Some things I've learned about the NFL

[kskboys]

Yep... I just watched Darnold go down on the 5th play of the game, and Seattle immediately became the Dolphins/

And won.

 

[kskboys]

Yet somehow haze it's done when referring to predicting wins, we've seen this to bad for us in several years. We over estimate ourselves and play to the level of our opponents record!

Yes, Coogsywoogsy, but that was before we rebuilt the D and FIIIIIINNNNNNNAAAAALLLLYYYYY got us some hosses for the DLine. The game will be completely different now.

 

[kskboys]

I can mathematically prove preseason SOS is meaningless

Of course. Only the most casual of casual fans think otherwise. You can find them in the Camden Brown threads!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

[Reality]

1. You can’t look at the schedule and predict wins and losses. Every team on our schedule can be a win or a loss. The margins between good and bad teams in the NFL is always thin.

I repeat the same thing every year when the laughable "strength of schedule" lists come out because SoS isn't relevant until the end of the season and even then, you need to exclude the games your team was in to get an accurate number.

I would also add that there are no "shocking wins" in week one games. Maybe several games later you can look back and wonder, "how did they beat that team?" but after one game, you are what you are until you are not.

1. There will be surprises. Good and bad ones.

One good or bad play can change the context of the game at any moment.

 

[kskboys]

I repeat the same thing every year when the laughable "strength of schedule" lists come out because SoS isn't relevant until the end of the season and even then, you need to exclude the games your team was in to get an accurate number.

I would also add that there are no "shocking wins" in week one games. Maybe several games later you can look back and wonder, "how did they beat that team?" but after one game, you are what you until you are not.


One good or bad play can change the context of the game at any moment.

Pretty much every year fans bemoan how horrifically hard our schedule is. First of all, if those opponents are that difficult, build a better team. Secondly, why can't we be the difficult opponent? We now have a D, looks like it's us that will be considered the difficult opponent.

Who was so difficult last preseason? KC? Horrific. WASH? Just terrible. GB?

W/ maybe 3 players added to our D last year, we easily win 9-10 games. And we added 7 and some very promising rooks.

 

[jazzcat22]

Some over reaction on teams making and not making the playoffs year to year.
From last night s game. Which means nothing how both teams played in f=game one.

Going into the 2025 season, no one had Seattle and NE in the SB. Let alone to even make the playoffs.
Going into the 2026 season, most everyone hade them going deep in the playoffs again.

Seattle loses their QB. Possibly long term.
NE Maye throwing 3 picks, one bad decision to end the game. Ok, may not be typical of his play for the season. However, they may have lost Brown for the season if torn achilles is true.

Just goes to show you how fast a team may be derailed. Now that SOS has altered many teams path, if these injuries truly effects these teams.

OK, my over reaction game 1 is done.

 

[pitt33]

Question for the SoS naysayers..

If degree of schedule difficulty is so inconsequential, why do Vegas oddsmakers have us as underdogs against those teams in question? I’m specifically referring to win probability %.

 

[kskboys]

Some over reaction on teams making and not making the playoffs year to year.
From last night s game. Which means nothing how both teams played in f=game one.

Going into the 2025 season, no one had Seattle and NE in the SB. Let alone to even make the playoffs.
Going into the 2026 season, most everyone hade them going deep in the playoffs again.

Seattle loses their QB. Possibly long term.
NE Maye throwing 3 picks, one bad decision to end the game. Ok, may not be typical of his play for the season. However, they may have lost Brown for the season if torn achilles is true.

Just goes to show you how fast a team may be derailed. Now that SOS has altered many teams path, if these injuries truly effects these teams.

OK, my over reaction game 1 is done.

SEA won 10 games the previous year and many had them making the playoffs as their D was 6th.

NE was indeed a Cinderella team last season, buoyed greatly by the acquisition of Milton Williams, who was the reason NE beat DEN in the AFC champ game.

 

[kskboys]

Question for the SoS naysayers..

If degree of schedule difficulty is so inconsequential, why do Vegas oddsmakers have us as underdogs against those teams in question? I’m specifically referring to win probability %.

Because the oddsmakers odds are predicated on people betting, and people bet in the early season mostly based on what happened last season. Vegas doesn't do their betting based on what they think will happen.

 

[jazzcat22]

SEA won 10 games the previous year and many had them making the playoffs as their D was 6th.

NE was indeed a Cinderella team last season, buoyed greatly by the acquisition of Milton Williams, who was the reason NE beat DEN in the AFC champ game.

