The biggest thing that frustrates me is that our bust rate would be near zero if we just stuck to the formula in the first two rounds
-Freak athlete
-Power 5 school
-Doesn't suck at playing football.
If you look at McClay, he's been following these guidelines. Look at the guys he wanted in past drafts, and the guys we ended up with instead.
-TJ Watt 1st round 2017 (Wisconsin/95th percentile athlete/12 sacks in his first year at OLB). We drafted Taco (failed the athleticism test; 47th percentile athlete) instead because of Marinelli.
-Justin Reid 2nd round 2018 (Stanford/95th percentile/1st team All-Pac 12). We drafted Connor Williams instead (failed the athleticism test; 68th percentile athlete) because Jerry was still shellshocked by Garrett's mismanagement of Chaz Green in the Atlanta game.
-Juan Thornhill 2nd round 2019 (Virginia/98th percentile athlete/1st team all ACC) over Trysten Hill (failed the "sucks at playing football" test; 3 sacks his senior year and rode the pine half the time), because Marinelli talked them into it again.
We still would have missed on Chido using that formula (Colorado/88th percentile athlete/2x second-team PAC 12 with pretty good tape), but the hit rate following those guidelines is outstanding.
Heck, look at McClay's reputed 1st round short list for the 2018 draft:
Vita Vea (Washington, 1st team all Pac 12, didn't do enough Combine drills to qualify for a SPARQ score, but playing on UW's punt coverage team at 340 lbs is good enough to check the "freak athlete" box for me).
LVE (Boise State is big enough, 97th percentile athlete, 1st team All Mountain West in his 1st year starting and ended the universe in the Oregon bowl game).
DJ Moore (Maryland, 97th percentile athlete, had 1,000 receiving yards in his last year with literally 8 different QBs).
All of those guys have proven that they can not just be good at the NFL level, but be absolute studs. LVE's sophomore year obviously didn't go the way we wanted, but his rookie year proved he's got All-Pro talent. Vea started slow, but he is top 10 in Pass Rush Win Rate among DTs and is a USDA certified Bad Dude against the run. DJ Moore is 4th in the league in receiving yards with Kyle Allen throwing him the football.
So if anything, I think the FO is even better at drafting than most fans realize. Most of their misses occur when they are talked out of their guys by our questionable coaching staff.