Something doesn't add up (the point spread vs Washington)

JBS · Oct 1, 2022

JohnsKey19 said:
2.5-3.5 seems right to me. This is an even ballgame. Dallas gets the extra points playing at home.

Big difference between 2.5 and 3.5. and home field isn’t worth anything close to 3.5 points

JBS · Oct 1, 2022

conner01 said:
I don’t get why fans don’t get this
The spread is to keep as close to even betting on both teams so the house can’t lose

this is nothing but theoretical. Very seldom are games bet anywhere close to 50/50 and vegas doesn’t care

Pompey-Cowboy · Oct 1, 2022

With our D, to cover a 3 point spread we may only need to score 4 points.

shabazz · Oct 1, 2022

McMicah said:
Thanks! Been reading posts for years, and finally decided to join the fray.

Always a pleasure to have one more masochist in the crew....

morat1959 · Oct 1, 2022

Shane612 said:
Maybe the odds-makers still don't trust the cowboys?
Or anything more than a 7 point win is relatively difficult to predict in the NFL...because of parity.

Do you trust them? I don’t…ever!

JohnsKey19 · Oct 1, 2022

JBS said:
Big difference between 2.5 and 3.5. and home field isn’t worth anything close to 3.5 points

Yeah my point was I've seen the line fluctuate between 2.5-3.5 on different sites throughout the week. Most have it at Dallas-3 today. As far as home field, they old adage is home field is worth approximately 3 points, actually a little less at 2.8. So yeah my numbers before were not exact,

JBS · Oct 1, 2022

JohnsKey19 said:
Yeah my point was I've seen the line fluctuate between 2.5-3.5 on different sites throughout the week. Most have it at Dallas-3 today. As far as home field, they old adage is home field is worth approximately 3 points, actually a little less at 2.8. So yeah my numbers before were not exact,

Even 2.8 is too much. Especially for Dallas. Dallas is on the lower end of the spectrum. Probably 1.5

Chuck 54 · Oct 1, 2022

3.5 points is a lot when you consider the Commanders moved the ball a lot this year and they commit to the short passing game. It’s a lot when you consider our offense hasn’t scored more than 2 TDs in a game yet. Divisional game…it will be a dogfight unless we find a way to score more points. I don’t believe for a second that we will rush Wentz as well as the Eagles did, simply because most teams make adjustments and find a way to avoid such performances back to back.

RS12 · Oct 1, 2022

CoachD said:
The line in this game is 3 1/2 wait what? You mean to tell me as well as the Cowboys have played and how poorly the "Commanders" looked last week that the line in this game is all of 3 1/2 points. Ya maybe I could see this being the line if the Cowboys were on the road but at home??? Something is very fishy here so stay tuned.

Not Fishy at all. Means the majority of the money is on the Cowboys and 3 and a half means the Cowboys need to win by more than a FG. Book makers are encouraging the public to put money on Washington. They want half the money on each side and get ten percent for booking the action. BTW this could easily be a very tight game. Beware the MNF hangover.

KJJ · Oct 1, 2022

CoachD said:
The line in this game is 3 1/2 wait what? You mean to tell me as well as the Cowboys have played and how poorly the "Commanders" looked last week that the line in this game is all of 3 1/2 points. Ya maybe I could see this being the line if the Cowboys were on the road but at home??? Something is very fishy here so stay tuned.

Don’t know what team you’ve been watching but the Cowboys haven’t looked all that impressive. The defense has looked impressive but the team as a whole hasn’t. The Cowboys only wins went down to the fourth against mediocre teams. I don’t care that Cincinnati went to the Super Bowl last season they haven’t been very good this season, they’re 1-2. Washington won a game this season against a Jacksonville team that’s won two in a row. Washington held Philly scoreless in the second half last week and the Eagles are ranked number one in offense. By the way this is the first time the Cowboys have been favored at home this season. Lol Washington has scored more points this season than the Cowboys.

Proof · Oct 1, 2022

Aerolithe_Lion said:
Commanders offense was one of the best in the league after the first 2 weeks, so the point spread indicates they don’t expect Washington to play like they did against the lone undefeated team every week

highest scoring* not best. and shutup. and go away.

Proof · Oct 1, 2022

JBS said:
this is nothing but theoretical. Very seldom are games bet anywhere close to 50/50 and vegas doesn’t care

As bets are taken on a matchup throughout the week, sportsbooks often reduce the juice on one team so the line is, say, -105, which gives bettors the chance to win $100 by risking less money. Sportsbooks might also increase the juice if more action is going to a particular team, which forces bettors to risk more money to win $100 on the point spread.

