For those still confused about the 2-pt call

[SteveTheCowboy]

No use it to give you data points. But you have time understand the flow of the game, the context and situation

In this case, I would not have done it...

Agreed.

We may have a good offense...especially when there's a lot of space. But when we get packed in a pressure situation...just not that powerful and confident.

Like when we threw the ball out of bounds instead of trying for the TD? THAT...is not a powerful confident offense at the goal.

Get the point and gamble later on when forced to.

 

[Kevinicus]

No use it to give you data points. But you have time understand the flow of the game, the context and situation

In this case, I would not have done it...

That's fine. I disagree, especially in yhis case. Things people bring up are things I would suggest makes going for 2 more attractive.

 

[TheMarathonContinues]

I think that’s a fair criticism. Schottenheimer hasn’t earned any faith or benefit of the doubt from us fans. He needs to earn that with wins.

Yeah if he was winning I wouldn’t complain at all. He does some things well. Something’s are concerning.

 

[SteveTheCowboy]

The notion the Cowboys should play for ot because they don’t trust the offense to get a 2 point conversion is crazy because I would trust that WAY more than I trust the defense to get a stop in overtime.

So you trust an offense that intentionally throws the ball out of bounds in 2 seconds...rather than getting the TD.

mkay.

 

[SteveTheCowboy]

That's fine. I disagree, especially in yhis case. Things people bring up are things I would suggest makes going for 2 more attractive.

So you trust an offense that intentionally throws the ball out of bounds in 2 seconds...rather than getting the TD.

mkay.

 

[Kevinicus]

The strategy is entirely dependent on base rate probability of a 2-pt conversion, and we have already seen evidence of that base rate changing as DCs spend more time preparing for it since teams are doing this.

2pt rate has never been below 41% in a season. It's been pretty consistently in the mid 40's to low 50's.

 

[csirl]

That makes even less sense.

How come? Why wouldnt you kick the Xpt and leave any decision on a 2pt until the later TD?

 

[JBS]

The math of the probabilities still works regardless of sample size. But yes, there should be more data. Unfortunately, people are stuck in old ideas they don't want to look at the reality of that probabilities part, and just want to stick with what they know.

Correct. The sample size isn’t bad on specific situation. It’s based on 2pt success rate in general which the sample size is plenty big enough

 

[gtb1943]

Not in the least bit true. I never said to ignore everything else.

The people stubbornly fighting against it are doing so, not out of logic or reason, but because they're unwilling to open their minds to something that goes against what they have always just accepted. They want to trash a useful tool because it suggests something that doesn't fit with what's comfortable.

People can disagree with the decision based on some subjective factors (though I haven't seen good ones provided for last Tbursday), but to say it doesn't make sense or is dumb is quite frankly idiotic.

no, you think this is more important than any other factor and you are wrong
you act like you have some kind of personal stake in this

 

[HungryLion]

And yet...coach and Dak threw the ball out of bounds in 2 seconds on 3rd and short for the TYD and (likely) win.

that's NOT "best offense in the league".

So...no...you aren't making any sense.

1. I didn’t say “best offense in the league”.

2. Going for it makes sense based on some factors. You just disagree with it due to subjective factors and that’s ok.

3 I never actually said I was 100% in favor of going for it. Just that it makes sense based on some factors. And thus I was fine with it.

 

[CWR]

They just got a stop with a goalline stop and drove 99.5 yards for a score with relative ease...exactly how much better momentum are you expecting?

The offense has to perform in ANY scenario you want to win.

They had sucked for a long time before that ONE drive. It was easily the worst ive seen Dak look all season. Give me a couple good drives before we decide to get overly aggressive.

 

[gtb1943]

They had sucked for a long time before that ONE drive. It was easily the worst ive seen Dak look all season. Give me a couple good drives before we decide to get overly aggressive.

the feel of the game is the most important factor in any such decision
not numbers

 

[erod]

Analytics say go for two.

Which is all you need to know about analytics.

They've ruined baseball entirely. Leave our football alone.

 

[links18]

Too much gambling has taken over people's brains. Regardless of the abstract math, you have to evaluate the game situation at that moment. It was wrong the call in that situation. The offense was struggling; kick the ball, kick it again and play for overtime or a last second Aubrey kick to win. Don't put yourself in a hole, because of "math." It's dumb....

 

[Vtwin]

Kicking the XP leaves options open.

Failing the 2 point conversion reduces options.

The thousands of plays the analytics used to come up with the math driven conclusion really have nothing to do with the circumstances of this particular situation.

If analytics were the end all be all then theoretically teams that played entirely based on the analytics would dominate.

 

[SteveTheCowboy]

Correct. The sample size isn’t bad on specific situation. It’s based on 2pt success rate in general which the sample size is plenty big enough

Does it factor in the type of offense AND type of defense?

"In general"...is not accurate enough for me.

 

[SteveTheCowboy]

Kicking the XP leaves options open.

Failing the 2 point conversion reduces options.

The thousands of plays the analytics used to come up with the math driven conclusion really have nothing to do with the circumstances of this particular situation.

If analytics were the end all be all then theoretically teams that played entirely based on the analytics would dominate.

Yep...you wouldn't need a coach just a Surface.

 

[zrinkill]

Nobody is confused

You either believe the "moneyball" nonsense or you do not.

 

[CWR]

Does it factor in the type of offense AND type of defense?

"In general"...is not accurate enough for me.

Or factor in you qbr for that game, or how well your running the ball or you success on 3rd and short or any number of things which are all really important considerations before making that decision?

Imo, it seems the analytics are incomplete and need more input to be trusted.

 

[goshann]

The sample size is too small.

They need many years of teams actually implementing that strategy to get sufficient data.

Nah
sample size isn’t needed
The input probabilities are known