NFL All-Time Passer Rating Leaders - time adjusted

[DFWJC]

Great post, in principle. Could you share your formula or algorithm you used to come up with this, or is it just opinion based?

post 57 kind of sums it up.

Zero opinion factor in this though.

And I know that if I was a programmer I could do better.
Just an attempt to apply real numbers to and interesting question.

The variable would be what year you choose as you comparative base year after you got the rolling averages.
Also how far out you want the wings on the standard deviation to be. I used both 9--4 on each side-- and 3, I think.

 

[texbumthelife]

post 57 kind of sums it up.

Zero opinion factor in this though.

And I know that if I was a programmer I could do better.
Just an attempt to apply real numbers to and interesting question.

Thank you. Wasn't trying to be snarky, just genuinely wanted to see the work behind figuring the numbers out.

 

[Jumbo075]

They used to let teams pound QBs, and they didn't have the knee rebuilds we have today.

Stabler with knees that worked. That would have been something.

This is why Jim Brown is the GOAT, IMO. Unstoppable and indestructible in an age where they let defenses destroy you, and couldn't fix you when they did.

I think both Jim Brown and Emmitt Smith were better "football players" than him, but for my money, the best ever RB was Barry Sanders.

 

[mattjames2010]

Brent Jones, Tim Harris, Tim McDonald, Deion Sanders, Norton Jr, Bart Oates, Richard Dent, Rickey Jackson, Charles Mann, Gary Plummer. He should have had a good year. Broke the cap and lost draft picks.
92' and 93' he wasn't perfect at all. Got beat by a young team at home and got obliterated on the road the next year. He was good but not great. Then GB went into SF in 95' and beat them. Still got that monkey on his back to me.

This is silly and stupid. Plenty of QBs have been on loaded teams and didn't do squat.

Tom Brady has been with the greatest coach of all time for nearly 20 years and hasn't had a year as good as Young. Your fan bias is showing and it's just embarrassing.

But even in comparison, how loaded was Brady's team in 2007? Do we dismiss Manning's 2004 season? Do we knock points off for Rodgers in 2011 for that being an outlier season for passing league wide?

Elite and HOF players are often helped by being surrounded by good talent, difference is a QB has the ability to elevate those good players. How many times have players gone to New England having success and left looking like trash?

 

[Skybox22]

This is silly and stupid. Plenty of QBs have been on loaded teams and didn't do squat.

Tom Brady has been with the greatest coach of all time for nearly 20 years and hasn't had a year as good as Young. Your fan bias is showing and it's just embarrassing.

This is silly and stupid. Plenty of QBs have been on loaded teams and didn't do squat.

Tom Brady has been with the greatest coach of all time for nearly 20 years and hasn't had a year as good as Young. Your fan bias is showing and it's just embarrassing.

Wrong! Name a team that brought in that many All-pros from other teams. And then name those QB's that have had loaded teams. I'll be waiting. And who the heck mentioned Brady?

 

[mattjames2010]

Wrong! Name a team that brought in that many All-pros from other teams. And then name those QB's that have had loaded teams. I'll be waiting. And who the heck mentioned Brady?

I just named you two of them. Tom Brady has been on LOADS of teams in 20 years with multiple all-pro, great offensive lines, great WRs, etc. Manning played with a great offensive line, Harrison, Wayne, Clark, etc. Yet NEITHER of those QBs had a season as good as Young.

Your'e crying because he played for a rival team in the 90s. Let it go, you look silly, stop looking silly.

 

[DFWJC]

I just named you two of them. Tom Brady has been on LOADS of teams in 20 years with multiple all-pro, great offensive lines, great WRs, etc. Manning played with a great offensive line, Harrison, Wayne, Clark, etc. Yet NEITHER of those QBs had a season as good as Young.

Your'e crying because he played for a rival team in the 90s. Let it go, you look silly, stop looking silly.

Hey Matt
That season Young had really stood out.
Staubach in 1971 was a huge anomaly too. He had a modern day elite QB rating nearly 50 years ago that year.
If we made a 2019 adjustment just for that season, his QB rating would be 138...lol
Average top 15 rating that year was 76, and he had a 104.8
Really unbelievable.

