Saquon mania vs. Ezekiel facts

[RodeoJake]

Yea poupons

Fancy mustard on a hotdog?

 

[408Cowboy]

Lool.

“Hey guyz! I’m gonna do a QB comparison between Dak and the top QBs in the league! I’ll first start by arbitrarily removing any passing TD totals in excess of 25...”

Bet the irony gets lost

 

[Proof]

Lotta Giants fans in here. In statistics, to find the norm the outlying figures are often discarded because they can skew the results. Good work by the OP. That's not saying I'm not into some skewing.

I have no problem believing Zeke is the better back regardless of a compelling case built by saquon. Zekes my guy. This is just a bad set of criteria. I enjoyed reading it and appreciate the effort put into it though.

 

[FuzzyLumpkins]

For Saquon Barkley, long runs are not outliers. He had 9 40+ yard plays from scrimmage, the last guy to do that was 10 years ago when Chris Johnson was CJ2k. Elliot has 6 of those in his entire career.

That has nothing to do with the argument which concedes that Barkley is a better big play guy. The argument is that Elliott is better down in and down out.

You're saying that is not his only big plays but if we deduct those too the argument looks that much stronger. Barkley depends on big plays. Trying to sustain drives or finish games when 95% of your runs go for 3.2 yards a carry leads to punts and field goals.

 

[cowboybish]

Good write up! But if you notice the first 5 games Barkley didn't do as well but as the season went he got much better aside from a couple games. Reminds me of Zekes first season. It takes a rookie RB some time to get acclimated to the NFL. They are both great backs!

 

[FuzzyLumpkins]

Bet the irony gets lost

While everyone is whinging about the bias in and of itself, what's been consistently lost is the argument that the author is making about the bias. It's really pretty easy to see even for the layman. Doubly so for Cowboys fans who remember Emmitt and Sanders careers.

Spouting random biasing and conflating the two is pretty ignorant. Ironic even.

 

[beware_d-ware]

I understand the point of removing outlier runs, but as often as Barkley cracks them, they're not really outliers.

If Alfred Morris breaks one 70 yarder and then grinds out a bunch of 3 and 4 yard carries the rest of the season, it's fair to treat that one play as fluky. But to remove Barkley's nine biggest plays of the season is a different story.

 

[CalPolyTechnique]

That has nothing to do with the argument which concedes that Barkley is a better big play guy. The argument is that Elliott is better down in and down out.

You're saying that is not his only big plays but if we deduct those too the argument looks that much stronger. Barkley depends on big plays. Trying to sustain drives or finish games when 95% of your runs go for 3.2 yards a carry leads to punts and field goals.

To think each running backs production can be analyzed apart from his offensive line’s blocking or efficiency of his QB is moronic.

 

[kskboys]

Grinders are more conducive to winning in the playoffs. I think that's what the OP is trying to point out. I'd have to agree.

 

[FuzzyLumpkins]

To think each running backs production can be analyzed apart from his offensive line’s blocking or efficiency of his QB is moronic.

No one claimed that it did or didn't. Of course this is you flailing and with no substance to your claim anyway.

 

[CalPolyTechnique]

No one claimed that it did or didn't. Of course this is you flailing and with no substance to your claim anyway.

You did.

“Trying to sustain drives or finish games when 95% of your runs go for 3.2 yards a carry leads to punts and field goals.”

Do you know what a possessive pronoun is fuzzy wuzzy?

You should go find the hole you climbed out of again.

 

[PoetTree]

Questions for anyone to answer:

Who has the better Offensive line, Saquon or Zeke?

Last year? Tough to say. Overall, probably close to a push.

Remember that the Cowboys fired their offensive line coach at the midpoint of the season because things were. not. working. It didn't help that Zack Martin, our rock, badly sprained his MCL early in the season, kept playing at less than 100%, and aggravated the injury no less than three times during the season --ultimately forcing him to miss the first game of his career.

When he came off the field we welded undersized & under-strong Connor Williams at his RG spot, had Joe Looney at center, and 3rd-stringer Adam Redmond at LG.

