Should the Cowboys have gone for 2 on the 1st or 2nd TD?

Diehardblues said:

Too long to read but probably not swaying my perspective. Can’t recall so many dumb coaching decisions after 2 games.

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I’ll summarize.

If we wait to attempt the two point conversion on the second touchdown, it is highly likely to have been late in the game with little to no time on the clock. Ideally if you wait to go for two, you want to convert the 2 point conversion with 0 seconds on the clock and go straight to OT. With that said, you’ve now relegated the game to do or die scenario where winning the game is completely dependent on converting the two point play. If you fail, you lose.

MM failed at 4:57 and we won.

Nothing highlights the distinction between the smart decision and the dumber one than this.

CarolinaFathead said:

I’ll summarize.

If we wait to attempt the two point conversion on the second touchdown, it is highly likely to have been late in the game with little to no time on the clock. Ideally if you wait to go for two, you want to convert the 2 point conversion with 0 seconds on the clock and go straight to OT. With that said, you’ve now relegated the game to do or die scenario where winning the game is completely dependent on converting the two point play. If you fail, you lose.

MM failed at 4:57 and we won.

Nothing highlights the distinction between the smart decision and the dumber one than this.

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The Cowboys win doesn’t validate a dumb decision.

Diehardblues said:

The Cowboys win doesn’t validate a dumb decision.

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It validates it was a smart decision.

If they did what you think they should have done and relegate winning the game to a late game one-off 50/50 proposition and failed, they’d be 0-2.

they failed the two point conversion at 4:57 and won.

So which one is dumb again?

CarolinaFathead said:

It validates it was a smart decision.

If they did what you think they should have done and relegate winning the game to a late game one-off 50/50 proposition and failed, they’d be 0-2.

they failed the two point conversion at 4:57 and won.

So which one is dumb again?

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I don’t believe that at all. If not for the gaff on onside kick we would have lost. That improbable play doesn’t validate the decision.

Diehardblues said:

I don’t believe that at all. If not for the gaff on onside kick we would have lost. That improbable play doesn’t validate the decision.

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yes it does lmao.

If MM did what you wanted him to do and wait for the two point conversion until the last possible second of the game and they fail, the team loses.

He failed at 4:57 and won.


Lol, it should be relatively easy to see who had the better strategy.

CarolinaFathead said:

yes it does lmao.

If MM did what you wanted him to do and wait for the two point conversion until the last possible second of the game and they fail, the team loses.

He failed at 4:57 and won.


Lol, it should be relatively easy to see who had the better strategy.

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You may believe that.

But result of the game doesn’t cleanse the questionable decision.

Diehardblues said:

You may believe that.

But result of the game doesn’t cleanse the questionable decision.

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lol yes it does.

If Dallas did what you wanted them to do and failed the 2 point conversion with little to no time on the clock they lose.

MM’s decision afforded him the luxury of failing and still winning the game.

You would lose if you were the coach and waited to do the 2 point conversion till the last possible second and subsequently failed.

MM afforded himself the option of failing the conversion and still winning which means his strategy was better than yours.

you know, since they ACTUALLY WON the game lol

MM is definitely smarter than you.

CarolinaFathead said:

lol yes it does.

If Dallas did what you wanted them to do and failed the 2 point conversion with little to no time on the clock they lose.

MM’s decision afforded him the luxury of failing and still winning the game.

You would lose if you were the coach and waited to do the 2 point conversion till the last possible second and subsequently failed.

MM afforded himself the option of failing the conversion and still winning which means his strategy was better than yours.

you know, since they ACTUALLY WON the game lol

MM is definitely smarter than you.

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Lol

No, the win doesn’t validate the decision. You may think it does but will never convince me. I suppose this is where you’ll get frustrated and begin making this personal.

Diehardblues said:

Lol

No, the win doesn’t validate the decision. You may think it does but will never convince me. I suppose this is where you’ll get frustrated and begin making this personal.

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It’s not personal saying MM is smarter than you since he sees this very simple mathematical calculation regarding probability stats.

That’s not a knock on you necessarily. I’m sure you can do, errrrr ...., things that MM can’t do. Statistical analysis related to probability theory is not one of them.

