Teachable Moment: That's why you go for two early

[JD_KaPow]

Kick the XP and then play the game as if you are down two scores. Problem solved.

Thats the worst possible approach. If you make the two-pointer after the second score, you just left time on the clock for the other team to beat you.

Depending on an onside kick, rather than scoring and converting a 2 pt. and going to OT is silly.

Sigh. You’re not depending on the onside unless you miss the 2-pointer. That’s true whether you try it early or late. The comparison is not between a 2-point conversion and an onside kick.

 

[visionary]

None of what you write makes sense. Of course you lose if you miss both the 2-pointer and the onside kick...but that has nothing to do with when you try the 2-pointer.

The rest is built around this weird idea that the other team will play worse up 8 than up 9, which is based on nothing, and in fact we saw yesterday that Dallas was able to stop then and score against them down 9. The opposite is almost certainly true: a team up 9 is far more likely to play soft and allow a score (remember, the first score could be the FG), and that’s what we saw.

lets cut through this crap

You would never have made this thread if an Atlanta player simply picks up the ball at his feet

The rest of your post is just nonsense

 

[JD_KaPow]

lets cut through this crap

You would never have made this thread if an Atlanta player simply picks up the ball at his feet

The rest of your post is just nonsense

I’ve advocated for this for years. I advocated for it at the time it happened in the chat.

Of course an onside kick is a crap proposition. You’d much rather convert the 2-pointer. But if you miss the 2-pointer, early or late, you have no other option.

 

[Future]

Sigh. You’re not depending on the onside unless you miss the 2-pointer. That’s true whether you try it early or late. The comparison is not between a 2-point conversion and an onside kick.

Yes it is. They were never going to get 2 possessoins without the onside kick.

Miss the 2-point on the second TD, and you're in the same boat.

 

[JD_KaPow]

Yes it is. They were never going to get 2 possessoins without the onside kick.

Right. That’s true if they miss the 2-pointer early, and it’s true if they miss the 2-pointer late. The ONLY difference is when you learn you need the onside kick.

 

[Future]

Right. That’s true if they miss the 2-pointer early, and it’s true if they miss the 2-pointer late. The ONLY difference is when you learn you need the onside kick.

No. If you kick the one and then convert the 2-pt., you don't need the onside kick because you've tied the game.

There's merit to the argument that getting the two gives you a chance to win if you go for 2 again, but that's not the argument anyone is making.

 

[JD_KaPow]

No. If you kick the one and then convert the 2-pt., you don't need the onside kick because you've tied the game.

And if you convert the 2-point early, you kick late to tie the game. It’s exactly the same. You can’t assume they’ll convert the 2-pointer late.

 

[Future]

And if you convert the 2-point early, you kick late to tie the game. It’s exactly the same. You can’t assume they’ll convert the 2-pointer late.

You can't assume they convert the first one either. You take the 1 because it becomes a 1-score game and you have a chance to tie without depending on an onsides kick. If you don't get the second one, you're in the exact same spot anyway.

 

[CouchCoach]

There has been a coach's book for years concerning when to go for 2 and in that situation, the correct call was to go for the 1 and make it a one score game and not dependent on an onside kick, a very improbable success with the rule changes.

McC made another questionable decision in back to back games and he got lucky on this one. Lucky that the Falcons are so poorly coached on ST. If I am Blank, I order Quinn to fire the STC and then I fire him.

 

[JD_KaPow]

You can't assume they convert the first one either. You take the 1 because it becomes a 1-score game and you have a chance to tie without depending on an onsides kick. If you don't get the second one, you're in the exact same spot anyway.

You have a chance to tie without the onside kick in either case: just convert the 2-pointer. It’s exactly the same.

An 8-point game is not a one-score game. It’s either a one-score or a two-score game. You simply don’t know until you find out if the 2-pointer was successful. Better to find out early.

 

[JD_KaPow]

There has been a coach's book for years concerning when to go for 2 and in that situation, the correct call was to go for the 1 and make it a one score game and not dependent on an onside kick, a very improbable success with the rule changes.

McC made another questionable decision in back to back games and he got lucky on this one. Lucky that the Falcons are so poorly coached on ST. If I am Blank, I order Quinn to fire the STC and then I fire him.

I posted a link in this thread to Dick Vermeil’s college chart from the 70s, which says to go for 2. Because he understood that you need the onside if you miss the 2 pointer, no matter when you try it, and you don’t need the onside if you make the 2-pointer, no matter when you try it.

 

[Future]

You have a chance to tie without the onside kick in either case: just convert the 2-pointer. It’s exactly the same.

