys. And it also might not be. That’s the way it is in the NFL.

Here’s to a great 2026 season. Go Cowboys!

 

[Praxit]

..Good one, Bullet.

 

[Established1971]

Ive always said strength of schedule talk for a whole year before the year starts is the silliest waste of time

when I gambled a bit I would always wait for week 8 before starting

 

[Bobhaze]

Ive always said strength of schedule talk for a whole year before the year starts is the silliest waste of time

when I gambled a bit I would always wait for week 8 before starting

Wise words. It’s a joke to predict whole seasons in advance.

 

[pitt33]

Ive always said strength of schedule talk for a whole year before the year starts is the silliest waste of time

when I gambled a bit I would always wait for week 8 before starting

Oh yeah?

Not me.

I’m all on board with strength of schedule.

I’ll tell ya what’s silly..

Preseason hype based on training camp darlings and meaningless games against scrubs.

 

[nate dizzle]

Ive always said strength of schedule talk for a whole year before the year starts is the silliest waste of time

when I gambled a bit I would always wait for week 8 before starting

I feel like by week 8 the odds makers are even more dialed in so it gets harder. Early in the season seems like you have a small window of time to take advantage of the early lines. I mean, that very much is just a gut feeling and hasnt led to me retiring on gambling winnings or anything...

 

[AbeBeta]

..Good one, Bullet.

you got a low bar -- some of these points are just simple math that any intelligent person could knock out in their heads

 

[nate dizzle]

Wise words. It’s a joke to predict whole seasons in advance.

It's why I laugh at all the hype that comes from every completed preseason pass or big play in TC practice. Means bupkus.

 

[Bobhaze]

you got a low bar -- some of these points are just simple math that any intelligent person could knock out in their heads

I waited for you Abe, but since you didn’t post them, I thought I should.

 

[Reid1boys]

Wise words. It’s a joke to predict whole seasons in advance.

Yep... I just watched Darnold go down on the 5th play of the game, and Seattle immediately became the Dolphins/

 

[Ranching]

..Good one, Bullet.

I know, he didn't even mention Jerry!!

 

[rambo2]

Ive always said strength of schedule talk for a whole year before the year starts is the silliest waste of time

when I gambled a bit I would always wait for week 8 before starting

How rich are you now?

 

[nate dizzle]

I waited for you Abe, but since you didn’t post them, I thought I should.

He did call you intelligent. That was nice.

 

[Coogiguy03]

Finally! The regular season begins. And every year, just when any of us think we have the NFL figured out as to who will make the playoffs, win divisions, and even win the Super Bowl, surprises happen. They will this year too.

So here are some things I’ve learned about the NFL that I will try to remember as the 2026 season progresses:

• In a 17 game season, each game is approximately 6% of the season. I don’t get too high or too low based on one game. It’s takes at least 4-6 games to know what a team is. And even then it may take a lot longer.
• The teams that were good and the ones who were bad from the year before don’t always indicate what they will be this year. (That’s good for us)
• All 32 teams have changed. Some for the better some for the worse. BUT - we don’t know who they are yet.
• Based on NFL averages, at least 40% of the teams who made the playoffs last year will not make it this year. Thats good for us!

Two guarantees I will make every season:

1. You can’t look at the schedule and predict wins and losses. Every team on our schedule can be a win or a loss. The margins between good and bad teams in the NFL is always thin.
2. There will be surprises. Good and bad ones.

I’m so glad meaningful football is finally here! It could be a great year for the Cowboys. And it also might not be. That’s the way it is in the NFL.

Here’s to a great 2026 season. Go Cowboys!

Yet somehow haze it's done when referring to predicting wins, we've seen this to bad for us in several years. We over estimate ourselves and play to the level of our opponents record!

 

[AbeBeta]

• Based on NFL averages, at least 40% of the teams who made the playoffs last year will not make it this year. Thats good for us!

Statistics like this are meaningless unless you provide a range. Overall, it was 40%, but what is the range over the last 10 years? I expect it is all over the place. That information would be way more informative than a simple point estimate.

Over the years, fantasy football has made people think they are qualified to present and discuss statistics. Not a good development.

 

[nate dizzle]

Yep... I just watched Darnold go down on the 5th play of the game, and Seattle immediately became the Dolphins/

Don't worry, I was told Darnold was just in the right place at the right time so I'm sure they'll be fine...

 

[Bobhaze]

Statistics like this are meaningless unless you provide a range. Overall, it was 40%, but what is the range over the last 10 years? I expect it is all over the place. That information would be way more informative than a simple point estimate.

Over the years, fantasy football has made people think they are qualified to present and discuss statistics. Not a good development.

Please feel free to share any additional research or insight you may have.

 

[Established1971]

Oh yeah?

Not me.

I’m all on board with strength of schedule.

I’ll tell ya what’s silly..

Preseason hype based on training camp darlings and meaningless games against scrubs.

I can mathematically prove preseason SOS is meaningless

 

[Established1971]

How rich are you now?

a little richer than if I bet starting week 1

 

[DandyDon52]

Ive always said strength of schedule talk for a whole year before the year starts is the silliest waste of time

when I gambled a bit I would always wait for week 8 before starting

yeah waiting at least 2 weeks is smart.
I did a very small wager on dallas to win the first game -3.