Running game is why the defense looks better

BlindFaith said:
Measure "making plays" for me. Numbers don't lie. This defense gives up a lot of yards per play. And they give up quite a few points per play. And they are not even average at stopping third downs or giving up first downs.

Are you willing to count on "big plays" and "key stops" every game? What if they don't get those big plays and key stops? Then they are what they are. A team giving up yards and points. And a lot of yards at that. 27th in the league. Are you ok with that? Or do you think that at some points those yards will lead to even more points.

If I were a betting man, I't bet on the stats and not on hoping for a big play or a key stop.
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Yes numbers lie, geeks love the numbers but they do not tell the whole story. Fact is Dallas gave up 27 points a game last year they are not doing that this season. You want a stat there you go, it is about points plain and simple. No one ever won a game because they had x amont of yards you win based on points made and points allowed. But the stat guys love the numbers don't know crap about the game but love the numbers
 
Doomsday101 said:
I think many fall in love with stats. You take the seahawks game and you see Lynch avg 6.1 a carry. Fact is he had 1 good run and was shut down the rest of the time. Anyone who watched the game damn well knew Lynch was shut down that 1 run meant nothing but overall seahawks were facing 2nd/3rd and long
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I agree with you on stats. And baseball is now being managed by some based on stats. Football is harder to do in that regard, but I'm sure Percy or others will give you stats that do directly correlate to winning.

My argument was mostly about how running the football has helped this team more than what may or may not be an improved defense.

I clearly pointed out that if this defense were forced to play as many snaps as Philly's D did, then this defense would look so hot. And am still not sold on this defense even being average yet, which the stats do support.
 
TOP has been a factor.

The other factor is that the pass defense has tightened up. Both at the LB position and at the corner spot. Both Scandrick AND Moore are in the PFF top 10 at the corner position.
 
BlindFaith said:
There was some debate in another thread as to what the actual impact is of time of possession and controlling the clock thus limiting the number of plays the other offense has.

There was also some debate as to whether this defense is improved, and if so, that the improvement is more of a reason as to why we are top 10 in time of possession vs the offense controlling the clock.

So I looked at some stats, per play stats for the defense. Total yardage, points, first downs etc are really meaning less. You need to compare play to play.

But to really demonstrate this point I will list our rankings for Totals:
Total 1st Downs: 1
Total 3rd Downs: 6
Total Points: 10
Total Yards: 14

Looks awesome right? Pretty dominant, top 10 kind of defense. But not so fast.

We are also leading the league in Defensive Plays per game. (56.7) Let's see how we look at a play per play basis:
1st Downs per play:10
3rd Downs per play:19
Points per play:18
Yards per play:27

Not so hot anymore. Let's also throw in 18th for 3rd Down Conversion %. Do these numbers really support the idea that the defense is getting a lot of 3 and outs? Stopping the offense? And speaking of opposing offenses, aside from New Orleans and Seattle ( 7 and 8 respectively) the other 5 opponents are as follows:
NY: 15
San Fran: 21
St Louis: 23
Houston: 24
Tennessee: 29

Now let's compare our offense and defense to that of Philly, because Philly is a fast past offense and we will be playing them soon. Philly is ranked 31st in TOP, we are ranked 2nd. Philly is ranked 3rd in number of plays, we are ranked 7th. Philly averages 22.82 seconds per play (32nd), we average 30.80 (1st).

Philly's defense is also ranked 31st in Defensive Plays per game. 15.1 more plays per game than Dallas.

What would our defense look like from a Totals perspective if they had to be on the field 15.1 more plays a game?
Total 1st Downs: 25
Total 3rd Downs: 19
Total Points: 27
Total Yards: 32

Looks very much like last year.

What's saving us is that we are running the ball. We are #1 in the league in rushing attempts per game (33.6) That's up from only 21 attempts per game last year. We are up on number of offensive plays per game 65.9 compared to 59.8. We average 30.8 seconds per play, up from 29.11. We are controlling the ball 4 minutes and 40 seconds longer this year than last year.

So yes, the running game is helping the defense, very much in fact. And no, the defense is not really much better than last year and should still be a big concern, especially come playoff time.
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Duck, no one wants to hear this

Good post

All 3 factors, offensive efficiency , running game , and defense making stops on 3rd down are important factors but this defense is playing over its head right now.

The positives are that they are disciplined, seem to know their assignments and play with intensity. These things are reproducible from game to game , "making a play " is not. Another positive is that spencer is getting healthier and Lawrence and Brent are coming. So there is hope.
 
Doomsday101 said:
Yes numbers lie, geeks love the numbers but they do not tell the whole story. Fact is Dallas gave up 27 points a game last year they are not doing that this season. You want a stat there you go, it is about points plain and simple. No one ever won a game because they had x amont of yards you win based on points made and points allowed. But the stat guys love the numbers don't know crap about the game but love the numbers
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Did you even read my original post? I based everything by per play.
 
visionary said:
Duck, no one wants to hear this

Good post

All 3 factors, offensive efficiency , running game , and defense making stops on 3rd down are important factors but this defense is playing over its head right now.

