Verdict
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I have been pondering this issue for some time. As I see it, from Dak’s point of view, what is his real risk of loss if he signs now, vs. waiting until after this year. Here is some of his risk, although something unforeseen can happen:
1. He suffers catastrophic injury (career ending)
2. He suffers substantial, but not career ending injury
3. He gets exposed for not being as good as perceived now.
4. The market dynamic changes and there is downward pressure on the market.
5. Unknown factors
Dak “could” conceivably play on his current contract and insure himself for catastrophic injury, but I have no idea what that might cost. The policy cost may be more than he would make this year. He would also have to consider the cost of that policy vs any increase he may get next year.
If #2 happens, what would he lose and would his insurance policy cover it?
#3 Is a significant risk of loss because it is largely subjective. Let’s suppose Zeke holds out and the Cowboys don’t perform well with Kellen Moore as OC. How much could that affect Dak’s market. This might be his biggest risk.
If #4 happens, he would have zero control over it. The NFL could be rocked by scandal and fans could go a different direction. Downward pressure is almost a certainty at some point.
Concussion issues etc. can come into play regarding the market as well. Moreover, the owners hold all the cards, ultimately, in player negotiations. There are a lot of ways for the players to get “pencil whipped” by the owners in the same way that Tiger Woods can’t beat me in golf if I’m keeping score.
#5 There is always unknown risk. He could hold out and if everything goes well he may be holding all the cards. But if he gambles, and misses, he misses out on a life changing pay day. That’s a pretty big pill to swallow. He wasn’t paid money like Tank was. He has been drawing Walmart wages for the entirety of his contract.
1. He suffers catastrophic injury (career ending)
2. He suffers substantial, but not career ending injury
3. He gets exposed for not being as good as perceived now.
4. The market dynamic changes and there is downward pressure on the market.
5. Unknown factors
Dak “could” conceivably play on his current contract and insure himself for catastrophic injury, but I have no idea what that might cost. The policy cost may be more than he would make this year. He would also have to consider the cost of that policy vs any increase he may get next year.
If #2 happens, what would he lose and would his insurance policy cover it?
#3 Is a significant risk of loss because it is largely subjective. Let’s suppose Zeke holds out and the Cowboys don’t perform well with Kellen Moore as OC. How much could that affect Dak’s market. This might be his biggest risk.
If #4 happens, he would have zero control over it. The NFL could be rocked by scandal and fans could go a different direction. Downward pressure is almost a certainty at some point.
Concussion issues etc. can come into play regarding the market as well. Moreover, the owners hold all the cards, ultimately, in player negotiations. There are a lot of ways for the players to get “pencil whipped” by the owners in the same way that Tiger Woods can’t beat me in golf if I’m keeping score.
#5 There is always unknown risk. He could hold out and if everything goes well he may be holding all the cards. But if he gambles, and misses, he misses out on a life changing pay day. That’s a pretty big pill to swallow. He wasn’t paid money like Tank was. He has been drawing Walmart wages for the entirety of his contract.
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