Deep Passing Stats 2017

[xwalker]

2017 Passes of 16+ Air Yards

Dak had good accuracy on deep passes.
Cowboys Receivers were not good at catching deep passes.

Dak Prescott
ACC%: 2nd
Completion Percentage adjusted for Receiver Drops.

Least Deep Pass INTs: Tied for 1st

CMP%: 8th
Completion Percentage.

Accuracy on Play Action: 1st
Accuracy under pressure: 4th
Accuracy Tight Window: 6th

Dak/Cowboys-Receivers
ACC INC%: 11th
Accurate Passes Dropped
Only 10 QBs had receivers drop more accurate passes.

INACC%: Tied For Last
Inaccurate Passes Completed
Cowboys receivers didn't catch any inaccurate deep passes.



Definitions:
INACC: Accurate Incompletions.
Accurate Pass by QB that the receiver didn't catch.

ACC INC: Inaccurate Completions
Completions when the QB was not accurate.

ACC%: Completion Percentage Adjusted for Receiver Drops.

 

[Yobwocs]

It's clear at this point. Even in his worst year, his deep ball is rated among the highest. Dak is a deep ball oriented passer.

The only reason his passing yards are so low is because Zeke chews up most of the short yardage. He doesn't dink and dunk as much as most of the QBs - and moreso the ones who don't have a run based offense will get their yards from their QB most of all. All those dink and dunk yards and screen passes that go for run for 25 yards after the catch are the ones missing from his total passing yards count.


Here, look..... another 2017 stat. It also proved the type of offense that we had if anybody listened to that analysis.

 

[sean10mm]

Many Cowboys fans start from the premise that if the team didn't win the Super Bowl, the quarterback had to be a bum. Everything they say is just them trying to rationalize a conclusion they already made after the fact. Presenting contradictory evidence, no matter how good it is, just makes them dig in harder.

 

[CalPolyTechnique]

2017 Passes of 16+ Air Yards

Dak had good accuracy on deep passes.
Cowboys Receivers were not good at catching deep passes.

Dak Prescott
ACC%: 2nd
Completion Percentage adjusted for Receiver Drops.

Least Deep Pass INTs: Tied for 1st

CMP%: 8th
Completion Percentage.

Accuracy on Play Action: 1st
Accuracy under pressure: 4th
Accuracy Tight Window: 6th

Dak/Cowboys-Receivers
ACC INC%: 11th
Accurate Passes Dropped
Only 10 QBs had receivers drop more accurate passes.

INACC%: Tied For Last
Inaccurate Passes Completed
Cowboys receivers didn't catch any inaccurate deep passes.



Definitions:
INACC: Accurate Incompletions.
Accurate Pass by QB that the receiver didn't catch.

ACC INC: Inaccurate Completions
Completions when the QB was not accurate.

ACC%: Completion Percentage Adjusted for Receiver Drops.

Where are these stats from?

 

[xwalker]

Where are these stats from?

footballoutsiders

 

[CalPolyTechnique]

So 16 or even 20 yards is a “deep pass?”

The metric is bunk.

 

[xwalker]

So 16 or even 20 yards is a “deep pass?”

The metric is bunk.

No, over 16 or over 20 yards includes all passes longer than 16 or 20 yards in the air.

A 16 yard or longer pass is definitely not in the dink and dunk category.

Sample Size starts to get too small to be very meaningful if the cut-off is 30 yards.
Brady had 5 completions over 30 air yards in 2018.
Dak had 7 completions over 30 air yards in 2018.

Dak was 9th on passes that gained 35 or more yards in 2018.

 

[DasSchnitzel]

So 16 or even 20 yards is a “deep pass?”

The metric is bunk.

I think 16 yards end-to-end would be a medium pass, 20 end-to-end would be on the verge of a deep pass.

16 to 20 air yards starts sounding more like a deep play and 20+ definitely does, in my opinion.

In any event it feels like this is a tangent. The precise definition of air yards required to be a "deep pass" doesnt feel consequential here. At 16 or 20+ air yards you're throwing it far enough that you're pushing the ball way down field with the QB's arm, and that's what is really being discussed here, not some gatekeeping definition.

 

[Toruk_Makto]

It's clear at this point. Even in his worst year, his deep ball is rated among the highest. Dak is a deep ball oriented passer.