 

[Skybox22]

I just named you two of them. Tom Brady has been on LOADS of teams in 20 years with multiple all-pro, great offensive lines, great WRs, etc. Manning played with a great offensive line, Harrison, Wayne, Clark, etc. Yet NEITHER of those QBs had a season as good as Young.

Your'e crying because he played for a rival team in the 90s. Let it go, you look silly, stop looking silly.

Once again. Didn't Indy draft those guys? Didn't NE draft those guys? Who did NE bring in other than Moss that was a great WR? It's common knowledge that NE wins without busting the bank.
Young was 8-6 in the playoffs and 3-0 when they bought a team. Keep trying

 

[iceberg]

51) McNair
52) B Johnson
53) Elway
54) Wentz
55) Brunell
56) Moon
57) Schuab
58) Cunningham
59) ODonnell
60) Aikman
61) Simms
62) Morton
63) Bartowski
64) Goff
65) Garrard
66) McNabb
67) Carr
68) Luck
69) Kaepernick
70) George
71) Herbert
72) Tannehill
73) Greise
74) McMahon
75) A Smith

I think I'll stop here.

If anyone wants to know of someone not on the list, just ask

This could be done in many ways but it does apply the actual raw numbers and then uses a ratio to adjust to.

Aikman #60 invalidates the entire premise. Without him we don't win 3 superbowls.

 

[mattjames2010]

Hey Matt
That season Young had really stood out.
Staubach in 1971 was a huge anomaly too. He had a modern day elite QB rating nearly 50 years ago that year.
If we made a 2019 adjustment just for that season, his QB rating would be 138...lol
Average top 15 rating that year was 76, and he had a 104.8
Really unbelievable.

I was actually going to mention Stabauch's 1971 season, I think Marino's 1984 season also comes into the discussion as well. He had more INTs, but he played in a rough era and threw a ton more on a pretty weak team. I would be okay with an argument that both are better than Young's 1994 season.

 

[JoeKing]

Dak - 33

 

[DFWJC]

Some (not all) of the best Career Adjusted Playoff Passer ratings
Not in order...just decided to look a few up and run the numbers/adjustments

Montana-
Warner
Anderson
Rodgers
Starr
Staubach
Aikman
Bradshaw
Mahomes
Theismann
Ryan
Romo
Young
Favre
Wilson

 

[mattjames2010]

Once again. Didn't Indy draft those guys? Didn't NE draft those guys? Who did NE bring in other than Moss that was a great WR? It's common knowledge that NE wins without busting the bank.
Young was 8-6 in the playoffs and 3-0 when they bought a team. Keep trying

What the hell does any of this actually matter.....at all? Young had a 101.8, 107.0, and 101.5 rating the three seasons prior. Let's stop acting like he was looking like a scrub before 1994, the dude was lighting it up before then. Would you like to compare Manning's years before his 2004 season or Brady's 2007 season? I can tell you right now, those seasons look like vast outliers in comparison. Heck, Young looked freakin' amazing in 1989 when he played in 11 games, he had a 120.8 rating.

Young was so good it started a QB controversy in San Fran....with arguably the GOAT QB.

 

[DFWJC]

Aikman #60 invalidates the entire premise. Without him we don't win 3 superbowls.

Only about 4-5 players out of hundreds though...so 98-99%.

Anyway
He does make top 15 all time adjusted playoff passer rating.
Hence...HOF


He just had a few really bad seasons to bring his overall average down.
People know he's always the outlier when it comes to passer rating for several reasons.

This adjustment favors guys like Staubach--who really stood our in his era in passer rating as well team success. Guys who really didn't regularly stand out in passer rating even in their era aren't going to get a boost.

As you know, although the passer rating (both offense and defense) has a big correlation with winning, it never has been the final word. And we could never use it as the only way to measure a QB.
No way. And not what this about.

 

[Rockport]

As we all know, NFL Passer ratings have been steadily drifting up for several decades now.
For example, the average of the top 15 passer ratings was:
76 in 1970
90 in 2000
103 in 2019

It's a big reason why the current leaderboard for career passer rating is so skewed to active players.

You can take the average rating of any year vs the current rating and come up with a real adjustment to these numbers.