CarolinaFathead said:

It’s not personal saying MM is smarter than you since he sees this very simple mathematical calculation regarding probability stats.

That’s not a knock on you necessarily. I’m sure you can do, errrrr ...., things that MM can’t do. Statistical analysis related to probability theory is not one of them.

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This isn’t about you or me. It’s about critiquing our coaching decision. I certainly would hope he’s more qualified to make football decisions than I am.

And after 2 games I can’t recall so many dumb or questionable coaching decisions. Extremely lucky we didn’t lose this game which actually didn’t have anything to do with this particular decision. It could have though.

Diehardblues said:

This isn’t about you or me. It’s about critiquing our coaching decision. I certainly would hope he’s more qualified to make football decisions than I am.

And after 2 games I can’t recall so many dumb or questionable coaching decisions. Extremely lucky we didn’t lose this game which actually didn’t have anything to do with this particular decision.

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Oh there is no doubt he is more qualified.

Just based on this thread, all things being equal (meaning the 2 point conversion fails) you would have lost the game where as we know with certainty he won the game.

MM > Diehardblues

CarolinaFathead said:

Oh there is no doubt he is more qualified.

Just based on this thread, all things being equal (meaning the 2 point conversion fails) you would have lost the game and he won the game.

MM > Diehardblues

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Yea, now you’ve made it personal. Typical internet BS. Tough guy with a keyboard. So impressive.

But I’ll never agree in this situation leaving us 2 possessions down instead of 1 was the best decision. And I’ll continue calling it out.

Diehardblues said:

Yea, now you’ve made it personal. Typical internet BS. Tough guy with a keyboard. So impressive.

But I’ll never agree in this situation leaving us 2 possessions down instead of 1 was the best decision.

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Lol no it doesn’t... this is going to get into more math...

Firstly, 8 points down is only a one possession game 50% of the time given that 2 point conversions fail at a 50% rate.

Secondly, being 7 points down is a one possession game 95+% of the time since XP convert at a much higher percentage.

So it’s statistically not even close as to which you would rather be down. It’s seven all day every day. That’s why you go for two as soon as you can so you KNOW the number of possessions you need as soon as possible AND the scoring chance percentages associated with those possessions.

Thirdly, given that 2 point conversions fail at 50% and the time of the game you attempt them is basically irrelevant in regards to this statical fact, it’s best to know as soon as possible if you’re going to fail so that you KNOW WITH CERTAINTY the number of actual possessions you need to win with the MOST game time left as possible.

Doing what you want to do leaves a team with massive uncertainty regarding the number of possessions they need with the added humongous problem that if you fail the 2 point conversion after waiting till the latest possible stage of the game to attempt it, at which point you now know you need another possession, you haven’t left yourself any chance to get another possession to win the game.

this really isnt that hard dude. Seriously...

you calling him stupid for this decision is ironic beyond words to describe lol

CarolinaFathead said:

Lol no it doesn’t... this is going to get into more math...

Firstly, 8 points down is only a one possession game 50% of the time given that 2 point conversions fail at a 50% rate.

Secondly, being 7 points down is a one possession game 95+% of the time since XP convert at a much higher percentage.

So it’s statistically not even close as to which you would rather be down. It’s seven all day every day. That’s why you go for two as soon as you can so you KNOW the number of possessions you need as soon as possible.

Thirdly, given that 2 point conversions fail at 50% and the time of the game you attempt them is basically irrelevant in regards to this statical fact, it’s best to know as soon as possible if you’re going to fail so that you KNOW WITH CERTAINTY the number of actual possessions you need to win with the MOST game time left as possible.

Doing what you want to do leaves a team with massive uncertainty regarding the number of possessions they need with the added humongous problem that if you fail the 2 point conversion after waiting till the latest possible stage of the game to attempt it, at which point you now know you need another possession, you haven’t left yourself any chance to get another possession to win the game.

this really isnt that hard dude. Seriously...

you calling him stupid for this decision is ironic beyond words to describe lol

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It doesn’t leave uncertainty. You know still might need two more possessions. But it allows the possibility of only needing one. Down by 9 takes out that scenario.