So Bo Nix missing the game had nothing to do with it?
I think Denver wins that game with Nix in there.

 

[kskboys]

So Bo Nix missing the game had nothing to do with it?
I think Denver wins that game with Nix in there.

Do you know what a Cinderella team means?

 

[jazzcat22]

Do you know what a Cinderella team means?

 

[Deionindahood]

Finally! The regular season begins. And every year, just when any of us think we have the NFL figured out as to who will make the playoffs, win divisions, and even win the Super Bowl, surprises happen. They will this year too.

So here are some things I’ve learned about the NFL that I will try to remember as the 2026 season progresses:

• In a 17 game season, each game is approximately 6% of the season. I don’t get too high or too low based on one game. It’s takes at least 4-6 games to know what a team is. And even then it may take a lot longer.
• The teams that were good and the ones who were bad from the year before don’t always indicate what they will be this year. (That’s good for us)
• All 32 teams have changed. Some for the better some for the worse. BUT - we don’t know who they are yet.
• Based on NFL averages, at least 40% of the teams who made the playoffs last year will not make it this year. Thats good for us!

Two guarantees I will make every season:

1. You can’t look at the schedule and predict wins and losses. Every team on our schedule can be a win or a loss. The margins between good and bad teams in the NFL is always thin.
2. There will be surprises. Good and bad ones.

I’m so glad meaningful football is finally here! It could be a great year for the Cowboys. And it also might not be. That’s the way it is in the NFL.

Here’s to a great 2026 season. Go Cowboys!

I'd like to add the injury factor as well. One injury to a significant player can change the course of a team.

 

[kskboys]

That means you don't.

It means that everything had to fall in place for that team to advance. Milton Williams was stellar in that game, making sure the DEN O couldn't do much of anything.

 

[Whirlwin]

Finally! The regular season begins. And every year, just when any of us think we have the NFL figured out as to who will make the playoffs, win divisions, and even win the Super Bowl, surprises happen. They will this year too.

So here are some things I’ve learned about the NFL that I will try to remember as the 2026 season progresses:

• In a 17 game season, each game is approximately 6% of the season. I don’t get too high or too low based on one game. It’s takes at least 4-6 games to know what a team is. And even then it may take a lot longer.
• The teams that were good and the ones who were bad from the year before don’t always indicate what they will be this year. (That’s good for us)
• All 32 teams have changed. Some for the better some for the worse. BUT - we don’t know who they are yet.
• Based on NFL averages, at least 40% of the teams who made the playoffs last year will not make it this year. Thats good for us!

Two guarantees I will make every season:

1. You can’t look at the schedule and predict wins and losses. Every team on our schedule can be a win or a loss. The margins between good and bad teams in the NFL is always thin.
2. There will be surprises. Good and bad ones.

I’m so glad meaningful football is finally here! It could be a great year for the Cowboys. And it also might not be. That’s the way it is in the NFL.

Here’s to a great 2026 season. Go Cowboys!

You cannot look at the schedule, and predict, wins, losses
Well, that’s why Vegas loves the NFL,
It’s a gamble, and there’s no doubt about that, and that’s why I don’t do it
But it’s fun to try and guess

 

[Whirlwin]

..Good one, Bullet.

He pays attention to detail, I think he sleeps on it, wakes up and post, he just doesn’t shoot from the hip,
And it’s elegant, lol

 

[DanTanna]

Good post Bob.

Strength of schedule comes into play AFTER the fact. You can look back at the season and say "Damn, the longhorns had an easy schedule". LOL

 

[jazzcat22]

That means you don't.

It means that everything had to fall in place for that team to advance. Milton Williams was stellar in that game, making sure the DEN O couldn't do much of anything.

It doesn't matter what I think. You will spin it differently for your narrative.

Nix was out. It changed that game dramatically. If not for not, their Cinderella season would have been over.
What is so hard to understand about that.

If I remember, NE even struggled to win that game against a very bad back up QB.

 

[Whirlwin]

It doesn't matter what I think. You will spin it differently for your narrative.

Nix was out. It changed that game dramatically. If not for not, their Cinderella season would have been over.
What is so hard to understand about that.

If I remember, NE even struggled to win that game against a very bad back up QB.

That was a snow game at the end, New England slipped right into the Super Bowl,

 

[RodeoJake]

Good read, Bob. The fun thing about the NFL is you just don't know who's going to do what. There are indicators, but you don't know which teams will gel and stay relatively injury free. December is about when the muddy waters clear and you can see the bottom. The Philly dream team is a good example of why it takes time to see things clearly.