Sportsbooks raise or lower the juice — or increase or decrease the point spread — because their ultimate goal is to keep action on both sides balanced.

Why the point spread changes
When a point spread is perceived by bettors as accurate upon initial release, bettors will put equal action on both teams.

This is rarely the case, so sportsbooks often move the line to balance unequal early action.

Let's say the Memphis Grizzlies open as an 8.5-point underdog against the Utah Jazz, but a large number of bettors think Memphis will beat that spread.

If more money goes to Memphis early on, the sportsbook might adjust the line, either by raising the juice to -120 or greater, or by shifting the point spread to eight points.

As the spread becomes smaller, bettors eventually will find Utah a more attractive bet and begin placing more money on the Jazz, which balances out the action.

Sharp money, or money wagered by professional bettors, will often shift the point spread, too.

JBS · Oct 1, 2022

Proof said:
As bets are taken on a matchup throughout the week, sportsbooks often reduce the juice on one team so the line is, say, -105, which gives bettors the chance to win $100 by risking less money. Sportsbooks might also increase the juice if more action is going to a particular team, which forces bettors to risk more money to win $100 on the point spread.

Sportsbooks raise or lower the juice — or increase or decrease the point spread — because their ultimate goal is to keep action on both sides balanced.

Why the point spread changes
When a point spread is perceived by bettors as accurate upon initial release, bettors will put equal action on both teams.

This is rarely the case, so sportsbooks often move the line to balance unequal early action.

Let's say the Memphis Grizzlies open as an 8.5-point underdog against the Utah Jazz, but a large number of bettors think Memphis will beat that spread.

If more money goes to Memphis early on, the sportsbook might adjust the line, either by raising the juice to -120 or greater, or by shifting the point spread to eight points.

As the spread becomes smaller, bettors eventually will find Utah a more attractive bet and begin placing more money on the Jazz, which balances out the action.

Sharp money, or money wagered by professional bettors, will often shift the point spread, too.

yes this is all theoretical. It doesn’t actually work this way..normally

edit*** and I’m not referencing the line moving. I’m talking about the public changing their position based on reduced juice / line movement.

OGCowboy · Oct 1, 2022

There’s Vegas and then the “bookie”....the dude at the bar with a spread sheet and a phone #...
Vegas lives on point spreads and ESPECIALLY exotic wagering (suck bet)......
The “bookie” lives on the juice.....

Diehardblues · Oct 1, 2022

CoachD said:
The line in this game is 3 1/2 wait what? You mean to tell me as well as the Cowboys have played and how poorly the "Commanders" looked last week that the line in this game is all of 3 1/2 points. Ya maybe I could see this being the line if the Cowboys were on the road but at home??? Something is very fishy here so stay tuned.

It’s actually the first time the Cowboys have been favored in a game this year.

With our starting QB out we aren’t looked upon as the same team or at full strength , hence the line.

ESisback · Oct 1, 2022

Aerolithe_Lion said:
Commanders offense was one of the best in the league after the first 2 weeks, so the point spread indicates they don’t expect Washington to play like they did against the lone undefeated team every week

I understand you’re excited, and proud of your team, but being undefeated after 2 or 3 games is a little bit of an overreaction.

bigE79 · Oct 1, 2022

McMicah said:
I think that’s the factor any time there’s a backup qb in the mix on any team. Too many unknowns for actuarial science guys when you don’t have a big sample size, you go conservative. It’s also a division game, so that can factor.

I’m sure the Bills and Bucs and Chiefs were all wondering about their spreads last week . Just gotta go out there and show who we are.

Good post... welcome to the cowboy zoo, we're all animals here...lol

conner01 · Oct 1, 2022

Veg

JBS said:
this is nothing but theoretical. Very seldom are games bet anywhere close to 50/50 and vegas doesn’t care

Vegas does care
If it’s around 50/50 they can’t lose
They have to cover loses
They don’t care about winning as much as not losing because that’s how they make money from the juice

Romo_To_Dez · Oct 1, 2022

The Cowboys haven't been blowing anyone out and despite the amount of people getting on the Cooper Rush hype train, Vegas knows that the Cowboys last 2 games were close and came down to the fourth quarter and the Cowboys have had to rely on the defense to keep the games low scoring enough to give Cooper Rush a chance to do enough in the 4th quarter to win the Cowboys last two games.

Maxmadden · Oct 1, 2022

Proof said:
highest scoring* not best. and shutup. and go away.

Not very hospitable and very turd like. He is only offering information.

Something doesn't add up (the point spread vs Washington)

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