Don't Invest In Star Players Looking For That Last Contract

[nightrain]

A cap friendly deal is not what I am talking about here, or renting a player for a year while he plays for what he wants thinks will be a long term deal.

Earl Thomas is the classic example of a great player that a smart team would likely not sign to that last big contract for big guaranteed money. The ROI will likely be disappointing.

http://socalledfantasyexperts.com/aging-curve-nfl-defensive-players-dl-lb-db

 

[erod]

I agree with this, but there are exceptions.

Some players really care about their legacy in the game. Earl Thomas is one. He's headed to the Hall of Fame, and he won't want to taint that at the end without giving his all.

But generally, I agree.

 

[nightrain]

I agree with this, but there are exceptions.

Some players really care about their legacy in the game. Earl Thomas is one. He's headed to the Hall of Fame, and he won't want to taint that at the end without giving his all.

But generally, I agree.

I don't doubt most NFL players would "want" to give their all. It's just that their all is a decreasing return as time goes on. There are exceptions, but overall it is an unwise investment.

 

[BlindFaith]

I don't doubt most NFL players would "want" to give their all. It's just that their all is a decreasing return as time goes on. There are exceptions, but overall it is an unwise investment.

This is the same line we've crossed with Witten. And yes, I agree that you have to be very careful with aging players.

 

[TwoDeep3]

I think this sentiment of last contract has been express about Julius Peppers every year since 1842.

 

[bud914]

I think this sentiment of last contract has been express about Julius Peppers every year since 1842.

 

[DanA]

A cap friendly deal is not what I am talking about here, or renting a player for a year while he plays for what he wants thinks will be a long term deal.

Earl Thomas is the classic example of a great player that a smart team would likely not sign to that last big contract for big guaranteed money. The ROI will likely be disappointing.

http://socalledfantasyexperts.com/aging-curve-nfl-defensive-players-dl-lb-db

I think there's a place for an intelligent older player that has more to his game than speed. These guys tend to keep playing at a high level for longer than the norm. If Thomas was the type of guy that relied on being a better athlete or had an injury history I'd agree, but he doesn't IMO.

 

[conner01]

I agree with this, but there are exceptions.

Some players really care about their legacy in the game. Earl Thomas is one. He's headed to the Hall of Fame, and he won't want to taint that at the end without giving his all.

But generally, I agree.

I agree
There are players that aren’t paying for a check but in general that last contract is rarely good for the team and even more so when it’s with another team

 

[Proximo]

I agree with this, but there are exceptions.

Some players really care about their legacy in the game. Earl Thomas is one. He's headed to the Hall of Fame, and he won't want to taint that at the end without giving his all.

But generally, I agree.

Nailed it. This is one we agree on.

And great safeties are typically able to play past 30 and still be at a high level. This guy has got lots of good football ahead of him (barring any major injuries).

 

[robjay04]

I think this sentiment of last contract has been express about Julius Peppers every year since 1842.

Should we only target UDFA QB’s from now on because Romo was good?

Every example has exceptions. In general, the vast majority of players signing that big contract in free agency never live up to it.

It’s a gamble no matter what you do though so I think this team should try a little more.

 

[Jumbo075]

If the Cowboys land Earl Thomas, it will be a draft day trade that includes the Cowboys' 2nd round pick, plus other considerations on Friday of the draft weekend. The Cowboys will have to clear space, and negotiate a long-term deal with Thomas before the draft, but the trigger won't be pulled until draft day.

 

[TwoDeep3]

Should we only target UDFA QB’s from now on because Romo was good?

Every example has exceptions. In general, the vast majority of players signing that big contract in free agency never live up to it.

It’s a gamble no matter what you do though so I think this team should try a little more.

True, but "the vast majority" doesn't encompass all free agents. And with free agents, you have seen the array of their work history. Sometimes a player has plenty in the tank.

Now Peppers was with Green Bay for three years. He logged 28.5 sacks. He went to Car last year and put up 11 sacks. He is not a pet cat, but the guy has put up 72.5 sacks since 2010 and been a free agent three times. But did this. From 2002 to 20011 he posted over 80 sacks.

When people get frustrated, these are the exceptions where solid GMs do their homework, and pay the man his money and bring play makers

Just saying there are players out there which are exceptional that hit the market.

But cap management, as much as Stephen Jones says the cap doesn't matter, keeps Dallas from finding those guys and bringing them here.

So just what if....how would the Dallas defense looks with an additional 72 sacks since 2010?

 

[ThatJerryKid]

I agree with this, but there are exceptions.

Some players really care about their legacy in the game. Earl Thomas is one. He's headed to the Hall of Fame, and he won't want to taint that at the end without giving his all.

But generally, I agree.

Are you a good friend of Earl’s or how do you know this?

 

[xwalker]

A cap friendly deal is not what I am talking about here, or renting a player for a year while he plays for what he wants thinks will be a long term deal.

Earl Thomas is the classic example of a great player that a smart team would likely not sign to that last big contract for big guaranteed money. The ROI will likely be disappointing.

http://socalledfantasyexperts.com/aging-curve-nfl-defensive-players-dl-lb-db

Statistically it's not good to give a big contract to those types of players.

I think a team would really need to investigate the player to find out their motivations.

If the player is just going for the biggest contract, then that's a good sign that they are focused on getting paid. If the player is very focused on winning then it improves the odds; although some players/agents are good at hiding their money-1st intentions.

 

[Nightman]

If the Cowboys land Earl Thomas, it will be a draft day trade that includes the Cowboys' 2nd round pick, plus other considerations on Friday of the draft weekend. The Cowboys will have to clear space, and negotiate a long-term deal with Thomas before the draft, but the trigger won't be pulled until draft day.

Draft day player trades are rare for a reason

Teams need to do physicals and negotiate new deals

if it gets done it will be before the Draft

 

[Verdict]

I agree with this, but there are exceptions.

Some players really care about their legacy in the game. Earl Thomas is one. He's headed to the Hall of Fame, and he won't want to taint that at the end without giving his all.

But generally, I agree.

Yes. And some players, like Jason Witten care more about his legacy than the team. I'll pass

 

[nightrain]

Earl Thomas is without question an elite player and a future HOFer. I have no doubt about his will to be the best he can be. The last two seasons he missed 5 and 2 games respectively after not missing a game in 6 years.

I can't see giving up a first day draft pick and then paying the guy Eric Berry type money (cause that is what he is going to want).

The Julius Peppers analogy is an extremely finite case study. There is no doubt exceptions out there and he has proven to be a freak of nature.


Eric Berry
Safety

• 2018 Salary Cap Charge: $13,000,000
• % of 2018 Team Cap: 7.30%
• 2018 Cash Payout: $9,000,000
• % of 2018 Team Cash Spending: 5.61%
• 2018 Cash to Cap Ratio: 0.69
• Total Contract Value: $78,000,000
• Annual Contract Value: $13,000,000
• Position Ranking: 0/138 at S
• Fully Guaranteed Money: $29,800,000

• Age: 29
• Height: 6' 0"
• Weight: 211
• College: Tennessee
• Accrued Seasons: 8
• Entry: 2010 Draft, Round 1, #5 overall (Chiefs)
• Year Signed: 2017
• Contract Type: UFA
• Free Agency: 2023 (UFA)