Ezekiel Elliott ground out 113 yards in that contest; and it was that kind of crew for much of the season. Travis Frederick was missing all year. Tyron battled pectoral & biceps problems and Cam Fleming replaced him numerous times and for at least one whole game. Connor Williams was getting steamrolled. And Su'a-Filo, who had the strength to win in the run-game, kept missing games due to injury himself. The Dallas line was patchwork all season, right down to their coach...

But as for rankings, Pro Football Focus ranks Dallas' line @ 14 & the Giants' @ 21. But that's overall rankings and New York's weakness was pass-protection. When ranked by run-blocking alone, it's the Giants who come in @ 14 & Dallas @ 18.

As PFF says: 'Connor Williams and Joe Looney both earned grades under 60.0 last season.' Which is... not good.

When coupled with the fact that Zeke received even poorer blocking from the 3rd-string tight-end crew we had rotationally starting --seriously, watch the film: our tight-ends were getting Elliott KILLED-- I think it might be generous to suggest that the blocking for each back was a push. But I digress....

Who has the better QB to keep defenses from stacking the box, Giants or Cowboys?

Well, I'm going to answer your question in a relevantly re-contextualized way. Because it's not about who the "better" quarterback is, it's about how defenses played the running game in response to the quarterback; and while there's no doubt I'd take Dak over Eli, there's also no question that teams respected the veteran's ability to make the right read and hit the open man more than they did/do against Dak.

Zeke Elliott faced the highest loaded-box percentage of all the top-5 rushers, and one of the very highest in all the league --including when stacked up against 3rd-down & goal-line specialists. Defenses came to take away Zeke week-in & week-out. And we didn't even have a #1 receiver for squads to worry about for half the season. Even after that, defenses did not adjust their game-plan and #21 remained the key to Dallas' success or lack thereof...

Check this quote from Landon Collins last year:

“We really just have to focus on stopping Zeke. We need to make sure we’re playing our gap assignments and make sure we take the air out of their running game. Put the ball into Dak’s hands & I think we have a better shot at winning.”

Defenses played the Cowboys that way all season long.

Who statistically had the superior passing game in 2018, Giants or Cowboys?

Dak: 356-of-526 for 3,885 yards, 22 TDs, 8 Ints, 7.4 yards-per-completion

Eli: 380-of-576 for 4,299 yards, 21 TDs, 11 Ints, 7.5 yards-per-completion

Dak was more efficient.

Eli was more prolific.

You said Zeke had more first downs. Which running back had more runs on 2nd and short, 3rd and short? The guy with the good pass game or the guy with Eli?

I think the answers to the last two questions basically answer this one.

To address it more specifically: Saquon had more carries on 2nd-&-short, Zeke had more on 3rd-&-short. But it's the efficiency leading up to those "short" situations that my original post was aimed at fleshing out, so to speak...

On 1st-down, Barkley had: 157-carries for 739-yards, a 4.71-YPC average.

Conversely, Ezekiel had: 172-carries for 872-yards, a 5.07-YPC average.

Zeke was the better, more efficient runner on 1st-down, which is prevalently a run-down & when rushers are more likely to face a loaded-box. Again, Zeke faced more of those (and produced better against) than any other top-5 rusher in the league.

But in the spirit of my original post, and to highlight specifically who was the better runner across the broader number of carries (which was the point), if we subtract their single longest 1st-down run from the season this stat tells a more intricate story. Minus the yardage from that one run by them each, their 1st-down rushing stats become:

Saquon: 661-yards @ 4.23 yards-per-carry

Ezekiel: 831-yards @ 4.85 yards-per-carry

Zeke's yards-per-carry advantage over Barkley increases from an 0.36 average to 0.62 --nearly doubling. What does that mean? It means that over the greater number of carries, Zeke was consistently the bigger producer. When you take literally one "big-play" from them each, the disparity is almost twice as large.

The point of my post was to empirically demonstrate that Saquon Barkley, while incredible, is a back who lives or dies by the big-play and isn't as dominant on a down-to-down basis as Ezekiel Elliott. He may, indeed, be better at hitting the big-play with greater frequency, but his production outside of those statistically infrequent occasions can genuinely be considered pedestrian.

