2021 Comp Pick Prediction Tracker

Creeper

Creeper

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I see a 3rd rounder for Jones, but Cobb is definitely a 5th rounder at most. Quinn is probably a 4th round com pick assuming the Cowboys do not sign their own free agents. Of course Quinn and Cobb go on to make All-Pro it could change this.

In any case, comp picks are unlikely to produce players of the same caliber as Jones and Quinn.
 
Kaiser

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SeanLee50 said:
Defense will be bad this year. Hope the comp picks next year are worth it
Click to expand...

Add L'Lavon Chaisson, a #2 pick at CB, Desmond Trufant and a good FA DT and the team is better than last year with plenty of salary cap space to spend on other players.
 
ksg811

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These are my projected compensatory picks for 2021 for players lost/gained during this free agent cycle. My projections are based off my knowledge of the formula as stated in the CBA and historical precedent.

Free agents gained/loss cancel out if they are the same round, and work down before cancelling upwards. There are a maximum of 32 total comp picks awarded per year, with a max of 4 per team.

For example:

Gained(players signed)
3rd round
5th round

Lost(players lost)
3rd
4th
7th

In this example, the 2 3rd round picks cancel out. Since there is no offsetting 5th round pick lost, it cancels out downward to the 7th, leaving the 4th round compensatory pick gained for the 2021 draft.

Cowboys Comp pick Formula

Gained:
The Cowboys have not yet signed any compensatory Free agents

Lost:

Byron Jones - $16.5m AAV - 3rd round
Robert Quinn - $14m AAV - 3rd round
Randall Cobb - $9m AAV - 5th round

I will continue to update as free agency continues.
 
SSoup

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Maybe the value of Quinn's and Cobb's contracts would have fetched that amount previously, but I don't think they're going to end up being sufficiently top-tier contracts this offseason to bring us a 3rd and a 4th.

Maybe I'm wrong. I'd love to be wrong. But I'm skeptical. Or maybe pessimistic is a better word for it. A 3rd, a 4th, and a 5th sounds less like pie in the sky to hope for than two 3rd's and a 4th.
 
big dog cowboy

big dog cowboy

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Avery said:
Hi all,

Though comp picks are still in motion and will continue to be until next year, here's where are our current FA's are sitting for compensation courtesy of OTC:

https://overthecap.com/compensatory-draft-picks-cancellation-chart/

Byron Jones - 3rd rounder
Robert Quinn - 3rd rounder
Randall Cobb - 4th rounder
Click to expand...
giphy.gif
 
12+88=7

12+88=7

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Common Sense said:
In order to get these comp picks, they'd almost have to sit out free agency in any meaningful way. The only high-priced players they could acquire are from cuts or trades. Personally, I think that's a pretty interesting strategy, but we'll see if the Bubbas actually follow it.
Click to expand...

The last big free agent signing that Dallas had was Brandon Carr in 2012. I think this philosophy will continue this year.

Dallas likes to wait out the first week of free agency and then scoop up bargain free agents that are stop gaps till a player is drafted to replace them.

It's a good strategy to build through the draft and use free agency to fill roster spots in the short term.
 
ultron

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Good stuff ksg, I think people often forget (or don’t know) we drafted Dak with a 4th round compensatory pick; however, they have a lot of work to do filling this roster so idk if they’ll really walk away with any of these comp picks. We shall see.
 
SSoup

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If the contracts handed out (around the league in general) end up being big enough, is the Quinn deal likely to remain in the 3rd round tier or does it slide down to being a 4th once it's no longer a relatively top-tier payday? I'm not sure how that works, if the bar for what amount qualifies for which round remains static based on prior free agency figures or if they adjust it dynamically based on the current free agent class contracts.