Going for 2 on this 1st TD only is a good decision if it works. But I’d question it’s worth the risk especially if you don’t have opportunity for two more possessions.

Diehardblues said:

It doesn’t leave uncertainty. You know still might need two more possessions. But it allows the possibility of only needing one. Down by 9 takes out that scenario.

Going for 2 on this 1st TD only is a good decision if it works. But I’d question it’s worth the risk especially if you don’t have opportunity for two more possessions.

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Going for two at any point is only valuable if it works lmao.

What you want is time to recover IF you fail.

Your proposed strategy, gives you none and you lose.

MM’s gave him 4:57 and he won.

case closed.

Diehardblues said:

Yea, now you’ve made it personal. Typical internet BS. Tough guy with a keyboard. So impressive.

But I’ll never agree in this situation leaving us 2 possessions down instead of 1 was the best decision. And I’ll continue calling it out.

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You are free to continue to call the decision out, no one is stopping you, however you will continue to be wrong, just as you are wrong about it being only a one possession game. I know you said the math doesn’t matter, but your choice produces a 1 possession game 50% of the time, the other 50% of the time it becomes a two possession game when you fail the 2 pt conversion. I think this is where the disconnect is.

CarolinaFathead said:

lol yes it does.

If Dallas did what you wanted them to do and failed the 2 point conversion with little to no time on the clock they lose.

MM’s decision afforded him the luxury of failing and still winning the game.

You would lose if you were the coach and waited to do the 2 point conversion till the last possible second and subsequently failed.

MM afforded himself the option of failing the conversion and still winning which means his strategy was better than yours.

you know, since they ACTUALLY WON the game lol

MM is definitely smarter than you.

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CarolinaFathead said:

It’s not personal saying MM is smarter than you since he sees this very simple mathematical calculation regarding probability stats.

That’s not a knock on you necessarily. I’m sure you can do, errrrr ...., things that MM can’t do. Statistical analysis related to probability theory is not one of them.

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I have been on this board since 2004. As a relatively new member I will say welcome, you have offered a lot of really good logical post, and please continue. It is a great board for up to date information and good conversation.

You tried, but I think your pissing in the wind. You have to remember that half the people in the world have below average intelligence. There are a lot of people on this forum smarter than me and probably you. Try to put a value on your time and don't waste it here on the lower half..

CarolinaFathead said:

Going for two at any point is only valuable if it works lmao.

What you want is time to recover IF you fail.

Your proposed strategy, gives you none and you lose.

MM’s gave him 4:57 and he won.

case closed.

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But we shouldn’t have won. Your argument predicates on the fact we won.

My argument doesn’t have anything to with whether we won or not. It didn’t place us in a better position to extend the game.

Trajan said:

You are free to continue to call the decision out, no one is stopping you, however you will continue to be wrong, just as you are wrong about it being only a one possession game. I know you said the math doesn’t matter, but your choice produces a 1 possession game 50% of the time, the other 50% of the time it becomes a two possession game when you fail the 2 pt conversion. I think this is where the disconnect is.

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I fully understand the percentage. And I still believe it’s more favorable( not mathematically) to convert on 2nd TD.

It’s all about reducing the potential need for only 1 possession to extend the game instead of 2.

Riverboat Mike is playing to win the game not tie or extend the game. I don’t believe it’s generally a good strategy.

Diehardblues said:

I fully understand the percentage. And I still believe it’s more favorable( not mathematically) to convert on 2nd TD.

It’s all about reducing the potential need for only 1 possession to extend the game instead of 2.

Riverboat Mike is playing to win the game not tie or extend the game. I don’t believe it’s generally a good strategy.

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The potential for one possession is ALWAYS going to be 50%.

it’s 50% with 5 seconds left in the game or 4:57.

again, all things being equal (meaning the two point conversion fails on Sunday no matter when we attempt it) its better to fail with 4:57 on the clock versus :05 on the clock because you have time for things to break you way and still win the game which is what happened. You can call it luck all you want but MM put the team in the position to take advantage of a lucky break because he went for 2 at 4:57.

this is exactly why MM did what he did.