Playoff Scenarios

JD_KaPow · Dec 10, 2018

I haven't seen everything captured in one place, so...

This is what it takes for the Cowboys to end up with each playoff position. Please correct any errors I may have made.

1 Seed
DAL wins out AND NO loses out AND LAR loses out AND CHI loses two games

2 Seed
DAL does not win the 1 seed AND:

(DAL wins out AND NO loses out AND CHI loses two games) OR
(DAL wins out AND LAR loses out AND CHI loses two games) OR
(DAL wins out AND NO loses out AND LAR loses out)

3 Seed
DAL does not win the 1 or the 2 seed AND:

(DAL wins out AND CHI loses two games) OR
(DAL wins 2 games and CHI loses out) OR
(DAL wins out AND NO loses out) OR
(DAL wins out AND LAR loses out)

4 Seed
DAL does not win the 1, 2 or 3 seed AND:

DAL wins a game OR
(PHI loses a game AND WAS loses a game)

5 or 6 Seed
Dallas does not win the division (meaning, among other things, that they lose out), AND a whole bunch of teams lose a whole bunch of games. Both seeds are possible, though.

No Playoffs
Dallas loses out AND PHI or WAS wins out AND a whole bunch of teams DON'T lose a whole bunch of games.

The Quest for Six · Dec 10, 2018

We'll know in three weeks, why wrack your brain over it now!

GMO415 · Dec 10, 2018

ClintDagger · Dec 10, 2018

If Dallas and Chicago both go 11-5, both would be 9-3 in the conference. So how does the tiebreaker work from there?

CanadianCowboysFan · Dec 10, 2018

we know only one of Phi Wash can win out as they play each other

win a game and we are in, all I care about.

JD_KaPow · Dec 10, 2018

ClintDagger said:
If Dallas and Chicago both go 11-5, both would be 9-3 in the conference. So how does the tiebreaker work from there?

Good question. The ESPN playoff machine always has them ahead of us when tied, but it seems the next tiebreaker is common opponents, where we would both end up 4-1, which would bring it to strength of victory, and I'm not going to try to figure out how that works out. So I'm trusting the machine on that one.

Kaiser · Dec 10, 2018

My thing about this is that a lot of teams that get the first round bye come out and play flat for a quarter or so when they do have their first playoff game. You get the rest, but its a double edged sword to have the week off for the bye. Dallas totally did that in the 2016 playoff loss to the Packers.

jsb357 · Dec 10, 2018

Two Clubs

Head-to-head (best won-lost-tied percentage in games between the clubs)
Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the division
Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games
Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference
Strength of victory
Strength of schedule
Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed
Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed
Best net points in common games
Best net points in all games
Best net touchdowns in all games
Coin toss

ClintDagger · Dec 10, 2018

JD_KaPow said:
Good question. The ESPN playoff machine always has them ahead of us when tied, but it seems the next tiebreaker is common opponents, where we would both end up 4-1, which would bring it to strength of victory, and I'm not going to try to figure out how that works out. So I'm trusting the machine on that one.

Strength of victory mean margin? If so, there’s no way we win that. We win nail biters and the Bears win about half their games in blowouts.

JD_KaPow · Dec 10, 2018

jsb357 said:
Two Clubs

Head-to-head (best won-lost-tied percentage in games between the clubs)

Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the division

Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games

Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference

Strength of victory

Strength of schedule

Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed

Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed

Best net points in common games

Best net points in all games

Best net touchdowns in all games

Coin toss

That's for breaking ties within the division. For breaking ties within the conference (so, for determining seeding between division winners), it's:

Two Clubs

Head-to-head, if applicable
Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference
Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games, minimum of four
Strength of victory
Strength of schedule
Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed
Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed
Best net points in conference games
Best net points in all games
Best net touchdowns in all games
Coin toss

JD_KaPow · Dec 10, 2018

ClintDagger said:
Strength of victory mean margin? If so, there’s no way we win that. We win nail biters and the Bears win about half their games in blowouts.

No, it's the record of all the teams you've beaten.

jsb357 · Dec 10, 2018

JD_KaPow said:
That's for breaking ties within the division.

Verdict · Dec 10, 2018

CanadianCowboysFan said:
we know only one of Phi Wash can win out as they play each other

win a game and we are in, all I care about.

Well theoretically the loser of that game would be eliminated by definition, but the other would not.

Reverend Conehead · Dec 10, 2018

A play off victory would be really, really nice, especially since at the start of the season I predicted a losing record. I LOVE being wrong if I think the team is not going to do well. If the team could get to the NFC Championship game, I would be ecstatic.

ClintDagger · Dec 10, 2018

JD_KaPow said:
No, it's the record of all the teams you've beaten.

Ah, that rings a bell. Thanks.

gmoney112 · Dec 10, 2018

I've pretty much resigned to playing Seattle in the first round, especially if they win tonight.

They still play the 49ers and Cardinals.

CanadianCowboysFan · Dec 10, 2018

Verdict said:
Well theoretically the loser of that game would be eliminated by definition, but the other would not.

a tie could put both ahead

Hoov · Dec 10, 2018

gmoney112 said:
I've pretty much resigned to playing Seattle in the first round, especially if they win tonight.

They still play the 49ers and Cardinals.

I'm thinking this is a given unless something crazy happens

JD_KaPow · Dec 10, 2018

CanadianCowboysFan said:
a tie could put both ahead

That's correct. There's a scenario where DAL finishes 8-8 and WAS and PHI both finish 8-7-1. In that scenario, it's actually very likely that they both make the playoffs (and DAL of course misses out).

Oh, by the way? It's not going to happen.

Creeper · Dec 10, 2018

I am pretty sure Philly is going to lose to the Rams this week but the more interesting game is the Commanders and disappointing Jaguars. The Jags absolutely stink this year. They look like they quit on the season already. This could be a 0-0 tie even after overtime.

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