The only reason his passing yards are so low is because Zeke chews up most of the short yardage. He doesn't dink and dunk as much as most of the QBs - and moreso the ones who don't have a run based offense will get their yards from their QB most of all. All those dink and dunk yards and screen passes that go for run for 25 yards after the catch are the ones missing from his total passing yards count.


Here, look..... another 2017 stat. It also proved the type of offense that we had if anybody listened to that analysis.

Dak is not "deep ball oriented"

If he was he wouldn't have such a high percentage of his throws be 15 yards and in.

 

[Yobwocs]

Dak is not "deep ball oriented"

If he was he wouldn't have such a high percentage of his throws be 15 yards and in.

It's even more for other highly regarded QBs.

 

[xwalker]

I think 16 yards end-to-end would be a medium pass, 20 end-to-end would be on the verge of a deep pass.

16 to 20 air yards starts sounding more like a deep play and 20+ definitely does, in my opinion.

In any event it feels like this is a tangent. The precise definition of air yards required to be a "deep pass" doesnt feel consequential here. At 16 or 20+ air yards you're throwing it far enough that you're pushing the ball way down field with the QB's arm, and that's what is really being discussed here, not some gatekeeping definition.

Just to be clear, it's 16 or 20 yards from the line of scrimmage.

The distance from the QB to the WR is longer.

 

[Toruk_Makto]

It's even more for other highly regarded QBs.

Nothing you wrote disregards saying Dak is deep ball oriented is a ridiculous fallacy.

 

[Eanwen]

Just to be clear, it's 16 or 20 yards from the line of scrimmage.

The distance from the QB to the WR is longer.

I don't think that's clear. Saying "16 or 20" makes me think one is counting all 16+ pass plays (in which case adding the "or 20 yds" unnecessary) or sometimes someone counts 16+ and at other times 20+,(which would be ridiculous).

 

[Kevinicus]

It's clear at this point. Even in his worst year, his deep ball is rated among the highest. Dak is a deep ball oriented passer.

The only reason his passing yards are so low is because Zeke chews up most of the short yardage. He doesn't dink and dunk as much as most of the QBs - and moreso the ones who don't have a run based offense will get their yards from their QB most of all. All those dink and dunk yards and screen passes that go for run for 25 yards after the catch are the ones missing from his total passing yards count.


Here, look..... another 2017 stat. It also proved the type of offense that we had if anybody listened to that analysis.

The tight window throw stat is bunk. It rewards a QB for being late with the ball and allowing the defender to close. It also butchers the concept of a tight window throw as anyone with a clue about football knows they are about more than the window between the receiver and the closest defender.

 

[CalPolyTechnique]

No, over 16 or over 20 yards includes all passes longer than 16 or 20 yards in the air.

A 16 yard or longer pass is definitely not in the dink and dunk category.

Sample Size starts to get too small to be very meaningful if the cut-off is 30 yards.
Brady had 5 completions over 30 air yards in 2018.
Dak had 7 completions over 30 air yards in 2018.

Dak was 9th on passes that gained 35 or more yards in 2018.

Passes aren’t don’t break down into just two categories (dink & dunk vs. deep); 16-20 yards is a grey area, but it’s not deep.

If a 16 yard pass is considered “deep,” then what is 50 yard pass?

16 yards (or even 20 yards) is way too short to try and include as “deep passes.”

You’re saying the sample size gets too small for passes 30 yards or more but you’re only looking at completions.

Why aren’t you including total attempts? That would increase the total number of passes being analyzed.

 

[CalPolyTechnique]

I think 16 yards end-to-end would be a medium pass, 20 end-to-end would be on the verge of a deep pass.

16 to 20 air yards starts sounding more like a deep play and 20+ definitely does, in my opinion.

In any event it feels like this is a tangent. The precise definition of air yards required to be a "deep pass" doesnt feel consequential here. At 16 or 20+ air yards you're throwing it far enough that you're pushing the ball way down field with the QB's arm, and that's what is really being discussed here, not some gatekeeping definition.

Yeah, 16-20 yards isn’t a deep pass. I would say passes 25-30 yards or greater are deep passes.

If someone is trying to analyze a QB’s proficiency at completing deep passes/throws, looking at 16-20 yard passes only screws the analysis.

It’s like trying to determine which running back makes the most “big plays” and then looking at runs of just 10+ yards.

 

[xwalker]

Passes aren’t don’t break down into just two categories (dink & dunk vs. deep); 16-20 yards is a grey area, but it’s not deep.