An 8-point game is not a one-score game. It’s either a one-score or a two-score game. You simply don’t know until you find out if the 2-pointer was successful. Better to find out early.

OK, one possession game instead of one score, if that makes you happy. When you are trailing late, you need to reduce the number of possessions you need.

It is not better to find out early, that doesn't make any sense - it's like saying you'd prefer that the other team scores 20 in the first quarter, so you know you have to come back. You can find out if it is a 1- or 2-score game by just kicking the XP. It was a 2-possession game, they scored a TD, and failing to get the 2-pt conversion kept it...a 2 possession game.

I mean, when it comes down to it, kicking the 1 gives you the opportunity to not depend on recovering an onside kick. The alternate to that isn't "you find out early," it's that going for 2 would give us a chance to win with a 2. pt later.

 

[Creeper]

you had it right in the first paragraph, and then got it wrong. The odds of the 2-pointer are the same whenever you take it. The percentages don’t change based on when you try it.

Of course the odds are the same. But the thinking is if they miss the 2 pt conversion (51.8% probability) the game is basically over since the odds of recovering the onside kick are so low. But I am revising my logic as we speak. The probability of failing to make the 2 pt conversion and recovering the onside kick is 48.6%.

The odds of kicking the XP, then making the 2 point conversion is 45.8 %.

Of course in practice it looks different because if the 2 pt conversion fails, the chances of success are really only 6%. But looking at the 2 events together the probability of success is to go for 2 the first time.

Okay, I changed my mind but one needs to be very optimistic if the 2 pt conversion fails.

 

[JD_KaPow]

OK, one possession game instead of one score, if that makes you happy. When you are trailing late, you need to reduce the number of possessions you need.

It is not better to find out early, that doesn't make any sense - it's like saying you'd prefer that the other team scores 20 in the first quarter, so you know you have to come back. You can find out if it is a 1- or 2-score game by just kicking the XP. It was a 2-possession game, they scored a TD, and failing to get the 2-pt conversion kept it...a 2 possession game.

I mean, when it comes down to it, kicking the 1 gives you the opportunity to not depend on recovering an onside kick. The alternate to that isn't "you find out early," it's that going for 2 would give us a chance to win with a 2. pt later.

Kicking the xp does not give you the opportunity to avoid the onside kick. Only converting a 2-pointer gives you that opportunity. You need to convert one 2-pointer—whenever you try it—or depend on the onside kick.

 

[DOUBLE WING]

You can't assume they convert the first one either. You take the 1 because it becomes a 1-score game and you have a chance to tie without depending on an onsides kick. If you don't get the second one, you're in the exact same spot anyway.

This makes no sense. Who cares if it's a one score game? The problem was the play call, not when it was called. With that same play call they would have missed the 2 pt conversion regardless of when it was attempted.

This is the definition of apples and oranges.

 

[Future]

Kicking the xp does not give you the opportunity to avoid the onside kick.

Kicking the XP puts you down 8. You can tie the game with one possession and not need the onsides kick.

 

[Future]

This makes no sense. Who cares if it's a one score game? The problem was the play call, not when it was called. With that same play call they would have missed the 2 pt conversion regardless of when it was attempted.

This is the definition of apples and oranges.

Who cares if it's a one score game? Any team who has ever played football?

The playcall is an entirely separate issue.

 

[aikemirv]

Of course the odds are the same. But the thinking is if they miss the 2 pt conversion (51.8% probability) the game is basically over since the odds of recovering the onside kick are so low. But I am revising my logic as we speak. The probability of failing to make the 2 pt conversion and recovering the onside kick is 48.6%.

The odds of kicking the XP, then making the 2 point conversion is 45.8 %.

Of course in practice it looks different because if the 2 pt conversion fails, the chances of success are really only 6%. But looking at the 2 events together the probability of success is to go for 2 the first time.

Okay, I changed my mind but one needs to be very optimistic if the 2 pt conversion fails.

That is not correct.

 

[DOUBLE WING]

Who cares if it's a one score game? Any team who has ever played football?

The playcall is an entirely separate issue.

But the fact that it's a one score game doesn't make the 2 point conversion easier or anymore attainable, so what bearing does it have on the outcome of the game?

The play needs to be converted, regardless of when it's attempted. That's really all that matters.

 

[JD_KaPow]

Kicking the XP puts you down 8. You can tie the game with one possession and not need the onsides kick.

I don’t get what’s so hard to understand. You need to convert a 2-pointer OR try an onside. This is true no matter when you attempt the 2-pointer.

Convert the 2-pointer early and it’s a 7-point game. No need to kick an onside.

Kick the xp early and you still have to convert a 2-pointer OR you’ll still need an onside kick. Only the timing is different.