Again, I only subtracted 16 runs from a total of 261 he had on the season. That represents just 6.1% of his runs from 2018, but that 6% of his runs accounted for more than 40% of his total rushing yards --which is why, minus those 16 runs, his average drops from 5.0 to 3.19 yards-per-carry; hardly pro-bowl caliber.

The point was to make the case, in the face of those naming Barkley as the best back in the league, that the "excitement" he generates as a runner with his slippery, sliding, elusive style --does not equate to him being the league's best rusher, a title I believe rightly belongs to the back who has led the NFL in yards-per-game for 3 years straight & is literally on a Hall-of-Fame pace in that metric.

This superior proficiency by Zeke is demonstrated further when looking into their 4th-quarter stats when leading by 8+, a time when everyone knows the offense is running the ball and loads up to stop them:

Barkley: 39-carries for 123-yards @ 3.15 yards-per-carry

Elliott: 37-carries for 160-yards @ 4.32 yards-per-carry

Once again, if we subtract their lone longest run from that situational stat (merely to proffer my original point that Barkley is largely a "big-play" back, not a truly dominant every-down rusher) the disparity widens once more:

Saquon: 38-carries for 55-yards @ 1.44 yards-per-carry

Ezekiel: 36-carries for 137-yards @ 3.80 yards-per-carry


This basic premise can be proven when comparing virtually every single one of their stats. As I alluded in my original post, I had previously written a missive that broke down ALL of their stats --including receptions & total yards-- and this same trend can be found across all metrics, dating back to their collegiate careers.

Just because Saquon is good isn't a knock on Zeke. He's good too. But to make an argument severely lacking in context just to prop up Zeke and put down a Giant is bad form.

I think you're being melodramatic.

The context is not severely lacking, it's plainly stated throughout. My argument is that Zeke is a better every-down back than Barkley & I used empirical evidence to represent the factuality of that premise. I'm not propping anyone up or putting anyone down. I'm agnostically presenting statistics that reveal a deeper story than 16 "big-plays" can tell.

Also, why are we punishing Saquon for being a better downfield runner than Zeke? You actually came up with a stat that removes Saquon's big runs. Seriously?

I removed Zeke's big runs as well. It was an equal evaluation, designed simply to demonstrate which runner is more productive across the larger number of carries and the more varied set of circumstances. The answer is Elliott, by a lot.

That you find those stats insulting to Saquon, rather proves my point.


Cheers!

 

[FuzzyLumpkins]

You did.

“Trying to sustain drives or finish games when 95% of your runs go for 3.2 yards a carry leads to punts and field goals.”

Do you know what a possessive pronoun is fuzzy wuzzy?

You should go find the hole you climbed out of again.

Sure do and I was speaking to the reader to put them in the role of a team. Now please explain how speaking to the reader in that manner means that offensive line performance does or does not matter?

And of course you completely ignore that you have no actual substance to your flail. Typical.

 

[CalPolyTechnique]

Sure do and I was speaking to the reader to put them in the role of a team. Now please explain how speaking to the reader in that manner means that offensive line performance does or does not matter?

And of course you completely ignore that you have no actual substance to your flail. Typical.

Lol, shut up.

Do 95% of all runs by the Giants go for 3.2 YPC?

Oh, that’s right. You were talking specifically about Saquon whom is one of the two players (the other being Zeke) this thread is specifically about.

The thread isn’t about Cowboys o-line versus the Giants.

 

[Idgit]

Don’t use the word “deduct.” Use “isolate”. He’s looking at the pattern of productivity in the players’ carries and suggesting consistent production is more important than highly variable production in a game based on getting ten yards every three or four offensive plays.

 

[408Cowboy]

Don’t use the word “deduct.” Use “isolate”. He’s looking at the pattern of productivity in the players’ carries and suggesting consistent production is more important than highly variable production in a game based on getting ten yards every three or four offensive plays.

Don't spoil the fun man

 

[FuzzyLumpkins]

Lol, shut up.