Here is a TIME-ADJUSTED list of the NFL's Career Passer Rating leaders.
You'll find it makes much more sense if you want to measure players across eras.

Top 20 (of 100)

1. Graham
2. Young
3. Montana
4. Mahomes
5. Dawson
6. Jorgenson
7. Anderson
8. Rodgers
9. Staubach
10. Starr
11. Tarkenton
12. P Manning
13. Warner
14. Wilson
15. Romo
16. Brady
17. Brees
18. Unitas
19. Fouts
20. Marino

Any analysis that has Brady at #16 is immediately dismissed. I mean, come on man.

 

[buybuydandavis]

I think both Jim Brown and Emmitt Smith were better "football players" than him, but for my money, the best ever RB was Barry Sanders.

Sanders was the best pure runner for 1st and 2nd down. Not close to Emmitt or Brown for short yardage. There's a youtube of the "best runs in NFL history". Lots and lots of Barry. He'd just completely embarrass players and even whole defenses. One of the worst was against us. Looked like 8 cowboys in a phone booth with Sanders, and he breaks free. It's like a magic trick.

 

[DFWJC]

Any analysis that has Brady at #16 is immediately dismissed. I mean, come on man.

Like I said, it's not a ranking of QBs. Never has been and never will be.
We all know Brady is better than the 16h best QB. Top 5 at lthe least, imo.
But this thread topic is NON opinion based

Brady kind of stays about the same as where he is in regular unadjusted career passer ratings.

But you'll notice almost every QB in that top 20 in already in or will be in the HOF....wih only a couple of exceptions.
That's no accident.

op 20 (of 100)

1. Graham --HOF
2. Young --HOF
3. Montana --HOF
4. Mahomes -Super Bowl MVP
5. Dawson --HOF
6. Jorgenson --HOF
7. Anderson --crickets
8. Rodgers --future HOF
9. Staubach --HOF
10. Starr --HOF
11. Tarkenton --HOF
12. P Manning --future HOF
13. Warner --HOF
14. Wilson --Super Bowl MVP
15. Romo --broadcaster dude
16. Brady --future HOF
17. Brees --future HOF
18. Unitas --HOF
19. Fouts --HOF
20. Marino --HOF

 

[Skybox22]

What the hell does any of this actually matter.....at all? Young had a 101.8, 107.0, and 101.5 rating the three seasons prior. Let's stop acting like he was looking like a scrub before 1994, the dude was lighting it up before then. Would you like to compare Manning's years before his 2004 season or Brady's 2007 season? I can tell you right now, those seasons look like vast outliers in comparison. Heck, Young looked freakin' amazing in 1989 when he played in 11 games, he had a 120.8 rating.

Young was so good it started a QB controversy in San Fran....with arguably the GOAT QB.

I agree! He was good against NO, LA Rams and Atlanta who were horrible then. (Easy, Easy Division). He won MVP if I'm not mistaken in 92. I was just saying he didn't win (when it mattered) until they signed all those all-pros and broke the salary cap and lost draft picks because of it. Brady and Manning never did that or anybody that I can remember.

 

[Rockport]

Like I said, it's not a ranking of QBs. Never has been and never will be.
We all know Brady is better than the 16h best QB. Top 5 at lthe least, imo.
But this thread topic is NON opinion based

Brady kind of stays about the same as where he is in regular unadjusted career passer ratings.
But you'll notice almost every QB in that top 25 in already in or will be in the HOF....wih only a couple of exceptions.
That's no accident.

Again, any QB comparison that has Brady at #16 is automatically garbage. I don’t care what kind of angle they’re trying to jam down peoples throats. I guess some will bite.

 

[DFWJC]

I agree! He was good against NO, LA Rams and Atlanta who were horrible then. (Easy, Easy Division). He won MVP if I'm not mistaken in 92. I was just saying he didn't win (when it mattered) until they signed all those all-pros and broke the salary cap and lost draft picks because of it. Brady and Manning never did that or anybody that I can remember.

The only QBs that played on teams as loaded as Young were Aikman and Bradshaw and maybe Montana.
But Young really did have some great years. I won't take that away from him