Teachable Moment: That's why you go for two early

Hardline · Sep 21, 2020

Playmaker247 said:
It’s 2020 and people are still using “conventional wisdom” as a argument? Traditionalist will always be the impeder’s of progress. If people just listened to conventional wisdom we’d all still think the Earth is flat.

Conventional wisdom follows science which proved the world was a globe. Very bad analogy for you.
Conventional wisdom wins football games 99% of the time.

Flamma · Sep 21, 2020

JD_KaPow said:
For some reason, people think you should kick the xp when you score a TD to put you down 9 late in the game. Today was the perfect demonstration of why this is wrong.

Down 15, you either need two scores or three scores, depending on whether you convert a 2-pointer or not.

But you don't know how many scores you need until you attempt the 2-pointer. That's why you do it after the first TD.

If the Cowboys had kicked the XP after the first TD, they would have been down 8 and they wouldn't know how many more scores they needed. They likely would have been more methodical on the second TD drive, playing to tie (and not leave the Falcons enough time to win it). Then, if they failed the 2-point conversion, the game is over.

This way, they KNEW they needed two more scores, and they were much more aggressive on the second TD drive, leaving themselves enough time for the third score.

When down 15 late, ALWAYS go for 2 after the FIRST score. Information matters. And there's no benefit--none--to waiting.

I have no problem either way. But in either situation if you miss the 2 point play you should lose.

I get your point. Miss it early and the team plays both O and D with more urgency. The problem is, your opponent now knows you have to score twice and will act accordingly. Further draining the clock, forcing you to go for an onsides kick.

Nav22 · Sep 21, 2020

Hardline said:
You play for a one possession score everytime. The Football gods smiled on the Cowboys today.

This thread only exist because the Cowboys won.

You’re missing it.

Being down 8 points is only a “1-possession score” if you convert on a 2-point conversion after a TD.

Dallas went for 2 and failed. So your premise is flawed.

Their odds of success were the exact same whether they went for it to cut the lead from 9 to 7... or to cut it from 2 to 0.

The benefit of going for 2 early is that you find out if you need 1 more score or 2 more scores.

Runwildboys · Sep 21, 2020

visionary said:
LOL

here is another “teachable moment”, make sure you are 100% on your on side kicks if you are going to follow this

They clearly weren't 100% on 2 point conversions. Getting a two point conversion is basically like getting a TD from the 2 yard line on the first attempt. How many times has this offense done that? Then, even if you went for one on the first TD, then managed to get two on the second TD, you're still only tied. Now you have to win in OT. So add that factor in as well.

I agree it was the right decision. I wasn't 100% sure at the time, but I was leaning in that direction.

Runwildboys · Sep 21, 2020

Flamma said:
I have no problem either way. But in either situation if you miss the 2 point play you should lose.

I get your point. Miss it early and the team plays both O and D with more urgency. The problem is, your opponent now knows you have to score twice and will act accordingly. Further draining the clock, forcing you to go for an onsides kick.

Or they'll play with less urgency, knowing you have to score twice, which seemed to be exactly what happened. I believe they went into "prevent" defense.

blueblood70 · Sep 21, 2020

well all i know is old MM MR i found Analytics needs to reexamine his calls not going for it in the rams game ie kick the easy FG most likely cost us the game and some of thes calls while aggressiveness is appreciated more so then vanilla, he wen that well far too often IMHO..yes do it but not to that extreme,,

we need to pull it together we are facing maybe the 3rd ranked team in the league right now next week on the road outsiders..thats not good for the Boys..

Jake · Sep 21, 2020

11 pages in a thread that only exists because Dallas got lucky on a play that was successful 6% of the time last season.

When your "teachable moment" depends on that onside kick happening you have learned the wrong lesson.

DogFace · Sep 21, 2020

There’s a mental block going on early in this thread.

Somehow people think if we had kicked the extra point that there’s no way we’d have needed an onside kick.

Good post @JD_KaPow

JD_KaPow · Sep 21, 2020

Jake said:
11 pages in a thread that only exists because Dallas got lucky on a play that was successful 6% of the time last season.

When your "teachable moment" depends on that onside kick happening you have learned the wrong lesson.

You have simply misunderstood the lesson.
There’s a chance (the same chance) you need the onside kick either way. The difference is only about when you know you need it.

JD_KaPow · Sep 21, 2020

Flamma said:
I have no problem either way. But in either situation if you miss the 2 point play you should lose.

I get your point. Miss it early and the team plays both O and D with more urgency. The problem is, your opponent now knows you have to score twice and will act accordingly. Further draining the clock, forcing you to go for an onsides kick.

You saw the game, right? That’s not at all what the opponent did.

JD_KaPow · Sep 21, 2020

visionary said:
LOL

here is another “teachable moment”, make sure you are 100% on your on side kicks if you are going to follow this

Why is it so hard for people to understand that you need the onside kick either way, if you miss the 2-pointer? The only difference is when you know whether you need it or not.

JD_KaPow · Sep 21, 2020

Oz-of-Cowboy-Country said:
On Football Night in America all the guys agreed it was a dumb call, to go for two on the first TD.

