NFL All-Time Passer Rating Leaders - time adjusted

Fastpitch Dad · May 9, 2020

mattjames2010 said:
Young's 1994 season, in my humble opinion, is the greatest season a QB has had in NFL history. I think he was the perfect QB outside of the injuries.

As much as it pains me I have to agree.

Fastpitch Dad · May 9, 2020

Jumbo075 said:
I remember watching Bert Jones play for the Baltimore Colts. He was Elway BEFORE Elway came along. Always thought he was going to be one of the great all-time QB's, but injuries derailed his career.

Never will forget the 1975 Colts team that started 1-4, and then won 9 straight games to take the AFC East Division Title.

Totally agree, much as Bradshaw was Eli before there was an Eli. Talk about a guy in the right spot at the right time..

Fastpitch Dad · May 9, 2020

CowboyRoy said:
Those two were bus drivers that had arguably the two best supporting casts in the history of the NFL.

Put either of those guy on a mediocre to good team and they don't make the HOF by a long shot.

Romo was twice the QB of either of them, especially Bradshaw. He wouldn't have sniffed a winning season without all that talent on those teams. Swann and Stallworth made up for a lot of errant throws, and or course the 1-2 punch at RB.

DFWJC · May 9, 2020

CalPolyTechnique said:
Sorry, I like the idea but I can’t see how in any comprehensible way Otto Graham, playing in the 1940s and 50s, can be rated #1 overall.

Fwiw

NFL Network recently put out their All-Time best QB list

These lists are always debatable but here it is:

Brady
Montana
P Manning
Unitas
Graham
Brees
Marino
Staubach
Elway
Rodgers

etc

Passer rating doesn't always correlate to "best"....not should it.... but more often than not it's in the general ballpark

DFWJC · May 9, 2020

Fastpitch Dad said:
Totally agree, much as Bradshaw was Eli before there was an Eli. Talk about a guy in the right spot at the right time..

212 Tds
210 Interceptions

:laugh:

I will give him this. He's one of those guys who's QB rating went UP some in the playoffs. That's unusual for any QB due to the competition.
But he did play on some the most stacked teams in NFL history--both sides of the ball.
Similar to Troy in that regard. Very blessed

12+88=7 · May 9, 2020

DFWJC said:
Top 20 (of 100)

Graham --HOF

Young --HOF

Montana --HOF

Mahomes -Super Bowl MVP

Dawson --HOF

Jorgenson --HOF

Anderson --crickets

Rodgers --future HOF

Staubach --HOF

Starr --HOF

Tarkenton --HOF

P Manning --future HOF

Warner --HOF

Wilson --Super Bowl MVP

Romo --broadcaster dude

Brady --future HOF

Brees --future HOF

Unitas --HOF

Fouts --HOF

Marino --HOF

It's a shame Ken Anderson gets crickets next to his name.

Compare him to his peers in the '70s and he was right there with them.

I said this before, only six teams could win SBs in the '70s, and Anderson was not on any of them.

Always loved the Anderson to Isaac Curtis combo.

DFWJC · May 9, 2020

12+88=7 said:
It's a shame Ken Anderson gets crickets next to his name.

Compare him to his peers in the '70s and he was right there with them.

I said this before, only six teams could win SBs in the '70s, and Anderson was not on any of them.

Always loved the Anderson to Isaac Curtis combo.

He was outstanding.
Montana's length of the field game-winning drive beat Anderson (and team) in the Super Bowl.
In a losing effort, he had a then Super Bowl record 73% completion percentage plus 300 yards and 3 total TDs. Not enough.
So close.
If they had won, he'd be in the HOF already.

DFWJC · May 9, 2020

I would do this for the playoff QB ratings as well.

It's a bit weird though, because you could play horribly for 10 years so your team doesn't make the playoffs. get in one year and get on a roll, and end up at the top of the list. Or guys like Nick Foles who caught lightning a bottle for a post-season.
lol

But guys like Aikman and Bradshaw would move way up ...probably into the top 10 or 15 if adjusted for time/era.
They are both in the actual top 20 list and it's not time -adjusted.
Most of those already in my original list would be there too. Bart Starr, Montana, Brees, Brady, etc. (even Romo, believe it or not)

Manwiththeplan · May 9, 2020

CalPolyTechnique said:
Sorry, I like the idea but I can’t see how in any comprehensible way Otto Graham, playing in the 1940s and 50s, can be rated #1 overall.

the issue is you are rewarding old school QBs by adjusting, but aren’t taking into account the complexity of modern defenses vs 50+ years ago

buybuydandavis · May 9, 2020

DFWJC said:
You can take the average rating of any year vs the current rating and come up with a real adjustment to these numbers.

Can you be more precise about that?

buybuydandavis · May 9, 2020

AbeBeta said:
A big reason for the passer rating being so low is that back in the day, starting QBs might throw 3 or 4 picks an no one would bat an eye. I recall watching Ken Stabler toss 7 in a game. He remained the starter and was named to the pro bowl that year.

Stabler would have one absolute dog of a game every year. But he was usually magic in a 2 minute drill. If he had played today, they would have fixed his knees so he'd be a scrambler too.