Do 95% of all runs by the Giants go for 3.2 YPC?

Oh, that’s right. You were talking specifically about Saquon whom is one of the two players (the other being Zeke) this thread is specifically about.

The thread isn’t about Cowboys o-line versus the Giants.

You sure seem intent to fixate on the one issue you think you can win and ignore the rest. You looked particularly ignorant in the grammar smack earlier. Not very compelling, chachi. Maybe go for semantics next time you move the goalposts.

Who said anything about the Giants whole attack? The discussion is about Barkley and 96.4% of his runs are for that amount. 9 of 260 is a very small percentage of his run plays. that was the whole point of the use of "your." You're not having a good day.

Since you are intent on missing the forest for this particular tree I will spell it out for you. You cannot count on Barkley as a runner yet down in and down out because most of his runs are well below league average despite his knack for huge plays.

 

[Super_Kazuya]

Don’t use the word “deduct.” Use “isolate”. He’s looking at the pattern of productivity in the players’ carries and suggesting consistent production is more important than highly variable production in a game based on getting ten yards every three or four offensive plays.

I mean that’s what he thinks he’s doing but he’s failing miserably. Chopping off the top run out of every game makes no sense at all, they aren’t “outliers”.
Also a 60 yard Barkley TD that takes you from not even being in scoring position to 6 points is more valuable than a bunch of Zeke five yard runs that end in a punt when Dak air mails 3rd and 4 over Witten’s head. The premise is dopey.

 

[CalPolyTechnique]

You sure seem intent to fixate on the one issue you think you can win and ignore the rest. You looked particularly ignorant in the grammar smack earlier. Not very compelling, chachi. Maybe go for semantics next time you move the goalposts.

Who said anything about the Giants whole attack? The discussion is about Barkley and 96.4% of his runs are for that amount. 9 of 260 is a very small percentage of his run plays. that was the whole point of the use of "your." You're not having a good day.

Since you are intent on missing the forest for this particular tree I will spell it out for you. You cannot count on Barkley as a runner yet down in and down out because most of his runs are well below league average despite his knack for huge plays.

“Who said anything about the Giants whole attack?”

You did. Post #50 and #53

Let me guess....”ugh, when I say ‘you can’t count on Barkley’ I’m speaking to the reader putting them in role of the team.”

 

[JoeKing]

Listen, I get it, Saquon Barkley is a freak athlete, a really nice guy, and a big-play waiting to happen. I think he proved himself as the best big-play specialist in the NFL last year and I suspect that will continue into 2019. But, as I have been for this very same reason since he was in college, I'm tapping the brakes on crowning him the best running back in the league --as much of the rest of the sports world is already doing.

I did a breakdown after the season, as I had done for their respective college seasons before Barkley went pro, detailing what their stats look like when you subtract their single biggest run or play from each game of a singular season. Just one per contest. The results, factoring in receptions as well, confirmed my observation that Barkley is a back who lives & dies by the big-play --but is not the every-down runner yet (including collegiately) that you expect a "great" to be.

For this missive, I'll focus only on their rushing totals --although it's equally applicable to their receiving stats as well. But I've got a buddy who says, "Zeke is the best guy in the league to just turn around & hand the ball to." I think this breakdown demonstrates that quite clearly.

So, for posterity, Zeke & Saquon's "rushing" totals for 2018 were:


Saquon Barkley -- 261 carries, 1,307 yards, 5.0 yards-per-carry

Ezekiel Elliott -- 304 carries, 1,434 yards, 4.7 yards-per-carry


However, when you subtract their single biggest run from each game (as I've done for the following stats), this comparison turns very different:


Saquon Barkley -- 245 carries, 783 yards, 3.19 yards-per-carry

Ezekiel Elliott -- 289 carries, 1,199 yards, 4.14 yards-per-carry


The disparity is astonishing. Remove just 16 runs from Barkley's season (out of 261) and he drops a *WHOPPING* 524 yards from his total! Conversely, when you take away Zeke's longest run from each game, his total drops only 235 yards.