If a 16 yard pass is considered “deep,” then what is 50 yard pass?

16 yards (or even 20 yards) is way too short to try and include as “deep passes.”

You’re saying the sample size gets too small for passes 30 yards or more but you’re only looking at completions.

Why aren’t you including total attempts? That would increase the total number of passes being analyzed.

It does not matter what label is given to the data. The 20+ air yards pass data is just that, 20+ yards. It does not matter if it's called deep or intermediate and deep. The primary issue is that it's not short. Maybe the label should be NOT SHORT passes.

For NFL QBs that area around 16 to 25 yards is more important as a skill. QBs like Kellen Moore can throw lofted deep passes or short passes but a 20 yard out is what coaches/scouts often focus on when scouting potential draft picks. Moore just didn't have the arm for throwing 20 yard outs consistently in the NFL because those can't "hang" in the air.

Targets and completions scale together.

The problem with the smaller sample sizes is that the results can be significantly skewed if the cutoff is 29 yards vs 30 yards vs 31 yards, etc..

Looking at 50+ yard air pass data would be worthless just like a set of data that I've seen that has it broken down into 5 yard increments. That data has Dak as #1 in 31-35 yard pass completion percentage. The problem is that he only threw 1 pass in that range for that year.

I really only answer this because other people will read it. I know that you actually have no real interest in the subject and are just trolling in an attempt to find fault with my posts and somehow improve your own self-esteem without actually contributing anything.

 

[Bigdog]

I rather him being 1st in Super Bowl wins and hope he can do that. I am pulling for him. I like Dat. I get where you are going and appreciate you bringing us these stats.

 

[CalPolyTechnique]

It does not matter what label is given to the data. The 20+ air yards pass data is just that, 20+ yards. It does not matter if it's called deep or intermediate and deep. The primary issue is that it's not short. Maybe the label should be NOT SHORT passes.

For NFL QBs that area around 16 to 25 yards is more important as a skill. QBs like Kellen Moore can throw lofted deep passes or short passes but a 20 yard out is what coaches/scouts often focus on when scouting potential draft picks. Moore just didn't have the arm for throwing 20 yard outs consistently in the NFL because those can't "hang" in the air.

Targets and completions scale together.

The problem with the smaller sample sizes is that the results can be significantly skewed if the cutoff is 29 yards vs 30 yards vs 31 yards, etc..

Looking at 50+ yard air pass data would be worthless just like a set of data that I've seen that has it broken down into 5 yard increments. That data has Dak as #1 in 31-35 yard pass completion percentage. The problem is that he only threw 1 pass in that range for that year.

I really only answer this because other people will read it. I know that you actually have no real interest in the subject and are just trolling in an attempt to find fault with my posts and somehow improve your own self-esteem without actually contributing anything.

It actually does matter because words provide the context of the analysis you’re presenting.

Maybe you’re feeling picked on because you’re always skewing and twisting the data to fit your chosen narrative and I’m there to call you out on it?

The fact it has to be explained to you that you should not just look at the number of completions but also the total number of attempts in trying to create an adequate sample size is laughable.

The title of this thread is a complete misnomer (“Deep Passing Stats...”) if you include passes in the analysis that aren’t deep at all.

“Dak drops back....looks for Cooper, rears back and throws a DEEEEEEEEP 16-yard bomb for the first down!!!!”

I can almost guarantee you looked at the data breakdown and kept changing the yardage parameters until you got to 16+ yard passes, all so you could say “See!!! Dak really is good at throwing the ‘deep’ ball.”

 

[xwalker]

Maybe you’re feeling picked on because you’re always skewing and twisting the data to fit your chosen narrative and I’m there to call you out on it?

The fact it has to be explained to you that you should not just look at the number of completions but also the total number of attempts in trying to create an adequate sample size is laughable.

The title of this thread is a complete misnomer (“Deep Passing Stats...”) if you include passes in the analysis that aren’t deep at all.

“Dak drops back....looks for Cooper, rears back and throws a DEEEEEEEEP 16-yard bomb for the first down!!!!”

I can almost guarantee you looked at the data breakdown and kept changing the yardage parameters until you got to 16+ yard passes, all so you could say “See!!! Dak really is good at throwing the ‘deep’ ball.”

I didn't generate the data or choose the 16 or 20 yard cutoff points. If you had paid attention you would know that.

You lack self-awareness to realize that everyone was laughing at your past desperate attempts to find fault with my posts.