The positives are that they are disciplined, seem to know their assignments and play with intensity. These things are reproducible from game to game , "making a play " is not. Another positive is that spencer is getting healthier and Lawrence and Brent are coming. So there is hope.
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Agreed, and maybe putting it that way - Playing over their heads - would have been less of a gut punch to those seeing things differently.
 
BlindFaith said:
OK Defuns gud. Dey play gud.
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You are caught up in numbers and again no I don't think numbers tell the whole story. Hell Lynch avg 6.1 per rush so what, it came on 1 run the rest of the time the defense stuffed him, he could not do jack. Wilson had been ripping defense getting outside of containment Dallas defense did not allow him to do so. This defense has stepped up to the challenges they have faced. Yes there is a lot of room for improvement but to belittle them act as if what they have done is not big deal is wrong. They have made key plays at key moments to help this team win. When facing more powerful offense will they struggle? Sure most defense will give up more plays vs top ranked offense but it still will come down to making key plays and key stops that in the end will determine the outcome
 
Doomsday101 said:
You are caught up in numbers and again no I don't think numbers tell the whole story. Hell Lynch avg 6.1 per rush so what, it came on 1 run the rest of the time the defense stuffed him, he could not do jack. Wilson had been ripping defense getting outside of containment Dallas defense did not allow him to do so. This defense has stepped up to the challenges they have faced. Yes there is a lot of room for improvement but to belittle them act as if what they have done is not big deal is wrong. They have made key plays at key moments to help this team win. When facing more powerful offense will they struggle? Sure most defense will give up more plays vs top ranked offense but it still will come down to making key plays and key stops that in the end will determine the outcome
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Yeah, and with all that awesomeness going on, it still took a spectacular catch on 3rd and 20 for us to win the game.

Let's not forget how San Fran torched us. How St Louis torched us. How Tennessee and the mighty offensive juggernaut that they are came back on us.

We had two good games against two top 10 offenses. We played UP to our competition. That is encouraging. And there is hope that we can get better. But as of right now, I don't think this defense can hang in the playoffs.
 
Skip Bayless correctly answered this question. Sometimes stats don't tell the entire story. Sometimes it's WHEN you're getting timely stops. Rams game.. down 21-0... defense stepped up with four straight stops in the second half including Carter's pic six. Houston.. we're getting gashed by Foster all game.. we lose the OT toss.. and stop them on that first drive at mid field. That's big time. I don't care if the Saints are on the road. Shutting down Breese for a half is big. Especially given what happened last year. Gifted Seattle 17 points... Limited RW to 138 total yards including 12 rushing. Last week... Limit Eli to 7 second half points. Defense is often situational. Running it KEY for sure.. but this D is also playing better. No way around it.
 
BlindFaith said:
Yeah, and with all that awesomeness going on, it still took a spectacular catch on 3rd and 20 for us to win the game.

Let's not forget how San Fran torched us. How St Louis torched us. How Tennessee and the mighty offensive juggernaut that they are came back on us.

We had two good games against two top 10 offenses. We played UP to our competition. That is encouraging. And there is hope that we can get better. But as of right now, I don't think this defense can hang in the playoffs.
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Defense held them down point wise only reason for the 3rd and 20 was because of the offense own miscues that put them in that situation. SF did torch us don't forget 1 fumble returned for a TD, Romo int returned to the 2 yard line and other turnover in the redzone none of that had anything to do with the play of the defense. Outside of that defense gave up 14 points.

St Louis was a poor game since then Austin Davis has shown he is a pretty decent QB but no doubt defense did not play well however Carter pick 6 was big in that game. Tenn came back as did the saints but again crtical moments the defense made key plays to shut the door. Last years group often failed shutting the door.
 
THEHEREAFTER said:
Skip Bayless correctly answered this question. Sometimes stats don't tell the entire story. Sometimes it's WHEN you're getting timely stops. Rams game.. down 21-0... defense stepped up with four straight stops in the second half including Carter's pic six. Houston.. we're getting gashed by Foster all game.. we lose the OT toss.. and stop them on that first drive at mid field. That's big time. I don't care if the Saints are on the road. Shutting down Breese for a half is big. Especially given what happened last year. Gifted Seattle 17 points... Limited RW to 138 total yards including 12 rushing. Last week... Limit Eli to 7 second half points. Defense is often situational. Running it KEY for sure.. but this D is also playing better. No way around it.
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Again, are you willing to bet the house on these "situational" stops. Can you reasonably predict that they will continue to get them? And on what basis are you willing to do so?

I look more at the competition they faced. The Austins, Lockers, Cappernicks, Fitzpatricks. I see THOSE guys as more of the reasons as to why we got all of these impressive "situational" stops.
 
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