To put it another way:

Saquon averaged 32.75 yards on only 16 carries of the season.

And he averaged 3.19 yards-per-carry over the remaining 245!

Over the course of the season, without those 16 "long" runs Barkley's average plummets from a robust 5.0 to a paltry 3.19 per-carry (almost 2 full yards less). Zeke, on the other hand, minus his best run from each contest, falls from a 4.7-yard average to a still respectable 4.14 yards-per-carry.

For even greater perspective, if you subtract Elliott's best run from every game he still would have finished 3rd in the league in rushing. When you take away Barkley's longest runs, however, he drops from 2nd in the league in rushing all the way down to 23rd --

That is a precipitous plummet!


But while I believe those stats alone clearly distinguish Zeke as the better runner on a down-to-down basis, by a lot, and likewise demonstrate Barkley as the better big-play back, it's not until it's broken down on a game-by-game basis that the vivid difference in their contributions to their team's offensive success becomes perfectly clear. So we're going to take a more microcosmic look at this parallel to bear out the conclusion that Ezekiel Elliott remains, quite simply, the very best running back in the NFL.


So the way I'll do this for greatest visual appeal is to list their rushing totals per-week MINUS both back's single biggest run from each game. The effect is really quite eye-popping:


Week 1 --

Saquon: 17 carries, 38 yards, 2.23 YPC

Ezekiel: 14 carries, 52 yards, 3.71 YPC


Week 2 --

Saquon: 10 carries, 18 yards, 1.80 YPC

Ezekiel: 16 carries, 59 yards, 3.68 YPC


Week 3 --

Saquon: 16 carries, 58 yards, 3.62 YPC

Ezekiel: 15 carries, 101 yards, 6.73 YPC


Week 4 --

Saquon: 9 carries, 16 yards, 1.77 YPC

Ezekiel: 24 carries, 111 yards, 4.62 YPC


Week 5 --

Saquon: 14 carries, 18 yards, 1.28 YPC

Ezekiel: 19 carries, 40 yards, 2.10 YPC


Week 6 --

Saquon: 12 carries, 80 yards, 6.66 YPC

Ezekiel: 23 carries, 85 yards, 3.69 YPC


Week 7 --

Saquon: 13 carries, 28 yards, 2.15 YPC

Ezekiel: 14 carries, 27 yards, 1.92 YPC


Week 8 --

Saquon: 12 carries, 29 yards, 2.41 YPC

Ezekiel: 16 carries, 44 yards, 2.75 YPC


Week 9 --

Saquon: 19 carries, 49 yards, 2.57 YPC

Ezekiel: 18 carries, 116 yards, 6.44 YPC


Week 10 --

Saquon: 26 carries, 119 yards, 4.57 YPC

Ezekiel: 22 carries, 99 yards, 4.50 YPC


Week 11 --

Saquon: 12 carries, 50 yards, 4.16 YPC

Ezekiel: 25 carries, 105 yards, 4.20 YPC


Week 12 --

Saquon: 23 carries, 96 yards, 4.17 YPC

Ezekiel: 22 carries, 54 yards, 2.45 YPC


Week 13 --

Saquon: 13 carries, 92 yards, 7.07 YPC

Ezekiel: 27 carries, 93 yards, 3.44 YPC


Week 14 --

Saquon: 13 carries, 14 yards, 1.07 YPC

Ezekiel: 17 carries, 63 yards, 3.70 YPC


Week 15 --

Saquon: 20 carries, 37 yards, 1.85 YPC

Ezekiel: 17 carries, 68 yards, 4.00 YPC


Week 16 --

Saquon: 16 carries, 41 yards, 2.56 YPC

Ezekiel: Did-Not-Play


So out of 15 games, side-by-side, subtracting their single longest runs from each contest, Zeke had a higher yards-per-carry than Saquon in 10 of those contests, outpacing Barkley by an average of: 1.48, 1.88, 3.11, 2.85, 0.82, 0.34, 3.87, 0.04, 2.63, and 2.16 yards-per-carry.