The fact that there are several "name" QBs who will sign deals that blow up the curve a little bit makes me wonder if Byron will end up being a low 3rd comp and Quinn's pick might slide down and be towards the top of the 4th comps handed out instead of remaining up there with the 3's.
 
ksg811

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SSoup said:
If the contracts handed out (around the league in general) end up being big enough, is the Quinn deal likely to remain in the 3rd round tier or does it slide down to being a 4th once it's no longer a relatively top-tier payday? I'm not sure how that works, if the bar for what amount qualifies for which round remains static based on prior free agency figures or if they adjust it dynamically based on the current free agent class contracts.

The fact that there are several "name" QBs who will sign deals that blow up the curve a little bit makes me wonder if Byron will end up being a low 3rd comp and Quinn's pick might slide down and be towards the top of the 4th comps handed out instead of remaining up there with the 3's.
Click to expand...

There’s definite possibility Quinn’s gets dropped to a 4th, but at the moment he’s still a 3rd. It’s exactly why Cobb is only a 5th when $9m was firmly a 4th last year. Quinn is teetering on the 3/4 line. If I had to make a final prediction now, I do think he ends up dropping to a 4th.
 
SSoup

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ksg811 said:
There’s definite possibility Quinn’s gets dropped to a 4th, but at the moment he’s still a 3rd. It’s exactly why Cobb is only a 5th when $9m was firmly a 4th last year. Quinn is teetering on the 3/4 line. If I had to make a final prediction now, I do think he ends up dropping to a 4th.
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Thanks.

Also... I'm pretty sure players who have already played 10 years are capped at fetching their team a 5th rounder. So if some of the curve-busting contracts are old timers who don't qualify for 3rd rounders, do you think that plays in Quinn's favor for staying in the 3rd round? Or do you think they still count those contracts against Quinn's, relatively, making it more likely he drops down despite the other guys not being eligible for 3rd round picks?
 
ksg811

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SSoup said:
Thanks.

Also... I'm pretty sure players who have already played 10 years are capped at fetching their team a 5th rounder. So if some of the curve-busting contracts are old timers who don't qualify for 3rd rounders, do you think that plays in Quinn's favor for staying in the 3rd round? Or do you think they still count those contracts against Quinn's, relatively, making it more likely he drops down despite the other guys not being eligible for 3rd round picks?
Click to expand...

There’s a QB exclusion to this rule. Quarterbacks, regardless of accrued seasons count at their AAV slot, so Brady and Rivers will both be 3rd round comp picks.

To answer your overall question though, no it won’t make a difference. The key component to the comp pick formula is AAV, more specifically where it lands amongst league ranks, not compensatory free agents.
 
ak47kaehu

ak47kaehu

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So far the Cowboys have lost B. Jones, R. Quinn, and R. Cobb and they've all signed pretty good sized contracts. Do the Cowboys get comp picks in the 2021 draft for each of these players? How does this work again?
 
big dog cowboy

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12+88=7 said:
The last big free agent signing that Dallas had was Brandon Carr in 2012. I think this philosophy will continue this year.
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It will continue into the future. The Jones clam saw what happened why they gave out big deals. They finally learned it's not worth it.
 
Common Sense

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12+88=7 said:
The last big free agent signing that Dallas had was Brandon Carr in 2012. I think this philosophy will continue this year.

Dallas likes to wait out the first week of free agency and then scoop up bargain free agents that are stop gaps till a player is drafted to replace them.

It's a good strategy to build through the draft and use free agency to fill roster spots in the short term.
Click to expand...

It works if you stockpile draft picks, but Dallas doesn't do that so they end up with gaping holes in their roster every single year. You can't build a roster adding one or two impact players a year when you typically lose more than that in free agency. It's just basic math.
 
SSoup

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big dog cowboy said:
It will continue into the future. The Jones clam saw what happened why they gave out big deals. They finally learned it's not worth it.
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I mean, yes and no.

We still tried to land Sammy Watkins as recently as the 2018 offseason. We dodged a bullet not being the ones on the hook paying him $16M per year with the measly production he's managed.
 
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