Yes, and they were wrong.

visionary · Sep 21, 2020

JD_KaPow said:
Why is it so hard for people to understand that you need the onside kick either way, if you miss the 2-pointer? The only difference is when you know whether you need it or not.

That is easy to understand

the issue is that you want to keep the pressure on the opposition by making it a one score game. The 2 point conversion is much lower conversion percentage so there is a higher probability of letting your opponent know that you have to score twice and they are a lot less stressed and less likely to make mistakes

If the Falcons player had only bothered to pick up the ball on the onside kick (which would happen 99% of the time) you would never have created this thread

if anything this should be a “teachable moment” for you and the coaching staff not to go for 2 with the first TD

CowboyRoy · Sep 21, 2020

JD_KaPow said:
For some reason, people think you should kick the xp when you score a TD to put you down 9 late in the game. Today was the perfect demonstration of why this is wrong.

Down 15, you either need two scores or three scores, depending on whether you convert a 2-pointer or not.

But you don't know how many scores you need until you attempt the 2-pointer. That's why you do it after the first TD.

If the Cowboys had kicked the XP after the first TD, they would have been down 8 and they wouldn't know how many more scores they needed. They likely would have been more methodical on the second TD drive, playing to tie (and not leave the Falcons enough time to win it). Then, if they failed the 2-point conversion, the game is over.

This way, they KNEW they needed two more scores, and they were much more aggressive on the second TD drive, leaving themselves enough time for the third score.

When down 15 late, ALWAYS go for 2 after the FIRST score. Information matters. And there's no benefit--none--to waiting.

LOL...…….you mean you got taught a lesson?

Yesterday was a text book lesson in why you DONT go for two there. All going for 2 does is tell you if your going to lose the game or not real quickly.

Cant believe someone actually started a thread defending one of the dumbest calls I have EVER seen. Cowboys lose the game and MM is lambasted everywhere.

NorthTexan95 · Sep 21, 2020

Jake said:
11 pages in a thread that only exists because Dallas got lucky on a play that was successful 6% of the time last season.

When your "teachable moment" depends on that onside kick happening you have learned the wrong lesson.

The onside kick is not part of the equation of whether to go for 2 after the first touchdown.

The point is going for 2 after the first TD, whether you succeed or not, gives you more options later on.

Creeper · Sep 21, 2020

This is somewhat valid. If the Cowboys kicked the XP they probably would have played for 1 last score with no time on the clock. But momentum would be in the Cowboys favor most likely.

NFL teams are making 2 pt conversions over 48% of the time. The odds of recovering an onside kick with the new rules is 6%. Based on the percentages, the right play is to kick the extra point to make it an 8 pt difference. The try to go for 2 if they score again.

BTW, I thought they should have gone for two when they at 29-16 to make it an 11 point game in the 3rd quarter. Especially if they were going to fake punt early in the 4th.

JD_KaPow · Sep 21, 2020

visionary said:
That is easy to understand

the issue is that you want to keep the pressure on the opposition by making it a one score game. The 2 point conversion is much lower conversion percentage so there is a higher probability of letting your opponent know that you have to score twice and they are a lot less stressed and less likely to make mistakes

If the Falcons player had only bothered to pick up the ball on the onside kick (which would happen 99% of the time) you would never have created this thread

if anything this should be a “teachable moment” for you and the coaching staff not to go for 2 with the first TD

None of what you write makes sense. Of course you lose if you miss both the 2-pointer and the onside kick...but that has nothing to do with when you try the 2-pointer.

The rest is built around this weird idea that the other team will play worse up 8 than up 9, which is based on nothing, and in fact we saw yesterday that Dallas was able to stop then and score against them down 9. The opposite is almost certainly true: a team up 9 is far more likely to play soft and allow a score (remember, the first score could be the FG), and that’s what we saw.

Hardline · Sep 21, 2020

Jake said:
11 pages in a thread that only exists because Dallas got lucky on a play that was successful 6% of the time last season.

When your "teachable moment" depends on that onside kick happening you have learned the wrong lesson.

This.

JD_KaPow · Sep 21, 2020

Creeper said:
This is somewhat valid. If the Cowboys kicked the XP they probably would have played for 1 last score with no time on the clock. But momentum would be in the Cowboys favor most likely.

NFL teams are making 2 pt conversions over 48% of the time. The odds of recovering an onside kick with the new rules is 6%. Based on the percentages, the right play is to kick the extra point to make it an 8 pt difference. The try to go for 2 if they score again.

BTW, I thought they should have gone for two when they at 29-16 to make it an 11 point game in the 3rd quarter. Especially if they were going to fake punt early in the 4th.

you had it right in the first paragraph, and then got it wrong. The odds of the 2-pointer are the same whenever you take it. The percentages don’t change based on when you try it.

Future · Sep 21, 2020

Kick the XP and then play the game as if you are down two scores. Problem solved.

Depending on an onside kick, rather than scoring and converting a 2 pt. and going to OT is silly.

Teachable Moment: That's why you go for two early

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