We've all seen his highlights and his speed in undeniable, but why hasn't he been more productive at the NFL level? It's easy to dismiss that he wasn't used properly, the Ram's previous regime wasn't very good and he's had bad to mediocre QBs, and that's partly true. Why would McVay be willing to lose a player with that type ability for a mere 6th rd pick? Some just dismiss it as his injury put him behind in the off season and TC and when he was finally healthy, didn't want to mess with team chemistry. That may be partly true, but why would he want to get rid of him if he's truly as electric as many think he can be? I'm sure he's watched every single snap Tavon had as a Ram, so what did he see?
It's ironic that the Rams signed Lance Dunbar, in effect, to take over many of Austin's duties on offense and we look at Austin to fill the once Dunbar duties for us. Austin was beat out by rookie WR Kupp (4.6/40yd) and Kupp while he flashed at some points was also among league leaders in drops and struggled during stretches of the season. Austin lost his PR duties, due to reoccurring fumbling issues, to another rookie P. Cooper (4.6/40yd) who went on to the Pro Bowl. Watkins and Woods both missed games with injuries and yet Austin did not make an impact during their absences.
I've tried looking for some answers. First, Austin has average to below average hands, he's been among league leaders in drops. Some of it is his size, small hands and some is technique, let's the ball get into his body. He is not a great route runner and does struggle to get separation which sounds crazy with his speed, but with the exception of Go routes etc., routes are not run at top speed. Again some of his route running issues are not truly his own fault, much is because of his size. He struggles to get off the line against press coverage and gets bumped and bodied off routes across the field because of his small frame. He's a small target, smaller catch radius and will get bullied and bodied on passes. Here's some dubious stats
Austin is the first WR in NFL history to catch at least 13 passes and not get at least 50yds. (2017) His longest catch went for just 13 yards, while he had three go for negative yardage.
Since 2000, among 249 WRs with at least 200 career targets, Austin ranks dead last yds/ target average. 249th out of 249 is not very dynamic or electric.
These stats from 2016. Case Keenum and Jared Goff averaged a passer rating of 56.1 when targeting Tavon Austin. When targeting all other Rams receivers, they averaged a passer rating of 75.1.
Kenny Britt saw only 8 more targets than Austin, but totaled 493 more yards, 2 more touchdowns, and 5 fewer dropped passes. Keenum and Goff combined to average a passer rating of 96.2 when targeting Britt. Yes, the legendary Kenny Britt.
Among all 89 wide receivers with at least 50 targets, Austin ranked worst in yards per target average, 2nd worst in WR rating (passer rating when targeted), 8th worst in drop rate (percentage of catchable targets dropped), and 14th worst in yards per route run.
Talking with several Rams fans, all like Austin and want him to do well, the guy is likable and a team player. One frustration many expressed, apart from what's been mentioned, is his habit of dancing around or running backwards trying to make something happen and instead getting negative yards or giving up yards he had gained.
Austin is a good runner with the ball. Among all players with at least 125 carries since 2013, Austin leads in yards per carry average (6.7). Many of those rushes are of the sweeps, reverses, etc. variety. He can be a great gadget player and there can be creative ways to get him the ball, but he does have his limitations. He's a slightly better Lucky Whitehead, with better name recognition.
It will be up to Linehan to be creative, but hopefully won't force the issue hoping to make it work. Hopefully we'll see Linehan get out of some of his comfort zone, maybe some bunch formations, having both Zeke and Tavon in the back field together at times, etc. I'm not trying to say Tavon sucks, but there are more reasons than just a bad Ram's team to explain why Tavon hasn't had more success in the NFL. You have to look past the speed and look at the total package and what he brings and doesn't bring to the table.. It's worth the risk for a 6th rd pick, just be realistic about the expectations.