Skybox22 · May 9, 2020

mattjames2010 said:
Young's 1994 season, in my humble opinion, is the greatest season a QB has had in NFL history. I think he was the perfect QB outside of the injuries.

Brent Jones, Tim Harris, Tim McDonald, Deion Sanders, Norton Jr, Bart Oates, Richard Dent, Rickey Jackson, Charles Mann, Gary Plummer. He should have had a good year. Broke the cap and lost draft picks.
92' and 93' he wasn't perfect at all. Got beat by a young team at home and got obliterated on the road the next year. He was good but not great. Then GB went into SF in 95' and beat them. Still got that monkey on his back to me.

buybuydandavis · May 9, 2020

Manwiththeplan said:
the issue is you are rewarding old school QBs by adjusting, but aren’t taking into account the complexity of modern defenses vs 50+ years ago

Take into account the protection modern QBs get over the past too, and the improvements in medicine to keep them going.

ThatJerryKid · May 9, 2020

DFWJC said:
21-50

21) B Jones
22) Pennington
23) Rivers
24) Kelly
25) Cousins
26) Garcia
27) Theismann
28) Griese
29) Stafford
30) Van Brocklin
31) Roethlisberger
32) Meredith
33) Prescott
34) Ryan
35) Favre
36)Gabriel
37) Tittle
38) Lomax
39) Morrell
40) White
41) Culpepper
42) Gannon
43) Kosar
44) T Green
45) Kreig
46) Eason
47) Esiason
48) Brodie
49) Hostetler
50) OBrien

Dak is #33. Pay him $33 million per year and move on. It’s easy math.

big dog cowboy · May 9, 2020

cowboybish said:
Bradshaw not in top 75 either

He couldn't spell C-A-T either.

12+88=7 · May 9, 2020

Manwiththeplan said:
the issue is you are rewarding old school QBs by adjusting, but aren’t taking into account the complexity of modern defenses vs 50+ years ago

You're not taking into account recievers could be held till the ball was in the air, your career could be ended going over the middle, and QBs could be slammed into the turf, head first, and all the ref would say is play on.

I would love to have a time machine and have today's offensive players(who whine about the smallest things) play under the rules of the past, when the defense could actually play defense.

Dollars to donuts the numbers they put up would be less. I say this because today's players are not as technically sound in their craft to overcome the rules.

DFWJC · May 9, 2020

buybuydandavis said:
Can you be more precise about that?

Rolling average/Standard Deviation (2 or 4 seasons front and back) of top 15 each year.
The 2019 PR ( I used 101 but real average was 102+ in 2019 so could use that) as the numerator and rolling ave number from the average year played (so if career was 2000-2009 then mid-year rolling average used would be 2005) as the numerator to get the factor.
Factor generally gets larger the further back you go so all older rating are adjusted up to today's standards.
Multiply factor time actual passer rating to get adjusted rating.

Could be done in many ways and would result in slight movement up or down for various players.

Was just bored and having fun.

texbumthelife · May 9, 2020

DFWJC said:
As we all know, NFL Passer ratings have been steadily drifting up for several decades now.
For example, the average of the top 15 passer ratings was:
76 in 1970
90 in 2000
103 in 2019

It's a big reason why the current leaderboard for career passer rating is so skewed to active players.

You can take the average rating of any year vs the current rating and come up with a real adjustment to these numbers.

Here is a TIME-ADJUSTED list of the NFL's Career Passer Rating leaders.
You'll find it makes much more sense if you want to measure players across eras.

Top 20 (of 100)

Graham

Young

Montana

Mahomes

Dawson

Jorgenson

Anderson

Rodgers

Staubach

Starr

Tarkenton

P Manning

Warner

Wilson

Romo

Brady

Brees

Unitas

Fouts

Marino

Great post, in principle. Could you share your formula or algorithm you used to come up with this, or is it just opinion based?

buybuydandavis · May 9, 2020

Jumbo075 said:
I remember watching Bert Jones play for the Baltimore Colts. He was Elway BEFORE Elway came along. Always thought he was going to be one of the great all-time QB's, but injuries derailed his career.

Never will forget the 1975 Colts team that started 1-4, and then won 9 straight games to take the AFC East Division Title.

They used to let teams pound QBs, and they didn't have the knee rebuilds we have today.

Stabler with knees that worked. That would have been something.

This is why Jim Brown is the GOAT, IMO. Unstoppable and indestructible in an age where they let defenses destroy you, and couldn't fix you when they did.

DFWJC · May 9, 2020

Manwiththeplan said:
the issue is you are rewarding old school QBs by adjusting, but aren’t taking into account the complexity of modern defenses vs 50+ years ago

If anything, it's WAY easier for offense now than in the past.
More WRs in normal patterns, far more advanced offesnes, far more rules to help the offense (can't mug the WRs, can't kill the QB, etc)
The QB ratings have been steadily rising for 50 years without ever more than a year or so pause.
So the changes are just as big going back only to 2000 as they were for those way back in time.
Steady rise. No bias, just steady rise.

NFL All-Time Passer Rating Leaders - time adjusted

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