Accumulatively, those 10 games amount to --


Saquon: 142 carries, 469 yards, 3.30 YPC

Ezekiel: 168 carries, 759 yards, 4.51 YPC


Minus their one longest run from each of those games, it's clear that Zeke was the far more productive, effective, consistent back across 2/3rds of the season and a vaster number of carries. Conversely, in the 5 games Barkley outdid Zeke, the stats are:


Saquon: 87 carries, 415 yards, 4.77 YPC

Ezekiel: 108 carries, 358 yards, 3.61 YPC


So for 5 games out of the season, minus their big runs, Saquon averaged 1.16 yards-per-carry more than Zeke --out-rushing him by 57 yards across those 5 games.

For 10 games out of the season, minus their big runs, Zeke averaged 1.20 yards-per-carry more than Saquon --out-rushing him by 290 yards across those 10 games.

Over the course of the season, minus their big runs, that amounts to 457 more rushing yards for Zeke and nearly 1 full yard-per-carry (0.95) greater.


If we pit their 16th game of the season against one another (Week 16 for Saquon, Week 1 of the Playoffs for Zeke), again, subtracting their single biggest run from each game --


Saquon: 16 carries, 41 yards, 2.56 YPC

Ezekiel: 25 carries, 93 yards, 3.72 YPC


Consistently, Elliott demonstrates that he is the more productive runner, by quite a bit, across the far broader number and circumstances of their respective carries. Barkley may indeed be the better home-run hitter. But there's no question that Zeke is out there getting the dirty yards, the needed yards, Saquon is leaving on the field; and the fortunes of their teams in 2018 each reflect the natural result of that:


RECORDS --

Cowboys: 10-6

Giants: 5-11


This is also assessed in the fact that Zeke picked up 73 first-downs, to Saquon's 50, in one fewer game.

That's 69 more downs of offense that Zeke's legs provided for his team than Barkley did for his.


Saquon had 5 more runs of 20+ yards than Zeke (16-to-11) & 6 more runs of 40+ yards (7-to-1).

Which do you think a coach who wants to win would prefer, 11 more "explosive" plays on the season, or 69 more offensive snaps? And this whole query instantly makes me think of Emmitt Smith vs. Barry Sanders, because like I predicted before the season, the Zeke/Saquon rivalry is shaping up very much like the old debate between those greats!

Saquon, like Sanders (his idol), is the best big-play threat in the league.

Ezekiel, like Emmitt, is the best running back in the league.


Of course, this contest isn't remotely over. But in all the metrics we can currently assess, college & the pros, this is who these backs have proven themselves to be, consistently. It's extraordinary how much their college production mirrors their NFL performances. I strongly suspect this will continue, and I don't think we've seen either of their bests.

Athletically, this season should display the very best Ezekiel Elliott the world has ever seen. He is now a young 23 years old and is likely fully grown. Word is he's in the best shape of his life, has gone from 225lbs. in his rookie year (when he was the youngest player in the league) to a manly 230lbs. this offseason.

I believe we're about to see the biggest, strongest, and fastest Ezekiel Elliott there has ever been.

And it might just be a perfect storm regarding the physical maturation of his ability being paired with all the talent surrounding him. There's no question in my mind that Zeke is coming into the best situation for a running back in the NFL to produce at a big-time level. Barkley is certain to have more than 15-minutes of fame. But when, not if, Elliott leads the NFL in rushing again, maybe to unprecedented degrees, people are going to have to start acknowledging that #21 is the #1 runner in the league.


--yeah, even if Barkley has more "big-plays" on the season.

Take those away, and Barkley is over 40% less of a running back.

Kid's got to show me some things before he's in the same breath with Zeke...

I don't get your need to manipulate the numbers so that Saquon doesn't get credit for his best run each game. There is room for both of these guys in the league. Zeke is the undisputed yards rushing leader, so why feel threatened by a divisional opponent that earned every yard he ran and still didn't eclipse the rushing yardage of Zeke. Stop manipulating the numbers and just let every yard count for each player. Zeke is clearly the king of the RBs. If there is a season someday that Saquon runs for more yards, then that's okay too.